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After the Big12 and ACC are raided, is there enough leftover to form a 4th “Power” conference

FSUTribe76

HR Heisman
Jan 23, 2008
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After the Big12 and ACC are raided, is there enough leftover to form a 4th “Power” conference from the remnants of the Big 12 and ACC as well as the AAC, Conference USA, Mountain West. In previous years I would say definitively NO, but now that the grant of rights were given to the players so they can make money directly…schools situated in large metro areas are suddenly sitting on increased cash/power. It actually somewhat levels the playing field of big P5 universities located in distant tiny college towns with those G5 schools in big urban areas.

So for this purpose I’m going to assume the SEC takes FSU, Clemson, Virginia Tech and NC State, that the Big 10 takes Pitt, Syracuse, Georgia Tech, UVA, Notre Dame and UNC, and that either the PAC-12 takes Texas Tech, TCU, Houston, Kansas and Oklahoma State, or some combination of the PAC, Big and SEC does.

So that leaves “stranded” Miami, Wake Forest, Duke, Louisville, Boston College, West Virginia, Iowa State, Baylor and Kansas State. That in and of itself is too weak to reform and create an attractive P4 league. But let’s also look at some of the other leagues. The AAC has valuable teams in USF, UCF, Cincinnati (likely top 10 team), Memphis, East Carolina, Tulsa and SMU. CUSA has some interesting larger metro teams and/or historically decent teams in Marshall, FIU, FAU, UAB and UTEP as does the Sunbelt in Georgia Southern, App State, and Louisiana. The Mountain West has some interesting teams in Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State, and Fresno State. BYU is a nice independent that could be plucked.

So I would suggest taking the very best of the remaining teams and form a new conference called the Special Conference from Atlantic to Pacific Syndacate or SCRAPS for short. The new SCRAPS conference would have Miami, West Virginia, Louisville, BYU, Cincinnati, UCF, USF, Iowa State, Baylor, Kansas State, Marshall, East Carolina, Memphis, Louisiana, Duke, San Diego State, Fresno State, Colorado State, UTEP and Tulsa. That’s not a dominant league like the SEC and Big Ten, but it’s not THAT far off from the PAC. If Miami and Louisville get back to where they came from and USF and UCF become what they are capable of, then that’s equivalent to USC, Washington and Oregon.
 
Why do people seem to think 20 team "conferences" are remotely viable? The SEC has an 8 game schedule. Even if they bump it to a 9 game schedule, a team would still *never* play the teams in the other division.
 
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The power actually belongs to the colleges. People are saying the big 12 is screwed in their fight with ESPN...that might be true. ESPN though is truly screwed. Would you trust them on anything now? At some point the rest of the country is going to say no thank you. This type of thing by the way has the power to rise to the attention of the federal government especially to those people in Congress from the rest of the country that might not like ESPN making these decisions.

ESPN was already on the way down and this looks like a desperate attempt to stay in the driver's seat. It will likely work in the short term but linger term who would trust them enough to do business with them. There are a lot more ways to get football to the masses than ESPN and the tv contracts are going to go down regardless.
 
Why do people seem to think 20 team "conferences" are remotely viable? The SEC has an 8 game schedule. Even if they bump it to a 9 game schedule, a team would still *never* play the teams in the other division.
I think if you get a 20-24 team conference you play a 10-11 conference slate and have no issues with strength of schedule, get 1-2 pre-season cupcake revenue games, but the rare Bama/Michigan preseason game will likely be a thing of the past.

I also think the ultimate goal is going to be play-offs with automatic qualifiers and less eyeball test decisions from a group of AD's.
 
I think if you get a 20-24 team conference you play a 10-11 conference slate and have no issues with strength of schedule, get 1-2 pre-season cupcake revenue games, but the rare Bama/Michigan preseason game will likely be a thing of the past.

I also think the ultimate goal is going to be play-offs with automatic qualifiers and less eyeball test decisions from a group of AD's.

I agree with you for the most part. Especially the 10 conference slate, no reason to play too many non conference. But I think one or two non conference games against decent teams wouldn’t hurt too much in the world of expanded playoffs. Maybe even expand the regular season an extra game so you can still have two chumps…I mean FCS or G5 teams…as warmups.
 
I agree with you for the most part. Especially the 10 conference slate, no reason to play too many non conference. But I think one or two non conference games against decent teams wouldn’t hurt too much in the world of expanded playoffs. Maybe even expand the regular season an extra game so you can still have two chumps…I mean FCS or G5 teams…as warmups.

The stupid "warm-up" games need to end.
 
The Pac(12) when they expand should grab Hawaii and let Hawaii have ALL conference games at home once they build their new stadium (Aloha Stadium is a serious dump). Imagine telling a recruit of the other conference schools that you will be able to go to Hawaii 4 times (division opponents) and non-division opponents at least twice. That could tip a recruit to your team.
 
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The Pac(12) when they expand should grab Hawaii and let Hawaii have ALL conference games at home once they build their new stadium (Aloha Stadium is a serious dump). Imagine telling a recruit of the other conference schools that you will be able to go to Hawaii 4 times (division opponents) and non-division opponents at least twice. That could tip a recruit to your team.

