96.3 mph. Wow. Brody Brecht is a Potential Top 5 Round MLB Draft Pick

Kinnick.At.Night

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Jesus, I swear some of you are desperate to reassure yourselves that Brecht isn't an elite baseball talent. Sorry, he is. And it's possible (gasp) that he won't football at Iowa. Get over it.
 

Kinnick.At.Night

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He consistently hits mid 90s....along with a lot of other prospects. That's everyone else's point.

See post #133. That's all I've been saying. This whole fecking time. Relax, take a deep breath. There's a good chance he'll play football at Iowa.
 

elipse

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I haven’t read the hundreds of posts. But to me it seems like Brecht has a better chance at getting paid in baseball than he does in fball. (I’m sure this point has been made)
 
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Hawkfan_08

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110 is the max for HS pitchers in Iowa. If you hit 110 on a batter you are allowed to finish that batter, then must sit out a week.

Now, HS coaches don't seem to see the benefit of utilizing multiple pitchers throughout the year as they only want to win. So most teams will throw their studs to max every outing, injury and such be damned.

Every arm has an expiration date. One of our players was thrown to max every time out, the other pitchers didn't get much rotation so when it came crunch time and the stud(s) were out, the pitching struggled.

One of the studs was supposed to play college ball this year, well that plan is on hold for now as he had tommy john surgery... I wonder why.

Maybe high school baseball needs to have less games?
 

hawkifann

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Joe is an MLB Scout.

Brody's pitches last night were between 94 & 98 mph.


Check this out & watch:

Does this mean he’s really only showing a 4 mph difference between heat and curve? They have to be talking about fastball between 94-98.
 

AuroraHawk

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FWIW . . . if I had a son who was truly a MLB prospect, there is no way in hell that I'd encourage him to play college baseball. Sign the contract (which, BTW, the standard contract obligates the MLB club to pay for 4 years of college should baseball not pan out) and let the major league club develop the arm. I'd have far more trust in a major league/minor league program developing a young arm than a college program. Too many stories of "win now" college coaches destroying young arms. While a promising young arm may not make it through the minors to the majors, it won't be because a minor league coach pitched the prospect's arm into the ground.

Going simply by "slot money," IMO, the choice gets interesting when the "MLB prospect" is drafted in the 5th round where slot ranges from $318K to $422K.

I don't know what Brecht's financial situation may be but Baumler could demand big bucks from the Orioles because his family is absolutely loaded. From what I understand, he's in line to take over the family business and, as a result, there was zero interest on his part in taking "slot" money. Because Baumler was sitting on a scholarship offer to an excellent baseball school (TCU) and in line to take over a family business, the Orioles had to go well above slot to get him signed. Baumler felt that he should have been selected mid-2nd round and held out for that kind of $$$$.
 
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Auger

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Good lord. The kid's going to blow his arm out long before he ever gets a chance at the next level.

Every kid I played against in hs that hit 90mph plus ended up having arm troubles in hs/college. Of course this was also in an era where us SP's were over used and we racked up more pitches in a week than most MLB pitchers had in 2 weeks. My elbow still to this day gets a little sore on cold mornings.

Most scouts will tell you they would rather you have great mechanics and can throw 3-4 pitches for strikes in HS than throw 90mph plus. Too many injuries down the road. How effective you are at getting batters out and managing pitch counts is an impressive gift for a HS starter.
 
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Mar 14, 2003
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FWIW . . . if I had a son who was truly a MLB prospect, there is no way in hell that I'd encourage him to play college baseball. Sign the contract (which, BTW, the standard contract obligates the MLB club to pay for 4 years of college should baseball not pan out) and let the major league club develop the arm. I'd have far more trust in a major league/minor league program developing a young arm than a college program. Too many stories of "win now" college coaches destroying young arms. While a promising young arm may not make it through the minors to the majors, it won't be because a minor league coach pitched the prospect's arm into the ground.

Going simply by "slot money," IMO, the choice gets interesting when the "MLB prospect" is drafted in the 5th round where slot ranges from $318K to $422K.

