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B1G T-Rank Projections

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Looks like he thinks we'll have the worst defense in the conference, but an offense that's good enough to compensate most of the time. Sounds about right.
 
Right where we thought they would be last year... We just slightly improved defense, we should get there. That said, we better much improved defense!!! I believe that we will...
 
Am I looking at it correctly, we are predicted to win 15 games and go 10-10 in the BIG?

That's all the games we have scheduled so far.... We know 6 games and we play 20 B1G games. That'll change soon.

It will be interesting to see this when the rest of the schedule gets filled in.
 
I don't know what to think about this. Interesting, but WAY too many unknowns. Reminds me of Lang's famous quote (paraphrase), "Statistics are like a lamp post to a drunk." "More for support than illumination."
 
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Projecting D is next to impossible.

Remember how we all felt that once Jok left we'd improve greatly on the defensive end? All those freshman would be Sophs and they'd all be better because of it.

Until a culture of all out effort on the D end is EMBRACED by the players and coaching staff all the x's and o's do no good. Let's hope an attitude change is in progress.
 

I find a few of the projections baffling.

MSU #5 overall? Despite losing 2 lottery picks and replacing them with no immediate impact freshman or transfers? I mean they will be a good team, but more top 25 ish than top 5.

I'd also have Minnesota way ahead of Illinois right now. They have a lot more returning talent after the mass exodus from Champaign.
 
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I find a few of the projections baffling.

MSU #5 overall? Despite losing 2 lottery picks and replacing them with no immediate impact freshman or transfers? I mean they will be a good team, but more top 25 ish than top 5.

I'd also have Minnesota way ahead of Illinois right now. They have a lot more returning talent after the mass exodus from Champaign.

Agree with both. MSU is the best team in a down league — top 20 not top 5; and although Illinois has clearly upgraded their talent with Jones, Dosunmu, Griffin and Kane, they’re all freshmen. Illinois will get knocked around badly and shredded inside again this year and will likely finish dead nuts last behind Rutgers. Hahahahaha

Minnesota “way ahead?” Maybe ...but they’ll be way down too. Tallest midget contest.

This might be the year Fran takes coach of the year with a huge turnaround.

I also think it’s funny how hard the Wisconsin love is dying. That program is on a down cycle.
 
Definitely a lot of numbers based on past performance and assumptions that probably will have a positive correlation with future performance overall. Still, someone with a little knowledge just making his best guess might do a better job of predicting without all of the confusing statistics.
 
Minnesota “way ahead?” Maybe ...but they’ll be way down too. Tallest midget contest.

Minnesota will be way ahead of Illinois. Jordan Murphy is a beast. They will surround him with some reasonable talent and experience. I'm not saying they are a top 25 team, but they will probably end up on the NCAA bubble (though I'd guess more likely the wrong side of it). Illinois will probably be putrid.
 
Minnesota will be way ahead of Illinois. Jordan Murphy is a beast. They will surround him with some reasonable talent and experience. I'm not saying they are a top 25 team, but they will probably end up on the NCAA bubble (though I'd guess more likely the wrong side of it). Illinois will probably be putrid.


Murphy is indeed a beast. Don’t see them on the bubble though. NIT would be a very good year.

“Putrid”? Doubt it. Illinois will lose a lot of games but don’t kid yourself they have a lot of talent, it’s just too young to be consistent, and their schedule is stupid tough for the state of that program. They’ll probably look good for stretches. There’s a big difference between being a bad team and being a young team. Unfortunately, they’re ascending. Won’t see it till next year though.
 
Murphy is indeed a beast. Don’t see them on the bubble though. NIT would be a very good year.

“Putrid”? Doubt it. Illinois will lose a lot of games but don’t kid yourself they have a lot of talent, it’s just too young to be consistent, and their schedule is stupid tough for the state of that program. They’ll probably look good for stretches. There’s a big difference between being a bad team and being a young team. Unfortunately, they’re ascending. Won’t see it till next year though.

