What record gets Iowa into the tournament? Who would be considered 'marquee' wins and how many of those does this Iowa team need?
Assuming Iowa begins B1G play 9-3, what needs to happen in B1G play to make the tournament?
- Thread starter libertyhawkeye
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10-8 gets us in no matter what.
The Big Ten will get at least six teams into the NCAA's. 10-8 puts us in that six.
Show me six other Big Ten teams that have done better than our 9-3 (expected) nonconference record?
So, 10-8 and it isn't even a question, we're in.
The Big Ten will get at least six teams into the NCAA's. 10-8 puts us in that six.
Show me six other Big Ten teams that have done better than our 9-3 (expected) nonconference record?
So, 10-8 and it isn't even a question, we're in.
The schedule is not exactly in our favor the first half of the season. Weather the storm until January 31 and make hay with Purdue, MSU, and MD in the rear view mirror. 3-5 first 8 games might be realistic, but should be able to go 7-3 / 6-4 in the next 10. 19 wins with their schedule should get them in.
I agree with all of the above but also think we can get to 20+ wins if they can finish out games. A win or two in the big ten tournament would help as well. This team can play with and beat anyone if shots are falling and they play smart and confident all 40 minutes. It should be an exciting few months.
If Iowa finishes the regular season with 19 wins, their RPI is expected to be 32. That's would be a strong resume, regardless of whether they win a game in the Big 10 tournament. Our expected SOS is #8 in the country. Thus, I think our magic number is 19.
Maybe, but I always worry about how many other 18-19 wins teams will be sitting on the buble in March - 20 wins would likely seal the deal in 2016.
I agree with you but the same could be said and was said last year... going to O$U to start the season on the road with a great win by 6...dang if we would have won by 1 point less it would have been added to help our dismal 5 point difference record. DeAngelo Russell was dynamite talent...didn't shoot very well (4-16) from the field.
Anyway at one point we were sitting at 6-4...lost to Minnesota at home & NW in Evanston...go figure. Based on some posts back then, I don't think anyone predicted a 6 game win streak to end the regular season. The best B1G W-L record for Iowa going back 9 years.
So if last season teaches us anything. You just don't know.
It should certainly have taught the guys predicting as few as six wins in the Big Ten that they haven't a clue. I've been thinking about the last several winners of the Big Ten (Regular season)
2001-02: Ohio State and Indiana at 11-4
2002-03. Wisconsin 12-4
2003-04. Illinois 13-3
2004-05. Illinois 15-1
2005-06. Ohio State 12-4
2006-07. Ohio State 15-1
2007-08. Wisconsin 16-2
2008-09. Michigan State 15-3
2009-10. Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan State 14-4
2010-11. Ohio State 16-2
2011-12. Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan 13-5
2012-13. Indiana 14-4
2013-14. Michigan 15-3
2014-15. Wisconsin 16-2
Look at Ohio State, six times in 15 years on top alone or with somebody else. But I also notice that teams having been caught cheating within my memory? Michigan, Illinois, Ohio State, Indiana.......is there a pattern here and what's wrong with Minnesota they cheat how come no Championships in the last fifteen years?
18 wins would still have us on the bubble, but then it would come down to "who" we've beaten. The SOS will certainly be there, but it's the (quality) wins that make the real difference, especially when it comes to seeding.
Obviously with 18 wins we would be hoping for at least one win in the BTT, but at worst I think we'd still be very much alive and in the conversation with a 9-9 B10 record and an 18-12 overall mark. It's not like it's 10-8 in conference or else no deal. But anything less than a .500 conference record would sink us.
Obviously with 18 wins we would be hoping for at least one win in the BTT, but at worst I think we'd still be very much alive and in the conversation with a 9-9 B10 record and an 18-12 overall mark. It's not like it's 10-8 in conference or else no deal. But anything less than a .500 conference record would sink us.
Bingo. Best to get to 10-8. Doesn't mean stranger things can't happen. Heck, we could win the Big Ten Tournament. But, let's just get to 10 wins plus the 9-3, and as soon as possible so the rest is talk of seeding.
10 wins for sure should be good. I am setting our sites higher though because we really should be favorites in 12 of the games games (@IU, @Maryland, 2x MSU, 2x Purdue).
If we can get our of our first half of the schedule with a decent record we should be fine. Think this team has the parts to get enough wins to make the dance.
^ ISU game is over. Move on.
20 wins total will have us in without sweating Selection Sunday. I'm thinking 10-8 with a win in the BTT should do the trick.
20 wins total will have us in without sweating Selection Sunday. I'm thinking 10-8 with a win in the BTT should do the trick.
I think a lot of people are pretty close. I can envision scenarios where 8-10 would be good enough (would need a bad loss or two to go with at least one Marquee win -- MSU, Purdue, or Maryland). We'd be squarely in Play-In/First Round consideration and may have head to head victories over other teams in that range (Marquette, Florida State, other B1G).
9-9 is likely good enough. B1G has a lot of equity this year with MSU, Purdue and Maryland. If they can all stay toward the top of the standings, I think the B1G gets at least 6 and possibly 7 depending on where other conferences fall, we just need to be in that range and can use our SOS to trump the comparison.
10-8 is in regardless of BTT (and with our history, I certainly hope we get to this scenario, as BTT hasn't been kind to us lately).
9-9 is likely good enough. B1G has a lot of equity this year with MSU, Purdue and Maryland. If they can all stay toward the top of the standings, I think the B1G gets at least 6 and possibly 7 depending on where other conferences fall, we just need to be in that range and can use our SOS to trump the comparison.
10-8 is in regardless of BTT (and with our history, I certainly hope we get to this scenario, as BTT hasn't been kind to us lately).
