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100% chance of recession

BrunoMars420

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Feb 14, 2016
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Bloomberg) -- A US recession is effectively certain in the next 12 months in new Bloomberg Economics model projections, a blow to President Joe Biden’s economic messaging ahead of the November midterms.
 
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Bloomberg) -- A US recession is effectively certain in the next 12 months in new Bloomberg Economics model projections, a blow to President Joe Biden’s economic messaging ahead of the November midterms.
That's like predicting the sun is going to rise in the east tomorrow because we are already in one.
 
2 quarters of negative GDP growth has been a recession for as long as I can remember.

While a recession has traditionally been defined as two back-to-back quarters of declining gross domestic product (GDP), there has been some discussion about whether the current economy can be classified the same way due to some of the abnormal factors at play, including a robust labor market.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen indicated that the economy was only “in a period of transition” during a White House press briefing on July 24. “I would be amazed if they would declare this period to be a recession, even if it happens to have two quarters of negative growth.” Yellen said, adding that the economy had rapidly grown 5.5% last year. “We have a very strong labor market. When you are creating almost 400,000 jobs a month, that is not a recession.”
 
While a recession has traditionally been defined as two back-to-back quarters of declining gross domestic product (GDP), there has been some discussion about whether the current economy can be classified the same way due to some of the abnormal factors at play, including a robust labor market.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen indicated that the economy was only “in a period of transition” during a White House press briefing on July 24. “I would be amazed if they would declare this period to be a recession, even if it happens to have two quarters of negative growth.” Yellen said, adding that the economy had rapidly grown 5.5% last year. “We have a very strong labor market. When you are creating almost 400,000 jobs a month, that is not a recession.”
Oh, totally makes sense. Just change definitions when midterms are coming up.
 

Bloomberg) -- A US recession is effectively certain in the next 12 months in new Bloomberg Economics model projections, a blow to President Joe Biden’s economic messaging ahead of the November midterms.
The Fed wanted this and their excessive rate hikes in such a short time achieved it.
 
It's Trump's fault.

There can be no blame for him without all the MAGAs hair catching on fire. He's above blame to them. Everyone who knows that Trump shares some blame in this already believe it. The rest belong to the former group mentioned.
 
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Here is the confusion, technically on a growth standard we are in recession, ask any common person if they feel like we are in a recession and they will tell you no. I haven't seen any layoffs locally or at manufacturing plants in the area. Things seem to be humming along. Now the realtors have seen a pull back, but for 2 years they had an historic run.

For earnings and higher unemployment that will likely occur in the 1st to second quarter. I think the next 6-12 weeks is actually going to be a pretty good time to be in the stock market before another pull back.
 
While a recession has traditionally been defined as two back-to-back quarters of declining gross domestic product (GDP), there has been some discussion about whether the current economy can be classified the same way due to some of the abnormal factors at play, including a robust labor market.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen indicated that the economy was only “in a period of transition” during a White House press briefing on July 24. “I would be amazed if they would declare this period to be a recession, even if it happens to have two quarters of negative growth.” Yellen said, adding that the economy had rapidly grown 5.5% last year. “We have a very strong labor market. When you are creating almost 400,000 jobs a month, that is not a recession.”
This is not Tennessee ... you can't tear down the goal posts and move them on definitions.
 
This is not Tennessee ... you can't tear down the goal posts and move them on definitions.
I mean, if you want to call it a recession to make yourself feel better - go for it! I get it ... politics.

From a pure economic standpoint, it's hard to call something a recession when an economy is gaining jobs at a high level. You are correct that this does meet the minimum standard for a recession with the GDP measurement. It's an interesting discussion from an economics standpoint but to have true dialogue you need to remove the political part of it.
 
This is not Tennessee ... you can't tear down the goal posts and move them on definitions.
Do you personally feel the effects of this recession? Do you know of anyone that is losing their jobs or afraid of losing their jobs? Are we really in a recession if companies had monster growth due to excess money supply from stimulus, now we are just back to slightly normal level? The last 2 years have been wonky.
 
