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Badgers Breaking Bigly for Biden?

Honestly, I hate to say it, but that was my first thought when I heard the game was canceled. Well, there's the final nail in Trump's coffin in Wisconsin.

That poll was conducted before that was public. +17 seems a bit high to me but having the Wisconsin health care system on the verge of collapse coupled with Wisconsin's Big 10 championship chances likely being ruined by the virus while at the same time the President declares victory over it isn't going to sit well with them.
 
Why on earth would old people be hard to reach for polls, during a pandemic that disproportionally affects them no less? It's an exciting day for my parents these days when a package comes in the mail.

Not to mention that older people are breaking for Biden. They don't like people (like Trump) threatening social security and medicare.
 
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I think Del is good people. Just a little politically misguided. 🙂

I doubt that. Unless my memory is way off, he's a poster who admits to leaning racist (not a full one) and elaborated about his fights with blacks as a youth.

I try to remind myself that I can only read what someone posts, and that there's probably decency away from the keyboard that doesn't wind up here. But Del strikes me as a true deplorable.
 
You will crap yourself when Trump wins in a landslide.

Are you sure it won't be the exact opposite and a bloodbath for the Democrats?
District polling is showing it worse than national polling for Republicans. Its possible the GOP could retain the White House. But the Senate and especially the House will go Blue.
 
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Highly respected Marquette University Law School poll has it much closer, although Trump is stuck in the low 40's, bad place for the incumbent.
 
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Highly respected Marquette University Law School poll has it much closer, although Trump is stuck in the low 40's, bad place for the incumbent.


This just makes sense. I know the Trump fans don't understand, but he hasn't done anything to expand his base. He has certainly done plenty to lose the people who thought he represented good change.

Now it is just a matter of Biden focusing on the specific states Trump barely won and pulling in the right population of people who no longer buy what Trump is selling. I'd expect he will lose by more than the 3M popular vote, but not sure how much more. I don't think he flips many if any states red, and will lose a couple to the Dems.
 
FWIW--Trafalgar group poll, I hope like hell I'm laughing at the Trafalgar Group by this time next Wednesday.
 
FWIW--Trafalgar group poll, I hope like hell I'm laughing at the Trafalgar Group by this time next Wednesday.
This is the firm that missed their home state’s gubernatorial race by 11 points in 2018.


Take a look at the polling in Georgia’s gubernatorial election in 2018. Other than a Trafalgar Group survey that put Brian Kemp up by twelve points, every other poll in the autumn pointed to a close poll — either Kemp up by a few points, Stacey Abrams up by one or two points, or a tie. Kemp won by 1.4 percentage points.
 
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Why on earth would old people be hard to reach for polls, during a pandemic that disproportionally affects them no less? It's an exciting day for my parents these days when a package comes in the mail.
Older. Lots of farmers, if you have not travelled much in rural Wisconsin, they do not like to talk much to people they don't know.
 
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The early turnout is already happening. Heavily favoring Democrats by all reports. The need for heavy Election Day voting lies with the GOP.

I suspect there will be lots of Republicans watching the news and saying... "Why bother"?
Republicans vote no matter. It’s low income and college age dems that are the ones at risk of fair weather turnout. IMO.
 
Biden's trip to Georgia on Tuesday is telling. I'd bet good $$$ that their internal polling is pretty positive and the Dems see a very real chance of flipping at least one, if not both, Senate seats in the State.
Or their internals have it a close race for president.
 
This was true in 2016. Give some credit to Trafalgar.

But every polling house worth their salt has changed their methodology to do what Trafalgar did in ‘16. They have shifted their demographics to find the “hidden” Trump voters (less-educated whites) instead of aligning their panels to exact U.S. demographics and political party representation.

If anything, these nuances are now underestimating the “sick-of-this-sh*t”voter. Those folks are turning out in droves. It’s going to get ugly for the GOP.
You’re forgetting about the black and Hispanic gains it seems Trump has made.
 
They also ain't too keen on "Trade Wars" that have gutted their dairy markets.
Western Iowa is painted in Trump signs. Farmers value liberty, gun rights, and religious freedom far more than you’d think. Even perhaps over financial self interest. And they don’t like to be lectured to.
 
Not to mention that older people are breaking for Biden. They don't like people (like Trump) threatening social security and medicare.
Except he isn’t. But that lie gets trotted out every year. Really pathetic if you ask me.
 
Western Iowa is painted in Trump signs. Farmers value liberty, gun rights, and religious freedom far more than you’d think. Even perhaps over financial self interest. And they don’t like to be lectured to.

Well, they also like their government hand outs after Trump destroyed their market to sell their grain.
 
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This is approaching "Tsunami" territory. Every tossup/battleground" State voted for Trump in 2016 and is either "lean Dem" or close to it.

This is a disaster for down ticket Repubbers.

Well, all of those states were leaning Dem last time, as well. The margin of error in individual states is large.

And Florida is moving the wrong direction lately. Biden's lead is all but gone.
 
