Ferentz is not Custer and Campbell is not Sitting Bull. This game will be a stiff test for Iowa, but Iowa State is not as robust as any top tier Big Ten team. In fact, if ISU was in the Big Ten West I'm confident they could beat Illinois - and I think they could give Purdue, Nebraska and Minnesota fits as well...but I do not see the Cyclones in the same class and Wisconsin and Iowa, or even Northwestern.
The bottom line is this, and every Cyclone coach, player and fan knows this deep down...Iowa State will show up Saturday as I always expect them to do under Campbell going forward, but I can not honestly give the Cyclones better than a 1 in 4 chance in Kinnick tomorrow.
Iowa State 20 Iowa 34