3-Year Projection. On the Rise, or Sinking Ship?

[87alum87]

First, let me say I support Coach McCaffery as he heads into this season. I'm optimistic the team will make it back to the NCAA tourney in 19. In my mind, Coach McC is several steps above Lickliter, and a step above pre-Pierce Alford. But, he is also a step behind Tom Davis, and a few behind Lute Olson. To me, the next three years will make or break his Iowa career.

Based upon the current players and committed recruits, I see the following as likely starting line-ups over the next 3 years. Obviously landing one of the long-shot 4 or 5 star forwards could change things post-Cook. It's likely the coming year will be the last for both Cook and Moss. With some speculation, this plays out as a somewhat likely 3-year scenario for starting line-ups.

18/19.....1) J.Bo (Jr.).....2) Moss (R-Jr).......3) Weiskamp (Fr).....4) Cook (Jr).......5) Garza (So)
19/20.....1) J Bo (Sr).....2) Dailey (Sr).........3) Weiskamp (So)....4) Nunge (Jr).....5) Garza (Jr)
20/21.....1) CMac(Jr)....2) Weiskamp (Jr)....3) PMac(So)............4) Nunge (Sr).....5) Garza (Sr)

I bought into the On the Rise mindset from 2011 through 2016, and was pleased with the direction of the program.

Will the next three years return to On the Rise, or will it be a Sinking Ship?

 

[Rustys Dad]

Honest opinion: I have no idea what to expect. We've had talented teams in the past that underachieved. Personally, I am "over" Fran as our coach. 8 seasons is long enough to elevate a program. The Lick years are behind us. I want Fran to succeed. I just don't have confidence he will do anything more than what he's already done. NCAA tourney this season or bust ... He needs to go dancing. No more excuses. None.

 

[Raptorpeeps]

I think we’ll be back in the tourney this year.

If not, his seat should be hot.

 

[Hawk_4shur]

I'm on the fence. 2018-2019 will probably make up my mind for me. If this team has a high number of turnovers, plays below average defense and gives up layup after layup - I'm done with Fran. He had an entire season of watching that and an entire off season to fix it. If he can't, or simply doesn't, it tells me once and for all that all he cares about is offense. That mindset will not get it done.

 

[CyberJJ]

I get Cook being gone after this year, but what feedback did Moss get in the pre-draft process that makes him believe he has a shot of going pro after this year? Maybe he is ready to head to Europe, but without a breakout year, I would expect him back in an Iowa uniform for his senior season.

 

[icwesthawk]

Leadership may be the key to this season. Baer, JBO and Cook need to really set the tone for this team. Here's to the Hawks getting some much needed direction from the guys in this very important season.

 

[And1Hawk]

I think it’s pretty clear if you look at it objectively that Iowa struggles to consistently win at a level many of it’s fans desire. The last 4 coaches spanning 29 years have made 1 sweet 16.

You mentioned Tom Davis as a ‘step ahead’of Fran. His Big Ten record post George’s players was 2 games over .500. That’s not that great. He made more NCAA tourneys but that was also in a time period where RPI was not as big of a factor. 20 wins got you a bid and you could play cream puffs in the non-con to get wins. I like Tom Davis a lot but the notion he was excelling post Ravelings recruits is a little over blown. I think the bigger picture is we have struggle most of the past 30 years with an exception here or there and it’s likely tied to inability to recruit at a higher level consistently.

Let’s see what happens this year but overall until we solve the greater systemic issues expect what we have been over the past 30 years.

 

[RocknRollface]

Leadership may be the key to this season. Baer, JBO and Cook need to really set the tone for this team. Here's to the Hawks getting some much needed direction from the guys in this very important season.

I think adequate defense is the first key, (which is going to be very difficult if Fran sticks with the same starting lineup), and whether or not we can find a ballhandler that can deal with pressure defense.

 

[iowa surfer]

I think adequate defense is the first key, (which is going to be very difficult if Fran sticks with the same starting lineup), and whether or not we can find a ballhandler that can deal with pressure defense.

Good Points...But defense as I say all the Time.Desire and Toughness.AW huh? It can improve several Big hard steps...Starts at Top no?

 

[icwesthawk]

I didn't mean to hijack the post. I would say that we clearly have taken on water but that we would be treading water with the projected lineups. Recruiting should be pretty telling as to whether we are sailing or sinking.

