73% chance Gonzaga beats Iowa

[OnceAhawk]

FiveThirtyEight's men's and women's NCAA tournament forecasting models calculate the chance of each team reaching each round, taking into account a composite of:

*power rankings
*pre-season rankings
*the team's placement on the NCAA's S-curve
*player injuries and
*geography, where data is available.

Iowa has a 62% chance of beating Davidson and a 14% chance of advancing to the Sweet 16.

Gonzaga, on the other hand, has an 80% chance of reaching the Sweet 16

Kentucky has a 41% chance of winning the national title; Villanova 11%;
Wisconsin 10%; Arizona 10%; Virgina 7%; Duke 6%; Gonzaga 3%; Iowa State
2%; Kansas 1%; Iowa, less than 1%.

Check it all out here:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/march-madness-predictions-2015/#mens

This post was edited on 3/19 2:17 AM by OnceAhawk

This post was edited on 3/22 1:50 PM by OnceAhawk

 

[dawgs_04]

Re: Iowa has 14% chance making Sweet 16

So about 22% chance against Gonzaga if we meet them. Nice to have a chance for once!
Posted from Rivals Mobile

 

[ichawk24]

Re: Iowa has 14% chance making Sweet 16

Kenpom has similar numbers.
Posted from Rivals Mobile

 

[Jackorama]

Re: Iowa has 14% chance making Sweet 16


So you're saying there's a chance...

 

[OnceAhawk]

Re: Iowa has 14% chance making Sweet 16

Originally posted by ichawk24:
Kenpom has similar numbers.
Posted from Rivals Mobile

of course some things change now that IS-Who is out

 

[OnceAhawk]

Re: Iowa has 14% chance making Sweet 16

check out the link in the orig post, you can move the time line from current to initial ,where you will seed that ISU had a 91% chance of beating UAB

so, yeah, this is MARCH MADNESS.....and MARCH SADNESS for the losing teams and their fans

 

[BubsFinn]

I'd say Villanova's, Virginia's, and Iowa State's chances are considerably less than Iowa's right now.

 

[hawkeye ball]

March Madness....it's not what you've done, it's what you do TODAY!

Go Hawks!

 

[QChawks]

Originally posted by Jackorama:

So you're saying there's a chance...

Posted from Rivals Mobile

 

[CoachoftheFuture1]

GIGO: Garbage in, garbage out.

 

[DanL53]

Good. This fits my idea of the perfect scenario. We are supposed to lose. It will pretty much be a home game for Gonzaga. And hopefully we get a wild hair in our nether regions.

 

[OnceAhawk]

Originally posted by BubsFinn:
I'd say Villanova's, Virginia's, and Iowa State's chances are considerably less than Iowa's right now.