Abortion is on the ballot in Iowa. Will it matter?

cigaretteman

HR King
May 29, 2001
72,322
52,014
113
Todd Dorman
Aug. 28, 2022 7:00 am

Kansas voters who soundly defeated an effort to remove abortion protections from the state constitution are a beacon of hope for Iowa Democrats and other defenders of reproductive rights.

The proposed Kansas amendment got thumped, 59 percent to 41 percent. It looked more like a University of Kansas football blowout loss than a red state election.

Turnout surged for the Aug. 2 vote, with more than 900,000 of the state’s voters, nearly half of registered voters, casting ballots. Between June 24, when the U.S. Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade and tossed a constitutional right to abortion, and a mid-July registration deadline, 33,000 Kansans registered to vote.

Advertisement

Of those new voters, 70 percent were women. The court’s decision appears to have changed the electoral landscape in a significant way. Other states have also seen women lead a surge of new voter registrations.

So what about Iowa’s landscape? Well, we’re not in Kansas.

According to the Iowa Secretary of State’s office, 9,483 Iowans registered to vote between June 24 and this past week. That number doesn’t count registered voters who re-registered after moving to a different county. Among them are 1,592 Democrats, 2,392 Republicans and 5,383 no-party voters.

Just more than 50 percent of those new voters are women, or 4,760. So there hasn’t been a Kansas-sized surge of women registering to vote. Male registrations, 4,723, make up just more than 49 percent.

But new registrants do skew young. Fifty-eight percent of women who registered are between the ages of 17 and 24. Iowa allows 17-year-olds who will be 18 by Election Day to register. Add in new registrations from women ages 25-34, the percentage young voters jumps to 72 percent of women who registered. Among male voters who registered, 60 percent are ages 17-24.

So we’re seeing more registrations among younger voters. And we know younger voters are more concerned about abortion rights and oppose curtailing them. Women do make up a slight majority of new registrations. But we’re not seeing a surge in Democratic registrations, although we know many young, potentially left-of-center voters register as independents.

Opinion Newsletter Signup​


Newsletter Signup
checkmark-yellow.png
Delivered to your inbox daily







Young Iowans have the most to lose if abortion is effectively banned. And we’re going to lose more young people if Iowa becomes a place where forced birth becomes state policy.


To be fair, Iowa is in a far different situation than Kansas. Voters there faced a clear up-or-down vote on abortion rights. The election occurred just more than a month after the Dobbs ruling, so outrage over the loss of reproductive rights was still burning hot.


In Iowa, the abortion debate is scattered among dozens of federal, statewide and legislative races this fall. Abortion rights are a huge issue, but not the only issue that will help decide these races. Instead of an up-or-down vote, voters may deliver a messy verdict.


Take the race for governor. Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds supports draconian restrictions on abortion rights. Democrat Deidre DeJear strongly favors abortion rights. It’s the closest thing to a clear vote for or against abortion rights on the ballot.


And yet, a Des Moines Register Mediacom Iowa Poll released in July showed that 24 percent of voters who support legal abortion and plan to vote in November said they would vote for Reynolds. Forty-nine percent said they would vote for the actual pro-choice candidate, DeJear.


Overall, 60 percent of Iowans polled support legal abortion in all or most cases, the highest number ever recorded by an Iowa Poll.


So it’s no surprise Republican candidates are not shouting anti-abortion diatribes from the rooftops. Although abortion was a big issue in several GOP primaries, GOP general election hopefuls are emphasizing economic issues while arguing all Democrats are Joe Biden.


Reynolds has asked a state court to lift an injunction blocking enforcement of a six week abortion ban, picking a slow boat through the courts instead of a special legislative session that would have shined a glaring spotlight on the issue. But the ultimate objective is to get an Iowa Supreme Court ruling that opens the door for harsh restrictions, which she will gladly sign into law. The surest way to protect reproductive rights is to defeat Reynolds.


U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson favors abortion restrictions but has tried to distract voters by saying she opposes charging women who get abortions with crimes and emphasizing her support for a weak measure on over-the-counter contraceptives. But she’s also a co-sponsor of a bill that says life begins at conception. Ignore the rights-trampling elephant in the room.


Iowans who care deeply about reproductive rights aren’t fooled by this stuff. They know the score. But will enough voters who support abortion rights but less passionately cast ballots to turn back the onslaught? At this point, we don’t know.


