ADVERTISEMENT

100% chance of recession

Basically you are at the level of intelligence of my 8 year old. So you are telling me earning are going to decline by 30% . . . I would love to make a side bet with you that :). Lets do education on the stock market real quick. Individuals had excess money from stimulus couldn't do anything else during covid, they started playing in the stock market and started to make lots of money, add in a stock market that was already at high valuations for a variety of reasons but primarily low interest rates. The PE's got way to high to over exuberance similar to the roaring 20's and the dot com bubble. When the fed started increasing interest rates, it meant that the PE's that were acceptable before were no longer and those valuations need to come down immensely. I am of the opinion right now the stock market is primarily trying to adjust to interest rates, maybe slightly for a recession but not much. Its why I think we see a bounce and then you start getting the revisions to estimates coming down and the stock market having another decline next year. You may have been through these a couple times but your rational is far from what is really occurring in the stock market. Just look at Shiller PE chart. That tells you all you need to know, about the overvaluation of the prior market. If you think those valuations were appropriate I don't know what to tell you. You are correct that the market does try to discount the future, but if that was the case we should have been down much more last year.

A recession encompasses much more generally than just GDP. If that is your only focus then you are correct. All I stated was the average person is not feeling the affects of your "recession." It is no different today than it was 6 months ago than it was a year ago. Look below for the general definition of a recession and what it all entails. You are correct on 2 quarters, but the effects are much more than that. We haven't seen any of the resulting effects yet- and we still have a possibility we won't. However, I think as I have said many times, the Fed will overtighten as they are afraid of loosening to quick and having a 1970 situation.

What qualifies as a recession?


A recession is a significant, widespread, and prolonged downturn in economic activity. A popular rule of thumb is that two consecutive quarters of decline in gross domestic product (GDP) constitute a recession. Recessions typically produce declines in economic output, consumer demand, and employment.
I was not going to write a book like you did there but yes, the rising interest rates is also a factor in the stock market performance. The old saying "Don't fight the Fed" applies here. Rising interest rates will also impact future economic growth. So back to my original statement ... the stock market is a leading indicator ... not 1-for-1 with earnings ... never said that. Future earnings are a "big piece" though ... you can't deny that.
 
I was not going to write a book like you did there but yes, the rising interest rates is also a factor in the stock market performance. The old saying "Don't fight the Fed" applies here. Rising interest rates will also impact future economic growth. So back to my original statement ... the stock market is a leading indicator ... not 1-for-1 with earnings ... never said that. Future earnings are a "big piece" though ... you can't deny that.
You have 2 pieces earnings and then how much you value them at. That is the stock market in a nut shell, in my opinion valuations got out of whack, not so much the earnings. Just don't tell me we are in a recession because your 401k is down 30%. You will get laughed at, that is not why the stock market is currently down :).

You also still haven't acknowledge that recessions have much more effects than just GDP, including decreasing demand for products and declining employement - so far we have seen neither. The only thing that has cropped up so far is declining investment, which is a precursor to the other 2. The real effects are still coming down the pipeline if the fed doesn't slow down on rate hikes.
 
You have 2 pieces earnings and then how much you value them at. That is the stock market in a nut shell. Just don't tell me we are in a recession because your 401k is down 30%. You will get laughed at :).
Never said that ... 401K down 30%+ leads to negative consumer sentiment ... which can lead to a downward trend in the economy. The two negative GDP quarters already in the books is the official "recession" evidence. I think we are saying the same thing but you are getting nit picky. Can we agree recessions suck? :cool:
 
because your 401k is down 30%.
Never said that ... 401K down 30%+ leads to negative consumer sentiment ... which can lead to a downward trend in the economy. The two negative GDP quarters already in the books is the official "recession" evidence. I think we are saying the same thing but you are getting nit picky. Can we agree recessions suck? :cool:
You didn't . . . .
Never said that at all ... 401k's go up and down all the time ... but with the average 401K down 30% a lot of people are pulling back on purchases and retirement plans.
I was just using your words. Guess we are in the clinton phase on what definitions mean. I think I am done with with this one . . . . When the other side is unwilling to acknowledge simple facts or their own previous statements there is no need to continue on.


You still refuse to acknowledge we have not seen any increase in unemployment or decrease consumer demand (even though the demand has shifted from more goods to services).
 