I don't know what Brecht's financial situation may be but Baumler could demand big bucks from the Orioles because his family is absolutely loaded. From what I understand, he's in line to take over the family business and, as a result, there was zero interest on his part in taking "slot" money. Because Baumler was sitting on a scholarship offer to an excellent baseball school (TCU) and in line to take over a family business, the Orioles had to go well above slot to get him signed. Baumler felt that he should have been selected mid-2nd round and held out for that kind of $$$$.

I guess it depends on your definition of “truly a MLB prospect“. I remember Chris Comito who was a 14th round pick. He should have went to Iowa, he would’ve done good things at Iowa IMO. Instead he goes pro, and washes out within three years. The minor league system is a grind, and the patience isn’t always there for development unless you’re one of the true top prospects like a Bubba Starling was for the Royals which is why they have shown an incredible level of patience.
 

HawkOn15

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I guess it depends on your definition of “truly a MLB prospect“. I remember Chris Comito who was a 14th round pick. He should have went to Iowa, he would’ve done good things at Iowa IMO. Instead he goes pro, and washes out within three years. The minor league system is a grind, and the patience isn’t always there for development unless you’re one of the true top prospects like a Bubba Starling was for the Royals which is why they have shown an incredible level of patience.
If I remember right Comito never had much interest in going to college. If he did to Iowa who’s to say he’s good enough to be drafted. by signing out of HS he at least got his 120k signing bonus and has his college paid for if he wants to do school.
 

AuroraHawk

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Sometimes going to college improves draft stock (I.e. Cal Eldred). Sometimes it causes draft stock to plummet (I.e. Allen Rath).

If memory serves correctly, Duane Banks rode Allen Rath’s right arm right into the ground. Cal Eldred should be paying a portion of his monthly MLB pension to Rath as a “thank you” for being Iowa’s #1 pitcher as opposed to Eldred.
 

ChiPackHawk

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Sometimes going to college improves draft stock (I.e. Cal Eldred). Sometimes it causes draft stock to plummet (I.e. Allen Rath).

If memory serves correctly, Duane Banks rode Allen Rath’s right arm right into the ground. Cal Eldred should be paying a portion of his monthly MLB pension to Rath as a “thank you” for being Iowa’s #1 pitcher as opposed to Eldred.
I believe you are correct though there was a pretty good chance his arm had a lot of mileage on it by the time he hit college. If I remember correctly he came from a small school and he likely was their Ace from the moment he started High School.

A scout told me once that they look for pitchers/arms from the north and hitters from the west and south. Obvious reasons. Though with travel baseball extending into the late fall now the higher level arms get overused from all regions.
 

Hawkfan_08

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Or coaches that develop pitchers...

I believe we would have fewer games in Iowa if we played the Spring schedule like 49 other states do.

They do. They have pitchers and catchers report in, what, April?

In all honesty, supporting spring baseball/ softball would be tough, especially for small schools. That would be soccer, track, golf and tennis all competing for numbers.

For the record, I agree with you all for protecting arms but that happens at all levels of baseball from high school down.
 

MepoDawg#

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They do. They have pitchers and catchers report in, what, April?

In all honesty, supporting spring baseball/ softball would be tough, especially for small schools. That would be soccer, track, golf and tennis all competing for numbers.

For the record, I agree with you all for protecting arms but that happens at all levels of baseball from high school down.
And for some schools, trap shooting, it’s club affiliated, but some events are right after school.
 
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AuroraHawk

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He stated he is getting 3rd or 4th round comps from MLB teams, that is easily top 200. Not sure what service you are looking at or when it was listed.

Rob Howe tweeted today that Brecht has moved up from #401 to #219 in their list of rankings.

 

dbrocket

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FWIW . . . if I had a son who was truly a MLB prospect, there is no way in hell that I'd encourage him to play college baseball. Sign the contract (which, BTW, the standard contract obligates the MLB club to pay for 4 years of college should baseball not pan out) and let the major league club develop the arm. I'd have far more trust in a major league/minor league program developing a young arm than a college program. Too many stories of "win now" college coaches destroying young arms. While a promising young arm may not make it through the minors to the majors, it won't be because a minor league coach pitched the prospect's arm into the ground.

