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A Long look at Iowa for 2018 .... cloudy forecast at best!

cidsports

HB King
Most coaches in the Big Ten talk about improving each day. For Iowa, every player needs to step up for Iowa in 2018, if they are going to get back to Indianapolis.

Iowa didn't go 3-9 last year, like MSU did in 2016, but Iowa has been stuck on 8-5 the past two seasons. MSU bounced back to 10-3 last year.

Iowa lost 16-13 in Indy in 2015, then fell 17-10 in East Lansing last season. Iowa is working to get to Indianapolis for a possible rematch with MSU or whoever the opponent for Wisconsin is projected to play in 2018?

Iowa returns a few solid players in 2018 and those stars need to step up at QB, TE, DE again. Iowa's young tandem at OT, who will have to wait for Week 2, are key factors in whether Iowa can pull off a MSU type comeback or just remains a nice 7-5 or 8-4 team?

Of course, some people West of Iowa believe the time is near for another program to step up ahead of the Hawkeyes. And, don't forget about our Gold and Black rivals too!

Iowa is clearly, a not ready for prime time team heading into 2018.

The star power is thin, especially with two key returnees in the NFL instead. The potential is there?


Top returning offensive star - TE Noah Fant. Nate Stanley did make HM, based on his 2017 season.

Top returning defensive player - DE Anthony Nelson

Otherwise, not many accolades returning, based on 2017.

Iowa returns a lean list of B1G honorees compared to Michigan State with 16 of their 19 returning starters listed, as returning all B1G honorees.

By the way, the Wisconsin honor role in the OL is sickening. Others sprinkled in elsewhere.

Iowa fans may need to hope the SI curse plays out in Week 4 for the Badgers. Of course, Kinnick and Iowa did create magic in back to back seasons, with Top 10 Michigan and Ohio State coming to town. The Penn State game ended a play too late.

Ahead of Week 4, Iowa will have enough to keep themselves busy, with NIU, ISU and UNI all gunning for the Hawkeyes again.

Star power is needed in Iowa City now.

Michigan State and Wisconsin seem to find a way to elevate, so how can Iowa make it their turn in 2018?

Or, does 2018 end, with another chant of wait 'til next year? With the 2019 Draft ahead, could Iowa heading to a nice, but bittersweet pattern?

Keys personnel in 2018:
  1. C Keegan Render - he replaces James Daniels full-time in the lineup in 2018. Also, Render replaces the senior leadership of all-B1G RG Sean Welsh. He has made 20 starts, mostly at G, but his best football may be ahead of him at C, per his coaches.
  2. DL Matt Nelson - if Iowa is going to make a run in the West Division, it begins in the trenches. Iowa needs to improve against the run in 2018 and they must replace the leadership of Nate Bazata. The Double Nelson factor is a huge KEY in 2018!
  3. LB Amani Jones - it may be easy to suggest he should be #1, but OL play and up front defensively are always key to success at Iowa. You don't keep the LBs free, how are they going to succeed? Further, what do they say about a good offense, it makes for a better defense? Jones will be the vocal leader on the defensive side. No question he is a player everyone is looking forward to seeing on the field more in 2018, after being a leader on special teams the past 2 seasons.
  4. The second DE position is always important, and Parker Hesse and A.J Epenesa are #2 and #3 behind #1 A. Nelson. In 2002, we had 3 highly talented DEs. This group needs to bring back memories, as Matt Roth was a heck of a non-starter, so likely will be Epenesa and all 3 will likely see some time together as Iowa moves DEs inside. Another DE appears headed inside to join Matt Nelson and that is Sam Brincks. How will Iowa run defense hold up or improve, especially Week 2 & 4?
  5. Safety play - in 2014, Iowa gave up far too many explosive plays. How important is it for a football team (baseball team for that matter) to be strong up the middle? Staying healthy is the key, since Iowa only has 3 experienced players here. This unit appears better than 2014 at this position. Amani Hooker missed time in 2017, so can he factor in over a 12 game regular season?
  6. Guard play, in the down years during division play, often Iowa has witnessed deficiencies in the interior line. Iowa has 3 clear starters in OL for 2018. A number of teams are still looking for their best 5. Iowa is certainly one of them, unlike UW.
  7. Running back play - all B1G RB Akrum Wadley and James Butler struggled in yards per carry, which is an outlier for Iowa Football under Kirk Ferentz. The OL wasn't consistent running the ball. It stepped up with an outstanding balance in 54-24 win over Ohio State (243/244). The three top sophomores hopefully find some magic, like the 2015 RB group, but it will start with a more consistent OL.
  8. Who steps up as Iowa's #1 CB? In 2017, the Purdue game highlighted the importance of CB play. Those explosive plays allowed are the linchpin in Phil Parker's success as a DC. Is it Matt Hankins or Michael Oljemudia? Also, Iowa often has a newcomer step up at CB, so Julius Brents appears to be early favorite. RS freshman Josh Turner deserves mention. Corner play at Iowa is among the best in the B1G lately. The new full-time starters will test that being true in '18
  9. Ben Niemann is playing well in NFL camp, as undrafted free agent. He was an HM all-B1G performer and his old position is often critical in Iowa's 4-3 base defense. Sophomores Nick Niemann and Barrington Wade will likely man it. They each need to step up.
  10. LB Krisian Welch may not start, but he may play a key role, in the pass defense based on the 3-1-7 set?
Comparing the B1G best with what Iowa has to work with in 2018?