 

[hawkeyeguy69]

If Fran gets the PG and/or CGs that he wants & has tried to recruit in the past, I say we jump by leaps and bounds. If not, then I will still say we are on the rise from where we were at the end of last season, but maybe hitting that plateau.

We need good to great guards and wings. From what we have coming back it is questionable, other than JBo. We will see if there are others... We could have the guards and wings on the team already, if they improve, stay consistent & play good D. That is what is required to win at the level that will make me really happy...
/dead horse beating.

 

[Hawk_4shur]

I think it’s pretty clear if you look at it objectively that Iowa struggles to consistently win at a level many of it’s fans desire. The last 4 coaches spanning 29 years have made 1 sweet 16.

You mentioned Tom Davis as a ‘step ahead’of Fran. His Big Ten record post George’s players was 2 games over .500. That’s not that great. He made more NCAA tourneys but that was also in a time period where RPI was not as big of a factor. 20 wins got you a bid and you could play cream puffs in the non-con to get wins. I like Tom Davis a lot but the notion he was excelling post Ravelings recruits is a little over blown. I think the bigger picture is we have struggle most of the past 30 years with an exception here or there and it’s likely tied to inability to recruit at a higher level consistently.

Let’s see what happens this year but overall until we solve the greater systemic issues expect what we have been over the past 30 years.

Good post, except it's a lot more than the last 30 years. Iowa had a couple of great teams in the 50's, the 1970 and 1987 teams were outstanding, and the 1980 team has some magic and made it to the Final 4. Toss in a couple of other B1G co-champs and you have it. Iowa has normally been an average to above average basketball program.

Iowa basketball has been ranked 17 times at the end of the season since 1951 (68 years), and the average of those ranking was 15. They have achieved a season ending ranking in consecutive seasons only 3 times in that period (1954-56, 1981-82, and 1897- 1989).

Lute Olson is the only Iowa coach that went on to do great things, although Ralph Miller had a very good career at Oregon State.

Iowa does not have a very good basketball program, and they never have.

 

[kcgolfer]

I think the ship is listing. Can it be righted? IMO, maybe, but I thought last year was as poor of coaching job as I have seen. Things will need to be a lot better for Fran's seat not to be burning hot. Losing Carton did not help his cause, again, IMO.

 

[dawgs_04]

The starting lineups you listed are made up of nearly all players that were on the team last year. The exceptions being JW, CM, PM.

Fran is all-in with last year's roster + Joe and his kids. It's going to get really ugly if his bet doesn't work out; especially if CM/PM don't produce.

I don't have great confidence in making the tourney this year with a team full of last year's roster. The probability is so low unless Joe is a stud and CM productive.

 

[HawkAlum2002]

I get Cook being gone after this year, but what feedback did Moss get in the pre-draft process that makes him believe he has a shot of going pro after this year? Maybe he is ready to head to Europe, but without a breakout year, I would expect him back in an Iowa uniform for his senior season.

Since Moss redshirted, I'd guess he'd graduate this year and just go graduate transfer elsewhere if he's unhappy. He doesn't need to go pro to leave Iowa
after this season. There are teams he could get 15 shots a game for and play 35 minutes per game, and some of those would still be P6 schools because he does have some skills. He'll never get that with Cook, Bohannon, and presumably Weiskamp on the same court, at least if we are playing team basketball. Now if he isn't on pace to graduate after four years, then that point is moot.

 

[SDHawkDoc]

Since Moss redshirted, I'd guess he'd graduate this year and just go graduate transfer elsewhere if he's unhappy. He doesn't need to go pro to leave Iowa
after this season. There are teams he could get 15 shots a game for and play 35 minutes per game, and some of those would still be P6 schools because he does have some skills. He'll never get that with Cook, Bohannon, and presumably Weiskamp on the same court, at least if we are playing team basketball. Now if he isn't on pace to graduate after four years, then that point is moot.

Good point as to the potential to grad transfer.
I have no idea if Moss is on that track and thinking about it. But it has become so common now that it's a reasonable consideration.

 

[Hawksfor3]

They have to learn how to pick up some road wins.

 

[HoustonREDHawk]

Good, balanced OP. I was all up last year and got burned, so I am only very cautiously optimistic. You look at the players on the roster, and there is reason to think we will be considerably better, but I was really troubled by the pitiful defense and by the way that many of the players and even the coaches seemed to accept losing without a fight. If the latter continues this year, Fran better find a life boat.

