A CFP analysis

[anon_i8nzeu2gbf0ba]

Here are some facts:

* 68 of 347 D1 teams make the NCAA basketball tournament. That's 20%.

* 64 of 300 D1 baseball teams make the NCAA tournament. That's 21%.

* 24 of 125 FCS football teams make the playoffs. That's 19%.

* 4 of 130 D1 football teams make the CFP. That's 3%.

Which one is not like the others?

Every other NCAA national playoff is INclusive--except D1 football, which is ludicrously EXclusive. It's pretty clear that if FCS teams can stage a 24-team football playoff, there is no good reason the same thing cannot be done at the D1 level. And bowl games are not an excuse.

Until the CFP includes at least 12 teams (only 9%), which would still be a far lower percentage than any other NCAA sport, then the CFP will continue to be a bad joke to any fair-minded college football fan.

Using the current AP Top 25 as an example (we know it will change over the last half of the season), here's how a 24-team (18%) CFP would match up (and would be equivalent to the FCS football playoff):

#1 Alabama vs. #24 Stanford
#2 Clemson vs. #23 Utah
#3 Notre Dame vs. #22 North Carolina State
#4 LSU vs. #21 South Florida
#5 Michigan vs. #20 Wisconsin
#6 Texas vs. #19 Oregon
#7 Georgia vs. #18 Iowa
#8 Oklahoma vs. #17 Penn State
#9 Flordia vs. #16 Texas A&M
#10 Central Florida vs. #15 Washington
#11 Ohio State vs. #14 West Virginia
#12 Kentucky vs. #13 Washington State

Something like THAT would be a lot of fun. It would actually be a NATIONAL playoff, and it would no longer protect the SEC. It could be tweaked in a number of ways--such as the higher ranked team hosting the first two rounds, then use bowl games after that--but the bottom line is that if the FCS can do it, so can D1.

 

[icwesthawk]

Maybe the other sports include too many teams, huh?

 

[MepoDawg#]

Here are some facts:

* 68 of 347 D1 teams make the NCAA basketball tournament. That's 20%.

* 64 of 300 D1 baseball teams make the NCAA tournament. That's 21%.

* 24 of 125 FCS football teams make the playoffs. That's 19%.

* 4 of 130 D1 football teams make the CFP. That's 3%.

Which one is not like the others?

Every other NCAA national playoff is INclusive--except D1 football, which is ludicrously EXclusive. It's pretty clear that if FCS teams can stage a 24-team football playoff, there is no good reason the same thing cannot be done at the D1 level. And bowl games are not an excuse.

Until the CFP includes at least 12 teams (only 9%), which would still be a far lower percentage than any other NCAA sport, then the CFP will continue to be a bad joke to any fair-minded college football fan.

Using the current AP Top 25 as an example (we know it will change over the last half of the season), here's how a 24-team (18%) CFP would match up (and would be equivalent to the FCS football playoff):

#1 Alabama vs. #24 Stanford
#2 Clemson vs. #23 Utah
#3 Notre Dame vs. #22 North Carolina State
#4 LSU vs. #21 South Florida
#5 Michigan vs. #20 Wisconsin
#6 Texas vs. #19 Oregon
#7 Georgia vs. #18 Iowa
#8 Oklahoma vs. #17 Penn State
#9 Flordia vs. #16 Texas A&M
#10 Central Florida vs. #15 Washington
#11 Ohio State vs. #14 West Virginia
#12 Kentucky vs. #13 Washington State

Something like THAT would be a lot of fun. It would actually be a NATIONAL playoff, and it would no longer protect the SEC. It could be tweaked in a number of ways--such as the higher ranked team hosting the first two rounds, then use bowl games after that--but the bottom line is that if the FCS can do it, so can D1.

Where are the byes? Can’t have all play in the first round.

 

[Galenahawk]

Is there a "play-in" component or a bye somewhere in here? Someone would have to play more games than others to end up with 2 teams. I think the system proposed would be difficult to implement with conference schedules and just the physical toll on players from an expanded schedule. Scheduling and travel would be difficult as well, with teams not finding out their destinations until last minute. I'm generally happy with the 4-team playoff. I could maybe see an 8 team playoff, which would overcome the perceived biases that favor certain teams/conferences; however, it is difficult to envision a scenario where any team ranked higher than 8 would be considered a serious contender for best team.

 

[hawkster03]

24-team (18%) CFP

One word:

NO!!!!!!

 

[OILCHECKER]

You can't have a 24 team bracket without byes. It's got to be 4-8-16-32-64-etc.teams.

 

[myteamcanbeatupyourteam]

I'd be happy with an eight team playoff. It would be awfully difficult to do more than that.

 

[mrF6n6]

I won't be happy until they give automatic bids to conference champions.

they could split Power 5 and Group of 5 and let each league have their own playoff.

but if they don't... then they should include all 10 Conference champions...
and I'd be ok with a 10 team playoff....

but we know that won't happen because Notre Dame is afraid to join a conference... they prefer playing meaningless games and puffin up their record... it makes a lot of money for them.

regardless if its 10-12-16-24 or however many teams.... the top 5 spots should be reserved for the five Power 5 Conference Champions.

look at the NFL... a team might be 8-8... but they will receive a higher seed over a team that is 12-4.... if the 8-8 team won their respective division.
it just makes sense to reward the winners this way.

what doesn't make sense is hand picking 4 blue blood schools to play in the playoffs for a National Championship.

no other model in sports history has ever done this.
and thats because it stinks.
stinks real bad.

