96.3 mph. Wow. Brody Brecht is a Potential Top 5 Round MLB Draft Pick

Kinnick.At.Night

HR Heisman
Jun 27, 2018
9,244
18,287
113
Location Location Location

I went to a clinic in high school with a former Cy Young Award winner. He spoke about control and throwing strikes. And he described throwing into nine zones within the strike zone. And studying the tendencies and statistics of hitters intimately. I realized at that moment that I'd never be a big league pitcher.
 

HumbleP1e

HR All-American
Jan 11, 2003
4,053
1,468
113
Not to downplay the velocity, it is elite, but movement is what makes a pitcher elite, not velocity.
Straight as an arrow heat is a hindrance to MLB success. Good call.

Unofficial numbers but MLB Network on XM said today that in 2000, the average fastball was not quite 89 mph. In 2010, it was not quite 92. Today, it's 94.6 or something. That is the average. I have not seen Brecht pitch. But, his velocity basically hits today's floor for middle relievers. My favorite team's bullpen has more who got 100 than don't. Many starters today have off speed that nears 90. Most passive baseball fans don't realize the change.

A second tidbit shared is that in 2000, the fastball was thrown 60-some percent of the time. Now, it's under 50%, and each type of offspeed offering is up: sliders, curves, splitters,and changes. So, if you're wondering why MLB's batting average after one week is .235...know it's damn tough to hit today. Higher velo and greater frequency for shit pitches, not to mention the amount of pitching changes. You hit .300+ today, you good, son.
 
Last edited:

mazda1

HR All-American
Sep 22, 2015
2,633
2,946
113
If a high schooler can throw at the average speed of a major league reliever I’d guess he’s got a future in the game.

I’ve got no dog in this fight, but I don’t see a reason to bash an Iowa commit or downplay his achievements.
 
  • Like
Reactions: tick2266

squeezebox

HR MVP
Mar 6, 2018
2,028
2,369
113
Wow. Attack the person not the argument. An old tactic often employed by the unsure.
It was an old tactic to begin with, " back in the day." LOL, well back in the day there was laxed drug testing, more fastballs thrown (less torque on the elbow), oh not to mention that only half of the population was allowed to play. We are talking about the now, not the then, so the argument holds zero water.
 

HawkPT

HR MVP
Dec 13, 2002
1,420
953
113
It was an old tactic to begin with, " back in the day." LOL, well back in the day there was laxed drug testing, more fastballs thrown (less torque on the elbow), oh not to mention that only half of the population was allowed to play. We are talking about the now, not the then, so the argument holds zero water.
The most recent research actually shows two things: fastballs stress the UCL more than offspeed pitches and breaking balls and those who throw harder have more UCL stress. All of these findings, of course, are most likely influenced by other factors (i.e. mechanics).
 
  • Like
Reactions: pink shizzle

squeezebox

HR MVP
Mar 6, 2018
2,028
2,369
113
Last edited:

AuroraHawk

HR Heisman
Dec 18, 2004
6,173
7,957
113
If a high schooler can throw at the average speed of a major league reliever I’d guess he’s got a future in the game.

I’ve got no dog in this fight, but I don’t see a reason to bash an Iowa commit or downplay his achievements.

Questioning the accuracy of reports that Brecht is hitting 96+ mph after throwing 100 pitches is "bashing an Iowa commit" or "downplaying his acheivements?"
 

anon_bb9wlf9kj42py

HR All-American
Nov 28, 2005
3,673
1,053
113
You endorse to the current method of pitching. Many would agree with you. Guys like Tom House and Nolan Ryan from the old school would disagree with what you're saying.

Guys like Kerry Wood and Mark Prior who had their arms destroyed by Dusty Baker before he understood pitch counts would disagree with them.

I think I'd tend to disagree with this. Something that has remained largely the same among the major American sports is pitching speed. Training has certainly made them stronger. Maybe with more muscle, I don't know. They're not throwing any harder though.

