I liked DanL53's post. I will expand on his thoughts, and offer my two additional X factors at the end.
Less than a year ago, Jok was the knucklehead who couldn't drive a moped in downtown Iowa City without getting arrested. TWICE. He will improve in his last two years, but hanging too high of hopes on him is fools gold. Coach had 2 reasons for putting the 15/16 point a game scorer quote in the paper. 1) He was challenging and motivating Peter to have a great off season with an aspiration goal. 2) Coach also has to justify choosing Jok over Jeremy Morgan in 2012/13. Morgan was the more complete player (still is). Iowa chose Jok's upside. The clock is ticking on that upside to reveal itself.
Jok could be a 15 point a game scorer his senior year. Iowa will be looking for that with Uthoff's departure. I would posit it's not even in Iowa's best interest that he does, because that means he's getting 20 shots a game in 2016/17, and even with the quicker shot clock, that indicates the last two recruiting classes aren't progressing.
Gesell will be the team captain. If he isn't wearing an arm wrap on his right elbow this season, you can expect better shooting out of him, and from longer range. You'll remember he was always stepping in and knocking down 17 - 19 footers because he couldn't sling it from 20 ft., 9 in. Ironically, rest, instead of increased shooting time, is the key.
Yes, the seniors should all have their best statistical seasons, ever, but the per game average increase won't be off the charts, eye popping. An extra assist, 1 more rebound, a couple points. The cumulative effect will be positive.
Clemmons is a mature, steady influence who can defend. He made the biggest play in the biggest win of the season when he took the charge on All American Marcus Paige. His shot is improving, as the Gonzaga game showed. I'm sensing a Mont'er Glasper like senior offensive season from Clemmons. Glasper was a reliable 3 point shooter his last year.
Style of Play can't be underestimated. The shot clock change is going to rock the game, especially early. Staff's all over the country are trying to anticipate the impact. Rebounding becomes even more paramount. More shots means more misses. Iowa's lack of size doesn't have to be a problem. Less time for opponents to create offensive sets could mean less shots in the paint. Longer shots = longer rebounds. Running down longer rebounds on both ends of the floor will be key. Quickness and court awareness could be rewarded as much as size and bulk.
The seniors will be the glue that gets this team in the top half of the league. The league will be brutal. Iowa should be a lock to be in the top half, but, in a 14 team league, that could be 7th. (Also, Nebraska was a top half lock at this time, last year).
Whether this team regresses to the NIT, or makes it 3 straight NCAA appearances depends upon the bench. It's a lot of pressure to put on the newbies, but, it's a fact. Nobody knows how this is going to go. NOBODY.
If Iowa has an NCAA appearance locked up before the conference tourney, the bench did great.
If Iowa is a surefire NIT team, Freshmen be Freshmen.
Most likely, Iowa's first conference tourney game will be on Day 2. Another early exit won't be good. A win means the newbies passed their final.
Two things appear to be in Iowa's favor regarding the likelihood of bench success.
1) Shear numbers. Throw 8 spaghetti noodles on the wall, and I like the chances that 2 or 3 will stick.
2) Iowa's X factor will be impossible to scout. This jigsaw will produce surprises every game. Remember Uhl's baseline reverse layup against Ohio State? Who saw that coming? Thad Matta didn't!!!!
http://www.blackheartgoldpants.com/2015/1/17/7629539/video-watch-dom-uhls-excellent-reverse-layup
This is going to be an interesting season.
Every child that's physically capable learns to walk.
Uhl, Ellingson, Baer and the class of 2015 will eventually walk.
If they are 6 to 9 month walkers, Iowa is a national surprise.
If they are 9 to 12 month walkers, and the upperclassmen produce, all is well.
If they are collectively slow to walk, Fran's annual progress stalls.
My first X FACTOR is something no Hawkeye can control.
THE BIG TEN SCHEDULE. Who plays who, where, and in what order will determine a lot. The home and homes and one game onlys have been announced, but the schedule doesn't come out until August. A lot of road games early, like Minnesota had last year, would be harrowing.
The biggest X FACTOR will be TEAM CHEMISTRY.
2013/14 didn't have it, hence 7 losses in its last 8.
2014/15 rallied around Gabe and the death of his father.
How the seniors and Jok welcome, motivate, encourage, get and demand ultimate performance from their virgin teammates will be the key to how far the Hawks fly in 2015/16. How well the newbies take instruction, and are physically/mentally/emotionally capable of accepting expanded and limited roles will make all the difference.