You will crap yourself when Trump wins in a landslide.

Are you sure it won't be the exact opposite and a bloodbath for the Democrats?

Trump could win the electoral college. But he will lose the popular vote by several million. So it would be hard to call it a landslide.
 
When your entire state is inundated with Covid, and the President is going on record saying "the pandemic is over".......something's finally gonna click for people.
We had a note circulating from the head of infectious disease at UNMC begging people to take Covid seriously by using mitigation and not gathering with large groups of friends and family. Then the total cluster that happened here Tuesday night...the night before the game is called. I doubt it changes any votes, but the optics of the timing for a super-spreader event was horrible.
 
Well, all of those states were leaning Dem last time, as well. The margin of error in individual states is large.

And Florida is moving the wrong direction lately. Biden's lead is all but gone.
Except we don't know how pollsters are gathering info. If you tell them you've already voted, they might not count you. Too many variables.

Biden has lots of ways to win this.

Edit:...Marist showing Biden +4 this morning.
 
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Why on earth would old people be hard to reach for polls, during a pandemic that disproportionally affects them no less? It's an exciting day for my parents these days when a package comes in the mail.
And I wonder why older Wisconsinites would vote Trump?
 
Western Iowa is painted in Trump signs. Farmers value liberty, gun rights, and religious freedom far more than you’d think. Even perhaps over financial self interest. And they don’t like to be lectured to.

....and they're just gullible as F***.
 
That poll was conducted before that was public. +17 seems a bit high to me but having the Wisconsin health care system on the verge of collapse coupled with Wisconsin's Big 10 championship chances likely being ruined by the virus while at the same time the President declares victory over it isn't going to sit well with them.

You assume Wisconsin football getting shut down is going to be seen as Trump's fault. I think many will assume it's the stupid liberal/weak/weenie B1G policies that have shut it down and many, many people are tired of this Corona sh*t and want things to start opening up like Trump does.
 
You assume Wisconsin football getting shut down is going to be seen as Trump's fault. I think many will assume it's the stupid liberal/weak/weenie B1G policies that have shut it down and many, many people are tired of this Corona sh*t and want things to start opening up like Trump does.
Who doesn’t want things “ opened up”stanzi? We all do. The question is just how prudent is it to do so? At what price? Many, many feel the price is too steep at the moment. B10 did what it needed to do to be safe. Of course it is not universally popular. But, in their eyes, they are acting prudently.
The “shutting down” of Wisky football is just another reminder of the reality of the virus.
 
This was true in 2016. Give some credit to Trafalgar.

But every polling house worth their salt has changed their methodology to do what Trafalgar did in ‘16. They have shifted their demographics to find the “hidden” Trump voters (less-educated whites) instead of aligning their panels to exact U.S. demographics and political party representation.

If anything, these nuances are now underestimating the “sick-of-this-sh*t”voter. Those folks are turning out in droves. It’s going to get ugly for the GOP.
There is much more to what Trafalgar group did in 2016 than that. If you're interested, Steve Deace interviewed Robert Cahaly on his podcast a couple of weeks ago. Even if you don't like Deace's politics, you would find that interview interesting.

I am not predicting a Trump win, but it is much closer than what most polls are indicating, and I would not at all be surprised if Trump won his bid for re-election. If he does win a second term, Democrats have no one to blame but themselves for opposing him with HRC and JB. It should have been an easy win for Democrats in 2016 and again in 2020.
 
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You assume Wisconsin football getting shut down is going to be seen as Trump's fault. I think many will assume it's the stupid liberal/weak/weenie B1G policies that have shut it down and many, many people are tired of this Corona sh*t and want things to start opening up like Trump does.

The polling disagrees with you. So does the science. Almost 230,000 dead and counting. You can't ignore that away.

It also doesn't help that every time the Wisconsin Governor tries to take steps to control the virus the Republican legislature steps in to sue and the Supreme Court backs them. Evidently, the Wisconsin GOP is perfectly fine with killing people. To be fair, Wisconsonites voted those idiots into office in the first place.
 
There's still a ways to go before a winner can be announced, but what I warned you about has definitely been proven true. Many polls overemphasized support for Biden. Whether that's simply because of bad methodology or other more nefarious reasons, I'm not sure, but the science of polling, outside of a few, is no longer particularly reliable.
 
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I doubt that. Unless my memory is way off, he's a poster who admits to leaning racist (not a full one) and elaborated about his fights with blacks as a youth.

I try to remind myself that I can only read what someone posts, and that there's probably decency away from the keyboard that doesn't wind up here. But Del strikes me as a true deplorable.
Never picked a fight in my life. Those all came to me. Ask QC his attitude towards minorities today. Life has a way of shaping attitudes.

BTW, not racist at all, I do my best to judge every person on their merits at the moment. At times I really struggle with it though, and sometimes am quick to judge. At least I recognize my flaws.

BTW, I am l looking drinking that beer with ya Torbee.
 
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