Good plan! I agree.

Take Hawaii with your plan and add in either Boise State, BYU or Texas Tech. Maybe all three.
 
After the Big12 and ACC are raided, is there enough leftover to form a 4th “Power” conference from the remnants of the Big 12 and ACC as well as the AAC, Conference USA, Mountain West. In previous years I would say definitively NO, but now that the grant of rights were given to the players so they can make money directly…schools situated in large metro areas are suddenly sitting on increased cash/power. It actually somewhat levels the playing field of big P5 universities located in distant tiny college towns with those G5 schools in big urban areas.

So for this purpose I’m going to assume the SEC takes FSU, Clemson, Virginia Tech and NC State, that the Big 10 takes Pitt, Syracuse, Georgia Tech, UVA, Notre Dame and UNC, and that either the PAC-12 takes Texas Tech, TCU, Houston, Kansas and Oklahoma State, or some combination of the PAC, Big and SEC does.

So that leaves “stranded” Miami, Wake Forest, Duke, Louisville, Boston College, West Virginia, Iowa State, Baylor and Kansas State. That in and of itself is too weak to reform and create an attractive P4 league. But let’s also look at some of the other leagues. The AAC has valuable teams in USF, UCF, Cincinnati (likely top 10 team), Memphis, East Carolina, Tulsa and SMU. CUSA has some interesting larger metro teams and/or historically decent teams in Marshall, FIU, FAU, UAB and UTEP as does the Sunbelt in Georgia Southern, App State, and Louisiana. The Mountain West has some interesting teams in Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State, and Fresno State. BYU is a nice independent that could be plucked.

So I would suggest taking the very best of the remaining teams and form a new conference called the Special Conference from Atlantic to Pacific Syndacate or SCRAPS for short. The new SCRAPS conference would have Miami, West Virginia, Louisville, BYU, Cincinnati, UCF, USF, Iowa State, Baylor, Kansas State, Marshall, East Carolina, Memphis, Louisiana, Duke, San Diego State, Fresno State, Colorado State, UTEP and Tulsa. That’s not a dominant league like the SEC and Big Ten, but it’s not THAT far off from the PAC. If Miami and Louisville get back to where they came from and USF and UCF become what they are capable of, then that’s equivalent to USC, Washington and Oregon.

You give too much weight to some programs. Kansas isn't attractive. It's football that generates revenue, and Kansas is a perennial doormat. 30,000 fan attendance doesn't contribute much to coffers. The Texas programs, even Okie State are not solid revenue generators (TV markets).

I read UCF has a campus enrollment of 66,000. If so, how that translates to fan interest will be interesting. Extrapolate that enrollment figure to an avg. campus and you would need a stadium seating, say 160,000. Well, anyway.

Things will remain static for a few years while programs will be negotiating and dealing under the surface. The cannibalizing will begin.

If college football continues the race for the dollar, nothing is sacred. Existing agreements are farts in the wind. The pyramid will get taller and narrower. It will be critical for the NCAA or whatever organization is in place to maintain order and control.
 
Really and truly, there's just two real power conferences anyway - the B1G and the SEC. The PAC, ACC, and B12 are just along for the ride, and it's not entirely out of the question that somewhere down the line, the best teams left standing in those 3 conferences ultimately end up in the B1G or SEC.
 
The Pac(12) when they expand should grab Hawaii and let Hawaii have ALL conference games at home once they build their new stadium (Aloha Stadium is a serious dump). Imagine telling a recruit of the other conference schools that you will be able to go to Hawaii 4 times (division opponents) and non-division opponents at least twice. That could tip a recruit to your team.
I doubt it. It's not like going to a bowl game where you are there for a week and can have some fun.

The pitch would be more like, "We leave on Thursday, take a flight that probably lasts 8-9 hours including a connection, take a day to acclimate / sleep / walk through the game plan, hammer a Hawaii team in a game no one other than our own fans will watch, then take a flight back to the mainland right after the game that will leave you wondering what day it is and probably screw up your Monday as well. How's that sound to you Billy Bob?"
 
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They may as well just go to 4 X 16 super conferences with 4 divisions within each. Play 3 teams in your division each year plus a fixed cross division rival and then 2 other teams in each division that doesn't include your cross division rival to get you to 10 games. Then play 2 non conference games. Do we really need a conference championship? If so, then 4 division winners enter the playoffs within their own bracket. Winners of each bracket in essence are you conference champion and are the final 4 playoffs. Money is split evenly.
 
The paradigm will shift someday to games people actually want to watch. When that happens I don’t know.

currently the system is based on number of TV sets in a market and nobody really cares if they are watching a second. Millions and millions of people give money to the BTN SEC network and ESPN every month and never watch it.

when we get to that point we will be talking about 20-30 teams, not conferences.
 
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12 games, all in your conference. BIG10 West plays each member of its division TWICE on a home & away rotation. 6 home games and 6 away games. Then the BIG10 Conference championship game East v. West.
 