This is completely false. They're throwing much harder much more often.

https://www.mlb.com/cut4/are-pitchers-really-throwing-harder-than-ever-c292153594
 

Kinnick.At.Night

HR Heisman
Jun 27, 2018
9,244
18,287
113
Guys like Kerry Wood and Mark Prior who had their arms destroyed by Dusty Baker before he understood pitch counts would disagree with them.

Meanwhile scores of other pitchers in the past threw more pitches than Woor or Prior ever did and never got hurt. So, what's to be concluded?


This is completely false. They're throwing much harder much more often.

https://www.mlb.com/cut4/are-pitchers-really-throwing-harder-than-ever-c292153594

I was referring to peak speeds. The fastest pitchers today aren't any faster than the fastest pitchers from 50 years ago. The limits of the human arm in terms of speed were reached long, long ago.
 

AuroraHawk

HR Heisman
Dec 18, 2004
6,173
7,957
113
I think I'd tend to disagree with this. Something that has remained largely the same among the major American sports is pitching speed. Training has certainly made them stronger. Maybe with more muscle, I don't know. They're not throwing any harder though.

Boy . . . I'd sure like to see what you've got which suggests that pitching speeds have not increased over the decades.
 

HawkPT

HR MVP
Dec 13, 2002
1,420
953
113
Boy . . . I'd sure like to see what you've got which suggests that pitching speeds have not increased over the decades.
Absolute top end velocity has likely not increased much, but average FB speed across the league has increased significantly in the past decade or two. I don't have the data, but I'm sure the same is true for HS pitchers.

Though the top limit may not have increased much, many more are able to get closer to that limit today and earlier than ever before, which is part of the reason elbow injuries are increasing.
 
  • Like
Reactions: squeezebox

Kinnick.At.Night

HR Heisman
Jun 27, 2018
9,244
18,287
113
Though the top limit may not have increased much, many more are able to get closer to that limit today and earlier than ever before, which is part of the reason elbow injuries are increasing.

Starting pitchers today don’t have to pace themselves like they used to. They also have less workload, and probably, less fatigue. That, IMO, is why average fastball speeds are up. With that said, what’s healthier? A guy throwing well over 100 pitches while pacing his velocity or a guy consistently throwing close to max knowing that he’s got plenty of gas to make it to his pitch limit? Like I said, it’s new school vs old school. Both styles wreck arms of the unfortunate.
 

squeezebox

HR MVP
Mar 6, 2018
2,028
2,369
113
Starting pitchers today don’t have to pace themselves like they used to. They also have less workload, and probably, less fatigue. That, IMO, is why average fastball speeds are up. With that said, what’s healthier? A guy throwing well over 100 pitches while pacing his velocity or a guy consistently throwing close to max knowing that he’s got plenty of gas to make it to his pitch limit? Like I said, it’s new school vs old school. Both styles wreck arms of the unfortunate.
You know what has changed though, the amount of usage on the arms from a young age. It's known mechanics play a role as well, but certainly young athletes placing strain on their arms with no rest from a young age inevitably causes arm problems down the road.
 

mazda1

HR All-American
Sep 22, 2015
2,633
2,946
113
Questioning the accuracy of reports that Brecht is hitting 96+ mph after throwing 100 pitches is "bashing an Iowa commit" or "downplaying his acheivements?"

A couple of things.

I began the post with the word IF.

The ensuing discussion focused on movement and location being key as well which we can all agree are additional needs. My point was if a kid has a major league fastball as a high school junior that is going to attract attention. Rather then listing all the perceived shortcomings of a high school athlete who is an Iowa commit I’d rather see us excited about getting such a live arm if he decides that he wants to play baseball too.

If we talk about the strengths and weakness of an offer list that’s one thing, but when a kid says he’s coming to the Hawks I rather see us back him and give him a chance to actually show results on the field. The coaches see something in everyone they offer and I’ll defer to their expertise.
 

