2022 Hawks Home/Away Schedule

iowaflash

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Jul 1, 2006
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Taking a closer look at our upcoming games/opponents this fall, a few things become apparent….even with conceding a likely loss at tOSU, optimistically if the Hawks simply beat who they’re supposed to beat, take care of business at home (which would include a W against a Michigan team with only 3 returning defensive starters from last year), and take care of business in a traditionally strong month of November (will be facing all four B10 West contenders, 2 home/2 away), there’s little else standing in the way of a return trip back to Indy for some B10 Championship redemption!

How do I figure this? As near as I can tell, aside from tOSU game, the Hawks would either be favorites or no more than 2-4 point underdogs in any other game this year. And despite the Special Teams losses of Shudak and Jones, our very good defense should be even better than last year IMO, while with any luck/more experience, the offense will stay on the field longer, cashing in on more sustainable scoring drives…..perhaps a recipe for a memorable special year? Especially when a repeat B10 West title would insure a tOSU rematch, NOT in their own backyard this time?

GO HAWKS!
 
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nbanflfactory

HR Heisman
Aug 22, 2021
6,487
6,255
113
Taking a closer look at our upcoming games/opponents this fall, a few things become apparent….even with conceding a likely loss at tOSU, optimistically if the Hawks simply beat who they’re supposed to beat, take care of business at home (which would include a W against a Michigan team with only 3 returning defensive starters from last year), and take care of business in a traditionally strong month of November (will be facing all four B10 West contenders, 2 home/2 away), there’s little else standing in the way of a return trip back to Indy for some B10 Championship redemption!

How do I figure this? As near as I can tell, aside from tOSU game, the Hawks would either be favorites or no more than 2-4 point underdogs in any other game this year. And despite the Special Teams losses of Shudak and Jones, our very good defense should be even better than last year IMO, while with any luck/more experience, the offense will stay on the field longer, cashing in on more sustainable scoring drives…..perhaps a recipe for a memorable special year? Especially when a repeat B10 West title would insure a tOSU rematch, NOT in their own backyard this time?

GO HAWKS!
Does it really matter how many defenders mi lost? They'll have plenty of talent vs our offense. I'd prefer their offense lose a ton and hope for an 8-6 game! :(
 

iowaflash

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Jul 1, 2006
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Does it really matter how many defenders mi lost? They'll have plenty of talent vs our offense. I'd prefer their offense lose a ton and hope for an 8-6 game! :(
Yes, and maybe you didn’t notice that 3 of those Michigan defensive starters not returning were selected in the NFL draft within the first two rounds, and were largely responsible for Iowa getting manhandled in the B10 Championship game? Without that same Michigan defense, I more trust our returning defense with their returning offense, to keep us in the game this year at home……
 

nbanflfactory

HR Heisman
Aug 22, 2021
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Yes, and maybe you didn’t notice that 3 of those Michigan defensive starters not returning were selected in the NFL draft within the first two rounds, and were largely responsible for Iowa getting manhandled in the B10 Championship game? Without that same Michigan defense, I more trust our returning defense with their returning offense, to keep us in the game this year at home……
We did absolutely nothing vs neb and pu, you think this year's MI D won't be better than those? I bet they will be noticably better than those 2 were.

That said, they have an absolutely PATHETIC OOC!! they don't play a decent team in their 4 games before us. That combined with home field advantage should make for an interesting game.
 

rfgiowa

HR All-American
Sep 14, 2003
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Virginia
I will be more optimistic when I see Iowa's offense get to at least mediocre stats for 130 FBS schools. Heck, I would take 65 out of 130 compared to last year's stats. Cheers and GO HAWKS!

2021 stats:

total yards = 120th
total points = 94th
passing yards = 109th
rushing yards = 98th
 
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iowaflash

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Jul 1, 2006
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We did absolutely nothing vs neb and pu, you think this year's MI D won't be better than those? I bet they will be noticably better than those 2 were.

That said, they have an absolutely PATHETIC OOC!! they don't play a decent team in their 4 games before us. That combined with home field advantage should make for an interesting game.
Not sure why you keep questioning me about the 2022 version of the MI D, and cite one of the two other B10 teams that we did “absolutely nothing” against (neb), which happened to LOSE to us again for the 7th time in a row?? We only scored 3 points against the 2021 MI D because they WERE that good, in 2021. I would wager that we get more than 3 points in the 2022 rematch, with a better than average chance of winning the game outright at home, similar to how other Michigan teams have fared at Kinnick the last four times (where Michigan is 0-4 straight up). Or do you want to say now that the 2022 MI D with 3 returning starters is somehow more talented than those last four Michigan D teams that previously failed at Kinnick?
 
