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About time for another one of these

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OK, deniers, explain how the warmistas don't really keep moving the goalposts and changing the rules to fit their theory, instead of changing their theory to fit the facts.

http://dailycaller.com/2015/06/04/n...a-to-erase-the-15-year-global-warming-hiatus/
There are valid and important reasons to adjust data. New equipment, changing locations, calibration issues, etc. BUT! If the signal you are trying to tease out is about equal to, or even less than, the amplitude of the adjustments being made...then you better have some iron-clad and fully transparent justifications for said adjustments. This has not been the case generally in relation to the climate debate. One of the biggest red flags, even if the adjustments turn out to be largely valid, is the level of secrecy, obstruction, and obfuscation that has been thrown up around these tweaks to data sets in the past. In most cases they have not been very well advertised (they had to be discovered by outside observers), they have not subsequently been very well justified, and the methodology behind them has been far from transparent, often with proponents going to great lengths to keep it away from scrutiny. I haven't looked at these latest adjustments to know for sure that this is the case, but based on the track record, I would be very, very skeptical. In this debate, the willingness of both sides to play fast and loose with data, severely downplay the unknown and contradictory data, make outrageous and non-sensical correlations, and just outright lie about stuff makes it very difficult to even have a reasonable discussion, let alone come to any sort of mutual consensus beyond the most basic premises.
 
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There are valid and important reasons to adjust data. New equipment, changing locations, calibration issues, etc. BUT! If the signal you are trying to tease out is about equal to, or even less than, the amplitude of the adjustments being made...then you better have some iron-clad and fully transparent justifications for said adjustments. This has not been the case generally in relation to the climate debate. One of the biggest red flags, even if the adjustments turn out to be largely valid, is the level of secrecy, obstruction, and obfuscation that has been thrown up around these tweaks to data sets in the past. In most cases they have not been very well advertised (they had to be discovered by outside observers), they have not subsequently been very well justified, and the methodology behind them has been far from transparent, often with proponents going to great lengths to keep it away from scrutiny. I haven't looked at these latest adjustments to know for sure that this is the case, but based on the track record, I would be very, very skeptical. In this debate, the willingness of both sides to play fast and loose with data, severely downplay the unknown and contradictory data, make outrageous and non-sensical correlations, and just outright lie about stuff makes it very difficult to even have a reasonable discussion, let alone come to any sort of mutual consensus beyond the most basic premises.
There is an aspect to this with irony that provokes serious giggles......what about all the "scientists" who have moved heaven and earth to explain the pause in warming? They, in turn, are going to have to change -- yet again -- to accommodate the scenario if there has been no pause.

This is a fairly good example of the problem I've been mentioning every time this issue is raised. The warmistas simply are not acting like objective scientists. They are acting like advocates. A scientist, confronted with facts that don't fit his theory, would re-examine his theory to find where it might be flawed. These people simply try to change the facts to fit their theory.

Meanwhile, an allegedly objective study by university researchers that supported the EPA rules turns out to have been conducted in cooperation with EPA by researchers who have received upwards of $45 million in grants.
 
This pretty much says it all. If they don't like what they see, add a little here, take away a little there and invalidate the results that are clearly showing there is no man-made global warming. What a bunch of idiots. Anything to keep getting their research grants and keep them high on the hog.



"The U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s “statement of two years ago — that the global surface temperature has shown a much smaller increasing linear trend over the past 15 years than over the past 30 to 60 years’ — is no longer valid,” the study claims."
 
IMCC, I like your post but it goes beyond one motive. What it's really about is the confluence of interests where academics lose integrity because of leftist inertia and anti-free market politicians join with grant-dependent scientists to put forth a narrative that empowers and enriches the interests of all 3 groups.
 
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Meanwhile, an allegedly objective study by university researchers that supported the EPA rules turns out to have been conducted in cooperation with EPA by researchers who have received upwards of $45 million in grants.

Yes...but it is the relatively few million dollars that "Big Oil" outlays on research that is the real problem...
 