I imagine Illinois finishes with a conference record between 5-15 and 7-13. They are going to struggle. I like Trent Frazier's game, but there isn't enough talent around him to prevent defenses from smothering him. I think Minnesota on the other hand is around .500 in the league. They will finish ahead of Rutgers, Illinois, Northwestern, and maybe Penn State depending on how their backcourt ends up.
 
I imagine Illinois finishes with a conference record between 5-15 and 7-13. They are going to struggle. I like Trent Frazier's game, but there isn't enough talent around him to prevent defenses from smothering him. I think Minnesota on the other hand is around .500 in the league. They will finish ahead of Rutgers, Illinois, Northwestern, and maybe Penn State depending on how their backcourt ends up.


Minn won’t finish ahead of Penn St., imo.

Illinois has some really good talent around Frazier and Nichols it’s just too young. Ayo Dosunmu is legit as is Tevian Jones. I’ve actually watched Griffin in person here in NY. #2 player in the state. Very underrated shooter and defender who has played against top level talent. Will be really good, imo. Even Kane is underrated because he came out ahead of schedule. I also expect Williams to be much improved.

But.... if you’re counting on freshman, you’re f*cked, and Illinois is f*cked this year.

Program is likely on the upswing though, they’re are in good with Terrance Shannon, Khalil Whitney and EJ Liddell in the ‘19 class. Unfortunately, they’re building something there, imo.
 
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I think Iowa's record last year was a slightly skewed anomaly. In other words, they were probably better than their record.I think it's totally valid to assume they'll finish top 8 this year.
 
I think Iowa's record last year was a slightly skewed anomaly. In other words, they were probably better than their record.I think it's totally valid to assume they'll finish top 8 this year.

I may be a little more optimistic about them than most here since I'm not an Iowa fan and didn't have to suffer through all their games last year, but I kind of feel like they're a sleeping giant right now.

First of all, they had the 19th best KenPom offense despite a high number of turnovers. I think Iowa could reduce turnovers this season and become a top 10 offense since the roster is extremely talented from an offensive perspective with the likes of J Bo, Cook, Garza, Moss, etc.

The defense was terrible so that will need to improve dramatically. But teams did score more points per possession in conference play when Ellingson and Wagner were on the court than anyone else so you're losing your two worst defenders statistically.

There were 2 things I noticed when watching Iowa last season that I think contributed to such poor defense:

1. I think Fran plays way too many players. I understand Iowa plays at a faster pace so there's a need to play more players than a team like Wisconsin, who plays super slow, but you still can't really get away with playing 10+ players. Should just play his best 7-8 players in my opinion. Maybe slow the tempo down to accommodate this. Feel like the only teams who can get away with big rotations are teams that press alot or just pressure the ball constantly like Illinois did last season. Either way, they have to force turnovers to makeup for it.

2. I think he plays too many bigs together. You can do that if one of the bigs is a freak of nature on defense, like Jaren Jackson was for MSU, but playing multiple bigs who can't guard in space is just wrong in my opinion. Garza and Cook together are fine but when you start trying to sneak Nunge in as a small forward or Kriener and Pemsyll together, teams can exploit that with quicker guys on the perimeter or just get them guarding in ball screens and out in space.

But I really do expect improvement from Iowa. Played a lot of underclassmen last year. They'll have multiple upperclassmen now with another off-season and a rumored commitment to defense. Thought they ended the season on a high note at the B1G tournament beating up on Illinois and forcing national runner up Michigan into OT.
 
Agree with your analysis. They play fast and turned the ball over a lot. On the other end, they were low on steals and gave up the most assists in the league.

Two biggest difference between this team and prior teams is ole defense and not getting to the line. This team scores a ton without getting to the line like White,Jok etc did. More shots in play = more transition D required. More turnovers = more transition D. It's a bad combo.
 
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I may be a little more optimistic about them than most here since I'm not an Iowa fan and didn't have to suffer through all their games last year, but I kind of feel like they're a sleeping giant right now.

First of all, they had the 19th best KenPom offense despite a high number of turnovers. I think Iowa could reduce turnovers this season and become a top 10 offense since the roster is extremely talented from an offensive perspective with the likes of J Bo, Cook, Garza, Moss, etc.