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nbanflfactory

HR Heisman
Aug 22, 2021
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Not sure why you keep questioning me about the 2022 version of the MI D, and cite one of the two other B10 teams that we did “absolutely nothing” against (neb), which happened to LOSE to us again for the 7th time in a row?? We only scored 3 points against the 2021 MI D because they WERE that good, in 2021. I would wager that we get more than 3 points in the 2022 rematch, with a better than average chance of winning the game outright at home, similar to how other Michigan teams have fared at Kinnick the last four times (where Michigan is 0-4 straight up). Or do you want to say now that the 2022 MI D with 3 returning starters is somehow more talented than those last four Michigan D teams that previously failed at Kinnick?
This Michigan team has a better offense than the mi teams we've beaten in recent years, so not sure what your point is.

Yes I'd also bet we score more than 3 points. Not sure what that means either ..

I'm saying just because they replace a lot if starters, that doesn't mean a whole lot. You can go ahead and disagree. We'll find out in a couple months if they have a pretty good defense or not ...
 
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bumpstock

HR MVP
Feb 27, 2018
2,132
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Arizona
I will be more optimistic when I see Iowa's offense get to at least mediocre stats for 130 FBS schools. Heck, I would take 65 out of 130 compared to last year's stats. Cheers and GO HAWKS!

2021 stats:

total yards = 120th
total points = 94th
passing yards = 109th
rushing yards = 98th
I think we'll get to 65th in Rushing Yards...that is all. Go Hawks!
 

iowaflash

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This Michigan team has a better offense than the mi teams we've beaten in recent years, so not sure what your point is.

Yes I'd also bet we score more than 3 points. Not sure what that means either ..

I'm saying just because they replace a lot if starters, that doesn't mean a whole lot. You can go ahead and disagree. We'll find out in a couple months if they have a pretty good defense or not ...
Michigan returns 7 starters on offense, and Iowa returns 8 starters on defense. At Kinnick, there will not be a huge advantage either way with this matchup in 2022 IMO. However, Iowa returns 9 starters on offense, while Michigan returns 3 on defense, as I mentioned in the very beginning. Because of how statistically challenged we were on offense in 2021, I don’t necessarily think we’ll have a strong advantage in this matchup for 2022, but I do believe a year stronger/more experienced, especially in Kinnick, does give us a slight advantage over 9 first year starters on Michigan’s D. Can we win and turn the ball over as many times as we did like in the Citrus Bowl? No. But if we play a clean, focused game with a little luck, absolutely we can make it 5-0 in Kinnick since 2009. This is my point.
 
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sober_teacher

HR Legend
Mar 26, 2007
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Michigan returns 7 starters on offense, and Iowa returns 8 starters on defense. At Kinnick, there will not be a huge advantage either way with this matchup in 2022 IMO. However, Iowa returns 9 starters on offense, while Michigan returns 3 on defense, as I mentioned in the very beginning. Because of how statistically challenged we were on offense in 2021, I don’t necessarily think we’ll have a strong advantage in this matchup for 2022, but I do believe a year stronger/more experienced, especially in Kinnick, does give us a slight advantage over 9 first year starters on Michigan’s D. Can we win and turn the ball over as many times as we did like in the Citrus Bowl? No. But if we play a clean, focused game with a little luck, absolutely we can make it 5-0 in Kinnick since 2009. This is my point.
Well, if nothing else we should be better by accident on offense this fall.

im withholding any firm opinions on my season expectations until we know for sure who the qb is. It’s leaning Petras seemingly but I don’t think they’ve reached a final decision. With Petras I think our ceiling is 9-3 and falling short of a return trip to indy. With Padilla or Labas, I think our ceiling is higher.
 
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sober_teacher

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Padilla is all in for this Fall, as he’s scheduled to graduate in December, 2022.

Yeah, it’s highly unlikely we lose anyone to transfer window at this point from the QB position.. Padilla for the reason above, Labas because Petras is a senior so he’ll be able to compete for the job again next year.
 

sober_teacher

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Let's all hope that he has a great year then gets picked high in the draft!

🙂

Just for comedy’s sake, it’s be hilarious if Spence threw for 3,000 yards and 25 TDs and then see the reaction from posters like iowalaw and others who have bashed him every chance they get the past two years.
 

Hwk-I-St8

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Nov 10, 2009
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I will be more optimistic when I see Iowa's offense get to at least mediocre stats for 130 FBS schools. Heck, I would take 65 out of 130 compared to last year's stats. Cheers and GO HAWKS!

2021 stats:

total yards = 120th
total points = 94th
passing yards = 109th
rushing yards = 98th
While I am happy to acknowledge that Iowa's offense last year was pathetic, I'd advise not using those particular stats to judge Iowa's offense. With the bend/don't break D and a ball control offense, we will almost always be terrible for total anything on offense. A much better approach is to look at pts/possession, yards/play, etc where the stats aren't skewed by our offensive style.
 