AuroraHawk

HR Heisman
Dec 18, 2004
6,173
7,957
113
Rather then listing all the perceived shortcomings of a high school athlete who is an Iowa commit I’d rather see us excited about getting such a live arm if he decides that he wants to play baseball too.

Who posted about any "perceived shortcomings" when it comes to Brody Brecht?

If Brody Brecht is throwing 91-93 mph consistently and has demonstrated the ability to harness that velocity, he's got D-1 talent and - consistent with what I posted earlier - the combination of Langenberg, Payne and Brecht could form a solid group of recruits from our state.

Just because I'm not buying the "he hit 98 on the gun" and "was consistently above 95-96 after throwing 100+ pitches" is in no way critical of the athlete.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 2bagger22

katman15

HR MVP
Gold Member
Dec 3, 2014
2,269
2,406
113
68
Meanwhile scores of other pitchers in the past threw more pitches than Woor or Prior ever did and never got hurt. So, what's to be concluded?




I was referring to peak speeds. The fastest pitchers today aren't any faster than the fastest pitchers from 50 years ago. The limits of the human arm in terms of speed were reached long, long ago.
There is just more pitchers with velo now. Nolan Ryan threw hard and was able to go deep,real deep multiple times in the 140-150 pitch range....I get it he was the exception but the guy just never seem to get hurt.
I think the slide has more to do with arm injuries than anything else along with guys go to the opposite side of the rubber for deception reasons, just my opinion
 

HumbleP1e

HR All-American
Jan 11, 2003
4,053
1,468
113
Boy . . . I'd sure like to see what you've got which suggests that pitching speeds have not increased over the decades.
Indeed. MLB Network and the entire stat head industry study statistical data without end looking for edges and tells. They unquestionably support the growth in mph as well as the numbers of arms who do it.

To say otherwise Is to say you don't need air to breathe.
 

Kinnick.At.Night

HR Heisman
Jun 27, 2018
9,244
18,287
113
Interesting conversation here. Something else to consider in all of this is PITCHf/x vs. Statcast for determining the speed of pitched balls. Statcast reads slightly higher than PITCHf/x for the exact same throw. It's also worth noting that PITCHf/x only came into play in 2006. Before that, pitching speeds were subject to variation because there wasn't a standardized system. You had old guns, new guns, different gun manufacturers and different gun locations used to make league wide assessments on velocity. Detroit's notorious stadium radar gun is a good example. Guys threw 1-3 mph harder in Detroit than anywhere else. Joel Zumaya used to joke about it.

PITCHf/x vs. Statcast

https://www.usatoday.com/story/spor...ngs-up-with-mlb-change-to-statcast/100205144/
 

HawkPT

HR MVP
Dec 13, 2002
1,420
953
113
You know what has changed though, the amount of usage on the arms from a young age. It's known mechanics play a role as well, but certainly young athletes placing strain on their arms with no rest from a young age inevitably causes arm problems down the road.
I saw a graphic once that showed where pitchers with at least 200 wins (I think) in MLB grew up. It was disproportionately skewed towards the midwest and northeast.
 

HawkPT

HR MVP
Dec 13, 2002
1,420
953
113
There is just more pitchers with velo now. Nolan Ryan threw hard and was able to go deep,real deep multiple times in the 140-150 pitch range....I get it he was the exception but the guy just never seem to get hurt.
I think the slide has more to do with arm injuries than anything else along with guys go to the opposite side of the rubber for deception reasons, just my opinion
Crazy stat. In 1974, Nolan Ryan threw a 13-inning complete game and dealt something like 238 pitches that night.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Kinnick.At.Night

Kinnick.At.Night

HR Heisman
Jun 27, 2018
9,244
18,287
113
Crazy stat. In 1974, Nolan Ryan threw a 13-inning complete game and dealt something like 238 pitches that night.