Do you personally feel the effects of this recession? Do you know of anyone that is losing their jobs or afraid of losing their jobs? Are we really in a recession if companies had monster growth due to excess money supply from stimulus, now we are just back to slightly normal level? The last 2 years have been wonky.
It’s not about losing jobs so much as losing real $ this time. You can claim we’re not in a recession, but everyone on average is getting poorer. What do you call that?
 
Do you personally feel the effects of this recession? Do you know of anyone that is losing their jobs or afraid of losing their jobs? Are we really in a recession if companies had monster growth due to excess money supply from stimulus, now we are just back to slightly normal level? The last 2 years have been wonky.
Everyone has. Check your 401K balance or your expenditures now due to inflation. No doubt it has been a "wonky" ride with the pandemic the past two years but the trend forward does not look good either.
 
Everyone has. Check your 401K balance or your expenditures now due to inflation. No doubt it has been a "wonky" ride with the pandemic the past two years but the trend forward does not look good either.
So wait a minute. Everytime your 401k goes down, you think that is a recession??

And you haven't lost anything in your 401k if you haven't cashed it out.
 
So wait a minute. Everytime your 401k goes down, you think that is a recession??

And you haven't lost anything in your 401k if you haven't cashed it out.
Never said that at all ... 401k's go up and down all the time ... but with the average 401K down 30% a lot of people are pulling back on purchases and retirement plans. Consumer sentiment on the economy is not good right now.
 
Everyone has. Check your 401K balance or your expenditures now due to inflation. No doubt it has been a "wonky" ride with the pandemic the past two years but the trend forward does not look good either.
My 401k balance is 100% higher than it was 2 years ago. Your argument we are in recession isn't matching up with your support evidence. The economy and the stock market are 2 different things. A recession is based off the economy not wall street valuations. Things can become overvalued or undervalued on the stock market. I anticipate 1-1 1/2% growth in in the future, possibly back up to 2%. As to the money flow, government policies and the Fed, those 3 things got out of whack. I hope these tend to normalize in the next 6 months.
 
My business was on the verge of failure in the summer of 2020.

Im adding new customers every day. My revenue is back to pre-trump days plus a lot more. The margin on that new business makes inflation and gas prices irrelevant, for me anyway.. LET'S GO BRANDON!!!
 
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Do you normally create jobs in a recession? “We have a very strong labor market. When you are creating almost 400,000 jobs a month, that is not a recession.”

Or perhaps, when you are regaining 400,000 jobs per month at a time when you are also experiencing two back to back quarters of negative GNP growth, you aren't really "creating" jobs...
 
Gotta pick your poison....runaway inflation or recession. There's no easy way out...

From what I've seen it's most likely going to be a "mild" recession. If inflation is back to a reasonable level by spring it'll have been worth it IMO.
This. The narrative has recently shifted from "soft landing" to "mile recession."

COVID has really turned the global economic on its head. Nothing has played out as expected, and I expect the looming recession will do the same.

Personally, I could use a little bit of a slowdown in my life.
 
My business was on the verge of failure in the summer of 2020.

Im adding new customers every day. My revenue is back to pre-trump days plus a lot more. The margin on that new business makes inflation and gas prices irrelevant, for me anyway.. LET'S GO BRANDON!!!
Wait, so your business was on the verge of failure the summer of 2020 but your best numbers were from the Pre-Trump years?

What in the world happened to your business between 2016 and the summer of 2020?
 
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Never said that at all ... 401k's go up and down all the time ... but with the average 401K down 30% a lot of people are pulling back on purchases and retirement plans. Consumer sentiment on the economy is not good right now.
Yea, I'm aware of all that. Again you are talking about the political end of this conversation. I am talking from the economic end.
 
