Analysis: Could Sarah Palin have cost the GOP a House seat?

cigaretteman

HR King
May 29, 2001
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Alaska’s new ranked-choice election system might have saved Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s (R-Alaska) political career. And there’s a reasonable chance it might also short-circuit Sarah Palin’s attempt to resurrect hers.
The Post’s Aaron Blake writes that the current special election results suggest that we could see a surprising upset for Democrats ahead of what was supposed to be a good 2022 midterm for Republicans — an upset that could plausibly be blamed on Palin. Per Aaron:
Election results from Tuesday show Peltola leading Palin on first-choice votes, 38 percent to 32 percent, with 70 percent of expected votes counted. There are many votes left, but it looks like the race will come down to those two, with another Republican, Nick Begich, currently in third place with 28.6 percent.
Alaska’s ranked-choice system works by distilling the general election down to four candidates using an open, nonpartisan primary. From there, voters rank those four candidates according to preference. After the first-choice votes are counted, the fourth-place candidate is eliminated, and their voters get distributed among those voters’ second choice candidates. Then the third-place candidate is eliminated, distributing their voters between the remaining two candidates, until one candidate wins more than half of the total votes.
Palin’s fate appears to mostly boil down to one thing: whether enough of Begich’s voters marked her as their second choice.
You can read the full analysis here.
 

KFSuperStar

HR MVP
Jul 2, 2009
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Republicans are running such terrible candidates I’d say the Dems keep the house and the senate.

Extra embarrassing considering this midterm should be a layup considering the ammo Republicans had given to them: Afghanistan, inflation, border, crime, dementia.
 
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cigaretteman

HR King
May 29, 2001
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Republicans are running such terrible candidates I’d say the Dems keep the house and the senate.

Extra embarrassing considering this midterm should be a layup considering the ammo Republicans had given to them: Afghanistan, inflation, border, crime, dementia.
And much of the blame for those terrible candidates can be placed squarely on Trump! You would think the party leadership would start distancing from him, but they are all scared of him and cowards.
 

Tom Paris

HR Legend
Gold Member
Oct 1, 2001
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And much of the blame for those terrible candidates can be placed squarely on Trump! You would think the party leadership would start distancing from him, but they are all scared of him and cowards.
He IS the party and they know it. If a Republican speaks out against him, they will most likely lose. The Republican base is that bananas. Look at Cari Lake in Arizona. Hagemann in Wyoming. These two ladies are batshit crazy and the base loves the illogical garbage they spew. I just can't get over the damage right wing propaganda has done to our populace.
 

baddog25

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Aug 6, 2018
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Thumbnail
 

LuteHawk

HR Legend
Nov 30, 2011
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Dr. Oz in Pennsylvania, H.Walker in Georgia and Sarah
Palin in Alaska, remind you of "The Three Stooges".
These 3 idiots should not have been allowed to run for a
seat in the U.S. Senate or House. GOP is still hostage
to Donald Trump and will not regain a majority in Congress..
 

ichawkeye

HR Heisman
Gold Member
Jan 11, 2003
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Watch ranked-choice voting come under attack.

Peltola won because Republicans couldn't consolidate to one preferred candidate. Peltola had 40% of first-choice votes, while Begich and Palin collectively earned 60% of first-choice votes with neither at/above 40%. The second-choice for Begich was then too commonly Peltola, which prevented Palin from overcoming Peltola's first-choice vote lead.

Ranked-choice voting more accurately represents a population, and arguably finds the common-ground among voters.
 

tarheelbybirth

HR King
Apr 17, 2003
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Watch ranked-choice voting come under attack.

Peltola won because Republicans couldn't consolidate to one preferred candidate. Peltola had 40% of first-choice votes, while Begich and Palin collectively earned 60% of first-choice votes with neither at/above 40%. The second-choice for Begich was then too commonly Peltola, which prevented Palin from overcoming Peltola's first-choice vote lead.

Ranked-choice voting more accurately represents a population, and arguably finds the common-ground among voters.
Begich might have won straight up...probably would have. I'm not sure Palin could beat Peltola head-to-head. So Trump/Palin and the cult cost the GOP the seat for now. I'm good with that.
 

ichawkeye

HR Heisman
Gold Member
Jan 11, 2003
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Must be too complicated for him to understand that a lack of alignment within his party, as well as extreme differences between same-party candidates, will lead to this exact outcome.

Ranked-choice voting is the new "mail-in ballot" voting. Both are a fraud which should be avoided by those that don't understand either.
 

ichawkeye

HR Heisman
Gold Member
Jan 11, 2003
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Begich might have won straight up...probably would have. I'm not sure Palin could beat Peltola head-to-head. So Trump/Palin and the cult cost the GOP the seat for now. I'm good with that.

Yeah, if you dive into the numbers, there were enough voters with a first-choice Republican pick, that didn't offer a second-choice and this is what cost Palin the election. It will be interesting to see how the next election cycle in November will be managed by these candidates and voters.

I do believe this is a good early example of how rank-choice voting can settle into the most favorable candidate overall (from the viewpoint of those voters), versus voters battling each other's extreme candidates and just over half the voters ultimately being satisfied with the outcome.