I performed some analysis on the results of the Iowa-Iowa State game in the Ferentz era. I had some thoughts about what we've seen and wanted to see if the numbers backed it up. I'll share it here in case anyone else finds it interesting.
Analysis of the CyHawk game under Ferentz
- Thread starter Dauminator
- Start date
OK . . . I'll post the rest here since the tab key doesn't, you know, make tabs on this website.
My methodology, as such, was to take the simple facts of season win totals and CyHawk game result by season over the Ferentz era, and look at the data from every angle I could think of.
For all score fields, + indicates IA, -indicates ISU
Year......IA wins.....ISU wins.....Pt Margin
1999.........1...............4..................-7
2000.........3................9...............-10
2001.........7................7.................-3
2002........11................7................-5
2003........10................2................19
2004........10................7.................7
2005.........7................7...............-20
2006.........6................4................10
2007.........6................3................-2
2008.........9................2................12
2009.......11................7................32
2010.........8................5................28
2011.........7................6.................-3
2012.........4................6.................-3
2013.........8................3..................6
2014.........7................2.................-3
Average season win total w/ victory
IA.....8.857143
ISU...5.666667
Average season win total w/ loss
IA.....5.888889
ISU...4.285714
IA wins 3 more games in seasons with a victory than those with a loss. ISU margin is +1.4
season wins - record - average score margin - win pct - ave win margin - ave loss margin
IA result by record (ave is 7.2 w/season)
7 or -..............1W 8L.................-4.56...............0.111111.............10...................-6.375
8 or +.............6W 1L.................14.5.................0.857143............17.33..............-5
ISU result by record (ave is 5.1 w/season)
5 or -..............3W 5L.................7.875..............0.375...................-4.....................15
6 or +.............6W 2L................-0.625..............0.750...................-7.33................19.5
For IA, an above average year yields +.746 win pct, +19.06 score margin, +7.33 pts in wins, and +1.375 pts in losses
For ISU, an above average year yields +.375 win pct, -8.5 score margin, -3.33 pts in wins, and +4.5 pts in losses (good ISU teams lose by a wider margin than bad ones . . .)
Average result based on team's combined record
Red is 4 wins or fewer, white is 5-7 wins, Green is 8 wins or more
(I had a nice color coded chart but can't get it to copy in-or attach my file for some reason. Really not impressed with the writing interface here. I'll just summarize below)
CyHawk record by team by rating (and win pct)
IA red........0W 3L......0.000
IA white....2W 5L......0.286
IA green....5W 1L......0.833
ISU red......3W 4L.....0.429
ISU white...5W 3L.....0.625
ISU green...1W 0L.....1.00
ISU's success dependent on IA's record. Lopsided losses in IA green years, mixed results tending toward victory in other years.
Same as above, but with green showing 2+ wins above team's average, red 2+ below (adjusting rating of teams for overall quality of program)
Since IA ave wins is just above 7, red is 5-, green is 9+. ISU red is 3-, green is 7+.
IA red.......0W 3L.......0.000
IA white....3W 5L.......0.375
IA green...4W 1L.......0.800
ISU red......2W 3L.....0.400
ISU white..3W 2L......0.600
ISU green..4W 2L.....0.667
ISU marginal improvements as their overall record improves. IA's record improvement more dramatic.
In comparing raw quality vs adjusted quality, most win pcts close. IA white record goes slightly up, while ISU's green record drops dramatically (since ISU has only one raw green season)
Interesting to note that ISU's success is roughly equal whether average or good, and not much worse when poor.
Test of predictive power of result
Result..............count......IA wins.....ISU wins.....difference
ISU by 10+........2.............5...............8..................-3
ISU by 9-...........7.............6.1............5...................1.1
IA by 9-.............2.............9................5..................4
IA by 10+..........5.............8.8............4...................4.8
ISU record roughly the same, except cases of decisive victory, which yielded an average of 8 wins those two years.