My 401k balance is 100% higher than it was 2 years ago. Your argument we are in recession isn't matching up with your support evidence. The economy and the stock market are 2 different things. A recession is based off the economy not wall street valuations. Things can become overvalued or undervalued on the stock market. I anticipate 1-1 1/2% growth in in the future, possibly back up to 2%. As to the money flow, government policies and the Fed, those 3 things got out of whack. I hope these tend to normalize in the next 6 months.
The support evidence is two quarters of negative GDP. That's in the books and you can't redefine that. That historically has been how a recession is defined. The stock market is typically looking 6-12 months down the road and is actually a leading indicator of future economic expansion or contraction. A big piece of that is expected future earnings growth. When it is down 30%+ that is a huge red flag. Believe me, I've been through a few of these. Better yet, read the article in the original post by Bruno.
 
Feels like we have been in a weird economic zone of muddied waters for 2.5 years due to Covid once in a hundred years event. Also feels like we from a cyclical standpoint were overdue for a recession / slow time by 2020. I feel like it’s nothing compared to 2008-2009 and a lot of steam let out of bubble will lead to normalized economy within a year.
 
As the DNC sent out the talking points yet? I look forward to HROT blaming the GOP for this
Your assertion is that Democrats/Biden are solely responsible for this mess? Honestly Ih, I saw this coming starting in 2006. Lack of Congressional oversight of the housing market, a really ill-advised tax cut and an over-generous Covid assistance program has to play some part in this mess, correct? And BOTH parties had a part in these decisions. And then there are factors responsible that quite honestly, the US government has absolutely no control over.
But to blame this solely on Biden and Democrats is even beNeath your rather low political standards.
 
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The support evidence is two quarters of negative GDP. That's in the books and you can't redefine that. That historically has been how a recession is defined. The stock market is typically looking 6-12 months down the road and is actually a leading indicator of future economic expansion or contraction. A big piece of that is expected future earnings growth. When it is down 30%+ that is a huge red flag. Believe me, I've been through a few of these. Better yet, read the article in the original post by Bruno.
Basically you are at the level of intelligence of my 8 year old. You initially said we were in a recession because all you needed to do was look at your 401k. Hence you got my response the economy and stock market are 2 different things. Secondly since you think the stock market is only based on future discounting you are telling me earning are going to decline by 30% . . . I would love to make a side bet with you that :). Lets do education on the stock market real quick. Individuals had excess money from stimulus couldn't do anything else during covid, they started playing in the stock market and started to make lots of money, add in a stock market that was already at high valuations for a variety of reasons but primarily low interest rates. The PE's got way to high to over exuberance similar to the roaring 20's and the dot com bubble. When the fed started increasing interest rates, it meant that the PE's that were acceptable before were no longer and those valuations need to come down immensely. I am of the opinion right now the stock market is primarily trying to adjust to interest rates, maybe slightly for a recession but not much. Its why I think we see a bounce and then you start getting the revisions to estimates coming down and the stock market having another decline next year. You may have been through these a couple times but your rational is far from what is really occurring in the stock market. Just look at Shiller PE chart. That tells you all you need to know, about the overvaluation of the prior market. If you think those valuations were appropriate I don't know what to tell you. You are correct that the market does try to discount the future, but if that was the case we should have been down much more last year.

A recession encompasses much more generally than just GDP. If that is your only focus then you are correct. All I stated was the average person is not feeling the affects of your "recession." It is no different today than it was 6 months ago than it was a year ago. Look below for the general definition of a recession and what it all entails. You are correct on 2 quarters, but the effects are much more than that. We haven't seen any of the resulting effects yet- and we still have a possibility we won't. However, I think as I have said many times, the Fed will overtighten as they are afraid of loosening to quick and having a 1970 situation.

What qualifies as a recession?


A recession is a significant, widespread, and prolonged downturn in economic activity. A popular rule of thumb is that two consecutive quarters of decline in gross domestic product (GDP) constitute a recession. Recessions typically produce declines in economic output, consumer demand, and employment.
 
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