From this story about Michael Burry shorting Apple...Burry previously tweeted that based on previous declines, the bottom for the S&P in this bear market would be 1862.00. The S&P closed today at 3901.35. He later deleted the tweet.
1929 & Dot Com Charts
- Thread starter West Dundee Hawkeye
- Start date
From this story about Michael Burry shorting Apple...Burry previously tweeted that based on previous declines, the bottom for the S&P in this bear market would be 1862.00. The S&P closed today at 3901.35. He later deleted the tweet.
That’s a pretty pessimistic view. Would pretty much put us in a depression.
The Bear Markets of 2000 - 2002 and 2008 had massive drops in the indexes and there was not a depression.
Recessions are normal.
Yes, those were both 50% drops and what bury is forecasting would be a 62% drop. Not as bad as I thought at first glance, but still a monster decline.
Anyway, I don't think it will go down that far, but wouldn't be surprised with a 50% decline by the time all is said and done.
Even better, is to have rolled into stocks that are going up in/against the Brandon Debacle! Inflation is eating your cash up at over 10%/year!! Energy is making new 52 week highs day in and day out!!
Mike Wilson at Morgan Stanley says S&P 500 at 3400 by end of summer.
Morgan Stanley strategists led by Michael J. Wilson wrote in a Monday research note that they expect the S&P 500 to fall to 3,400 by the end of the summer, or another roughly 14% from current levels, as earnings growth and consumer spending slow.
Mike Wilson
A similar collection of quotes exists for buy recommendations for Enron stock along with a chart overlay. I will see if I can find it.
Chart locations are an approximate indication only
"We will not have any more crashes in our time."
- John Maynard Keynes in 1927
"I cannot help but raise a dissenting voice to statements that we are living in a fool's paradise, and that prosperity in this country must necessarily diminish and recede in the near future."
- E. H. H. Simmons, President, New York Stock Exchange, January 12, 1928
"There will be no interruption of our permanent prosperity."
- Myron E. Forbes, President, Pierce Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928
"No Congress of the United States ever assembled, on surveying the state of the Union, has met with a more pleasing prospect than that which appears at the present time. In the domestic field there is tranquility and contentment...and the highest record of years of prosperity. In the foreign field there is peace, the goodwill which comes from mutual understanding."
- Calvin Coolidge December 4, 1928
"There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash."
- Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist , New York Times, Sept. 5, 1929
"Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months."
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics, Oct. 17, 1929
"This crash is not going to have much effect on business."
- Arthur Reynolds, Chairman of Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago, October 24, 1929
All 20 quotes are on the linked Gold Eagle webpage
www.gold-eagle.com
www.wishingwealthblog.com
Chart locations are an approximate indication only
"We will not have any more crashes in our time."
- John Maynard Keynes in 1927
"I cannot help but raise a dissenting voice to statements that we are living in a fool's paradise, and that prosperity in this country must necessarily diminish and recede in the near future."
- E. H. H. Simmons, President, New York Stock Exchange, January 12, 1928
"There will be no interruption of our permanent prosperity."
- Myron E. Forbes, President, Pierce Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928
"No Congress of the United States ever assembled, on surveying the state of the Union, has met with a more pleasing prospect than that which appears at the present time. In the domestic field there is tranquility and contentment...and the highest record of years of prosperity. In the foreign field there is peace, the goodwill which comes from mutual understanding."
- Calvin Coolidge December 4, 1928
"There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash."
- Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist , New York Times, Sept. 5, 1929
"Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months."
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics, Oct. 17, 1929
"This crash is not going to have much effect on business."
- Arthur Reynolds, Chairman of Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago, October 24, 1929
All 20 quotes are on the linked Gold Eagle webpage
1927-1933 Chart of Pompous Prognosticators | Gold Eagle
Chart locations are an approximate indication only "We will not have any more crashes in our time."
www.gold-eagle.com
Is worst of stock market decline over? I’m not betting on it….. | Wishing Wealth Blog
Wouldn't you know that the extreme market action would occur just after I went on vacation? I was not surprised by the down market last Monday. When stocks have a bad week and end on a down note on Friday, people get scared over the weekend and sell on Monday morning. The depth of
www.wishingwealthblog.com
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I originally thought we would bottom in October but it might take longer. A 9 month Bear market is not that long.