The defense was terrible so that will need to improve dramatically. But teams did score more points per possession in conference play when Ellingson and Wagner were on the court than anyone else so you're losing your two worst defenders statistically.

There were 2 things I noticed when watching Iowa last season that I think contributed to such poor defense:

1. I think Fran plays way too many players. I understand Iowa plays at a faster pace so there's a need to play more players than a team like Wisconsin, who plays super slow, but you still can't really get away with playing 10+ players. Should just play his best 7-8 players in my opinion. Maybe slow the tempo down to accommodate this. Feel like the only teams who can get away with big rotations are teams that press alot or just pressure the ball constantly like Illinois did last season. Either way, they have to force turnovers to makeup for it.

2. I think he plays too many bigs together. You can do that if one of the bigs is a freak of nature on defense, like Jaren Jackson was for MSU, but playing multiple bigs who can't guard in space is just wrong in my opinion. Garza and Cook together are fine but when you start trying to sneak Nunge in as a small forward or Kriener and Pemsyll together, teams can exploit that with quicker guys on the perimeter or just get them guarding in ball screens and out in space.

But I really do expect improvement from Iowa. Played a lot of underclassmen last year. They'll have multiple upperclassmen now with another off-season and a rumored commitment to defense. Thought they ended the season on a high note at the B1G tournament beating up on Illinois and forcing national runner up Michigan into OT.

Remember, there was a reason Fran played so many bigs together last year.
 
I may be a little more optimistic about them than most here since I'm not an Iowa fan and didn't have to suffer through all their games last year, but I kind of feel like they're a sleeping giant right now.

First of all, they had the 19th best KenPom offense despite a high number of turnovers. I think Iowa could reduce turnovers this season and become a top 10 offense since the roster is extremely talented from an offensive perspective with the likes of J Bo, Cook, Garza, Moss, etc.

The defense was terrible so that will need to improve dramatically. But teams did score more points per possession in conference play when Ellingson and Wagner were on the court than anyone else so you're losing your two worst defenders statistically.

There were 2 things I noticed when watching Iowa last season that I think contributed to such poor defense:

1. I think Fran plays way too many players. I understand Iowa plays at a faster pace so there's a need to play more players than a team like Wisconsin, who plays super slow, but you still can't really get away with playing 10+ players. Should just play his best 7-8 players in my opinion. Maybe slow the tempo down to accommodate this. Feel like the only teams who can get away with big rotations are teams that press alot or just pressure the ball constantly like Illinois did last season. Either way, they have to force turnovers to makeup for it.

2. I think he plays too many bigs together. You can do that if one of the bigs is a freak of nature on defense, like Jaren Jackson was for MSU, but playing multiple bigs who can't guard in space is just wrong in my opinion. Garza and Cook together are fine but when you start trying to sneak Nunge in as a small forward or Kriener and Pemsyll together, teams can exploit that with quicker guys on the perimeter or just get them guarding in ball screens and out in space.

But I really do expect improvement from Iowa. Played a lot of underclassmen last year. They'll have multiple upperclassmen now with another off-season and a rumored commitment to defense. Thought they ended the season on a high note at the B1G tournament beating up on Illinois and forcing national runner up Michigan into OT.
Thoroughly stated.

However I'm not sure you appreciate the depths of putridity regarding their defense. They were bad the year prior. Then they got worse. Markedly worse. With essentially the same group of players. And they didn't lose a defensive stopper from the previous year. In fact, the opposite.
So now they have an even bigger hole to escape from. And they've added one wing that should help, but in no way can be expected to be a defensive savior.
Of course there's hope they can improve. It seems highly unlikely, though, that in one year they'll improve enough on D to translate to more than a 4 or 5 game improvement in B1G record.
 
I may be a little more optimistic about them than most here since I'm not an Iowa fan and didn't have to suffer through all their games last year, but I kind of feel like they're a sleeping giant right now.

