Milton, a top-tier Category 5 hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico, is intensifying at breakneck speed as it churns toward the west coast of Florida. The storm is expected to make landfall Wednesday or early Thursday as a “large and powerful hurricane,” according to the National Hurricane Center. It is predicted to produce a potentially devastating ocean surge over 10 feet in some areas, including perhaps in flood-prone Tampa Bay.
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Since Sunday night, the storm’s rate of strengthening has reached
extreme levels — its intensity leaping from a Category 1 to 5. The storm’s peak winds Monday midday were up to 160 mph, a 70 mph increase in 12 hours.
The Hurricane Center described the storm’s rate of intensification as “remarkable.” The explosive development has occurred over record-warm waters in the Gulf, with the extreme warmth linked to human-caused climate change.
Milton rapidly intensifies into a category 5 hurricane. (CIRA/NOAA/NOAA)
Milton is the strongest hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico since Michael in 2018 and is poised to become even stronger until a very gradual weakening trend commences Tuesday. It is the
strongest Gulf of Mexico hurricane this late in the calendar year since at least 1966. Milton is one of only seven hurricanes on record to increase from Category 1 to 5 in 24 hours
and did so at the second-fastest rate.
Only 48 to 60 hours remain before Milton is set to arrive in Florida. Landfall now looks to be Wednesday afternoon or evening, and the storm — despite some weakening — is anticipated to remain a major hurricane with winds around 120 mph when it strikes the state’s west coast.
Moreover, Milton’s wind field will expand, meaning the storm will more efficiently be able to pile water against the coastline. The National Hurricane Center is warning of a surge of 5 to 10 feet along much of the Gulf Coast of Florida’s peninsula, with locally up to 8 to 12 feet — including in Tampa Bay.