What we do know is if voters don’t deliver change, Reynolds, the GOP Legislature and a conservative state Supreme Court will yank away the rights of Iowans who want to make difficult, personal medical decisions without government interference. So abortion rights clearly are on the ballot In Iowa, and Democrats and their allies need to work overtime to make sure voters understand the stakes.

 
  • Like
  • Haha
Reactions: HawkMD and abby97

sober_teacher

HR Legend
Mar 26, 2007
13,991
17,460
113
It baffles me how Iowans got so stupid. Kansas is smarter than us now?
Anyone read anything on how state races are expected to go? No idea if either chamber is a possibility, havent heard a peep on gubernatorial race, not that I expect anything.

at best I think Dems can win back the two house races they lost in ‘20.
 

cigaretteman

HR King
May 29, 2001
72,322
52,014
113
Anyone read anything on how state races are expected to go? No idea if either chamber is a possibility, havent heard a peep on gubernatorial race, not that I expect anything.

at best I think Dems can win back the two house races they lost in ‘20.
Neither chamber is a possibility and Reynolds will be re-elected handily, as will Grassley. Both Mathis and Bohannan have a shot, but both races will be extremely close.
 
  • Like
Reactions: HawkMD

Rifler

HR Legend
Jan 26, 2011
24,952
19,882
113
Anyone read anything on how state races are expected to go? No idea if either chamber is a possibility, havent heard a peep on gubernatorial race, not that I expect anything.

at best I think Dems can win back the two house races they lost in ‘20.

Dems will get thumped but the right to abortion with certain restrictions will be affirmed,.. because that's where a majority of Iowans are.
 
  • Like
Reactions: thewop and ICHerky

sober_teacher

HR Legend
Mar 26, 2007
13,991
17,460
113
Dems will get thumped but the right to abortion with certain restrictions will be affirmed,.. because that's where a majority of Iowans are.
Not sure I agree on thumping. There is an argument to some extent, that republicans already picked up in ‘20 a lot of the 50/50 races. Not sure how many more they can pick up.
 

Rifler

HR Legend
Jan 26, 2011
24,952
19,882
113
Not sure I agree on thumping. There is an argument to some extent, that republicans already picked up in ‘20 a lot of the 50/50 races. Not sure how many more they can pick up.

Republicans retaining what they have would qualify as a continued Dem thumping...
 

sober_teacher

HR Legend
Mar 26, 2007
13,991
17,460
113
Republicans retaining what they have would qualify as a continued Dem thumping...

I define a thumping as them picking up a bunch more seats. Just keeping what they have, especially during a midterm that was originally expected to be very good, would arguably be a disappointing result imo.
 
  • Like
Reactions: franklinman

Rifler

HR Legend
Jan 26, 2011
24,952
19,882
113
That might be where most Iowans are at but not where most Republican politicians in Iowa are at.

Unconcerned about that,.. The political whores will very quickly align themselves with where they think they need to be for continued employment...
 

StormHawk42

HR Legend
Nov 3, 2009
17,096
18,862
113
Anyone read anything on how state races are expected to go? No idea if either chamber is a possibility, havent heard a peep on gubernatorial race, not that I expect anything.

at best I think Dems can win back the two house races they lost in ‘20.
Already been said but the state government will stay as is. Franken will make it close ish but will ultimately lose to Chuck.

CD’s 1, 2, and 3 are all in play though.
 

WDSMHAWK

HR MVP
Jun 30, 2019
1,317
2,797
113
West Des Moines
Unconcerned about that,.. The political whores will very quickly align themselves with where they think they need to be for continued employment...

I hope you're right but a lot of Red States have passed either outright bans or bans with very limited exceptions.

Plus Kim has shown she does not react kindly to any Republican Legislator that breaks ranks.
 
  • Like
Reactions: cigaretteman

Rifler

HR Legend
Jan 26, 2011
24,952
19,882
113
I hope you're right but a lot of Red States have passed either outright bans or bans with very limited exceptions.

Plus Kim has shown she does not react kindly to any Republican Legislator that breaks ranks.

A number of these were initiated via trigger laws that were passed in various states where a majority of voters didn't even participate because they never thought Roe would ever be overruled,.. It will take some time, but this stuff will correct itself.
 
  • Like
Reactions: abby97
May 27, 2010
15,541
19,550
113
The congressional races will be interesting and I’m not convinced that Grassley is a shoo in either. Franken is very impressive. The State legislature won’t change much if at all and Kim will likely win which is disheartening because she really, really sucks.

Iowa democrats should be beating this abortion rights drum loudly until November, it’s their best issue to rally the vote in their favor.
 