Going simply by "slot money," IMO, the choice gets interesting when the "MLB prospect" is drafted in the 5th round where slot ranges from $318K to $422K.

I don't know what Brecht's financial situation may be but Baumler could demand big bucks from the Orioles because his family is absolutely loaded. From what I understand, he's in line to take over the family business and, as a result, there was zero interest on his part in taking "slot" money. Because Baumler was sitting on a scholarship offer to an excellent baseball school (TCU) and in line to take over a family business, the Orioles had to go well above slot to get him signed. Baumler felt that he should have been selected mid-2nd round and held out for that kind of $$$$.
I'd be even less likely to encourage them to play football. Play college football, with the potential to ruin your arm (How many of our WRs and DBs have had separated shoulders? That can be career ending for a pitcher.), for a chance at getting drafted, where you can make millions, tens of millions if you are a star at the risk of serious brain damage? Or get drafted into a sport where you can make millions or even tens of millions if you make it as even a middle reliever with the shot of hundreds of millions if you are a star and have almost no risk of brain damage?

For me, if I were a parent, I know which path I would prefer. And relief arm is almost the floor for him. I'd love to have him, but if I were his father and someone offered him $300,000 I would jump at that.
 

dbrocket

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I'd be even less likely to encourage them to play football. Play college football, with the potential to ruin your arm (How many of our WRs and DBs have had separated shoulders? That can be career ending for a pitcher.), for a chance at getting drafted, where you can make millions, tens of millions if you are a star at the risk of serious brain damage? Or get drafted into a sport where you can make millions or even tens of millions if you make it as even a middle reliever with the shot of hundreds of millions if you are a star and have almost no risk of brain damage?

For me, if I were a parent, I know which path I would prefer. And relief arm is almost the floor for him. I'd love to have him, but if I were his father and someone offered him $300,000 I would jump at that.
Of course, that is imagining myself as a parent. While I do think that would be the logical move for him, all other things remaining equal, his personal preference matters. Is he as passionate about baseball as he is football? Idk. At his age, if I had that talent, nothing would have kept me out of Kinnick stadium.
 

Hawkfan_08

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Of course, that is imagining myself as a parent. While I do think that would be the logical move for him, all other things remaining equal, his personal preference matters. Is he as passionate about baseball as he is football? Idk. At his age, if I had that talent, nothing would have kept me out of Kinnick stadium.

Totally get your POV. He's gotta follow his passion. More to life than money.

I am with you. Heck, I gave up what would have probably been a mediocre d3 soccer experience to just be at Kinnick to watch.
 

dbrocket

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Totally get your POV. He's gotta follow his passion. More to life than money.

I am with you. Heck, I gave up what would have probably been a mediocre d3 soccer experience to just be at Kinnick to watch.
Exactly, man. Most of life isn't money. I won't blame the kid one bit if he chooses baseball. And if my team drafts him, he'll be my new favorite prospect (and I'll be pulling for him regardless). But if his heart is in football, we'll obviously be glad to have him as a Hawkeye.
 

DodgerHawki

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Does this mean he’s really only showing a 4 mph difference between heat and curve? They have to be talking about fastball between 94-98.
It was not the curve. The 94-98 was the range of the fastball. His curve usually is lower 80's, slider mid-80s. He is a very, very intriguing pitching prospect, to say the least. Great build/frame, mechanics are good. No guarantees on pitchers, as with all pitchers it's just a matter of time until they get hurt.

Latest from MLB pipeline had him in the 70s in terms of draft prospects. That is hard to turn down. Really phenomenal athlete.
 

DodgerHawki

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Oh, wow. That's really high. I wonder if something is going on from a scouting perspective, like his curveball improving.
That consistent 95+ fastball with his frame is hard to ignore. He hasn't really focused on baseball outside of the baseball season, so scouts also likely see a lot of upside there if he were to focus on baseball full time.
 

DodgerHawki

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Exactly, man. Most of life isn't money. I won't blame the kid one bit if he chooses baseball. And if my team drafts him, he'll be my new favorite prospect (and I'll be pulling for him regardless). But if his heart is in football, we'll obviously be glad to have him as a Hawkeye.