Last edited:
I was not going to write a book like you did there but yes, the rising interest rates is also a factor in the stock market performance. The old saying "Don't fight the Fed" applies here. Rising interest rates will also impact future economic growth. So back to my original statement ... the stock market is a leading indicator ... not 1-for-1 with earnings ... never said that. Future earnings are a "big piece" though ... you can't deny that.
“Rising interest rates” is a relative term, busting. We are coming out of a period of historically low interest rates...and those rates were the result of poor Congressional oversight and callous disregard for money in the private banking sector....profits over prudence.
The stock market means nothing for most Americans. What does matter though is how things are going on Main Street.
Interest rates need rely of real market conditions now...rates should have been allowed to rise during the second Obama term and thru the Trump term. Another reason we are in a mess now. The “best times” in my lifetime were during the Clinton years...and home mortgage rates were in the 7% range.
 
“Rising interest rates” is a relative term, busting. We are coming out of a period of historically low interest rates...and those rates were the result of poor Congressional oversight and callous disregard for money in the private banking sector....profits over prudence.
The stock market means nothing for most Americans. What does matter though is how things are going on Main Street.
Interest rates need rely of real market conditions now...rates should have been allowed to rise during the second Obama term and thru the Trump term. Another reason we are in a mess now. The “best times” in my lifetime were during the Clinton years...and home mortgage rates were in the 7% range.
Agree ... rates were too low for too long the past 10 years. What is going to be interesting is how those rising rates impact Federal and State borrowing costs ... not just consumers.
 
Agree ... rates were too low for too long the past 10 years. What is going to be interesting is how those rising rates impact Federal and State borrowing costs ... not just consumers.
It’s not like no one knew they were going to rise....it’s just that “tax cuts” are more soothing for the soul....I’ll advised, but more comfortable.
Lower interest rates in bad times and raise them in good times. Seems simple to me.
 
  • Like
Reactions: SL Hawk Fan
It’s not like no one knew they were going to rise....it’s just that “tax cuts” are more soothing for the soul....I’ll advised, but more comfortable.
Lower interest rates in bad times and raise them in good times. Seems simple to me.
^^^ That formula makes the most sense over the long run. Like a throttle and brake in a car as you navigate elevation changes.
 
Last edited:
Basically you are at the level of intelligence of my 8 year old. You initially said we were in a recession because all you needed to do was look at your 401k. Hence you got my response the economy and stock market are 2 different things. Secondly since you think the stock market is only based on future discounting you are telling me earning are going to decline by 30% . . . I would love to make a side bet with you that :). Lets do education on the stock market real quick. Individuals had excess money from stimulus couldn't do anything else during covid, they started playing in the stock market and started to make lots of money, add in a stock market that was already at high valuations for a variety of reasons but primarily low interest rates. The PE's got way to high to over exuberance similar to the roaring 20's and the dot com bubble. When the fed started increasing interest rates, it meant that the PE's that were acceptable before were no longer and those valuations need to come down immensely. I am of the opinion right now the stock market is primarily trying to adjust to interest rates, maybe slightly for a recession but not much. Its why I think we see a bounce and then you start getting the revisions to estimates coming down and the stock market having another decline next year. You may have been through these a couple times but your rational is far from what is really occurring in the stock market. Just look at Shiller PE chart. That tells you all you need to know, about the overvaluation of the prior market. If you think those valuations were appropriate I don't know what to tell you. You are correct that the market does try to discount the future, but if that was the case we should have been down much more last year.

A recession encompasses much more generally than just GDP. If that is your only focus then you are correct. All I stated was the average person is not feeling the affects of your "recession." It is no different today than it was 6 months ago than it was a year ago. Look below for the general definition of a recession and what it all entails. You are correct on 2 quarters, but the effects are much more than that. We haven't seen any of the resulting effects yet- and we still have a possibility we won't. However, I think as I have said many times, the Fed will overtighten as they are afraid of loosening to quick and having a 1970 situation.

What qualifies as a recession?


A recession is a significant, widespread, and prolonged downturn in economic activity. A popular rule of thumb is that two consecutive quarters of decline in gross domestic product (GDP) constitute a recession. Recessions typically produce declines in economic output, consumer demand, and employment.
Is he a 68 year old man today or a Boomer hating Gen Z?
 
  • Like
Reactions: timinatoria
My business was on the verge of failure in the summer of 2020.

