Seeds at Nationals…..
- Thread starter bammhawk1
- Start date
125 3rd or 4th
133 10-15 range
141 3rd or 4th
149 10-12 range
157 6-8 range
165 6 seed
174 6-8 range
184
197 6-8 range
285 20ish
133 10-15 range
141 3rd or 4th
149 10-12 range
157 6-8 range
165 6 seed
174 6-8 range
184
197 6-8 range
285 20ish
Pretty spot on. My very similar guesses.
25 4
33 15
41 4/5 (Will not seed top 3 from Big10)
49 10-12
57 6/7 (please not 8)
65 6
74 8/9 (Mess of a weight with 2 of top 3 uncertain)
97 6-8 (Hoping for 6 to avoid top 2)
Hwt 22
Good enough for 5th. Bonus time for Tom.
This would be 61.5 seeding points. That's not great. This team was a better dual team than tournament team.
Only because we used redshirts to win duals and aren't burning them for the tournament. Still think we find a way to get second at the tournament though, would be Brand's best coaching performance if we can with many so first (second/third/fourth in a couple cases) options suspended or redshirting.
I think this team does not win a trophy. I think we will have our finalist streak broken. And until we have multiple guys who are capable of winning a title next year will be the same. Lots of lower half all Americans as the ceilings.
25- If he's no brakes Drake he can win a title.
33- Looks like a hole next year
41- Block hasn't wrestled in a long time.
49- Rathjen will always be in the 6th-R12 range.
57- Someone is gonna have a massive weight cut on their hands or Siebrecht.
65- He's a large tier below either Haines or Messenbrink, whichever one decides to go 65.
74- Gabe is tough and 74 clears out a bunch unless O'toole moves up. He should be top 6.
84- Nelson has a ceiling at 84 of like 5th-6th. Angelo is a wildcard.
97- Glazier is a great story. But I think their are limitations there. He has a ceiling of 5th-6th also.
285- For Keuter to be a national title contender he needs to drop football.
25- If he's no brakes Drake he can win a title.
33- Looks like a hole next year
41- Block hasn't wrestled in a long time.
49- Rathjen will always be in the 6th-R12 range.
57- Someone is gonna have a massive weight cut on their hands or Siebrecht.
65- He's a large tier below either Haines or Messenbrink, whichever one decides to go 65.
74- Gabe is tough and 74 clears out a bunch unless O'toole moves up. He should be top 6.
84- Nelson has a ceiling at 84 of like 5th-6th. Angelo is a wildcard.
97- Glazier is a great story. But I think their are limitations there. He has a ceiling of 5th-6th also.
285- For Keuter to be a national title contender he needs to drop football.
JFC
Terrible look. I am pulling hard for our guys, but dammit this ain’t ok.
The at-large qualifiers will be announced tomorrow. Brackets are released Wednesday evening.
If we get second it would be the best coaching performance by far. And an epic collapse by Michigan, which would seem very much in character for them.
If Griffith can’t go that’s 15-18 points right there off Michigans projected total.
Man, I am REALLY nervous about Ayala's seed. Losing to DeAugustino twice has serious potential to put a major wrench in things. The seeding committee really seems to favor the head to heads more than anything else and multiple losses to the same guy, without a win is troublesome.
I could see them putting Ayala behind DeAugustino and that would really move him way down the list.
I could see them putting Ayala behind DeAugustino and that would really move him way down the list.
Drake has higher conference placement, higher win %, RPI and coaches ranking. That’s 45 right there. DeAugustino has 25 for H2H. The other 2 are QW worth 20 (can be split 20/0, 15/5 or 10/10). Common opponents is also 10. Drake will for sure get more than 5 from those categories so he will be seeded higher than DeAugustino.
There is nothing to worry about regarding 125 seeding. The parity is too close across the board. It's not like Drake can't beat Deaug, the matches have been incredibly close.
IMO 1-8 seeds are basically interchangeable and will have similar paths.
Are we certain these formulas are now 100% strictly used with no human factors? I admittedly forget about the strict formula based approach and it does seem like they did stick to it pretty close last year…
This nailed it and to be honest I'm in the same boat with Real at 141. Any seed between 3 and 6 won't make much difference for him because he can beat anyone if he is on and if he looks the same as he has the last month or two he can lose to any of the top 8 or 9 guys as well. Real and Drake will control how their tournament goes, not their seed. Some paths may be tougher than others, but they are more than capable of beating every guy at their weights. This isn't the case for the rest of the Hawks this year imo.
It’s straight from the manual. However it does say they can also use subjective criteria such as:
Bad losses
Ranked outside top 30 in RPI and/or Coaches
Conference Champion
Performance in last 5 matches
Number of injury default or MFF wins/losses
Best quality win
Wrestler availability (injured or medically unable to compete)
Has anyone gone back through the seeds after and cross checked the formulas? I would be really interested to see how close they have held to it. I get that you won't know how they decided on the exact QW allotment, but if they did hold firm to the formulas you should be able to extrapolate what they did, for the most part...
Ceiling is 2nd place, but the floor is what, 10th? NC State got 10th last year with 48 points.
It would take some in depth work because you have to compare each wrestler to the other 32 at that weight. And then with the subjective criteria these could move a little as well
Believe me, I get it. That was why I was hoping someone other than me had done it or was willing to! 😉
Edited to add: I also would be curious to know how many times there were the A beats B, B beats C, but C beats A situations and how they handled those....
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I think Wrestling Nomad does this every year on Twitter, where he runs everything through the matrix and posts the projected seeds ahead of time. If I'm remembering right, a few years ago he was extremely accurate with them, but each year since then there have been some variations from what he's calculated in the matrix vs the actual seedings.
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