Yes, I'm with you here. It's not as if going to college for 3 years means he throws away his shot at baseball. He wouldn't be. Plenty of college guys get drafted very high. 24 of the 37 first-round picks in 2020 were college players. But it's easy for me to say from my perch in middle-age.

It would be nice for Heller and the baseball team to catch a break like this for once. Heller has done a real good job of developing pitchers with far less natural ability than Brecht.
 
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Brecht makes his debut in the MLB Pipeline listing at #77 overall.


Oh, wow. That's really high. I wonder if something is going on from a scouting perspective, like his curveball improving.


Yup, updated on the 15th. Actually has an interesting synopsis. Brecht never participated in any showcases and chose to run track. Told scouts he’ll only play in the official season to win a state title. Showed first round stuff. Compared him to Jeff Samardzija since he relies on athleticism to overcome lack of polish. Doesn’t thrown a change up, is raw, and command is unrefined. Only scratching the surface of his potential, exciting what he might become if he devoted to only baseball.

Scouts still think it will be almost impossible to divert him from playing football for Iowa.

it’ll be interesting to see where he is drafted and what happens. The draft is now late as ever.
 

hawkifann

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It was not the curve. The 94-98 was the range of the fastball. His curve usually is lower 80's, slider mid-80s. He is a very, very intriguing pitching prospect, to say the least. Great build/frame, mechanics are good. No guarantees on pitchers, as with all pitchers it's just a matter of time until they get hurt.

Latest from MLB pipeline had him in the 70s in terms of draft prospects. That is hard to turn down. Really phenomenal athlete.
Ok, good. That looked really odd to me and didn’t make sense. Low 80s on the curve would be right around what I’d expect for a 94-98 mph fastball.
 
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Yes, I'm with you here. It's not as if going to college for 3 years means he throws away his shot at baseball. He wouldn't be. Plenty of college guys get drafted very high. 24 of the 37 first-round picks in 2020 were college players. But it's easy for me to say from my perch in middle-age.

It would be nice for Heller and the baseball team to catch a break like this for once. Heller has done a real good job of developing pitchers with far less natural ability than Brecht.

I admit, I salivate at the idea of a potential starting rotation of Brecht and Morgan.
 

Hkfan23

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It hurts to say but I would head the baseball way. I do think his and his family quotes summarily dispel any rumors that he would have gone to ISU if they had baseball. Like his Mom said he was always gonna be a Hawk and Brody said “his heart” was always in Iowa City since he was a kid. Tough decision and hope he plays football for his dream school but with his current baseball ranking tough to pass up that route.
 
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AuroraHawk

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He's going to use football as a bargaining tool to get over slot money.

The interesting analysis will involve (a) the team which selects him and (b) who are the players selected before him/after him by that team. If the team that selects him picks a couple of college seniors ahead of him, that team would have a fair amount of leverage to pay something "under slot" because the college senior really doesn't have much option other than to refuse to sign, play in an independent league and go back into the draft. If that team can sign a couple of players to "under slot" contracts, it may have the flexibility to pay someone like Brecht "over slot" money. If the team that picks him takes some chances in the early rounds, it may be interesting to watch which of those "chance" draft picks ends up getting paid "over slot" to the detriment of the other "chance" picks.

Baumler benefited from the fact that the Orioles picked a player with their first pick (#2 overall) that was considered to be somewhere in the teens overall. They knew that they could sign their first pick to "under slot" money which freed up money to offer "above slot" to Baumler.

If Brecht falls to the 5th round but wants late 2nd round/early 3rd round money, the best chance for that happening is if the team that drafted him can save some money on early picks.
 

squeezebox

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The interesting analysis will involve (a) the team which selects him and (b) who are the players selected before him/after him by that team. If the team that selects him picks a couple of college seniors ahead of him, that team would have a fair amount of leverage to pay something "under slot" because the college senior really doesn't have much option other than to refuse to sign, play in an independent league and go back into the draft. If that team can sign a couple of players to "under slot" contracts, it may have the flexibility to pay someone like Brecht "over slot" money. If the team that picks him takes some chances in the early rounds, it may be interesting to watch which of those "chance" draft picks ends up getting paid "over slot" to the detriment of the other "chance" picks.