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This pretty much says it all. If they don't like what they see, add a little here, take away a little there and invalidate the results that are clearly showing there is no man-made global warming. What a bunch of idiots. Anything to keep getting their research grants and keep them high on the hog.



"The U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s “statement of two years ago — that the global surface temperature has shown a much smaller increasing linear trend over the past 15 years than over the past 30 to 60 years’ — is no longer valid,” the study claims."

There are clearly anthropogenic effects on the climate. On the whole, human activity likely provides a net warming input to the system. So to say that there is no man-made global warming is overstating and detracts from your position. The real argument is whether we are talking about human activity being a major influence, or a drop in the ocean, or somewhere in between and what will the consequences be. Based on everything I have seen, it is somewhere in between, but MUCH closer to the "drop in the ocean" end of the spectrum than the other way and the consequences are not anywhere close to as dire as the politically motivated want you to believe.
 
There is an aspect to this with irony that provokes serious giggles......what about all the "scientists" who have moved heaven and earth to explain the pause in warming? They, in turn, are going to have to change -- yet again -- to accommodate the scenario if there has been no pause.

This is a fairly good example of the problem I've been mentioning every time this issue is raised. The warmistas simply are not acting like objective scientists. They are acting like advocates. A scientist, confronted with facts that don't fit his theory, would re-examine his theory to find where it might be flawed. These people simply try to change the facts to fit their theory.

Meanwhile, an allegedly objective study by university researchers that supported the EPA rules turns out to have been conducted in cooperation with EPA by researchers who have received upwards of $45 million in grants.
Objectivism checked out of this debate a long, long time ago (if it ever existed in any meaningful way to begin with). I have always found it both funny and sad that the ones who generally shout the loudest about their opponents being "anti-science" are also the most cavalier and disrespectful of actual scientific method.
 
There are clearly anthropogenic effects on the climate. On the whole, human activity likely provides a net warming input to the system. So to say that there is no man-made global warming is overstating and detracts from your position. The real argument is whether we are talking about human activity being a major influence, or a drop in the ocean, or somewhere in between and what will the consequences be. Based on everything I have seen, it is somewhere in between, but MUCH closer to the "drop in the ocean" end of the spectrum than the other way and the consequences are not anywhere close to as dire as the politically motivated want you to believe.

I like your reply but I have one question. Since the majority of the data comes from the last 150 years. And the "core sample" data that provides long term research depends on software written by scientists with an agenda driven by self-interest. Isn't part of the problem that we've made conclusions without enough data? When you get down to it the hysteria is based off of a small (geologic) time sample. And haven't we failed to take into account that the earth seems to have spent the last 4 billion years becoming an organism (not unlike humanity) capable of adapting to the ever-changing solar, chemical and geologic events that define our planet? The very idea of stopping the climate from changing seems to be more than an exercise in hubris, but likely an idea that is counter-intuitive to the needs of our biosphere. Parts of Africa that we have come to define as drought-prone and unfriendly to lush life are NOW getting lots of rain for the first time in modern meteorology. Could it not be THAT change is an indicator of how the planet adapts to changing biosphere inputs/outputs?
 
I look forward to this thread in a month when LC starts another one just like it.
 
I look forward to this thread in a month when LC starts another one just like it.

Yep, uninformed person reads another uninformed person's mistaken interpretation of latest scientific evidence and mistakenly assumes said new evidence somehow supports his uninformed opinions, soon to be joined by other uninformed people in their concurrence with initial mistaken interpretation.
 
