1929 & Dot Com Charts
- Thread starter West Dundee Hawkeye
- Start date
No way. Spending is completely out of control. No one seriously cuts spending. No more money to DC without serious reform on filthy money in politics.
Hondo11 what are you laughing at, the stock market has gone straight up for 4 years, what did you expect it to do?
I guess we will find out, but in many ways the market has not been all that special the last four years unless you have been taking profit or dollar cost average investing. Looking at the DOW, it broke into low 26,000 in January 2018 and here we are 52 months later at the high 32,000. Being 20 percent higher in 52 months is nothing special, my point being not sure it’s currently a bubble waiting to pop. It’s already been fairly volatile and treading water for years.
JFC dude. It is seriously about time for you to start sitting out of these conversations.
Umm ok, I was the one who last August September laid out exactly what was going to happen and the reasons why. I’m thinking you may be the one that needs to sit out.
Lo ****ing l. Shut up. Last august you said the market reached its high point for the year. Lol. You also kept pushing your stupid xin pick. Another huge lol. Now you are saying the stock market has been straight up for 4 years. Good grief. Shut up.
I have never said anything even remotely close to your rant above. Self-awareness is your friend.
Perhaps. Perhaps not. Unfortunately for you, my character has little to no impact on yours. That rant is purely of your own making.
Damn your are a hard one to please. I called a top and stated the market could go up another 5-10% from that point in time and was within 2 months of getting it correct. Wow. As to XIN the play has generally been about them reporting. I had expected them to report last August Sept they didn’t until March. also the real estate sector got worse. In those cases the only time some invested they generally made money or broke even when I recognized things were going sideways. Yes there has been pullbacks in the stock market the issue is the Nasdaq primarily along with say the S&P to a certain extent went parabolic during that time frame. Show me another time period where the stock market went up at a that Large of an increase for 4 straight years and not coming off a depression or a recession (essentially you are looking at something like the roaring 20’s or the tech bubble). We all know what comes after. I also said whatever you do stay away from the growth sector. If you have ever given better financial advice please show me, because no offense but that was a damn fine call.
That’s because the Dow isn’t where the gains have been, it’s been the Nasdaq and to a lessor extent the S&P500.
Getting your natty gas bets down early, boys & girls, she's gonna break $9 today > https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/@NG.1
I don't disagree. But ....
I went back and looked at 2019, before all the Covid mess, to use as some sort of baseline.
Federal deficit $984 billion
Discretionary spending - $1.34 Trillion.
So you would have to cut 73% of discretionary spending to balance the budget in 2019.
Where would you start?
Around 70 of these studies of past historical winning stocks. Note: you will need to change the url to replace (DOT) with the standard .
https://s3-us-east-2.amazonaws(DOT)com/marderreport/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/27210903/IBD_AmericaGreatestOpportunity1.pdf
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From the Wishing Wealth Blog on May 1, 2022
"I began seriously following the market around 1964. I remember at one investors meeting I attended, people were complaining about the decline in 1962 after what some called the Kennedy Slide. In 1966, 1970, and 1974, I witnessed other declines, especially the large one in 1974 while I was in graduate school. People back then talked to me about the coming new depression. Bear markets lasted for many months. There were also many years when the Dow was flat. Between 1965 and 1982, the Dow failed repeatedly to break 1000. Once it did, it marched on to reach 10,000 in 1999. That was the roaring 90s. It then hit a top, not broken for 6 years and then went on to the dreaded 2007 top and ensuing decline. Check out a chart of the Dow , (not inflation adjusted) and you can see multiyear periods when the market went nowhere. These long periods of a flat market typically came after a period when the indexes hit all-time highs for many years, just like the present! We may have been spoiled and misled by an ever rising market....When I look back at my indicators from prior major market declines I conclude that the current decline may be just beginning."
"We have yet to see the panic that typically occurs near a market bottom. Many people now painfully realize that the market does not always rise but I think it unlikely that many people have sold yet. They are willing to buy and hope. When they give up on the market after it has declined much further and they never want to engage with it again we will probably have a bottom. As they say, the time to buy is when everyone is afraid to….(I modified the traditional quote in respect for the carnage in Ukraine)"
www.wishingwealthblog.com
"I began seriously following the market around 1964. I remember at one investors meeting I attended, people were complaining about the decline in 1962 after what some called the Kennedy Slide. In 1966, 1970, and 1974, I witnessed other declines, especially the large one in 1974 while I was in graduate school. People back then talked to me about the coming new depression. Bear markets lasted for many months. There were also many years when the Dow was flat. Between 1965 and 1982, the Dow failed repeatedly to break 1000. Once it did, it marched on to reach 10,000 in 1999. That was the roaring 90s. It then hit a top, not broken for 6 years and then went on to the dreaded 2007 top and ensuing decline. Check out a chart of the Dow , (not inflation adjusted) and you can see multiyear periods when the market went nowhere. These long periods of a flat market typically came after a period when the indexes hit all-time highs for many years, just like the present! We may have been spoiled and misled by an ever rising market....When I look back at my indicators from prior major market declines I conclude that the current decline may be just beginning."
"We have yet to see the panic that typically occurs near a market bottom. Many people now painfully realize that the market does not always rise but I think it unlikely that many people have sold yet. They are willing to buy and hope. When they give up on the market after it has declined much further and they never want to engage with it again we will probably have a bottom. As they say, the time to buy is when everyone is afraid to….(I modified the traditional quote in respect for the carnage in Ukraine)"
Blog Post: Based on my analysis of the market, it is nowhere oversold enough to be near a bottom. Here is the evidence. | Wishing Wealth Blog
I began seriously following the market around 1964. I remember at one investors meeting I attended, people were complaining about the decline in 1962 after what some called the Kennedy Slide. In 1966, 1970, and 1974, I witnessed other declines, especially the large one in 1974 while I was in...
www.wishingwealthblog.com
In the 1993 Bill Clinton plan, for every 50 cents he raised taxes, he cut spending by 50 cents. Spread the pain.
I would raise the Personal Income Tax rate for everybody making more than $80,000. I would raise the Estate Tax and Capital Gains tax rates as well.
Social Security (SS) is about 12 years from being short of funds. I would slowly raise the retirement age from 62 - 65 and raise the SS income limit to be taxed.
Medicare is also about 12 years from being short money and I would make changes to it as well.
Its going to be tough as we go through a re-rating and revaluing stocks. Some have been obliterated. I think FB is a very good value at these values. NFLX seems cheap if they can continue to grow, but there is an aspect that could be a value trap as more competition comes in and margins compress. I am still saying the first true line in the sand is 3500 to 3600 on the S&P. Would be a PE of 16. That would seem to be a reasonable support area. The next would be the 3000 range.