First of all, they had the 19th best KenPom offense despite a high number of turnovers. I think Iowa could reduce turnovers this season and become a top 10 offense since the roster is extremely talented from an offensive perspective with the likes of J Bo, Cook, Garza, Moss, etc.

The defense was terrible so that will need to improve dramatically. But teams did score more points per possession in conference play when Ellingson and Wagner were on the court than anyone else so you're losing your two worst defenders statistically.

There were 2 things I noticed when watching Iowa last season that I think contributed to such poor defense:

1. I think Fran plays way too many players. I understand Iowa plays at a faster pace so there's a need to play more players than a team like Wisconsin, who plays super slow, but you still can't really get away with playing 10+ players. Should just play his best 7-8 players in my opinion. Maybe slow the tempo down to accommodate this. Feel like the only teams who can get away with big rotations are teams that press alot or just pressure the ball constantly like Illinois did last season. Either way, they have to force turnovers to makeup for it.

2. I think he plays too many bigs together. You can do that if one of the bigs is a freak of nature on defense, like Jaren Jackson was for MSU, but playing multiple bigs who can't guard in space is just wrong in my opinion. Garza and Cook together are fine but when you start trying to sneak Nunge in as a small forward or Kriener and Pemsyll together, teams can exploit that with quicker guys on the perimeter or just get them guarding in ball screens and out in space.

But I really do expect improvement from Iowa. Played a lot of underclassmen last year. They'll have multiple upperclassmen now with another off-season and a rumored commitment to defense. Thought they ended the season on a high note at the B1G tournament beating up on Illinois and forcing national runner up Michigan into OT.
Good post. I think the addition of Joe W at the 3, a healthy CMc, a healthier JBo, and more experience overall should help. Last year, we just didn't have enough perimeter players. Fran needs to figure out who will play and who will have to usually sit in the front court.
 
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I may be a little more optimistic about them than most here since I'm not an Iowa fan and didn't have to suffer through all their games last year, but I kind of feel like they're a sleeping giant right now.

First of all, they had the 19th best KenPom offense despite a high number of turnovers. I think Iowa could reduce turnovers this season and become a top 10 offense since the roster is extremely talented from an offensive perspective with the likes of J Bo, Cook, Garza, Moss, etc.

The defense was terrible so that will need to improve dramatically. But teams did score more points per possession in conference play when Ellingson and Wagner were on the court than anyone else so you're losing your two worst defenders statistically.

There were 2 things I noticed when watching Iowa last season that I think contributed to such poor defense:

1. I think Fran plays way too many players. I understand Iowa plays at a faster pace so there's a need to play more players than a team like Wisconsin, who plays super slow, but you still can't really get away with playing 10+ players. Should just play his best 7-8 players in my opinion. Maybe slow the tempo down to accommodate this. Feel like the only teams who can get away with big rotations are teams that press alot or just pressure the ball constantly like Illinois did last season. Either way, they have to force turnovers to makeup for it.

2. I think he plays too many bigs together. You can do that if one of the bigs is a freak of nature on defense, like Jaren Jackson was for MSU, but playing multiple bigs who can't guard in space is just wrong in my opinion. Garza and Cook together are fine but when you start trying to sneak Nunge in as a small forward or Kriener and Pemsyll together, teams can exploit that with quicker guys on the perimeter or just get them guarding in ball screens and out in space.

But I really do expect improvement from Iowa. Played a lot of underclassmen last year. They'll have multiple upperclassmen now with another off-season and a rumored commitment to defense. Thought they ended the season on a high note at the B1G tournament beating up on Illinois and forcing national runner up Michigan into OT.

VERY strong analysis, thank you.
 
For those thinking we need to play a few more players than Wisconsin because of our pace, remember back to 1970 where we played 6 players probably over 85-90% of the time. All we did was score 100 ppg with no 3 pt shot. I think these young guys can play 30 minutes a game if it is properly distributed.
 
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Lot of 10-10 teams. A 2 game swing (2 is a lot) means a lot in that middle of the pack means as good as 3rd or 4th or a bent neck looking up in the standings.
 
I may be a little more optimistic about them than most here since I'm not an Iowa fan and didn't have to suffer through all their games last year, but I kind of feel like they're a sleeping giant right now.