 

[SDHawkDoc]

Seems to be reasonably likely they'll have a better record than last year.
Probably not resulting in a tourney bid, though.

People can say they're "done with Fran" all they want. But missing a tourney invite this coming season won't result in any change.

Personally, I'm neutral as to Fran's time at Iowa and whether or not he stays beyond next year.

 

[iahawks10]

Good point as to the potential to grad transfer.
I have no idea if Moss is on that track and thinking about it. But it has become so common now that it's a reasonable consideration.

It was a solid point about the grad transfer, but I stopped reading after the comment about getting 15 more shots a game somewhere else.

Moss could get that at Iowa with more aggression and consistency.

 

[Ihawkhoops]

Moss going to the NBA is laughable. Moss grad transferring is possible, but it will be to a program like Indiana State because no other p5 program will take a call from a wildly inconsistent scorer like Moss who has shown 0 ability to step up in close games. No doubt the kid has the talent, but he does not have a scorer's mentality and looks to defer at crunch time. I can't recall him making or even taking a big shot in a game vs. Dailey who took and made quite a few last year.

 

[icwesthawk]

Moss going to the NBA is laughable. Moss grad transferring is possible, but it will be to a program like Indiana State because no other p5 program will take a call from a wildly inconsistent scorer like Moss who has shown 0 ability to step up in close games. No doubt the kid has the talent, but he does not have a scorer's mentality and looks to defer at crunch time. I can't recall him making or even taking a big shot in a game vs. Dailey who took and made quite a few last year.

Nobody from a power 5 conference would take him = fake news.

 

[jasonrann]

Leadership may be the key to this season. Baer, JBO and Cook need to really set the tone for this team. Here's to the Hawks getting some much needed direction from the guys in this very important season.

This.

With the depth of our roster, Fran should have all the leverage he needs to get guys to produce….MINUTES. Your reward for slop, jagging it back on defense or for not boxing out your man is a seat on the bench, I don’t care who it is. Instead of talking about doing the right things, they need to do them. I am particularly excited to see what JW brings to the table. He seems like a tireless worker and appears to be one of the most polished recruits we’ve had in a long time. I hope he can hit the ground running.

All of this is moot if the coaches aren’t doing their jobs, especially on the defensive side. If we see another year like last year, this becomes the Titanic IMO.

 

[Ihawkhoops]

Nobody from a power 5 conference would take him = fake news.

Do you really think Fran would land a P5 job based on his Iowa resume? Maybe and this is a big maybe, a school like Boston College who has bottomed out, but no program serious about competing for anything of relevance. Fran is about as marketable to a P5 program as Miles and Chambers.

 

[icwesthawk]

Power 5, rebuilding, program would take Fran no problem. His problem may be that by the time Iowa gets tired of him or he gets tired of us, he may be a little old. Fran has a much better resume that either Miles or Chambers.

 

[Ihawkhoops]

Power 5, rebuilding, program would take Fran no problem. His problem may be that by the time Iowa gets tired of him or he gets tired of us, he may be a little old. Fran has a much better resume that either Miles or Chambers.

Two NCAA wins in 8 years is not a ringing endorsement. A Fran hire excites 0% of a fan base. Much better to take a younger coach who will make the changes necessary to win vs. Fran with the same staff, approach, and deficiencies. Put Fran in the Horizon League or MVC and he can probably compete with the talent he can recruit. Put him another P5 job and it will be a repeat of what we have seen the past 8 years.

 

[BlackNGoldBleeder]

I would say neither.

They're will be some ebb and flow, as normal, and outliers like last season, but overall I think we've seen about where the peak is at for this program.

In other words, the team will generally range from NIT to an at large tournament team. So the latter Dr. Tom years.

 

[hawkfan1963]

I get Cook being gone after this year, but what feedback did Moss get in the pre-draft process that makes him believe he has a shot of going pro after this year? Maybe he is ready to head to Europe, but without a breakout year, I would expect him back in an Iowa uniform for his senior season.

If they have success and fun this year maybe Cook decides to stay for his senior season since his degree would be so close to achieving.

 

[hawkfan1963]

Leadership may be the key to this season. Baer, JBO and Cook need to really set the tone for this team. Here's to the Hawks getting some much needed direction from the guys in this very important season.