Joes Place

HR King
Aug 28, 2003
125,464
121,651
113
Todd Dorman
Aug. 28, 2022 7:00 am

Kansas voters who soundly defeated an effort to remove abortion protections from the state constitution are a beacon of hope for Iowa Democrats and other defenders of reproductive rights.

The proposed Kansas amendment got thumped, 59 percent to 41 percent. It looked more like a University of Kansas football blowout loss than a red state election.

Turnout surged for the Aug. 2 vote, with more than 900,000 of the state’s voters, nearly half of registered voters, casting ballots. Between June 24, when the U.S. Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade and tossed a constitutional right to abortion, and a mid-July registration deadline, 33,000 Kansans registered to vote.

Advertisement

Of those new voters, 70 percent were women. The court’s decision appears to have changed the electoral landscape in a significant way. Other states have also seen women lead a surge of new voter registrations.

So what about Iowa’s landscape? Well, we’re not in Kansas.

According to the Iowa Secretary of State’s office, 9,483 Iowans registered to vote between June 24 and this past week. That number doesn’t count registered voters who re-registered after moving to a different county. Among them are 1,592 Democrats, 2,392 Republicans and 5,383 no-party voters.

Just more than 50 percent of those new voters are women, or 4,760. So there hasn’t been a Kansas-sized surge of women registering to vote. Male registrations, 4,723, make up just more than 49 percent.

But new registrants do skew young. Fifty-eight percent of women who registered are between the ages of 17 and 24. Iowa allows 17-year-olds who will be 18 by Election Day to register. Add in new registrations from women ages 25-34, the percentage young voters jumps to 72 percent of women who registered. Among male voters who registered, 60 percent are ages 17-24.

So we’re seeing more registrations among younger voters. And we know younger voters are more concerned about abortion rights and oppose curtailing them. Women do make up a slight majority of new registrations. But we’re not seeing a surge in Democratic registrations, although we know many young, potentially left-of-center voters register as independents.

Opinion Newsletter Signup​


Newsletter Signup
checkmark-yellow.png
Delivered to your inbox daily







Young Iowans have the most to lose if abortion is effectively banned. And we’re going to lose more young people if Iowa becomes a place where forced birth becomes state policy.


To be fair, Iowa is in a far different situation than Kansas. Voters there faced a clear up-or-down vote on abortion rights. The election occurred just more than a month after the Dobbs ruling, so outrage over the loss of reproductive rights was still burning hot.


In Iowa, the abortion debate is scattered among dozens of federal, statewide and legislative races this fall. Abortion rights are a huge issue, but not the only issue that will help decide these races. Instead of an up-or-down vote, voters may deliver a messy verdict.


Take the race for governor. Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds supports draconian restrictions on abortion rights. Democrat Deidre DeJear strongly favors abortion rights. It’s the closest thing to a clear vote for or against abortion rights on the ballot.


And yet, a Des Moines Register Mediacom Iowa Poll released in July showed that 24 percent of voters who support legal abortion and plan to vote in November said they would vote for Reynolds. Forty-nine percent said they would vote for the actual pro-choice candidate, DeJear.


Overall, 60 percent of Iowans polled support legal abortion in all or most cases, the highest number ever recorded by an Iowa Poll.


So it’s no surprise Republican candidates are not shouting anti-abortion diatribes from the rooftops. Although abortion was a big issue in several GOP primaries, GOP general election hopefuls are emphasizing economic issues while arguing all Democrats are Joe Biden.


Reynolds has asked a state court to lift an injunction blocking enforcement of a six week abortion ban, picking a slow boat through the courts instead of a special legislative session that would have shined a glaring spotlight on the issue. But the ultimate objective is to get an Iowa Supreme Court ruling that opens the door for harsh restrictions, which she will gladly sign into law. The surest way to protect reproductive rights is to defeat Reynolds.


U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson favors abortion restrictions but has tried to distract voters by saying she opposes charging women who get abortions with crimes and emphasizing her support for a weak measure on over-the-counter contraceptives. But she’s also a co-sponsor of a bill that says life begins at conception. Ignore the rights-trampling elephant in the room.


Iowans who care deeply about reproductive rights aren’t fooled by this stuff. They know the score. But will enough voters who support abortion rights but less passionately cast ballots to turn back the onslaught? At this point, we don’t know.


What we do know is if voters don’t deliver change, Reynolds, the GOP Legislature and a conservative state Supreme Court will yank away the rights of Iowans who want to make difficult, personal medical decisions without government interference. So abortion rights clearly are on the ballot In Iowa, and Democrats and their allies need to work overtime to make sure voters understand the stakes.