Baumler benefited from the fact that the Orioles picked a player with their first pick (#2 overall) that was considered to be somewhere in the teens overall. They knew that they could sign their first pick to "under slot" money which freed up money to offer "above slot" to Baumler.

If Brecht falls to the 5th round but wants late 2nd round/early 3rd round money, the best chance for that happening is if the team that drafted him can save some money on early picks.
Happens every year, the likelyhood of players making the MLB after the first round drops significantly, but signing a guy early like the Red Sox did last year in Blaze Jordan was a win. It's pretty easy to cover that money when bottom of 2nd round is 1 million, and 10th round last slot is worth ~150k.
 

hawkifann

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It would be interesting to see how Brecht & family are handling this behind the scenes. Any kid in his spot would have a few potential wishes:
  • He could really want to be a baseball player. The Iowa football offer gives him tremendous leverage because he could potentially play both sports at Iowa and see what opportunities are there in 3 years. In this scenario, Iowa would give him leverage to get a higher money offer in order to sign and if someone hits the mark, he does it.
  • He could really want to be a football player. In this scenario, someone would really have to wow the family with an offer, but he might not even entertain that - he could be dead set on playing football for the Hawks and playing some baseball on the side.
  • He could just want the best opportunity. In this case, Iowa football is leverage and maybe there’s a magic number that could get him to go pro, but it may just be more likely that he goes to Iowa, plays both sports and re-evaluates in a couple years.
That could play into draft slot. If scouts/teams get the sense that he’d seriously consider going pro, then his draft slot may go up, which would put him in a higher slot range, even before any potential over-slotting. If they’re letting people know that he’s far more likely to go to Iowa to play football, then he could fall in the draft to a point where some team might take a shot at drafting him and offering overslot money.
 

dbrocket

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It would be interesting to see how Brecht & family are handling this behind the scenes. Any kid in his spot would have a few potential wishes:
  • He could really want to be a baseball player. The Iowa football offer gives him tremendous leverage because he could potentially play both sports at Iowa and see what opportunities are there in 3 years. In this scenario, Iowa would give him leverage to get a higher money offer in order to sign and if someone hits the mark, he does it.
  • He could really want to be a football player. In this scenario, someone would really have to wow the family with an offer, but he might not even entertain that - he could be dead set on playing football for the Hawks and playing some baseball on the side.
  • He could just want the best opportunity. In this case, Iowa football is leverage and maybe there’s a magic number that could get him to go pro, but it may just be more likely that he goes to Iowa, plays both sports and re-evaluates in a couple years.
That could play into draft slot. If scouts/teams get the sense that he’d seriously consider going pro, then his draft slot may go up, which would put him in a higher slot range, even before any potential over-slotting. If they’re letting people know that he’s far more likely to go to Iowa to play football, then he could fall in the draft to a point where some team might take a shot at drafting him and offering overslot money.
Yeah, you guys are basically on the money. Teams put out feelers to gauge what it takes to sign guys. And then they don't pick them in the first 5-6 rounds unless they know they can offer it.

I am not sure which round is the cutoff anymore with the new 20 round format, but if he is drafted in the 1st 5-6 rounds (for example), that likely means the team believes they can sign him. You don't waist picks that high. If he is picked in like round 13-20, the team is taking a flyer and gambling that a *chance* of signing someone of his talent is worth more than the guarantee of someone they know they can afford at that slot.

And if he does get drafted late, it doesn't mean he wasn't good enough for those top 5-7 rounds. He is. It would mean that teams didn't think he would sign.
 
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IAFB2021Champs

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They do. They have pitchers and catchers report in, what, April?

In all honesty, supporting spring baseball/ softball would be tough, especially for small schools. That would be soccer, track, golf and tennis all competing for numbers.

For the record, I agree with you all for protecting arms but that happens at all levels of baseball from high school down.
You said small schools and soccer. You must not mean small schools. Lol