Im adding new customers every day. My revenue is back to pre-trump days plus a lot more. The margin on that new business makes inflation and gas prices irrelevant, for me anyway.. LET'S GO BRANDON!!!
This is what is confusing to me. Consumers seem to be buying up everything that is available to sell. There are job openings signs everywhere. Cars are sold months before they are even made.

It's confusing ....
 
  • Like
Reactions: WadeLookingbill
I'll ask you what I asked @NCHawk5
No, you normally don't create jobs in a recession but we normally don't have a pandemic but every 100 years either. These are weird economic times to say the least. There was such a drop off in employment during the shutdowns that we are holding that end up which is great. With rising rates, a battered stock market and consumer sentiment poor (because of inflation) these are big headwinds. So will two quarters of lower GDP lead to more? I don't know but most of the so called experts thinks so. Hopefully it's a soft landing.
 
"I would be amazed if they would declare this period to be a recession, even if it happens to have two quarters of negative growth.” Yellen said, adding that the economy had rapidly grown 5.5% last year. “We have a very strong labor market. When you are creating almost 400,000 jobs a month, that is not a recession.”
Someone should inform her if that if you're required to employ more people create less wealth, that's a sign you're in stagflation.

Many have championed accelerated wage growth over the past 18 months. In August, average hourly earnings held steady at 5.2 percent year over year, hitting $32.36. But inflation has eaten away at those gains.

BLS data show that real average hourly earnings (inflation-adjusted) fell 2.8 percent. In addition, when real average hourly earnings are combined with the 0.6 percent drop in the average workweek, the figure is negative 3.4 percent.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Hammer93
Is he a 68 year old man today or a Boomer hating Gen Z?
Not sure, but he merely wants to say we are in a recession. They haven't made a determination. We could be. If so though, we haven't seen the employment change or the decrease in demand. If we technically are in a recession and it started in April or May this could well end up being one of the longest recessions if the real effects don't start showing up for a year later. This could last 18 months to 24 months. When you are arguing this is a fact because 401k's are down 30%, get called on it then backtrack saying I never said that - It becomes a pointless task to argue with them any more. Clearly just a republican wanting to state we are in a recession to try to make a political point and trying to use the economics to prove his point when sadly they don't.
 
This is what is confusing to me. Consumers seem to be buying up everything that is available to sell. There are job openings signs everywhere. Cars are sold months before they are even made.

It's confusing ....
It is still not necessarily a god awful situation even for the low earners in certain areas of this country- gasoline and food are definitely up, but I’ve made deals on electronics over the last year that have been complete steals (adjusted for inflation, like less than I paid for a home theater system 10 years ago)

At this point, there is still an influx of cash from the middle class on up (because people like me don’t care about food/gasoline costs until they’re completely nuts)
 
  • Like
Reactions: Hawk_4shur
Not sure, but he merely wants to say we are in a recession. They haven't made a determination. We could be. If so though, we haven't seen the employment change or the decrease in demand. If we technically are in a recession and it started in April or May this could well end up being one of the longest recessions if the real effects don't start showing up for a year later. This could last 18 months to 24 months. When you are arguing this is a fact because 401k's are down 30%, get called on it then backtrack saying I never said that - It becomes a pointless task to argue with them any more. Clearly just a republican wanting to state we are in a recession to try to make a political point and trying to use the economics to prove his point when sadly they don't.
We’re in a recession. Call it a cupcake recession if that allows you to accept it, but we’re in one bud.
 
I must be the only person who has “the economy” at the bottom of reasons of how I vote. I don’t blame either party for the economy. It goes up and down and I just refuse to worry about it. Prices have constantly gone up my entire life. This isn’t a last 6 months thing. Then you have companies using “inflation” to raise prices and rake in record profits.
Anyone notice when you get new brakes for your car, for example? Something you do about every 3 years. Each time I get this done it goes up about $100. Never ending rising costs of almost everything. This isn’t the fault of any President.
 
