Over/Under: Completion Percentage of C.J. Beathard

[PHXIowaClub]

Beathard was 52 for 92 last year, which is 56.5%. It's expected that his completion percentage will go up with more experience and having more of a rhythm being the full time starter.

Jake Rudock had a 61.7% last year, for what it's worth.

 

[theIowaHawk]

Under, but not by much, maybe 53-55%, also won't affect the overall play much. I have a feeling the CJ fans will get what they've been screaming for: long bombs...but often incomplete.

 

[Kurt Warner]

Cj > jake, as you will finally see. He's a gamer.

 

[ichawk24]

I'd put the line at 60. I'll predict 58 or 59. High yards per completion.

 

[dawgs_04]

Under, but more YPA which might lessen the other team from stacking the box so much

 

[David1979]

I think he tops 60. He is getting a whole spring, summer and fall to work with the first team.

 

[Pepperman]

Agree with dawgs_04. The YPA is what matters, and what will loosen up a defense. Of course, this all assumes GD and KF don't talk CJB into throwing 2-yard outs at every opportunity. If the defense actually has to worry about deep (even intermediate) passes, the running game will be a lot better and the loss of two NFL tackles might not matter as much as we all think. On the other hand, if CJB gets drilled a lot and ends up injured, the season is probably down the drain.

 

[MoneyintheBanks]

I think there will be some growing pains, but I can realistically see him being in the top 6 QB's in the BIG behind the 3 from Ohio State, Cook, and Hack from PSU.

He's got all the tools to be very successful but lack of experience from himself and the receivers will prove challenging at first. With our emphasis on the shorter, quicker passes, i expect him right now to surpass the 61.7% mark, but by a slim margin. Hopefully he stays healthy, because he is a gamer.

 

[theIowaHawk]

I think there will be some growing pains, but I can realistically see him being in the top 6 QB's in the BIG behind the 3 from Ohio State, Cook, and Hack from PSU.

He's got all the tools to be very successful but lack of experience from himself and the receivers will prove challenging at first. With our emphasis on the shorter, quicker passes, i expect him right now to surpass the 61.7% mark, but by a slim margin. Hopefully he stays healthy, because he is a gamer.

So you think he is more accurate than JR?

 

[iowalaw]

Jake's completion percentage was largely a result of his unwillingness to throw the ball more than 3 yards down the field or wing a ball into a tight spot. CJ's completion percentage will be lower, but his yards per reception and attempt will be much much higher.

 

[theIowaHawk]

Just for comparo sake, JR's YPA was 7 last year, just a tick higher than C JB. We can only hope he is able to sling it this year. TCU's Boykin was just under 8 YPA last year, up a full yard from previous years.

 

[David1979]

I don't agree that his completion percentage will be much lower than Rudock's. Rudock only had a 61% completion percentage as a junior. Beathard can definitely match that. It's not like Rudock was some amazingly accurate QB and let's not forget Beathard will have plenty of short passes in Davis's offense. But the quick passes will get more yards because the ball gets there at twice the speed. Beathard was 56% as a Junior back up who didn't get the same reps as a first teamer.
In addition, Tennessee probably had the best defense that iowa faced all year and he had a 56% completion rate. I think the Purdue game was an outlier for him as it was his first start and there were a crazy amount of drops and missed routes by WRs.

 

[theIowaHawk]

Ok, so throw out all of the previous evidence about Beathard, then throw out all of the HR opinions that the one thing Jake had on him was accuracy. And where do you arrive? At, or better, completion percentage....with a "worse offense" according to many.

 

[cedarvalleykid14]

Completion percentage, like most statistics, is meaningless on its own. Remember when Iowa beat Indiana 42-28 and Stanzi threw 5 INTs? Remember all the games Iowa lost and threw nary a single INT? Just one little example.

CJB has the talent to light up the scoreboard against any opponent on Iowa's schedule. He could complete 45% and I wouldn't care if it were the 45% that led Iowa to 12-0. Ya throw the ball down the field, the completion percentage drops, but the winning percentage goes up. I'll take some of that.

 

[theIowaHawk]

They aren't meaningless, even on their own. Sure they don't paint an entire picture, especially not in one game, but they do over time, like over a season. To think otherwise is ignorant.

That game was 42-24 and Stanzi was 50%, largely because of those 5 interceptions. If he had completed more passes, he would have thrown less interceptions. Stanzi didn't win that game himself.

But it was a fun, fun game.

 

[cedarvalleykid14]

To think you can judge a QB's effectiveness solely on the basis of a season's completion percentage is ignorant. See JR for one example. And really, is it necessary to use disparaging terms to express your disagreement? No, it's not necessary, but Donald Trump would be proud of ya.

 

[MoneyintheBanks]

So you think he is more accurate than JR?

I think he has all the tools to be, yes.

 

[Pepperman]

So you think he is more accurate than JR?

There's really no way to measure that unless they both throw the same passes at the same time. Like in a QB challenge type of situation. I think JR put touch on his short passes and Beathard put touch on his long passes.

