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96.3 mph. Wow. Brody Brecht is a Potential Top 5 Round MLB Draft Pick

I’ll be shocked and disappointed if Brecht is still there at 17. If he builds on last season at all, I think he goes top 10 and if he falls to 14, I really want the Cubs to take him.
His FB and slider are graded at 70 each, If He stays healthy and is around the zone and keeps His walk rate down He will go in the top 5
 
PBR had him at #10, and Perfect Game had him at #7 on their latest projections.
 
His FB and slider are graded at 70 each, If He stays healthy and is around the zone and keeps His walk rate down He will go in the top 5
Absolutely. His arm talent is off the charts. Command is the biggest issue and teams roll with lack of command on top arm talent all the time. Cubs took Cade Horton in the 2022 draft based on throwing 53 innings at Oklahoma with an ERA north of 4 because he was finally healthy in his last CWS and dominating. He’s currently flying through the Cubs system. Arm talent like Brody’s is coveted in a big, big way.

Cubs probably won’t get him, but I hope he goes to a team that knows what the hell they’re doing with pitchers and not a team that’s going to eff up that arm.
 
Absolutely. His arm talent is off the charts. Command is the biggest issue, and teams roll with lack of command on top arm talent all the time. Cubs took Cade Horton in the 2022 draft based on throwing 53 innings at Oklahoma with an ERA north of 4 because he was finally healthy in his last CWS and dominating. He’s currently flying through the Cubs system. Arm talent like Brody’s is coveted in a big, big way.

Cubs probably won’t get him, but I hope he goes to a team that knows what the hell they’re doing with pitchers and not a team that’s going to eff up that arm.
Yeah unless he gets hurt I would be shocked to see him last past the 10th pick. If he shows better command you will start hearing people talking about taking him with the first pick. In an era of big arms BB’s stands out. As Crash Davis said to Nuke Laloosh in Bull Durham “When Brody was a baby the gods reached down and turned his right arm into a thunderbolt.”
 
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I am an oldster and remember Koufax and Nolan Ryan. Ryan was in the bigs for 15 years before his walks/inning got down to about 2/3 per inning. He pretty much averaged about 9Ks per 9 innings for most years. His ERA was only under 3 in 3 of his 28 years.
Koufax was in the bigs for 12 years before he go his ERA down to consistently under 2.0 or so. His era was aroung 4.0 or worse his first 5 years AND he was in the iron-man pitching era with only 4 starters most of the time and he pitched around 38 games per year his first 5 full time years. He was much better than Ryan all the way around with walks still around 4.4 to 6 per game his first 5 years. He got that down to 1.7 to 2.8 his last and best years.

So all I am saying is these fireballers seem to always start out a little wild (or way wild) and get the walks down over the years.
 
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#18 Iowa lost to Auburn yesterday, 7-5.

Iowa led 3-2 after 6 innings (when Brody Brecht exited the game).

Brody's line:
6 innings pitched
25 batters faced
99 pitches (60 strikes, 39 balls)

2 Hits allowed
4 walks
0 Wild pitches
0 Hit batters

11 strike outs

1 earned run (of the 2 scored by Auburn thru 6 innings)

1.74 ERA for the season

Some highlights:





GHE2V3_WcAAAd5-
 
Brody Brecht got the start today in Iowa's 13-7 win at Ole Miss.

Brody pitched 5 complete innings; Iowa led 5-2 after he exited the game. The Iowa bull pen took over in the 6th inning.

Brody's line:
5 innings pitched
25 batters faced
103 pitches (61 strikes, 42 balls)

5 Hits allowed
2 walks
1 Wild pitch
2 Hit batters

11 strike outs

1 earned run

1.40 WHIP for this game (2 walks + 5 hits / 5 innings pitched). In the Major Leagues, the average WHIP is around 1.30.

1.76 ERA for the season
 
Brody Brecht got the start today in Iowa's 13-7 win at Ole Miss.

Brody pitched 5 complete innings; Iowa led 5-2 after he exited the game. The Iowa bull pen took over in the 6th inning.

