Watched the WV-MD game since that was the best team they've played.
Thoughts:
1. They hit 2 big plays on the left side where the outside WR comes in motion to the inside of the slot receiver. Moss has made a couple of assignment mistakes where 2 receivers come into his zone and he doubles up on the short route leaving the flag route open outside the FS. He's also been bit on a double move with his eyes in the backfield more than once. Moss needs to have a good game, and he will clearly be targeted for those deeper throws rather than Hankins. It's the most critical matchup for us on defense.
2. They run a lot of WR screens with the other WR cut blocking. We need to be able to stay on our feet and come up and wrap up. Ideally we can stand guys up and cause fumbles. Since I think we will be playing off the LOS and giving up shorter routes, I expect them to call quite a few of these. We are normally a very good tackling team - we will need to be tonight.
3. They ran quite a few RB screens against WVU. Since I don't believe we will be rushing the QB blindly like many teams do off the edge, I think Iowa is in better shape to stop these screens. They were outside screens so DE and LB need to recognize.
4. Tua is a shorter QB with great accuracy and mobility. I expect us to mostly bull rush and collapse the pocket keeping him inside and having to throw over our DL without a chance to run. Most teams DE's will fly up the field giving Tua more space and the ability to extend the play by moving outside the pocket (he runs more to throw than to run, like Aaron Rodgers). We need to keep him in the pocket and hope we can get tipped balls or that he forces it downfield. If MD is patient I expect they can get into our redzone quite often. Can we hold them to FG's is the question.
5. Their special teams gave WVU at least 2 big plays. If WVU doesn't have 4 turnovers they win that game. I hope Jones gets 3-4 chances to return a ball as he'll have at least 1 big return if he does. Their FG kicker and punter are meh.
6. MD offense does look pretty dangerous as their WR's clearly look more like NFL WR than ours do, and if open Tua will put it on the numbers. I think we'll need to force 2 turnovers to win this game, which we are very capable of. But anything less than that will be tough to win imo because we will struggle to stop their offense between the 20's. Turnovers or special teams plays - much like our earlier games - are critical. If MD doesn't fumble and Tua takes care of the ball, all MD will have to do is punch in 2 TD's in the redzone and we're in big trouble.
I expect a low number of possessions as Phil focuses on keeping MD in front of us and seeing if they can execute in the red zone. Between the 25's we will try to get tipped balls, penalties or key 3rd and 2 type stops in order to kill drives, but will give up a lot of 5-7 yard gains. Can Tua be patient and dink his way down the field? Can MD score in the red zone when we don't have to worry about the deep ball? We shall see.
At some point Iowa won't get the turnover they need, or will have 2 of their own.
I do think Iowa plays well on the road in these situations. Just take care of the ball and I think we can pull out a white knuckler. Not sure I'm a fan of being up 5 points late but Tua has 4 downs and 2 minutes to try to score. Which is quite likely, ugh.
Thoughts:
1. They hit 2 big plays on the left side where the outside WR comes in motion to the inside of the slot receiver. Moss has made a couple of assignment mistakes where 2 receivers come into his zone and he doubles up on the short route leaving the flag route open outside the FS. He's also been bit on a double move with his eyes in the backfield more than once. Moss needs to have a good game, and he will clearly be targeted for those deeper throws rather than Hankins. It's the most critical matchup for us on defense.
2. They run a lot of WR screens with the other WR cut blocking. We need to be able to stay on our feet and come up and wrap up. Ideally we can stand guys up and cause fumbles. Since I think we will be playing off the LOS and giving up shorter routes, I expect them to call quite a few of these. We are normally a very good tackling team - we will need to be tonight.
3. They ran quite a few RB screens against WVU. Since I don't believe we will be rushing the QB blindly like many teams do off the edge, I think Iowa is in better shape to stop these screens. They were outside screens so DE and LB need to recognize.
4. Tua is a shorter QB with great accuracy and mobility. I expect us to mostly bull rush and collapse the pocket keeping him inside and having to throw over our DL without a chance to run. Most teams DE's will fly up the field giving Tua more space and the ability to extend the play by moving outside the pocket (he runs more to throw than to run, like Aaron Rodgers). We need to keep him in the pocket and hope we can get tipped balls or that he forces it downfield. If MD is patient I expect they can get into our redzone quite often. Can we hold them to FG's is the question.
5. Their special teams gave WVU at least 2 big plays. If WVU doesn't have 4 turnovers they win that game. I hope Jones gets 3-4 chances to return a ball as he'll have at least 1 big return if he does. Their FG kicker and punter are meh.
6. MD offense does look pretty dangerous as their WR's clearly look more like NFL WR than ours do, and if open Tua will put it on the numbers. I think we'll need to force 2 turnovers to win this game, which we are very capable of. But anything less than that will be tough to win imo because we will struggle to stop their offense between the 20's. Turnovers or special teams plays - much like our earlier games - are critical. If MD doesn't fumble and Tua takes care of the ball, all MD will have to do is punch in 2 TD's in the redzone and we're in big trouble.
I expect a low number of possessions as Phil focuses on keeping MD in front of us and seeing if they can execute in the red zone. Between the 25's we will try to get tipped balls, penalties or key 3rd and 2 type stops in order to kill drives, but will give up a lot of 5-7 yard gains. Can Tua be patient and dink his way down the field? Can MD score in the red zone when we don't have to worry about the deep ball? We shall see.
At some point Iowa won't get the turnover they need, or will have 2 of their own.
I do think Iowa plays well on the road in these situations. Just take care of the ball and I think we can pull out a white knuckler. Not sure I'm a fan of being up 5 points late but Tua has 4 downs and 2 minutes to try to score. Which is quite likely, ugh.
