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Any One Else ready to sell all financial market assets?

Have considered it but am afraid to. Market timing is a loser in most all cases.

I understand, but timing the market after the longest bull run in history and after reckless policy reducing taxes while spending more and causing foreign trade issues is a recipe for a downturn. Not to mention Boomers who have or will start reallocating assets out of stocks.
 
I understand, but timing the market after the longest bull run in history and after reckless policy reducing taxes while spending more and causing foreign trade issues is a recipe for a downturn. Not to mention Boomers who have or will start reallocating assets out of stocks.

What is with the recent hate of the boomers? Not saying you do. It is just that I have noticed the recent focus on baby boomers across much of media. Did I miss a memo?
 
and short the hell out of this market?

I am close.

That's what some people were saying when the market hit 15,000. I personally started purchasing Corporate Bonds a couple of years ago.
 
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What is with the recent hate of the boomers? Not saying you do. It is just that I have noticed the recent focus on baby boomers across much of media. Did I miss a memo?

I don't have any hate for the boomers. It makes sense for them to get out of relatively risky stocks now that they are retiring. I think that puts heavy pressure on the market buyers. And at the risk of offending millenials, they are less likely to invest a lot in financial markets for many reasons. Supply and demand. This market has gone up enormously for the last decade. I could be wrong, but I don't see much more upside before a major correction.
 
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That's what some people were saying when the market hit 15,000. I personally started purchasing Corporate Bonds a couple of years ago.

So, now that the Dow is at 28,000, would it make it more or less likely that a market correction is coming? As my frame of reference for the market, I use the S&P 500, which is much broader than the Dow.
 
I don't have any hate for the boomers. It makes sense for them to get out of relatively risky stocks now that they are retiring. I think that puts heavy pressure on the market buyers. And at the risk of offending millenials, they are less likely to invest a lot in financial markets for many reasons. Supply and demand. This market has gone up enormously for the last decade. I could be wrong, but I don't see much more upside before a major correction.

I didn’t think you did. But the boomer phrase has appeared on here more than I ever remember.

I agree with the much more upside comment.
But I’m still nervous to move to cash. Every time I’ve ever tried to time anything related to money, I’m wrong.
 
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yeah I didn’t think you did. But the boomer phrase has appeared on here more than I ever remember.

I agree with the much more upside comment.
But I’m still nervous to move to cash. Everyone I’ve ever tried to time anything related to money I’m wrong

If you aren't near retirement and have a 20+ year time frame, I wouldn't worry about timing. Otherwise, don't be surprised if you lose 20% or more of your investments in the next few years.
 
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If you aren't near retirement and have a 20+ year time frame, I wouldn't worry about timing. Otherwise, don't be surprised if you lose 20% or more of your investments in the next few years.
Trying to time the market never works out well. Just reallocate. If you did this in the early 90’s you would be sorry.
 
I agree with the sentiment of your post, Gonolz, but the Boomers (and their financial advisors) should have already been reallocating as they go. There shouldn't be a massive one-time re-balance of portfolios. I think that fact slightly mitigates the reallocation risk you've cited.

But reversion to the mean is something that definitely concerns me. You don't just go up up up forever. That much has been proven irrefutably true.
 
Gonolz,

Don't listen to these fools. You've got a right to be concerned. I'll be happy to take a look at your position and tell you how much risk exposure you currently have. I'll just need you SS number, bank account info and the passwords to your investment accounts.
 
By short... what do you mean?

Selling everything and putting it somewhere safe? or are you going to get into the derivative markets and use call and put options??

Awful difficult to catch a falling knife.

You could hedge with an ETF like VXX to offset losses. This thing would probably triple if the market went down 20%. I've used these before with good results. I did find out last year that VXX is treated as a limited partnership after I received a form K-1 after I filed my taxes. So I had to file an amended return but that wasn't too bad. There are others that aren't like this though, maybe UVXY.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VXX...jdG9yIjowLjQ1LCJjaGFydE5hbWUiOiJjaGFydCJ9fX19

Edit: After checking, it was UVXY that got me the Sch K-1
 
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Rather than selling out, build up a side account and only use it to buy into the market when it crashes.
 
If you aren't near retirement and have a 20+ year time frame, I wouldn't worry about timing. Otherwise, don't be surprised if you lose 20% or more of your investments in the next few years.
If Sanders or Warren are elected president I would expect a 30-40% loss.
 
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I'm still 10 to maybe 15 years away from realistically having enough money saved up for a comfortable retirement. So, no... I'm not cashing out right now.

Remember, you don't lose anything until you actually sell. You still own the shares.
 