QB - Junior Nate Stanley is a possible star at the QB position. He clearly projects at the next level at 6-4 242, if he can step up his game, in Year 2 in as a starter?

RB - 3 sophomores at the position: future is bright and serviceable, especially if OL can pull together.

WR - PS 10th rated unit in B1G and that is with Iowa's TEs, ugh!
Biggest difference between teams like Wisconsin or Michigan State is at WR. Northwestern had top B1G WR (Austin Carr) in 2016. Former walk-on there.
How good can senior Nick Easley be this year?
Hopefully, sophomores and a newcomer or two can step up, but star points are extremely low here and could continue to be an Achilles Heal for the offense.

TE - Iowa needs this unit to be outstanding.
Wisconsin has dominated Iowa head to head at this position.
Even last year.
Is this the season Iowa steps up?

OL - MSU returns 4 starters and like Iowa was very up and down last year. They are rated about the same heading into '18. Iowa has two sophomore tackles who need to play and grow on the field. They look good in a photo line up, and they played outstanding in a 55-24 upset win.

Iowa lost five games last year.
#5 toughest schedule one stat proclaimed.
This season, much more manageable schedule, but everyone on it is capable of the upset, based on watching 20 years of Fry and 19 years of Ferentz. Northwestern, Tulsa and 20 years ago, Iowa State were games that went the opponent's way

DE - This is a talented group, but they have areas to improve on. We may start 4 in the DL, game 1 basically.

DT - two suspended, how do each of them step up, when they return. The run defense stats are like many Iowa fans. Need to cut 20-30 (yards, instead of pounds).
Week 2 & 4 will be first major tests.

LB - a sum of the parts group, as Iowa typically is at LB. Plenty of potential and a mix of time in Iowa City should help.

We will see more packages in 2018 with the nickel, dime or even a possible 3-1-7 unit?

Use the roster and don't always stay in base 4-3 ... reduce explosive plays!

Will there be a star in 2018 in the LB unit?

Iowa will have to watch out for up and coming teams, like Purdue, who burned the defense in 2017 again.

CB - Young unit, with only one junior, Michael Oljemudia. Can OJ be Iowa's next star CB or does it fall to an underclassman in future?

S - Amani Hooker, senior Jake Gervase and Geno Stone are back. Iowa needs this unit to lead & shine!

ST - Is this unit up to the potential of being one of the top units in the Big Ten?

Watching the BTN talk B1G East teams and the Boilermakers talk .... does Iowa derail Wisconsin in 2018 and become part of the 2018 CFB conversation?

It wasn't pretty 20 years ago .... here's to a better 20 this go around!
 
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