Capital1Hawk

HR All-American
Jan 23, 2007
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I will be more optimistic when I see Iowa's offense get to at least mediocre stats for 130 FBS schools. Heck, I would take 65 out of 130 compared to last year's stats. Cheers and GO HAWKS!

2021 stats:

total yards = 120th
total points = 94th
passing yards = 109th
rushing yards = 98th
Licklighter ball how exciting is that! If they weren't winning and had those stats Kinnick would be empty.
 
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uihawk82

Team MVP
Nov 17, 2021
223
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The QB question is who sticks around once a starter is named.

This has maybe been pointed out but the starting qb might not be known until the week leading up to the first game. That point in time is very late, way too late, for any player to transfer right prior to this season.
 
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Kinnick.At.Night

HR Heisman
Jun 27, 2018
9,303
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I’d give up a few losses to see Kirk win in the Horseshoe. It’s the only place in the conference he hasn’t won a game. I imagine a lot of current and former B1G coaches have similar history there.
 

DodgerHawki

HR Heisman
Nov 19, 2002
9,471
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While I am happy to acknowledge that Iowa's offense last year was pathetic, I'd advise not using those particular stats to judge Iowa's offense. With the bend/don't break D and a ball control offense, we will almost always be terrible for total anything on offense. A much better approach is to look at pts/possession, yards/play, etc where the stats aren't skewed by our offensive style.
Agreed that raw yards is not the best judge given how Iowa plays. The issue is that on those things you mentioned such as point per possession, yards per play, efficiency, etc., Iowa was also terrible last year. 90th according to Fremeau Efficiency Index on Football Outsiders. They track things like Offensive Drive Rate, Touchdown Drive Rate, Offensive Bust Rate (percentage of drives that gain zero or negative yards), etc. It's also adjusted for level of competition. Literally the only thing the Iowa offense was anything approaching good at last year was not turning the ball over.

The good news is that in the Offense FEI ratings previous years have been much better. Iowa was 64 in 2020, 53 in 2019, and 41 in 2018. So it's possible that even with the current regime Iowa can be average to kind of good on offense. That bad news is things have gotten worse over the past 2 years to falling off a cliff in 2021. Going back beyond 2018 Iowa was in the 50s/60s for 2017 and 2016, and then 38 in 2015.

What does this tell me? I'm not smart enough to make conclusions, but my un-expert analysis is that the QB play the last 2 years hasn't been very good, which is reflected in the offensive metrics. Duh.

To your original point, it's not likely that Iowa ever under KF is ever Top 20 in yards per game or any of the raw counting stats. It's not how Iowa plays, they don't have high numbers of plays and possessions per game. When you combine that with a very efficient defense, Iowa is able to get opponents into a low-possession, margin-driven game that most opponents are not comfortable playing.
 

Hwk-I-St8

HR Legend
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Nov 10, 2009
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Agreed that raw yards is not the best judge given how Iowa plays. The issue is that on those things you mentioned such as point per possession, yards per play, efficiency, etc., Iowa was also terrible last year. 90th according to Fremeau Efficiency Index on Football Outsiders. They track things like Offensive Drive Rate, Touchdown Drive Rate, Offensive Bust Rate (percentage of drives that gain zero or negative yards), etc. It's also adjusted for level of competition. Literally the only thing the Iowa offense was anything approaching good at last year was not turning the ball over.

The good news is that in the Offense FEI ratings previous years have been much better. Iowa was 64 in 2020, 53 in 2019, and 41 in 2018. So it's possible that even with the current regime Iowa can be average to kind of good on offense. That bad news is things have gotten worse over the past 2 years to falling off a cliff in 2021. Going back beyond 2018 Iowa was in the 50s/60s for 2017 and 2016, and then 38 in 2015.

What does this tell me? I'm not smart enough to make conclusions, but my un-expert analysis is that the QB play the last 2 years hasn't been very good, which is reflected in the offensive metrics. Duh.

To your original point, it's not likely that Iowa ever under KF is ever Top 20 in yards per game or any of the raw counting stats. It's not how Iowa plays, they don't have high numbers of plays and possessions per game. When you combine that with a very efficient defense, Iowa is able to get opponents into a low-possession, margin-driven game that most opponents are not comfortable playing.

Allow me to repost my comment. Note the highlighted part. You're arguing that Iowa's offense sucked with a guy who just acknowledged it sucked!

While I am happy to acknowledge that Iowa's offense last year was pathetic, I'd advise not using those particular stats to judge Iowa's offense. With the bend/don't break D and a ball control offense, we will almost always be terrible for total anything on offense. A much better approach is to look at pts/possession, yards/play, etc where the stats aren't skewed by our offensive style.
 

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