4th and 4 or 3rd and 13?

[His Hawkness]

I know it doesn't matter now, but i couldn't believe we took the penalty against Nebraska to make it 3rd and 13. After we stuffed TA on third down, we should have made it 4th down and make Nebraska have to make a decision of going for it or kicking a FG.

 

[Hawk_4shur]

You're right - it doesn't matter. At the time I remember I thought it was 50/50.

 

[BioHawk]

I would not have accepted the penalty (then again, I'm not a coach so what I would do matters even less than the outcome of that single play call). If I had to guess, I think the penalty knocked them out of field goal range so I'm guessing that's what he was hoping for.

 

[NashvilleHawk]

Nebraska was probably going for it on 4th down regardless, so in that situation, I understood why.
Most times you decline the penalty.

 

[gojojo]

tough call. Putting TA in that down and distance in those conditions it was 50/50 he would throw it to an Iowa player.

I still can't believe Nebraska was so confident with that guy at QB.

 

[OC_Hawk]

I don't mind accepting the penalty there. I don't know how in-tune the staff is with advanced analytics, but even if they were just going by gut I don't think they were necessarily wrong.

I think it was assumed that Nebraska would be going for it on 4th down. This study says that odds of converting on 4th & 4 is over 47%. If that is true (no idea how accurate that is), then you probably like your chances better by backing them up and trying to stop them considering that even with Nebraska's big yardage totals in the game, they "only" averaged 5.2 yards per play. If you hold them to a 5 yard gain on 3rd down you're looking at significantly better chance of stopping them on 4th & 8 than at 4th & 4. Watch Tommy Armpunt throw another incomplete pass and your odds skyrocket to 83% chance of stopping them on 4th & 13.

 

[El Simbolo]

Judging by what they did s few plays later I think they would have tried a FG. or was that penalty on the previous drive where they eventually threw the terrible fade route on 4th?

 

[ichawk24]

I was really surprised we took the penalty. It would have been 4th and 4or5 from the 42or43 yard line. No FG opportunity, and I like one play to stop them.

 

[LinusPF]

Judging by what they did s few plays later I think they would have tried a FG. or was that penalty on the previous drive where they eventually threw the terrible fade route on 4th?

This was the fade route drive I believe.
To me it looked like they were starting to walk off the field, thinking we were going to decline leaving them fourth and four. I think it would have been to punt though. I don't think they were in field-goal position.