That's the same year Ryan was clocked at 100.9 mph ten feet in front of home plate. No comparison has been made to determine if the system used to clock Ryan that night accurately compares to Statcast. But, if their data are similar, Ryan's pitch would read around 108 mph today. The same can be said for Bob Feller's 98.6 mph fastball that was clocked just behind the plate.
 

HumbleP1e

HR All-American
Jan 11, 2003
4,053
1,468
113
That's the same year Ryan was clocked at 100.9 mph ten feet in front of home plate. No comparison has been made to determine if the system used to clock Ryan that night accurately compares to Statcast. But, if their data are similar, Ryan's pitch would read around 108 mph today. The same can be said for Bob Feller's 98.6 mph fastball that was clocked just behind the plate.
The difference, regardless of the exact numbers, is that in those eras these few pitchers were anomalies. Today, "everyone" hits trip digits.

Back on point, it's no knock on Brecht. He is a stud. My point a page or so ago was simply that hitting 96 isn't as unusual today as it would have been even a decade ago. He will likely add velo as most kids do as they mature. He may eventually be an outlier which would be awesome.
 

Kinnick.At.Night

HR Heisman
Jun 27, 2018
9,244
18,287
113
The difference, regardless of the exact numbers, is that in those eras these few pitchers were anomalies. Today, "everyone" hits trip digits.

In “those eras,” it was a big deal to even be clocked. Hence all the fanfare that came with Feller’s and Ryan’s tests. I think you’re underestimating the amount of pitchers from the past who would read mid-90s and higher on the Statcast system. Ryan’s 1969 Mets are a great example. Ryan, Seaver, Gentry and Koosman all easily threw in the 90s. At home plate.
 
Last edited:

HumbleP1e

HR All-American
Jan 11, 2003
4,053
1,468
113
In “those eras,” it was a big deal to even be clocked. Hence all the fanfare that came with Feller’s and Ryan’s tests. I think you’re underestimating the amount of pitchers from the past who would read mid-90s and higher on the Statcast system. Ryan’s 1969 Mets are a great example. Ryan, Seaver, Gentry and Koosman all easily threw in the 90s. At home plate.
"Threw in the 90s" is different than this:


If MLB didn't have statistics that prove my point...rather MLB gave me my opinion. Believe what you wish. Those dudes threw hard. Ryan and Feller were foreballers. But, if pressed I could pull out my 80s Stratomatic, look up their average velo and prove how the vast majority were throwing in the upper 80s... Regardless, they weren't pumping 98 mph sinkers en masse. There are a number of trip digits guys with upper 90 offspeed.
 

HumbleP1e

HR All-American
Jan 11, 2003
4,053
1,468
113
"Threw in the 90s" is different than this:



If MLB didn't have statistics that prove my point...rather MLB gave me my opinion. Believe what you wish. Those dudes threw hard. Ryan and Feller were foreballers. But, if pressed I could pull out my 80s Stratomatic, look up their average velo and prove how the vast majority were throwing in the upper 80s... Regardless, they weren't pumping 98 mph sinkers en masse. There are a number of trip digits guys with upper 90 offspeed.
Opposite May in the same game is Dinelson Lamet:
In case you somehow thought May was unique.
 

Kinnick.At.Night

HR Heisman
Jun 27, 2018
9,244
18,287
113
"Threw in the 90s" is different than this:



If MLB didn't have statistics that prove my point...rather MLB gave me my opinion. Believe what you wish. Those dudes threw hard. Ryan and Feller were foreballers. But, if pressed I could pull out my 80s Stratomatic, look up their average velo and prove how the vast majority were throwing in the upper 80s... Regardless, they weren't pumping 98 mph sinkers en masse. There are a number of trip digits guys with upper 90 offspeed.

You’re comparing two completely differently systems of measuring velocity and making a conclusion from it. What if I told you that PITCHf/x would have clocked that same pitch at 99 or 100. Which reading is correct?