Anyone dumb enough to buy the fiction that the welfare state is a good thing is dumb enough to think the earth is turning into venus
 
I like your reply but I have one question. Since the majority of the data comes from the last 150 years. And the "core sample" data that provides long term research depends on software written by scientists with an agenda driven by self-interest. Isn't part of the problem that we've made conclusions without enough data? When you get down to it the hysteria is based off of a small (geologic) time sample. And haven't we failed to take into account that the earth seems to have spent the last 4 billion years becoming an organism (not unlike humanity) capable of adapting to the ever-changing solar, chemical and geologic events that define our planet? The very idea of stopping the climate from changing seems to be more than an exercise in hubris, but likely an idea that is counter-intuitive to the needs of our biosphere. Parts of Africa that we have come to define as drought-prone and unfriendly to lush life are NOW getting lots of rain for the first time in modern meteorology. Could it not be THAT change is an indicator of how the planet adapts to changing biosphere inputs/outputs?
The earth's climate is an ever-changing, wildly complex system with millions of inputs. We do not have them all identified (not even close), and we really do not have much of handle on the relative strength of the variables that we are aware of or how they interact. Contrary to popular discourse, we really don't know how much of an effect human activity is having on climate relative to natural variation (and so we really don't know how much of an effect we could have if we were trying to manipulate the climate in reaction to perceived human influences).

We can make some historic inferences about the climate based on core samples, tree rings, etc...but breaking out average global temperatures over the millennia to the hundredths of a degree celsius is quite a stretch and requires assumptions that are far more powerful in the formulas than the underlying data in many cases. Obviously these assumptions are highly compromised by lack of knowledge and bias (of which there is plenty of both).

I personally find the proposition that a small increase in a trace gas, which is a relatively weak greenhouse agent, is causing a catastrophic greenhouse effect which will eventually initiate a positive feedback chain that is unprecedented in known earth science and completely unsupported by empirical data to be a bit sensational. I am not ready to hamstring the world economy and hand massive amounts of control and freedom over to corrupt international bureaucrats over it, that is for sure.
 
I don't know man.... You have to wear a mask to walk around parts of China and can't see the stars in LA. Global warming or not it'd be nice to chill out a bit.
 
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I don't know man.... You have to wear a mask to walk around parts of China and can't see the stars in LA. Global warming or not it'd be nice to chill out a bit.

Ummmmm, the stars in LA can't be seen because of LIGHT pollution. That's why Griffith observatory was built where it is. But now even it is effected by artificial light. But if you peer thru their telescope you can still see the stars.

As for wanting to chill out ------->http://isthereglobalcooling.com/
 
I don't know man.... You have to wear a mask to walk around parts of China and can't see the stars in LA. Global warming or not it'd be nice to chill out a bit.

Reminds me of when I was stationed in Korea around 2006. There were days when the Yellow Dust count was high and out door exposure should be limited. When I was there it seemed like the occurrence lasted about a month with scatterings of random yellow dust days afterwards. Naturally yellow dust comes from winds blowing it up in the Gobi Desert. However, special treats are added because of China's industrial works which is what makes the yellow dust dangerous.

Sulfur (an acid rain component), soot, ash, carbon monoxide, and other toxic pollutants including heavy metals (such as mercury, cadmium, chromium, arsenic, lead, zinc, copper) and other carcinogens, often accompany the dust storms, as well as viruses, bacteria, fungi, pesticides, antibiotics, asbestos, herbicides, plastic ingredients, combustion products as well as hormone mimicking phthalates. Though scientists have known that intercontinental dust plumes can ferry bacteria and viruses, "most people had assumed that the [sun's] ultraviolet light would sterilize these clouds," says microbiologist Dale W. Griffin, also with the USGS in St. Petersburg, "We now find that isn't true." Pulled from wiki
 
Yep, uninformed person reads another uninformed person's mistaken interpretation of latest scientific evidence and mistakenly assumes said new evidence somehow supports his uninformed opinions, soon to be joined by other uninformed people in their concurrence with initial mistaken interpretation.
You're right. Climate Alarmists are so ill informed and reactionary. Codflyer said it best. Now, suck it
 
LOL...gotta love the deniers. They whine about scientists and researchers fitting data to preconceived notions - a path to professional suicide, btw - then spend an entire thread doing exactly what they complain about. Well done.
 
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LOL...gotta love the deniers. They whine about scientists and researchers fitting data to preconceived notions - a path to professional suicide, btw - then spend an entire thread doing exactly what they complain about. Well done.
You can't be that obtuse.
 
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