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There will definitely be a negative correction at some point in time, but there's so much cash on the sideline (both with institutional and individual investors) that has missed out on the run-up and the historically "safer" assets like bonds aren't quite the safety net they've been in the past (we've taken 3 to 4 years of performance and recognized it all this year), I can see folks start to pile into riskier investment like stocks (similarly with private equity).....trying to seek a decent return (consciously ignoring a lot of the risk). Demand for these investment products could very well cause a melt-up in the market. But there will be a downturn at some point, make no mistake.

I'm not trying to massively time the market, but have been re-allocating a bit here and there (from equities into cash or short-term govt. funds) over the last 3 or 4 years. I'm not planning on using my 401K money for a long time, so my appetite for risk is still pretty strong. If I were retiring and needed the money in the next 5-7 years, I would considering materially reducing the equity position of my portfolio.
 
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Most boomers haven’t saved enough, they can’t afford to pull their money out.

besides, when I retire my strategy will be to put 5 years of needed money into bonds, the rest let it keep riding.
 
Most boomers haven’t saved enough, they can’t afford to pull their money out.

besides, when I retire my strategy will be to put 5 years of needed money into bonds, the rest let it keep riding.


In this interest rate environment, I'd put it into cash or extremely low-duration bonds.
 
For those thinking that a major correction is due, can you explain why exactly you think this market is so overvalued and what you think a reasonable valuation should be?
 
So, now that the Dow is at 28,000, would it make it more or less likely that a market correction is coming? As my frame of reference for the market, I use the S&P 500, which is much broader than the Dow.

I attended an economic update conference a few weeks ago hosted by the Chief Investment Officer of a large regional bank. It is his opinion the next recession is at least two years out. Unemployment is at historic lows and 70% or the economy is dependent upon employment. Consumer confidence is also quite high as are personal savings rates. He thinks the economy will remain stable with approximately 2% growth in 2020. He also thought there could be a boost to the construction industry as millennials begin buying homes and getting out of apartments. I asked him what would make his ears perk up in terms of a downturn. He said (1) the stock market and if it starts to slip and (2) if unemployment starts to increase. Take it for what it’s worth.
 
For those thinking that a major correction is due, can you explain why exactly you think this market is so overvalued and what you think a reasonable valuation should be?
Nobody thinks it will keep going higher when their taxes go up. Unless you think people will spend more money when their checks are smaller.
 
and short the hell out of this market?

I am close.

I was thinking we were going to run up to Dow 32-34k if a trade deal with China got done however now I am not sure that will happen. First bc the employment numbers that just came out were ridiculous considering we are already at full employment so Trump thinks he has more negotiating power now and secondly bc the democrats will now want to keep this from happening and the impeachment stuff might keep it from happening bc China thinks they can just wait Trump's presidency out.

Considering we have even insanely great employment numbers, incomes are up, cash flows are strong AND interest rates are low there is plenty of gun powder to keep this run going. I also don't think we have hit market euphoria yet so there is still some run up to come.
 
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But reversion to the mean is something that definitely concerns me. You don't just go up up up forever. That much has been proven irrefutably true.

What do you mean? Lotta room for zeros on the dollar bill.

zimbabwe-100-trillion-dollar-banknote-2008-aa-series-new.jpg


If the Feds money printing just goes into asset prices it means we’re rich, bitch!
 
I don't have any hate for the boomers. It makes sense for them to get out of relatively risky stocks now that they are retiring. I think that puts heavy pressure on the market buyers. And at the risk of offending millenials, they are less likely to invest a lot in financial markets for many reasons. Supply and demand. This market has gone up enormously for the last decade. I could be wrong, but I don't see much more upside before a major correction.

This.

I put it all in frozen concentrated OJ. Got an inside tip that the crop report is going to be bad.

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I’m not a finance guy but have dabbled with some inverse ETFs. AMZA and SDS are two I have currently.
 
I agree that I think there's one more big jump in equities coming. If Trump continues to hover <40% approval, He's got to agree to some crappy trade deal to make one last push for reelection.

I expect the employment numbers will continue to be artificially inflated just like they were for 2018. Remember how the yearly numbers for 2018 were revised downward by 500,000 last year?
 
I’m not a finance guy but have dabbled with some inverse ETFs. AMZA and SDS are two I have currently.


Inverse ETF's are an absolutely fantastic way to lose money. You better time them right or you will lose your money. If this is just play money, then no big deal.

It doesn't look like AMZA is an inverse security. But I could be wrong. Looks more like a very very expensive (240bps annual charge) way to get exposure to MLPs vs. just getting AMLP.
 
I am 100% in stocks right now but I also have 29 more years until retirement. #superrisky
 
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