Anything less than 10 wins and this will be a bubble team imo. 9-9 would place us at 18-12 overall. Depending on our wins, I am not so certain that is considered a lock by any means.
Now, we have a couple things going for us:
- Marquette and WSU both look like they will be good wins, perhaps both RPI top 50 wins by the end of the season.
- There are a handful of BIG teams that at this point, appear to be worse than many anticipated. Those would include: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Indiana.
While that does not guarantee wins over those opponents, I think it does show a path where we can get to 10 or more wins.
Now, we have a couple things going for us:
- Marquette and WSU both look like they will be good wins, perhaps both RPI top 50 wins by the end of the season.
- There are a handful of BIG teams that at this point, appear to be worse than many anticipated. Those would include: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Indiana.
While that does not guarantee wins over those opponents, I think it does show a path where we can get to 10 or more wins.
It should certainly have taught the guys predicting as few as six wins in the Big Ten that they haven't a clue. I've been thinking about the last several winners of the Big Ten (Regular season)
2001-02: Ohio State and Indiana at 11-4
2002-03. Wisconsin 12-4
2003-04. Illinois 13-3
2004-05. Illinois 15-1
2005-06. Ohio State 12-4
2006-07. Ohio State 15-1
2007-08. Wisconsin 16-2
2008-09. Michigan State 15-3
2009-10. Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan State 14-4
2010-11. Ohio State 16-2
2011-12. Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan 13-5
2012-13. Indiana 14-4
2013-14. Michigan 15-3
2014-15. Wisconsin 16-2
Look at Ohio State, six times in 15 years on top alone or with somebody else. But I also notice that teams having been caught cheating within my memory? Michigan, Illinois, Ohio State, Indiana.......is there a pattern here and what's wrong with Minnesota they cheat how come no Championships in the last fifteen years?
Hey, leavin' the Illini and Badgers out of that epic four-way tie in 2002?? Lame!
Only 5 teams made it into the NCAA last year with less than 20 wins and four of those teams were 14 and 16 seeds and those spots are pretty much reserved for smaller school automatic bids. Hampton even got in with a 16-17 record but you know it had to be that they won their conference tournament.
I don't know why the NCAA doesn't put some of those smaller schools in with division II teams because the NCAA tournament is not about the 64 best of the 351 schools. If it was so Hampton would not have made it into the tournament. It doesn't seem fair when one team in their conference might have had a lot more wins in the regular season but didn't make the tournament because a team like Hampton won their conference tournament.
I don't know why the NCAA doesn't put some of those smaller schools in with division II teams because the NCAA tournament is not about the 64 best of the 351 schools. If it was so Hampton would not have made it into the tournament. It doesn't seem fair when one team in their conference might have had a lot more wins in the regular season but didn't make the tournament because a team like Hampton won their conference tournament.
This is why I'm a bit skeptical when some people think 9 BIG wins (which would put us at 18 overall assuming we win our final two non-con) would get us in the dance. Two years ago, we were 20-12 overall and ended up as the last team in a play-in game. I think 10 BIG wins are needed plus one in the BTT to ensure we go dancing. I am not saying less wins won't get us in, just that it is not a sure thing.
Yeah that's not even close! 10-8 does it.. Period (unless they drop one of their next 2)
Despite having a very ordinary record we have a very strong RPI. The fact that we have two cupcakes ahead is cancelled out by the fact that Florida State and Marquette will both start to ascend more quickly as Conference play begins
Well hell Doc, lets just stumble out of the gate and go 2-5. That will really help our tourney chances. SMH. You are really that lame to figure out what I am getting at?
The "cupcakes" on your schedule determines a very large part of your RPI, which is something I hate and I have voiced my displeasure with our schedule in previous seasons. Playing teams ranked 300 or worse absolutely tanks your RPI. In prior years, we have played anywhere from 4-6 of such teams per season. Hence, our RPI always lagged behind where most other metrics would rank us.
To me, I don't think there is any meaningful difference between the 200th ranked team and the 350th ranked team when you are an NCAA caliber team. I don't think Iowa has lost to a team ranked outside the top 200 in the past 4 or 5 years. All of those games should be automatic.
This year, we have a few cupcakes like we do every year, but only one of them is projected to be ranked 300 or worse. Teams like Gardner Webb (191), UMKC (170), Western Illinois (160), Drake (244), and Tennessee Tech (195) are perfect teams to play in between your bigger games. All of them should be wins, and none of them will hurt our RPI too much. In past years, by simply playing teams ranked 300 or worse, our RPI was dropped by about 10-15 spots.
We have a very strong schedule this year, and that's why this team should be safely in the tournament with 19 wins.
This is a very good post. I do agree that the 300+ RPI teams end up killing your RPI. The one year we had like four or five of them and I think was a big reason we missed out. I also think the Marquette and Wichita State wins are going to look very good come March. I expect both to be RPI top 50 wins and MU was a road win.
I didn't want to misunderstand since you're throwing out all kinds of nonsense on other threads.
So they have to beat msu in the first game of the the B1G season or they won't make the NCAA tourney?
That's just more nonsense.
Would it be a big help? Absolutely.
Does a loss eliminate their chances of making the tourney? Of course not. That's just stupid.
I guessing here but my first thought when I read we have to beat MSU was that doing so would set the right tone for the B1G conference. Getting that win would 1) boost team confidence. 2) put the league on notice Iowa is a force to reckon with. and, 3) get the MSU monkey off our back. It sounded like a plea , come on Hawks get we done.
Which makes it very frustrating and difficult to understand why Iowa for years had scheduled the RPI 250-347 teams. There is zero benefit to playing those games.
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