No, you normally don't create jobs in a recession but we normally don't have a pandemic but every 100 years either. These are weird economic times to say the least. There was such a drop off in employment during the shutdowns that we are holding that end up which is great. With rising rates, a battered stock market and consumer sentiment poor (because of inflation) these are big headwinds. So will two quarters of lower GDP lead to more? I don't know but most of the so called experts thinks so. Hopefully it's a soft landing.
a "battered stock market"? Give me a phuquin' break! The market is adjusting to NORMAL interest rates from the "free money" days of the last 12-15 years.....The market (with cheap, plentiful money and NO incentive for individuals to save) knew this dat was coming...I mean these folks are NOT total dummies. The stock market is going to be just fine.....right now getting product to market is the main problem...and that problem lies OUTSIDE the United States (think Asia...CHINA) and its control.
China and Xi have totally screwed up everything connected with Covid and its effects have worldwide impact as the past 40 years the US has shipped its manufacturing away from home to China/Asia. A move that was great for corporate America and a killer for Main Street America and the middle class.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Ree4 and Tom Paris
a "battered stock market"? Give me a phuquin' break! The market is adjusting to NORMAL interest rates from the "free money" days of the last 12-15 years.....The market (with cheap, plentiful money and NO incentive for individuals to save) knew this dat was coming...I mean these folks are NOT total dummies. The stock market is going to be just fine.....right now getting product to market is the main problem...and that problem lies OUTSIDE the United States (think Asia...CHINA) and its control.
China and Xi have totally screwed up everything connected with Covid and its effects have worldwide impact as the past 40 years the US has shipped its manufacturing away from home to China/Asia. A move that was great for corporate America and a killer for Main Street America and the middle class.
You can use whatever adjective you like ... I'd call it battered. In fact, Barrons called it "battered" back on May 23 when the S&P was at 3941 ... it's down another 7% since then ... finished up today at 3678. Well in to "bear market" territory. I'm not arguing with your why ... higher interest rates are definitely a factor.



 
  • Like
Reactions: Hammer93
We’re in a recession. Call it a cupcake recession if that allows you to accept it, but we’re in one bud.
In my opinion what we are currently going through is a normalization to the mean. We had a period of excess growth last year due to the stimulus and child tax credits, Demand is still extremely strong, just not the crazy demand we saw last year. So other than the standard definition and purely on a paper basis you can say we are in a recession, there Are no other symptoms of a common recession. I won’t even call it a cupcake recession. Once demand starts to wane in the 1st to second quarter and we start to have higher unemployment (if it occurs) then I will say we are having a recession.
 
  • Like
Reactions: NCHawk5
In my opinion what we are currently going through is a normalization to the mean. We had a period of excess growth last year due to the stimulus and child tax credits, Demand is still extremely strong, just not the crazy demand we saw last year. So other than the standard definition and purely on a paper basis you can say we are in a recession, there Are no other symptoms of a common recession. I won’t even call it a cupcake recession. Once demand starts to wane in the 1st to second quarter and we start to have higher unemployment (if it occurs) then I will say we are having a recession.
We’re in a recession. Call it what you want, but the poors are feeling it. You have quite the extraordinary scenario where entry-level jobs yield a decent outcome from a labor perspective. That has flipped, serfs back to your territory! And I’m pissed about it, because it was a situation where everyone was happy- now everyone is upset again.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Hammer93
You can use whatever adjective you like ... I'd call it battered. In fact, Barrons called it "battered" back on May 23 when the S&P was at 3941 ... it's down another 7% since then ... finished up today at 3678. Well in to "bear market" territory. I'm not arguing with your why ... higher interest rates are definitely a factor.



The stock market has "flourished" for one reason Busting......the economy has sucked eggs ever since the mortgage collapse of 2008....fundamentally it is been correcting itself ever since.....The stock markets strength lies in the fact that the Fed decided to pront money like it was for a monopoly game...and then give it away for damn near nothing.......America played by these rules for 12-14 years.....,.,and there was NO WHERE else to stick your money except in the market......It was a booming economy that was driving the market.....it was the Fed.......and then throw in a couple of needless tax cuts that made money even more worthless and shipping manufacturing jobs to Asia and China, while dumping the middle class American worker.....Now feign angst and disgust because we have "inflation"......You never saw it coming?
 