IA record noticeably better in years of victory than in loss. Margin of victory not a good predictor.
Narrow ISU wins usually mean mediocre seasons for both teams.
Overall observations
Iowa's quality is the decisive factor in this series. Good Iowa teams almost always win. Average to poor rarely do. This isn't news, but now I've seen hard data to prove my biased eye isn't tainting my view.
Final conclusion
I hate Iowa State
My methodology, as such, was to take the simple facts of season win totals and CyHawk game result by season over the Ferentz era, and look at the data from every angle I could think of.
For all score fields, + indicates IA, -indicates ISU
Year......IA wins.....ISU wins.....Pt Margin
1999.........1...............4..................-7
2000.........3................9...............-10
2001.........7................7.................-3
2002........11................7................-5
2003........10................2................19
2004........10................7.................7
2005.........7................7...............-20
2006.........6................4................10
2007.........6................3................-2
2008.........9................2................12
2009.......11................7................32
2010.........8................5................28
2011.........7................6.................-3
2012.........4................6.................-3
2013.........8................3..................6
2014.........7................2.................-3
Average season win total w/ victory
IA.....8.857143
ISU...5.666667
Average season win total w/ loss
IA.....5.888889
ISU...4.285714
IA wins 3 more games in seasons with a victory than those with a loss. ISU margin is +1.4
season wins - record - average score margin - win pct - ave win margin - ave loss margin
IA result by record (ave is 7.2 w/season)
7 or -..............1W 8L.................-4.56...............0.111111.............10...................-6.375
8 or +.............6W 1L.................14.5.................0.857143............17.33..............-5
ISU result by record (ave is 5.1 w/season)
5 or -..............3W 5L.................7.875..............0.375...................-4.....................15
6 or +.............6W 2L................-0.625..............0.750...................-7.33................19.5
For IA, an above average year yields +.746 win pct, +19.06 score margin, +7.33 pts in wins, and +1.375 pts in losses
For ISU, an above average year yields +.375 win pct, -8.5 score margin, -3.33 pts in wins, and +4.5 pts in losses (good ISU teams lose by a wider margin than bad ones . . .)
Average result based on team's combined record
Red is 4 wins or fewer, white is 5-7 wins, Green is 8 wins or more
(I had a nice color coded chart but can't get it to copy in-or attach my file for some reason. Really not impressed with the writing interface here. I'll just summarize below)
CyHawk record by team by rating (and win pct)
IA red........0W 3L......0.000
IA white....2W 5L......0.286
IA green....5W 1L......0.833
ISU red......3W 4L.....0.429
ISU white...5W 3L.....0.625
ISU green...1W 0L.....1.00
ISU's success dependent on IA's record. Lopsided losses in IA green years, mixed results tending toward victory in other years.
Same as above, but with green showing 2+ wins above team's average, red 2+ below (adjusting rating of teams for overall quality of program)
Since IA ave wins is just above 7, red is 5-, green is 9+. ISU red is 3-, green is 7+.
IA red.......0W 3L.......0.000
IA white....3W 5L.......0.375
IA green...4W 1L.......0.800
ISU red......2W 3L.....0.400
ISU white..3W 2L......0.600
ISU green..4W 2L.....0.667
ISU marginal improvements as their overall record improves. IA's record improvement more dramatic.
In comparing raw quality vs adjusted quality, most win pcts close. IA white record goes slightly up, while ISU's green record drops dramatically (since ISU has only one raw green season)
Interesting to note that ISU's success is roughly equal whether average or good, and not much worse when poor.
Test of predictive power of result
Result..............count......IA wins.....ISU wins.....difference
ISU by 10+........2.............5...............8..................-3
ISU by 9-...........7.............6.1............5...................1.1
IA by 9-.............2.............9................5..................4
IA by 10+..........5.............8.8............4...................4.8
ISU record roughly the same, except cases of decisive victory, which yielded an average of 8 wins those two years.