Brody's line:
5 innings pitched
25 batters faced
103 pitches (61 strikes, 42 balls)

5 Hits allowed
2 walks
1 Wild pitch
2 Hit batters

11 strike outs

1 earned run

1.40 WHIP for this game (2 walks + 5 hits / 5 innings pitched). In the Major Leagues, the average WHIP is around 1.30.

1.76 ERA for the season
He has 33 Ks in 15.1 innings this year, which is tremendous. His next step will be to get a little more efficient. Ideally, he should be able to go 6-7 innings but he’s burning 100 pitches on 5. It’s not a rare thing, power pitchers go through this. His arm talent and his stuff is still absolutely off the charts.
 
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Brody Brecht got the start Friday, March 8th in Iowa's 5-4 loss at Jacksonville State.

Brody pitched 4 complete innings. After 4 innings, Iowa led 2-0.

They started the top of the 5th inning and then the rain & lightning came. The game was suspended and resumed the next day.

The Iowa bullpen took over the next day in the bottom of the 5th inning. The bullpen gave up 1 run in the 6th and 1 run in the 8th. Iowa led 4-2 heading into the bottom of the 9th but the bullpen gave up 3 runs, resulting in the 5-4 loss.

Brody's line:
4 innings pitched
18 batters faced
72 pitches (41 strikes, 31 balls)

1 Hit allowed
3 walks
1 Wild pitch
1 Hit batter


9 strike outs

0 earned runs

1.00 WHIP for this game (3 walks + 1 hit / 4 innings pitched). In the Major Leagues, the average WHIP is around 1.30.

1.24 WHIP for the season
(15 walks + 9 hits / 19.33 innings pitched). In the Major Leagues, the average WHIP is around 1.30.

1.16 ERA for the season
 
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From game accounts the bullpen must be really struggling.
The bullpen has been atrocious…but also, this points out some of the risk/reward with Brecht. He’s just not getting hit at all and he’s racking up Ks, but ideally, your ace would get through 5-7 innings on 80 pitches and too often Brody isn’t finishing the 5th. The raw stuff is incredible, though.

For anyone interested, I’m about 10 min away from interviewing Greg Zumach of Northside Bound and the Cubs on Deck podcast. We’re going to talk a little Cubs prospect stuff from spring training, then pivot to college ball and what he’s watching this time of year as he ramps up his MLB draft coverage prep. A lot of mocks are pushing Brecht to the Cubs or very near that point in the first, so he’s definitely one we’ll talk about. I always put the link to my pod in the Cubs thread, but could also drop the episode here if there’s interest from people who don’t swim through the Cubs season thread on the OT board.
 
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The bullpen has been atrocious…but also, this points out some of the risk/reward with Brecht. He’s just not getting hit at all and he’s racking up Ks, but ideally, your ace would get through 5-7 innings on 80 pitches and too often Brody isn’t finishing the 5th. The raw stuff is incredible, though.

For anyone interested, I’m about 10 min away from interviewing Greg Zumach of Northside Bound and the Cubs on Deck podcast. We’re going to talk a little Cubs prospect stuff from spring training, then pivot to college ball and what he’s watching this time of year as he ramps up his MLB draft coverage prep. A lot of mocks are pushing Brecht to the Cubs or very near that point in the first, so he’s definitely one we’ll talk about. I always put the link to my pod in the Cubs thread, but could also drop the episode here if there’s interest from people who don’t swim through the Cubs season thread on the OT board.
would love a link
 
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would love a link
Here it is. We wound up talking spring training performance and recent draft trends for the Cubs longer than I planned, but I think it’s good discussion. If you want to skip ahead to the Brecht talk, go to about the 45:45 mark.

 
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The bullpen has been atrocious…but also, this points out some of the risk/reward with Brecht. He’s just not getting hit at all and he’s racking up Ks, but ideally, your ace would get through 5-7 innings on 80 pitches and too often Brody isn’t finishing the 5th. The raw stuff is incredible, though.