 

[nu2u]

I believeD1 football is headed toward a 8 team playoff format. My preference is a P5 conference champions automatic bid + 3 At-Large invites. I would give the top 5 seeds to the conference champs so as not to reward Notre Dame for their snobbish cowardice (should they qualify).

 

[Pepperman]

but we know that won't happen because Notre Dame is afraid to join a conference... they prefer playing meaningless games and puffin up their record... it makes a lot of money for them.

I'm not a Notre Dame fan, but what the hell are you even talking about here? This is a joke of a post.

Michigan
Ball State
Vanderbilt
@ Wake Forest
Stanford
@ Virginia Tech
Pittsburgh
Navy
@ Northwestern
Florida State
Syracuse
@Southern Cal

That's a very difficult schedule.

 

[Lumas Etima]

Need at least 6 teams in the playoff (probably 8), because every P5 champ deserves a spot.

The day is coming when a B1G Champ from the West Division gets screwed out of a playoff spot because of perceived weakness of the division. It could be Iowa. We need to fix the system before the flaw is exposed.

 

[Pepperman]

I like the idea of 12 teams in the playoff. Top 4 get a bye so the "regular season" still has a lot of drama each week and every game still matters.

First round games are on campus, so 5 hosts 12 etc.

Second round games are also on campus, so 1 hosts winner of 8/9 etc

Final four are the bowls as is.

 

[mrF6n6]

I'm not a Notre Dame fan, but what the hell are you even talking about here? This is a joke of a post.

Michigan
Ball State
Vanderbilt
@ Wake Forest
Stanford
@ Virginia Tech
Pittsburgh
Navy
@ Northwestern
Florida State
Syracuse
@Southern Cal

That's a very difficult schedule.

I'd sooner put you on ignore than argue with you....
but because you asked, I'll answer.

Notre Dame does not play one single meaningful game...

meaning... they do not play for a Division title...
they play against teams who do play for a Division title...
for opposing teams.. the Notre Dame game is essentially a pre-season game.
the more important games are those against conference foes.

there shouldn't be any doubt about this...
look at the NFL... how many teams aren't in a Division?
this sort of model is all screwy ... in my opinion..
if you don't agree.... I don't care.

and I don't care for the strong words you are using...
try to be respectful, por favor

 

[Lone Clone]

I won't be happy until they give automatic bids to conference champions.

they could split Power 5 and Group of 5 and let each league have their own playoff.

but if they don't... then they should include all 10 Conference champions...
and I'd be ok with a 10 team playoff....

but we know that won't happen because Notre Dame is afraid to join a conference... they prefer playing meaningless games and puffin up their record... it makes a lot of money for them.

regardless if its 10-12-16-24 or however many teams.... the top 5 spots should be reserved for the five Power 5 Conference Champions.

look at the NFL... a team might be 8-8... but they will receive a higher seed over a team that is 12-4.... if the 8-8 team won their respective division.
it just makes sense to reward the winners this way.

what doesn't make sense is hand picking 4 blue blood schools to play in the playoffs for a National Championship.

no other model in sports history has ever done this.
and thats because it stinks.
stinks real bad.

It's going to be especially smelly this season because of the lack of really outstanding teams. So you have Alabama....then what? I suppose you eliminate any team with two losses, but that would likely cause some howls. There could be half a dozen P5 teams with one loss.

 

[Birdmanil]

I think you're missing the differenece about those sports and football and it is about the bowls. It's what many Hawkeye fans look forward to in the winter. Getting a chance to get away and watch their favorite team. Even when we are not a top 25 team most season we look forward to going to a bowl game. And if you think the bowl games and playoff can coincide, just look at basketball and the NIT. NIT once was on the same playing field as the NCAA tourney. It's already happening to a small degree in football, where its CFP or bust, no longer a Rosebowl trip brings the same luster. I dont mind having playoffs at 6 teams, 6 conf champion and one at large. Top 2 seeds get bye weeks. All games can be played with old BCS Bowls. Orange, Rose, Sugar, Fiesta, and add a floater for the title game. It would allow Northern fans to travel south and it would keep games from being played at a schools stadium. Remember the more games the more travel expense which would most likely mean games being played at schools than neutral bowl sites

 

[Pepperman]

I'd sooner put you on ignore than argue with you....
but because you asked, I'll answer.

Ok thanks - now, please put me on ignore because you're a total idiot.

 

[rchawk]

I agree with galena and others on an eight-team playoff. There will still be some arguing about teams left out, but you would have that with a 32-game playoff. It's fair to say that among the top eight ranked teams (however they are ranked) the genuine best one and probably best two are going to get their shot.