It sure will to UIHC and their ObGyn program.
Not a lot of ObGyn med students are going to attend a med school that cannot legally teach them basic D&C/D&E procedures.
 

Joes Place

HR King
Aug 28, 2003
125,464
121,651
113
It will take some time, but this stuff will correct itself.
In the meantime, lots of women will either die or suffer permanent injury from lack of Standard of Care.

In Texas, a woman who could not get a D&E for a miscarriage was going to have a hysterectomy, because the docs at the hospital weren't trained to perform the procedure, and she had to wait until her condition would become "critical" before they could do anything.

Absolutely NO REASON for this nonsense.
 

Rifler

HR Legend
Jan 26, 2011
24,952
19,882
113
In the meantime, lots of women will either die or suffer permanent injury from lack of Standard of Care.

In Texas, a woman who could not get a D&E for a miscarriage was going to have a hysterectomy, because the docs at the hospital weren't trained to perform the procedure, and she had to wait until her condition would become "critical" before they could do anything.

Absolutely NO REASON for this nonsense.

I agree with the nonsense part...
 

KFsdisciple

HR Legend
Jul 3, 2003
12,327
2,659
113
In the meantime, lots of women will either die or suffer permanent injury from lack of Standard of Care.

In Texas, a woman who could not get a D&E for a miscarriage was going to have a hysterectomy, because the docs at the hospital weren't trained to perform the procedure, and she had to wait until her condition would become "critical" before they could do anything.

Absolutely NO REASON for this nonsense.
And while all that was going on how many babies lives were saved? What is the actual cost/benefit ratio? I don’t know, In america is abortion performed every 10 minutes? Why aren’t we we at least looking at this holistically?
 

Joes Place

HR King
Aug 28, 2003
125,464
121,651
113
And while all that was going on how many babies lives were saved? What is the actual cost/benefit ratio?

It's enormous.

Preventing a serious condition with a simple D&E or D&C will save many thousands in emergency care costs for many women.

As already noted, ONE woman who was forced to wait was going to end up with a hysterectomy, never being able to give birth again, because she could not get a basic D&C procedure early on.

Stay out of the issues that do not impact YOU; let other people make their decisions, you make yours.
 

KFsdisciple

HR Legend
Jul 3, 2003
12,327
2,659
113
It's enormous.

Preventing a serious condition with a simple D&E or D&C will save many thousands in emergency care costs for many women.

As already noted, ONE woman who was forced to wait was going to end up with a hysterectomy, never being able to give birth again, because she could not get a basic D&C procedure early on.

Stay out of the issues that do not impact YOU; let other people make their decisions, you make yours.
hey men can get pregnant and have babies too. you guys set the rules... now all of a sudden men can't have babies? This is the problem with the left virtue signaling on EVERY POSSIBLE ISSUE... eventually reality will set in and all your arguments are shit because they have no foundation.
 

IowaPackFan

HR All-American
Dec 30, 2006
3,376
1,288
113
....the right to abortion with certain restrictions will be affirmed,.. because that's where a majority of Iowans are.
I am pretty confident this is true. A vast majority will be fine with it as long as it is restricted to the first 6-18 weeks (somewhere in there probably) and in other "commonsense" situations. There are some who want it nixed in nearly every instance just as there are some who are fine with it 30 seconds before full term delivery-- both of those are elevated to the top come those who argue for or against.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Rifler

IowaPackFan

HR All-American
Dec 30, 2006
3,376
1,288
113
This is most decidedly untrue.
Six states and the District of Columbia have no limit on when an abortion can be done so long as it occurs prior to birth.


  • 44 states prohibit some abortions after a certain point in pregnancy.
    • 9 states ban abortion.
    • 4 states ban abortion at 6 weeks LMP.
    • 1 state bans abortion at 15 weeks LMP.
    • 1 state bans abortion at 20 weeks LMP.
    • 9 states ban abortion at 22 weeks LMP (20 weeks postfertilization in state law) on the unscientific grounds that a fetus can feel pain at that point.
    • 4 states ban abortion at 24 weeks LMP.
    • 16 states impose a ban at viability.
    • 1 state imposes a ban in the third trimester (beginning at 25 weeks LMP)
 

sober_teacher

HR Legend
Mar 26, 2007
13,991
17,460
113

joelbc1

HR King
Gold Member
Sep 5, 2007
73,813
38,975
113
you can’t always get what you want!
Dems will get thumped but the right to abortion with certain restrictions will be affirmed,.. because that's where a majority of Iowans are.
It makes no difference where “the majority of Iowans are” on any issue as long as the Iowa GOP has a stranglehold on the Legislative and Executive branches here.
The “constitutional amendment” on the ballot this year will be kept “secret” as long as possible as Iowa Republicans (conservatives, evangelicals) do not want to risk a repeat of the Kansas massacre. I am sure they figure the fewer Iowans who vote improves the chances the abortion issue will not pass and become part of the Constitution. Then, they will turn their Legislators loose next session and pass something rediculous and restrictive making abortion tantamount to a schoolhouse massacre.
 