First of all, they had the 19th best KenPom offense despite a high number of turnovers. I think Iowa could reduce turnovers this season and become a top 10 offense since the roster is extremely talented from an offensive perspective with the likes of J Bo, Cook, Garza, Moss, etc.

The defense was terrible so that will need to improve dramatically. But teams did score more points per possession in conference play when Ellingson and Wagner were on the court than anyone else so you're losing your two worst defenders statistically.

There were 2 things I noticed when watching Iowa last season that I think contributed to such poor defense:

1. I think Fran plays way too many players. I understand Iowa plays at a faster pace so there's a need to play more players than a team like Wisconsin, who plays super slow, but you still can't really get away with playing 10+ players. Should just play his best 7-8 players in my opinion. Maybe slow the tempo down to accommodate this. Feel like the only teams who can get away with big rotations are teams that press alot or just pressure the ball constantly like Illinois did last season. Either way, they have to force turnovers to makeup for it.

2. I think he plays too many bigs together. You can do that if one of the bigs is a freak of nature on defense, like Jaren Jackson was for MSU, but playing multiple bigs who can't guard in space is just wrong in my opinion. Garza and Cook together are fine but when you start trying to sneak Nunge in as a small forward or Kriener and Pemsyll together, teams can exploit that with quicker guys on the perimeter or just get them guarding in ball screens and out in space.

But I really do expect improvement from Iowa. Played a lot of underclassmen last year. They'll have multiple upperclassmen now with another off-season and a rumored commitment to defense. Thought they ended the season on a high note at the B1G tournament beating up on Illinois and forcing national runner up Michigan into OT.


Nice analysis.

I honestly think Fran could take coach of the year honors this season with a big turnaround.
 
I may be a little more optimistic about them than most here since I'm not an Iowa fan and didn't have to suffer through all their games last year, but I kind of feel like they're a sleeping giant right now.

First of all, they had the 19th best KenPom offense despite a high number of turnovers. I think Iowa could reduce turnovers this season and become a top 10 offense since the roster is extremely talented from an offensive perspective with the likes of J Bo, Cook, Garza, Moss, etc.

The defense was terrible so that will need to improve dramatically. But teams did score more points per possession in conference play when Ellingson and Wagner were on the court than anyone else so you're losing your two worst defenders statistically.

There were 2 things I noticed when watching Iowa last season that I think contributed to such poor defense:

1. I think Fran plays way too many players. I understand Iowa plays at a faster pace so there's a need to play more players than a team like Wisconsin, who plays super slow, but you still can't really get away with playing 10+ players. Should just play his best 7-8 players in my opinion. Maybe slow the tempo down to accommodate this. Feel like the only teams who can get away with big rotations are teams that press alot or just pressure the ball constantly like Illinois did last season. Either way, they have to force turnovers to makeup for it.

2. I think he plays too many bigs together. You can do that if one of the bigs is a freak of nature on defense, like Jaren Jackson was for MSU, but playing multiple bigs who can't guard in space is just wrong in my opinion. Garza and Cook together are fine but when you start trying to sneak Nunge in as a small forward or Kriener and Pemsyll together, teams can exploit that with quicker guys on the perimeter or just get them guarding in ball screens and out in space.

But I really do expect improvement from Iowa. Played a lot of underclassmen last year. They'll have multiple upperclassmen now with another off-season and a rumored commitment to defense. Thought they ended the season on a high note at the B1G tournament beating up on Illinois and forcing national runner up Michigan into OT.

Nicely done, but you kind of lost me at "sleeping giant".

Fran isn't going change his rotations very much, if at all. And, although it's almost impossible to be a worse at defense than last year, I have a hard time imagining a big improvement. Iowa simply doesn't have ANY good defensive players.

I was happy and proud of the way the Hawks finished the season when it would have been easy to mail it in. But Michigan could not have played any worse and still managed to beat the Hawks.

Experience, maturity, leadership - these were missing last year and it is my hope that those will be the primary factors in their improvement.
 
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