  • Like
Reactions: Ree4
We’re in a recession. Call it what you want, but the poors are feeling it. You have quite the extraordinary scenario where entry-level jobs yield a decent outcome from a labor perspective. That has flipped, serfs back to your territory! And I’m pissed about it, because it was a situation where everyone was happy- now everyone is upset again.
The poors always "feel it" NC....even in good times. Don't bullshit a bullshitter.....I have been "a poor" and I remember what it felt like and the frustration.....In a capitalist economy NC, "the poors" always are on the wrong end of the stick.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Ree4
The poors always "feel it" NC....even in good times. Don't bullshit a bullshitter.....I have been "a poor" and I remember what it felt like and the frustration.....In a capitalist economy NC, "the poors" always are on the wrong end of the stick.
Anyone at current poverty levels is an expendable human being imo. It takes almost nothing to get a $15/hr wage at 40. I’ve been a gd poor, and I worked my way out of it- in a actual job shortage situation. The absolute worst should get food and shelter, I agree
 
The stock market has "flourished" for one reason Busting......the economy has sucked eggs ever since the mortgage collapse of 2008....fundamentally it is been correcting itself ever since.....The stock markets strength lies in the fact that the Fed decided to pront money like it was for a monopoly game...and then give it away for damn near nothing.......America played by these rules for 12-14 years.....,.,and there was NO WHERE else to stick your money except in the market......It was a booming economy that was driving the market.....it was the Fed.......and then throw in a couple of needless tax cuts that made money even more worthless and shipping manufacturing jobs to Asia and China, while dumping the middle class American worker.....Now feign angst and disgust because we have "inflation"......You never saw it coming?
I complete agree with that. When interest rates are near zero stocks are going to flourish. Never should have been that low. Never fight the Fed.
 
We’re in a recession. Call it what you want, but the poors are feeling it. You have quite the extraordinary scenario where entry-level jobs yield a decent outcome from a labor perspective. That has flipped, serfs back to your territory! And I’m pissed about it, because it was a situation where everyone was happy- now everyone is upset again.
Poors are not feeling a recession. They may be feeling inflation, but not unemployment. Most individuals in the lower employment levels have seen wages increase 25%-50% in the last 3 years. Most factory workers and even McDonald’s employees are making much more than three years ago and even more than inflation. In my opinion it’s the middle class getting squeezed more, but still likely doing ok. Inflation is not a recession.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Hammer93
The poors always "feel it" NC....even in good times. Don't bullshit a bullshitter.....I have been "a poor" and I remember what it felt like and the frustration.....In a capitalist economy NC, "the poors" always are on the wrong end of the stick.
Very true. I went to HyVee the other day and had a 1/2 cart filled. $327 and I was not buying crazy shit ... just some basics. I'm not sure how poor people make it these days with food, utilities, gas, rents through the roof.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Ree4
Poors are not feeling a recession. They may be feeling inflation, but not unemployment. Most individuals in the lower employment levels have seen wages increase 25%-50% in the last 3 years. Most factory workers and even McDonald’s employees are making much more than three years ago and even more than inflation. In my opinion it’s the middle class getting squeezed more, but still likely doing ok. Inflation is not a recession.
That is meaningless for people living outside of po dunk Iowa. Rents here right now (and prices) are absolutely insane. They’ve matched wherever we’re going inflation wise. Yeah, you can get a job, awesome. But when you’re renting a garbage ass apartment with 2 kids, it means nothing.
 
I complete agree with that. When interest rates are near zero stocks are going to flourish. Never should have been that low. Never fight the Fed.
By 2014, rates should have returned to being "market driven" and there was absolutely NO reason for the trump tax cut. Then the Covid bailout was way too generous...a lot of businesses should never have been eligible for the free money...there should have been a more stringent type of "means testing" employed.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Ree4
That is meaningless for people living outside of po dunk Iowa. Rents here right now (and prices) are absolutely insane. They’ve matched wherever we’re going inflation wise. Yeah, you can get a job, awesome. But when you’re renting a garbage ass apartment with 2 kids, it means nothing.
If we were in a recession prices and demand would be coming down. the definition of a recession. Now you could say we are in stagflation, but again we are not in a recession in my opinion.
 
If we were in a recession prices and demand would be coming down. the definition of a recession. Now you could say we are in stagflation, but again we are not in a recession in my opinion.
Ah, stagflation. Something you and I have never experienced in our lifetimes. Thankfully, ol Joe and his worthless administration have given to us. Idk, let’s blame the dumbass Covid bill of ‘21, or the biggest insult to our country that was the “inflation reduction act.”
 
  • Like
Reactions: Hammer93
Ah, stagflation. Something you and I have never experienced in our lifetimes. Thankfully, ol Joe and his worthless administration have given to us. Idk, let’s blame the dumbass Covid bill of ‘21, or the biggest insult to our country that was the “inflation reduction act.”
As an accountant trumps tax cut and stimulus package are just as much at fault. Remember trump wanted the same stimulus that Biden did.
 
ADVERTISEMENT