I would say JR was the more conservative of the two, and would pass on a "chance" for a "sure". The coach(es), but I think head coach mostly, valued that and wanted to play JR for it.

I am on record over and over here that CJB is the better QB of the two, and I am glad he is the man now. I think it will loosen up defenses and make (wow, can't believe I'm saying this) a Greg Davis offense look decent.

 

[theIowaHawk]

To think you can judge a QB's effectiveness solely on the basis of a season's completion percentage is ignorant. See JR for one example. And really, is it necessary to use disparaging terms to express your disagreement? No, it's not necessary, but Donald Trump would be proud of ya.

I presume this is to me, which is strange because I made no claim even resembling what you state above.

 

[bagdropper]

Upper 50's, better YPA. More picks. I think the running game will be our chief benefit of JR playing.

I also believe CJ misses whole games this year because of getting crushed standing his ground.

Iowa's gonna need 2 QB's, folks. This is why losing Rudock hurts. Wiegers better be game ready.

 

[The Sleeping Dog]

He looks wild and makes some terrible misses but....it's not like Rudock was hitting down field receivers with regularity.

While its hard to imagine the offense being worse it seems that we haven't really upgraded at any position except, maybe, QB. Even if CJB is better will he be game changing better?

 

[soybean]

I think CJ will remind us of Ricky Stanzi this year, both the good and the bad.

 

[theIowaHawk]

I think CJ will remind us of Ricky Stanzi this year, both the good and the bad.

Awesome.

 

[SWIowahawks]

Sorry fellas, CJ will check down just as much as Rudock did. As evidenced by his playing time last year. I'm going over.

 

[David1979]

I don't get the where the idea that Beathard is wild. He takes more downfield shots and throws it into tight spots sometimes but that's because he has the ability to do that. Look at the Pitt game. He only had one incomplete pass. The Purdue game the completion percentage is skewed because there were a ton of drops. I think at least 7 official ones if I remember correctly which would have out his completion percentage a lot higher and he would have ended the year above 60%.

After rewatching some of the games from last year Rudock was absolutely horrible at seeing the field. There were times he didn't look at more than one receiver when he had a guy wide open if he just would have went through progressions. Rudock was so quick to go with the underneath route that he didn't even look at other guys at times and he was so scared in the pocket that he would feel slight pressure and would stop looking downfield and try to run which usually ended up going no where. In the limited time Beathard got he showed much better pocket presence and kept his eyes downfield.

 

[Phenomenally Frantastic]

Jake Rudock had a 61.7% last year, for what it's worth.

with what a 95% completion for throws under 3 yards and behind the line of scrimmage? this is why stats are so misleading.

Jake had a 75.6% completion percentage in the UNI game with a 6.1 YPA average. that's six, point, one.

Is anyone going to sit here and argue Jake had a GOOD game against UNI last season?

the opposing QB threw for 130 more yards on 14 less completions. think about that for a second.

if Chuck Long completed 31 passes against UNI how many yards do you think he would have had? or Banks??

 

[Kurt Warner]

Sorry fellas, CJ will check down just as much as Rudock did. As evidenced by his playing time last year. I'm going over.

Oh good God I hope you're wrong

 

[NomisHawk]

Jake's completion percentage was largely a result of his unwillingness to throw the ball more than 3 yards down the field or wing a ball into a tight spot. CJ's completion percentage will be lower, but his yards per reception and attempt will be much much higher.

Yes, but Jake was much more likely to throw the ball away rather than pull it down and run, as CJ likes to do. Especially that stretch of the season where Rudock was iffy on his knee. I think that CJB will end up right aroun the 59-62%. Hopefully because we won't be forced to through as much as we did last year because our run games was anemic at time and we were behind so much.

 

[jdv77]

Under. I'll go with Soybean on the Stanzi comparison. I'll put him at 58% next year. Stanzi didn't break 60% until his senior year as a starter.

 

[PHXIowaClub]

2016 numbers

NAME CMP ATT YDS CMP% YDS/A TD INT RAT
C.J. Beathard 223 362 2809 61.6 7.76 17 5 139.5

Looks like the line was set perfectly.

 

[Phenomenally Frantastic]

Sorry fellas, CJ will check down just as much as Rudock did. As evidenced by his playing time last year. I'm going over.

you were saying?

did anyone notice a check down or stacking the box problem in 2015?

Nah me neither.

 

[PHXIowaClub]

So what will CJ's numbers look like this season?

I will say: 270/394 for 3150 yards, 68.5%, 32 TD 5 INT

Probably a little high but I love his potential WHEN he stays healthy.

 

[Phenomenally Frantastic]

2016 numbers

NAME CMP ATT YDS CMP% YDS/A TD INT RAT
C.J. Beathard 223 362 2809 61.6 7.76 17 5 139.5

Looks like the line was set perfectly.

CJ also played injured in 11 games. He really struggled in the Maryland game particularly while limping around with his accuracy.

Can't wait to see what a healthy CJ has in store for us.