IA record noticeably better in years of victory than in loss. Margin of victory not a good predictor.
Narrow ISU wins usually mean mediocre seasons for both teams.
Overall observations
Iowa's quality is the decisive factor in this series. Good Iowa teams almost always win. Average to poor rarely do. This isn't news, but now I've seen hard data to prove my biased eye isn't tainting my view.
Final conclusion
I hate Iowa State
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All you needed to do was look at the results from 1999 to 2014 to draw that conclusion. No further statistical analysis needed.
Basically, this.
What else could it turn into?? Seriously? Iowa State finished being ranked 120th out of 128 in the country last year. The year before they were 99th. Prior years were 71st, 71st and 82nd.
That is insanely horrible. It isn't even borderline FCS quality football, if they even deserve that title. I am Kirk Ferentz fan. But you cannot lose to teams so incredibly challenged.
How could anyone lose to such a dreadful program? Answer - a low ranking FCS school and the Hawks. Ouch.
Losing to such a poor program should be unacceptable to any Power 5 team.
Pt margin in 1999 should be -7. I hope that doesn't mess with your other calculations and conclusions.
That is a great way to sum up this series, as of late. Yep, ISU plays to win & Iowa plays to prove they are better (and unfortunately has failed more times than not). Great analysis!
Good catch!
That's just a typo on the message. It was correct in my spreadsheet, so the results are the same.
I agree, evilmonkey, this isn't news. But the hard data is even more startling than my perception was. 6-1 against ISU in 8+ win seasons. 1-8 the rest of the time. 1-8!!!
what's sad is that Iowa is 2-7 in games decided by 7 points or less in this series, Iowa State almost never blows Iowa out, if we just executed better in close games, we would easily win this series
I have a funny feeling that stat is going to be tested once again on Saturday. It's gonna come down to whether or not Iowa plays tight when the Cyclones make their move. For whatever reason, when Iowa State is able to keep it close, Iowa can't move the ball on offense, and can't get Iowa State off the field when they absolutely need to.
2001- Early 4th qtr FG proved to be enough as Iowa squandered several opportunities to score. Steen's fumble after an INT is the play everyone remembers however, Iowa did get the ball back again one final time before being picked off themselves.
2002- Giving up 29 unanswered after dominating the 1st half is ridiculous enough, but the play that stands out is the 3rd and long throw that Wallace made from the shadow of his own endzone. Ferentz even made a comment about it in his presser on Wednesday recalling some of the moments of this rivalry (he made the comment that as a coach you tend to remember the negative a bit more than the positive, albeit it was a little tongue-in-cheek).
2007- Iowa trailed 12-0 at half and then stormed back to within 12-10 in the 4th with a chance to take the lead only to have a low line-drive Austin Signor FG attempt get blocked, from 33-yds out no less after Iowa gained 21 yds on TEN freaking plays. Iowa is the only team in the nation that can make a 10-play drive feel like it literally went nowhere. And the reason why ISU couldn't do that is because they rarely even make it to 10.........
ISU's offense that would lead them to a solid 2-10 record that year went 3 and out and the Jake Christensen-led Hawks miraculously managed enough offense a second time around to try another field goal, which was good, and put Iowa ahead 13-12 with 3:33 to play. Now going back to what I said earlier about getting ISU off the field...Iowa didn't do that at all. The Cyclones took 3:31 of that remaining time off the clock in making their way down the field for the game-winning FG, moving 56 yds in just 7 play and only facing a 3rd down on their final play.
That would become a theme in future installments of close games in this series.
2011- This was probably the most "Iowa playing not to lose" type of game in this series among games where this was evident. The 2nd half proceeded as followed:
- Business as usual Iowa 3 and out to start the half
- ISU fumble
- Iowa starts at the 21, settles for FG on 4th and goal from the 2. Worth noting that tomorrow, Ferentz may go for it in that situation early in the 3rd, as he's been more prone to do as of late.