For anyone interested, I’m about 10 min away from interviewing Greg Zumach of Northside Bound and the Cubs on Deck podcast. We’re going to talk a little Cubs prospect stuff from spring training, then pivot to college ball and what he’s watching this time of year as he ramps up his MLB draft coverage prep. A lot of mocks are pushing Brecht to the Cubs or very near that point in the first, so he’s definitely one we’ll talk about. I always put the link to my pod in the Cubs thread, but could also drop the episode here if there’s interest from people who don’t swim through the Cubs season thread on the OT board.

by the way, what do you think about these numbers?

1.24 WHIP for the season (15 walks + 9 hits / 19.33 innings pitched). In the Major Leagues, the average WHIP is around 1.30.

1.16 ERA for the season
 
by the way, what do you think about these numbers?

1.24 WHIP for the season (15 walks + 9 hits / 19.33 innings pitched). In the Major Leagues, the average WHIP is around 1.30.

1.16 ERA for the season
I think the numbers are good overall, but don’t love the walk numbers, obviously plus the 6 HBP. For me, the biggest thing is the lack of efficiency - unhittable, mostly, but he’s only getting through 5 and leaving pressure on the pen.
 
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I think the numbers are good overall, but don’t love the walk numbers, obviously plus the 6 HBP. For me, the biggest thing is the lack of efficiency - unhittable, mostly, but he’s only getting through 5 and leaving pressure on the pen.
Is he projected as a starter or reliever/closer in MLB? It seems he needs to cut back on walks and not rely on strikeouts so much. Strikeouts are great, but tend to work up the pitch count. I'm thinking he'll eventually work these out or he will end up in the bull pen. IDK though.
 
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Is he projected as a starter or reliever/closer in MLB? It seems he needs to cut back on walks and not rely on strikeouts so much. Strikeouts are great, but tend to work up the pitch count. I'm thinking he'll eventually work these out or he will end up in the bull pen. IDK though.
Greg Zumach and I talked about that on the pod this week. Everyone sees the starting potential. He can maintain velo well past 90 pitches, which is very valuable. He’s projected by everyone to go in the first round and if he wasn’t projected as a starter, he’d be drafted later.

One thing that probably helps his stock is that even if a team has concerns about whether he’ll stick, he has a pretty high floor because his stuff is flat-out nasty and should absolutely play in the back of a bullpen.
 
I think the numbers are good overall, but don’t love the walk numbers, obviously plus the 6 HBP. For me, the biggest thing is the lack of efficiency - unhittable, mostly, but he’s only getting through 5 and leaving pressure on the pen.

Speaking of walks & not eating up innings....

Brody got the start Friday, March 15th in Iowa's 11-1 win vs Western Illinois.

Brody started the top of the 5th with Iowa leading 3-1. The 1st Western Illinois batter doubled. Brody WALKED the next 2 batters, LOADING the bases. Heller then went to the bullpen & brought in Young, who got Iowa out of the jam, not allowing any runs to score.


Brody's line:
4 innings pitched
23 batters faced
100 pitches (58 strikes, 42 balls)

4 Hits allowed
6 walks
1 Wild pitch

0 Hit batters
0 Balks


8 strike outs

1 earned run

2.50 WHIP for this game (6 walks + 4 hits / 4 innings pitched). In the Major Leagues, the average WHIP is around 1.30.


In 5 starts and 23.33 innings pitched:

1.46 WHIP for the season
(21 walks + 13 hits / 23.33 innings pitched). In the Major Leagues, the average WHIP is around 1.30.

1.54 ERA for the season
 
Brody Brecht got the start in today's 10-3 loss at Purdue.

Brody pitched 5 complete innings; Iowa trailed 6-1 after 5 innings. The Iowa bullpen took over in the bottom of the 6th with Iowa still trailing 6-1.

Brody's line:
5 innings pitched
27 batters faced
108 pitches (64 strikes, 44 balls)

7 Hits allowed
3 walks
0 Wild pitches
1 Hit batter
0 Balks


3 strike outs

3 earned runs (of the 6)

2.00 WHIP for this game (3 walks + 7 hits / 5 innings pitched). In the Major Leagues, the average WHIP is around 1.30.


In 6 starts and 28.33 innings pitched:

1.55 WHIP for the season
(24 walks + 20 hits / 28.33 innings pitched). In the Major Leagues, the average WHIP is around 1.30.

2.22 ERA for the season
 
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