All 3 listed definitely need to lead and ignite. I AM a Baer fan but maybe he peaked 2 years ago. If he struggles in the pre-conference season, he minutes should be shortened.

 

[The Deplorable Sleeping Dog]

Dr. Davis' record over the 10 seasons after the last of George's recruits left campus is still better than any Iowa coach since. Better percentage, more total wins, more NCAA wins (than all of the Iowa coaches collectively since) and the last Sweet 16.

To me that really says all anyone needs to know about the state of Iowa basketball. However, Iowa is going to field its most highly recruited line up since the class of 89 graduated in 2018-2019. If Joe W starts ahead of the Baer every Iowa starter will be an ESPN 4* recruit. That kind of talent should win. I think they will be back in the NCAA. When was the last time Iowa started five guys that were all rated no lower than 120 nationally by any one recruiting service?

 

[dawgs_04]

Sorry we can't cherry pick ESPN rankings for Moss and JBo. Their composite is much lower.

JW TC and LG rankings are consistently high which is great!

 

[CO_hawk]

Moss going to the NBA is laughable. Moss grad transferring is possible, but it will be to a program like Indiana State because no other p5 program will take a call from a wildly inconsistent scorer like Moss who has shown 0 ability to step up in close games. No doubt the kid has the talent, but he does not have a scorer's mentality and looks to defer at crunch time. I can't recall him making or even taking a big shot in a game vs. Dailey who took and made quite a few last year.

He made all of the big shots in the Minnesota game. Sporadic last year, just like Marble, Uthoff and Jok were the years before they all took off.

 

[LaQuintaHawkeye]

I think we’ll be back in the tourney this year.

If not, his seat should be hot.

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst...(see my sig below)

 

[Ihawkhoops]

He made all of the big shots in the Minnesota game. Sporadic last year, just like Marble, Uthoff and Jok were the years before they all took off.

True, but as I have stated in other posts, Moss is great in blowout games up or down, but not in contested games. Far too often he is sitting next to Fran or deferring to Bohannon with under 10 on the shot clock when stuff is run for him to get a shot.

 

[ParkerHawk]

Perennial bubble team

 

[CO_hawk]

True, but as I have stated in other posts, Moss is great in blowout games up or down, but not in contested games. Far too often he is sitting next to Fran or deferring to Bohannon with under 10 on the shot clock when stuff is run for him to get a shot.

Agree, but until proven otherwise I'm going to predict Moss to be the next Jok/Uthoff/White/Marble/Gatens. Maybe it's not Moss, as Cook or Bohannon could be that guy this year.

 

[djhoops515]

If we do not make the tourney is next 2 years its not Frans fault but I am sure we will blame him. Doubt he makes it much longer if we dont make the tourney.

 

[RocknRollface]

He made all of the big shots in the Minnesota game. Sporadic last year, just like Marble, Uthoff and Jok were the years before they all took off.

It's all about ball handling for Moss offensively.

Hes athletic, a good shooter and pretty decent finisher at the rim but it's the ability to get to the rim from the outside where he struggles.

 

[HawkLogic]

Since Moss redshirted, I'd guess he'd graduate this year and just go graduate transfer elsewhere if he's unhappy. He doesn't need to go pro to leave Iowa
after this season. There are teams he could get 15 shots a game for and play 35 minutes per game, and some of those would still be P6 schools because he does have some skills. He'll never get that with Cook, Bohannon, and presumably Weiskamp on the same court, at least if we are playing team basketball. Now if he isn't on pace to graduate after four years, then that point is moot.

Moss is not getting 15 shots a game at Iowa because he has a terrible dribble drive game in 1/2 court. All he can do is shoot 3pt shots and long 2 pt'ers. Moss has gone off a few times...so did Josh Ogelsby and even Ellingson.

As to program trend...I don't see this squad winning enough games to make NCAA tourney. It would take surprise player development from Moss, Dailey, Nunge, Kreiner and JoeW to be a stud Freshman and Baer to get his 3pt shot back and no injuries to Jaybo, Cook...and then also a jump in team defense. Lot of moving parts have to go right.

 

[Raptorpeeps]

If we do not make the tourney in next 2 years its not Frans fault but I am sure we will blame him. Doubt he makes it much longer if we dont make the tourney.

Who’s fault would it be?