Rifler

HR Legend
Jan 26, 2011
24,952
19,882
113
It makes no difference where “the majority of Iowans are” on any issue as long as the Iowa GOP has a stranglehold on the Legislative and Executive branches here.
The “constitutional amendment” on the ballot this year will be kept “secret” as long as possible as Iowa Republicans (conservatives, evangelicals) do not want to risk a repeat of the Kansas massacre. I am sure they figure the fewer Iowans who vote improves the chances the abortion issue will not pass and become part of the Constitution. Then, they will turn their Legislators loose next session and pass something rediculous and restrictive making abortion tantamount to a schoolhouse massacre.

Of course it makes a difference,.. If current legislators push something through that a majority of Iowa voters view as unacceptable these legislators will be tossed and replaced,... The average soft spoken Iowan is somewhere in the middle on this abortion conversation, but they won't remain soft spoken if the current legislature gets too far off into the weeds.
 

KFsdisciple

HR Legend
Jul 3, 2003
12,327
2,659
113
What percent say it should be legal "within 30s of delivery"?

And it SHOULD be legal in the 3rd trimester. Because there are circumstances where it is medically necessary.
I'm not able to find a poll that actually has asked the question, my guess is either its an insignificant number or whatever the number is, there's not a respectable poll that isn't completely partisan that people would want to hear that number from.

for instance perhaps Rasmussen knows its 8-10% well that isn't a number the left wants out there, so they wouldn't report it... but a fox news poll that said 8-10% wouldn't be believed anyway because its a fox news poll. so know one really knows the answer.
 

joelbc1

HR King
Gold Member
Sep 5, 2007
73,813
38,975
113
you can’t always get what you want!
Of course it makes a difference,.. If current legislators push something through that a majority of Iowa voters view as unacceptable these legislators will be tossed and replaced,... The average soft spoken Iowan is somewhere in the middle on this abortion conversation, but they won't remain soft spoken if the current legislature gets too far off into the weeds.
No they won’t...once the new law is made, it will take hell to freeze over before it can be changed. Iowans just don’t really care...and it is obvious by the choices they make to represent them.
Polls show most “soft spoken” Iowans favor abortion accessibility, like existed under Roe...but that did not stöp the Legislature from drawing up a more restrictive law and passing it.....Iowa polls showed Iowans liked the “election rules” in place in 2020 but the Legilature made them more restrictive nonetheless.
These Republicans do not give a shit about what “most Iowans” want....they are driven by giving Iowans what they decide IowNs need.
 

KFsdisciple

HR Legend
Jul 3, 2003
12,327
2,659
113
No they won’t...once the new law is made, it will take hell to freeze over before it can be changed. Iowans just don’t really care...and it is obvious by the choices they make to represent them.
Polls show most “soft spoken” Iowans favor abortion accessibility, like existed under Roe...but that did not stöp the Legislature from drawing up a more restrictive law and passing it.....Iowa polls showed Iowans liked the “election rules” in place in 2020 but the Legilature made them more restrictive nonetheless.
These Republicans do not give a shit about what “most Iowans” want....they are driven by giving Iowans what they decide IowNs need.
You make it sound as if the democrats don't do the same thing ALL the time? Most americans weren't in favor of build back better... so they repackaged it as "inflation reduction act" pushed it through and that's just one example of unpopular policy the left has pushed on us. Both sides do it, its not a R or D thing. There's a reason the left wants to get rid of the filibuster.. its not because most of the country agrees with all their policies.
 

Joes Place

HR King
Aug 28, 2003
125,464
121,651
113
You make it sound as if the democrats don't do the same thing ALL the time? Most americans weren't in favor of build back better... so they repackaged it as "inflation reduction act"

Uh,no

Most Americans WERE in favor of it.

Manchin wasn't. IRA threw some extra goodies in for his state.
 
  • Haha
Reactions: KFsdisciple