He's also right about the physical toll of football compared to basketball or baseball. Very different sports. Look at the number of games teams in an eight-team playoff would play. 13 if you lose in the first round, 14 if you were in a conference championship game. 14 if you advance to the second round, 15 if you were in a league title game. 15 in the championship game, 16 if you were in a conference championship game.

Those are NFL numbers for games played. It's only eight teams but if you make it 16 teams it's not just more teams, it's more games for the teams that advance. That's a helluva lot to expect from 18-22 year old men who aren't making a million bucks a year.

College football is my favorite sport. I believe the athletes should be protected on the field, and they should be encouraged to get a degree. College football should not try to be the NFL. I've been to many NFL games, I prefer college football.

 

[MarkRules]

Where are the byes? Can’t have all play in the first round.

You ruined it! I wanted to see the championship game with three teams in it.

 

[anon_i8nzeu2gbf0ba]

You can't have a 24 team bracket without byes. It's got to be 4-8-16-32-64-etc.teams.

To you and others, please note: (1) FCS already has a 24-team playoff, so I guess it's possible. (2) I said I wasn't laying out all the details of how it would work, only that D1 football has FOUR teams in its "playoff," which is nowhere near the numbers or percentages in every other NCAA sport and every other level of college football. As a result, the CFP needs to expand dramatically. Hell, going to EIGHT would DOUBLE the current representation while still leaving D1 football woefully short of every other division. FWIW. And again, the point is that a four-team playoff when there are five major conferences is just plain BS. I hope some of you can figure out these words because you sure as hell have had trouble figuring out the original post.

 

[anon_i8nzeu2gbf0ba]

You ruined it! I wanted to see the championship game with three teams in it.

Brilliant, pal. I guess you better call the folks who've been running a 24-team FCS football playoff for years and tell them it cannot be done. They'll be a little surprised.

 

[Hawkman34]

I'd sooner put you on ignore than argue with you....
but because you asked, I'll answer.

Notre Dame does not play one single meaningful game...

meaning... they do not play for a Division title...
they play against teams who do play for a Division title...
for opposing teams.. the Notre Dame game is essentially a pre-season game.
the more important games are those against conference foes.

there shouldn't be any doubt about this...
look at the NFL... how many teams aren't in a Division?
this sort of model is all screwy ... in my opinion..
if you don't agree.... I don't care.

and I don't care for the strong words you are using...
try to be respectful, por favor

__________________________________________________

Hi guys,

I actually agree with Pepperman on this one. I am a Hawkeye fan through and through......forever. But, to dis ND because of their schedule is off base.

They play one of the tougher schedules in the nation pretty much every year. And remember this, it only takes one loss in most years to knock them out of the playoff race. But, if you are in the BIG, a team like OSU can get blown out by Purdue this year and still be given a better than 60% chance of still making the playoffs.

I want ND in the BIG at some point, along with Oklahoma, as I think it would allow the BIG to become the first real super conference. Imagine that! But, if I am ND, and NBC keeps throwing the money at me, I would be a fool to do anything different right now. They are not being snobbish...they are being smart.

 

[DodgerHawki]

I think you're missing the differenece about those sports and football and it is about the bowls. It's what many Hawkeye fans look forward to in the winter. Getting a chance to get away and watch their favorite team. Even when we are not a top 25 team most season we look forward to going to a bowl game. And if you think the bowl games and playoff can coincide, just look at basketball and the NIT. NIT once was on the same playing field as the NCAA tourney. It's already happening to a small degree in football, where its CFP or bust, no longer a Rosebowl trip brings the same luster. I dont mind having playoffs at 6 teams, 6 conf champion and one at large. Top 2 seeds get bye weeks. All games can be played with old BCS Bowls. Orange, Rose, Sugar, Fiesta, and add a floater for the title game. It would allow Northern fans to travel south and it would keep games from being played at a schools stadium. Remember the more games the more travel expense which would most likely mean games being played at schools than neutral bowl sites

You could still have bowls for teams that didn't make the playoffs, but I haven't heard a good reason yet why a 16 or 24-team playoff can't take place other than it hasn't been done. With 24-team playoff, top 8 seeds get a bye, seeds 9-24 play with the better seed playing at home. When you get to Final 8, could preserve the big bowls by having those bowls host those games up through the title.

There is a crapload of money to be made from a 24-team playoff with far more compelling games than the bowl games. Would be fun to have southern teams venture north to play higher-seeded opponents. It would also make strength of schedule really important, as teams could be rewarded for playing good non-conference foes.

 

[srams21]

It's going to be especially smelly this season because of the lack of really outstanding teams. So you have Alabama....then what? I suppose you eliminate any team with two losses, but that would likely cause some howls. There could be half a dozen P5 teams with one loss.

This could be an interesting year.

However, if Clemson and Bama win out, I think it's safe to say they are in for sure.

If ND wins out, I personally think they will be included. If not, then they are out. I think they trip up one time yet.

That leaves one or two spots depending on ND. I think if Michigan or OSU win out and win the BIG, they are also in the CFP.

The Big 12 is in a weird spot. Rough OOC showing but I think Oklahoma could sneak in there.