Really and truly, there's just two real power conferences anyway - the B1G and the SEC. The PAC, ACC, and B12 are just along for the ride, and it's not entirely out of the question that somewhere down the line, the best teams left standing in those 3 conferences ultimately end up in the B1G or SEC.

It’s more accurate to say Alabama, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Clemson, and Georgia are the only teams that matter and all of the other teams are just along for the ride.
 
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The paradigm will shift someday to games people actually want to watch. When that happens I don’t know.

currently the system is based on number of TV sets in a market and nobody really cares if they are watching a second. Millions and millions of people give money to the BTN SEC network and ESPN every month and never watch it.

when we get to that point we will be talking about 20-30 teams, not conferences.

I think there’s more than 30 teams worthy of being kept in the NFLlite. But I do think it shouldn’t be whole leagues surviving but rather a plucking of teams across the leagues.

Elite - ie highly watched teams in Alphabetical order

Alabama
Auburn
Clemson
Florida
Florida State
Georgia
LSU
Miami
Michigan
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pedo
Texas
Texas A&M
USC

Those 17 have the most watched and most searched for programs, so you start with those as a base and include everyone of them.

Highly Watched Teams below Elite Level

Iowa
Louisville
Michigan State
Nebraska
Ole Miss
Oklahoma State
TCU
Tennesssee
UCLA
Virginia Tech
Washington
Wisconsin

If you bring in this group of 12 you get 29 programs. But it’s pretty unbalanced throughout the US.

Decently Watched and Searched for Teams

Arkansas
Arizona State
BYU
Cal-Berkeley
Indiana
Mississippi State
Minnesota
North Carolina
North Carolina State
Pittsburgh
Stanford
Syracuse
Texas Tech
Utah
West Virginia

You probably fill out the rest of the league from this list. But not all of these likely make it in depending on where you stop.

Teams that didn’t make the cut from P5 leagues

Arizona
Baylor
Boston College
Colorado
Duke
Illinois
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Maryland
Missouri
Northwestern
Purdue
Rutgers
South Carolina
Vanderbilt
Wake Forest
Washington State
 
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I think there’s more than 30 teams worthy of being kept in the NFLlite. But I do think it shouldn’t be whole leagues surviving but rather a plucking of teams across the leagues.

Elite - ie highly watched teams in Alphabetical order

Alabama
Auburn
Clemson
Florida
Florida State
Georgia
LSU
Miami
Michigan
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pedo
Texas
Texas A&M
USC

Those 17 have the most watched and most searched for programs, so you start with those as a base and include everyone of them.

Highly Watched Teams below Elite Level

Iowa
Louisville
Michigan State
Nebraska
Ole Miss
Oklahoma State
TCU
Tennesssee
UCLA
Virginia Tech
Washington
Wisconsin

If you bring in this group of 12 you get 29 programs. But it’s pretty unbalanced throughout the US.

Decently Watched and Searched for Teams

Arkansas
Arizona State
BYU
Cal-Berkeley

Indiana
Mississippi State
Minnesota
North Carolina
North Carolina State
Pittsburgh
Stanford
Syracuse
Texas Tech
Utah
West Virginia

You probably fill out the rest of the league from this list. But not all of these likely make it in depending on where you stop.

Teams that didn’t make the cut from P5 leagues

Arizona
Baylor
Boston College
Colorado
Duke
Illinois
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Maryland
Missouri
Northwestern
Purdue
Rutgers
South Carolina
Wake Forest
Washington State
I think you're missing Vanderbilt, which is fine, they should be left out.
 
It’s more accurate to say Alabama, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Clemson, and Georgia are the only teams that matter and all of the other teams are just along for the ride.
And among those, it's really Alabama and Ohio State that call the shots. Clemson had a really strong half decade, but we don't know if this year is a blip, or merely the start of them crashing back to Earth. UGA and Oklahoma are great programs but just seem to be a half step behind Bama and the Bucks.

Alabama is in the midst of an unprecedented run of dominance, but are they going to remain relevant once Saban retires? He's 70 years old and I guarantee that other programs are using that fact against him when competing for recruits. It's highly unlikely they'll be able to maintain the same level of success after Saban hangs it up - doesn't mean they won't be strong, but I can see them become just another "very good" program like Florida, Penn State, or Notre Dame. Ohio State has proven that it can withstand multiple coaching changes and not miss a beat - it's probably the one program that can sell itself more than any other in the country.
 
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Really and truly, there's just two real power conferences anyway - the B1G and the SEC. The PAC, ACC, and B12 are just along for the ride, and it's not entirely out of the question that somewhere down the line, the best teams left standing in those 3 conferences ultimately end up in the B1G or SEC.

All teams in the B1G are not safe. The Iowa's, Nebraska's, and Minnies are not safe. Big markets will be the driver, not geography. Realignment is not good news for college football.
 
Really and truly, there's just two real power conferences anyway - the B1G and the SEC. The PAC, ACC, and B12 are just along for the ride, and it's not entirely out of the question that somewhere down the line, the best teams left standing in those 3 conferences ultimately end up in the B1G or SEC.

All I know is that the ACC is trash. Our contract is junk and we are stuck with it until 2036
 
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