- After long kick return, ISU misses a field goal
- Iowa squanders another chance to put ISU out of reach and settles for a 50-yd Mike Meyer FG
- ISU then hits the big play and scores a couple plays later to take a 17-16 lead just like that.
- bau Iowa 3 and out
- ISU puts together long drive, misses FG again
- Iowa drives 80 yds and punches in the go-ahead score to go up 24-17 with 4:23 to play, again turning it over to their defense, like in 2007
- And like in 2007, ISU marches down and scores to tie the game after converting on FOUR 3rd downs, including a 3rd and 15 and a 3rd and 20, and a 4th and 1. The passing score being the first of two they would use to pick on Greg Castillo one on one.
- Iowa would then score on their first possession of OT and again put it on the defense to do something they weren't going to do.
- Again faced with 4th and the ballgame, Iowa State went back at Greg Castillo who lost his man in the corner of the endzone for the tying score and from there it was a formality.
- Both teams traded FGs but it was always gonna come back down to Iowa having the ball first, now in the third OT, if they didn't score a TD, that would be the game because the defense wasn't going to stop them. And of course, Iowa went 3 and out and settled for a field goal................bau.
2012- The exact opposite of the previous year's contest occurred in this game. 8 punts, an interception and 2 field goals are what Iowa's anemic 2012 offense mustered before their final two drive, which were a turnover on downs and an interception......
Iowa had a workman-like five 3 and outs in this game among their 8 punting possessions. If you think Iowa State was doing their part on offense to win the game, you'd have to be an Iowa State fan. Their 2nd half effort was punt, punt, fumble, punt, punt, interception, punt.
On Iowa's 2nd to last series, they picked off ISU at their own 49. 4 pass plays later, the Cyclones went back out and then 3 plays after that, punted back to Iowa.
However, this time, the Iowa offense would lose the game. After converting on a 4th and 3, Iowa worked it to the ISU 32 with just over a minute to play. A 49-yd field goal was certainly in Meyer's range and Iowa had time and downs to spare. Instead, James Vandenberg gave Jake Rudock a bad idea by throwing an ill-advised pass in the middle of the field that was tipped and intercepted, effectively ending the ugliest CyHawk game in the modern era in the most fittingly anti-climactic fashion.
2014- Basically the culmination of Iowa's frustrations over the course of the Ferentz era when facing the Cyclones. Build a 14-3 at half, do absolutely nothing offensively in the 2nd half. Iowa went 3 plays and an interception, 8 plays for 20 yds and a punt, 8 plays for 31 yds and a punt, and then on their last possession of the game they went 56 yds on 10 plays and settled for a field goal, leaving just over 4 minutes to play and once again putting the onus on the Iowa defense to make a stop. And as has been the case in this series when they needed to, they did not. ISU converted twice on 3rd down and then worked all but 2 seconds off the clock in 11 plays to kick the game-winning field goal. We also got the inexplicablely un-Kirk Ferentz-like icing the kicker incident that ended up giving ISU another shot after Cole Netten missed his first try.
Last year's game had all the making of a typical ISU victory in this series. Boring, ugly football. Turnovers helping Iowa State back in the game. One half of some semblance of offense, and another that makes you question whether you'll ever see Iowa score again in your lifetime. Iowa defense doing enough to keep them ahead or in the game, then the offense squandering opportunities, then the defense giving up a big play here or there and the dam breaks. Then of course, the late game situations in close contests. Settling for a field goal, check. Putting the defense in the precarious position of needing a stop or you lose, or are trailing late. Defense gives up multiple 3rd downs. Inexplicable coaching decision. Iowa State scores the necessary points to win the game. BAU
Let's hope that tomorrow continues this recent trend of 'less BAU is more'.....
How does rhoads keep his job and why don't they beg danny mac to come back? What a pathetic football existence.
I suppose one could translate that as meaning they are not good. And that we should not be losing to such an opponent. Just stating the obvious.
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