Manchin wants to raise taxes and use half for deficit reduction but I think he might be alone. Fiscal policy is a joke.
The key is the Fed. So far the Fed has been asleep at the wheel. I hope they do 100 basis points and say they are prepared to follow up with another 100 basis points in July and September. We will know on Wednesday.
Jeremy Grantham says we are in a bubble that is bursting. Here are several interviews he has done in recent months and one from early last year. In the interview with Australian tv, he says that a 50% drop in the stock market from it's peak would not surprise him. That would take the S&P down to 2380.
This makes a lot of sense. We had quantitative easing galore to inflate us out of the 2008 recession and we piled a lot of money printing on top of that in the last 10 years. Some of it was justified to keep the economy from imploding during the pandemic and some of it was an unnecessary gift to Wall Street with the repeated "Fed Put" that kept the markets from going through a needed and healthy correction.
Feb 2022 Fox Business
Jan 2022 Bloomberg
May 2022 CNBC
Feb 2022 ABC Australia
Jan 2021 Bloomberg
This makes a lot of sense. We had quantitative easing galore to inflate us out of the 2008 recession and we piled a lot of money printing on top of that in the last 10 years. Some of it was justified to keep the economy from imploding during the pandemic and some of it was an unnecessary gift to Wall Street with the repeated "Fed Put" that kept the markets from going through a needed and healthy correction.
Feb 2022 Fox Business
Jan 2022 Bloomberg
May 2022 CNBC
Feb 2022 ABC Australia
Jan 2021 Bloomberg
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Thanks for posting.
Amazon fell 94% in the Dot-Com Bear Market. 50% - 80% drop is easy to see.
Stay in cash and keep your powder dry.
Oh no! Save us! Make us great again! Obama ruined everything and Trump saved us!
You are right though. It is useless.
I have watched three of the five videos I posted. The two Bloomberg interviews are 40 minutes each. I will get to them sometime this week. In the Australian interview, he said that he thought it would be a slow grind down and not a sharp crash. He said that stimulus has put a lot of money in pockets and people can't help themselves from buying the dip.
Off to a roaring start this morning. Futures already down about 600 points.
I’ll stay home and not use my $5 gas to go to the store and buy groceries that are already more than they were last week. 🤬
I’ll stay home and not use my $5 gas to go to the store and buy groceries that are already more than they were last week. 🤬
Very thankful for my stop losses.
I’m almost totally out of the market.
Biden is doing great.
From this story about Michael Burry shorting Apple...Burry previously tweeted that based on previous declines, the bottom for the S&P in this bear market would be 1862.00. The S&P closed today at 3901.35. He later deleted the tweet.
Here is a video with a collection of Burry's recent tweets on the impending crash that he sees coming.
Michael Burry's Warning for the 2022 Stock Market Crash
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Burry deletes all of his tweets fairly quickly. There is an account that archives all of his tweets. He posts a lot of political stuff on there, much more than crash related so be ready to scroll past all of that unless you agree with him.
Cassandra B.C.
https://mobile.twitter.com/michaeljburry
Michael Burry Archive
https://twitter.com/BurryArchive
Cassandra B.C.
https://mobile.twitter.com/michaeljburry
Michael Burry Archive
https://twitter.com/BurryArchive
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Minervini just posted a video of his webinar from last week that covers this topic. Top stocks will start breaking out before the major indexes have bottomed. I listened to this live. I will screenshot some of the historical charts he discussed and post them here.
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Amgen 1990...breaking out just as the NASDAQ bottomed. NASDAQ is the light grey graph at the top of the chart.
Higher low and then an uptrend but not much volume
www.wishingwealthblog.com
Blog post: Friday could be first day of new $QQQ short term up-trend; why this $QQQ rally may be different; how I draw green line for $HALO | Wishing Wealth Blog
This chart shows an interesting short term pattern that makes me think this rally is different from recent ones. I have marked short term tops (T) and bottoms (B). In a declining trend we see lower tops and bottoms. However the most recent bottom is higher than the previous one. We did not get the
www.wishingwealthblog.com
