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Based on all the excitement and developments and announcements leading up to and now around Spring Practice........

It would be extremely shocking for Iowa to post its worst record since 2016, especially since we’ve strung three top 30 recruiting classes together for the first time in the KF era.

But I’m sure the crybaby sky is falling crowd here thinks 4 wins is the ceiling or something equally stupid.
I do believe that many fans aren't necessarily accounting for how "young/inexperienced" the Hawks were at a lot of key positions last year.

Getting better play at WR ... better consistency from the OL ... collapsing the pocket more quickly by the DL ... those are all factors that could make an enormous difference for the coming season.
 
How good we can be is up to what they can muster to be better on offense. There is a path there, where if Labas comes through, the OL gets dramatically better with experience and position shifts, along with finding a dominant RB (a lot to ask, for sure) this team’s ceiling could be playoffs even with the schedule. Realistically we are probably at least a year away on that side of the ball.

Hopefully I’m wrong. I would say 7-5 or 8-4 is a good bet for the season, with equal risk to the up or downside. I think this defense is going to be really good, and we all know how good the punter is. I think the offense will improve but probably won’t be a huge improvement
 
How good we can be is up to what they can muster to be better on offense. There is a path there, where if Labas comes through, the OL gets dramatically better with experience and position shifts, along with finding a dominant RB (a lot to ask, for sure) this team’s ceiling could be playoffs even with the schedule. Realistically we are probably at least a year away on that side of the ball.

Hopefully I’m wrong. I would say 7-5 or 8-4 is a good bet for the season, with equal risk to the up or downside. I think this defense is going to be really good, and we all know how good the punter is. I think the offense will improve but probably won’t be a huge improvement

So the team will be as good as or better than last year but will lose more games?
 
I get that you hate Kirk Ferentz (I have a well-established history of saying that on this very board , yes......) and can’t fathom ever winning another game again (That would be extremely shocking..........see what I did there? ;)), but we’ve significantly raised our game since 8 wins was the ceiling. (On one side of the ball, perhaps......)

Now you make your stupid joke about how bad we supposedly are that everyone can see coming a mile away.
Maybe I will.......maybe I won't.......


Maybe f*** Wisconsin.
 
Yes

Iowa had a “plus, plus” schedule last year which they largely maximized. This year we have a “minus” schedule. This team will have similar or better predictive metrics on platforms like SP+ and FPI.
Agree. Indiana ended up being truly terrible last year, and Maryland was its usual self of being terrible against good teams. Good on the Hawks for obliterating both teams, that what you need to do against terrible teams. But replacing Penn State, Maryland, Indiana with Michigan, OSU, and at Rutgers is a big difference. To your point, Iowa could have a better team by the advanced metrics and a worse record in 22 than in 21.

There are question marks for Iowa, just like any team. But a lot of good players with some experience, especially on D. DL has legitimately 6-7 returning guys who played at least at a good level, 3 good LB's, lost good players in the secondary but in Harris, Moss and Merriweather a good core with loads of athletes with good speed/size mix. Offense I have more questions, just like everyone does.
 
Yes

Iowa had a “plus, plus” schedule last year which they largely maximized. This year we have a “minus” schedule. This team will have similar or better predictive metrics on platforms like SP+ and FPI.
Crossovers are tougher yes, but most of our trophy games are at home this year, so to some extent I feel like it balances out. Idk that anyone in our division has gotten appreciably better either.
 
don't forget that we lost that game. goodson woulda coulda broken one of the many 8-10 yard williamses runs into something much much longer and generated at least 1 more FG or TD. imo tyler was the best rb at iowa after greene -- i certainly do hope 2xwilliams end up eclipsing him but it's too early to declare them an upgrade.
Goodson was a solid home run threat, but record TFL's were a thorn in our side all season and killed many drives before they got going. Too much dancing looking for the home run instead of taking the single made him a bit of a liability last year (IMO).
 
Goodson was a solid home run threat, but record TFL's were a thorn in our side all season and killed many drives before they got going. Too much dancing looking for the home run instead of taking the single made him a bit of a liability last year (IMO).
Goodson put us behind the chains more consistently than any other player/player group. Add in his less than admirable mirage pass blocking and he single handedly killed many series. Occasional home run yes but not worth the collateral damage.
 
Barring injuries, I usually look at 8-4 as the floor most years. Tough crossover games this year, but the balance of our trophy games being at home balances that out to some extent. Key will be improvement at the oline and QB positions. Feel good about the bulk of the depth chart currently.
I know that recency bias is a real thing but prior to the 18 season Iowa had lost 5 or more games in 10 of 13 seasons and since the 18 season started the Hawks have very conveniently only played Ohio St or Mich in the regular season ONCE. I'll be interested to see how they fare playing a real schedule this season. The bten west was the best thing to happen to Kirk's career since coming to Iowa, he just wouldn't be perceived the same if he had been put in the east
 
Goodson put us behind the chains more consistently than any other player/player group. Add in his less than admirable mirage pass blocking and he single handedly killed many series. Occasional home run yes but not worth the collateral damage.
Goodson danced a little but the shitty online play is what screwed us besides shitty qb play. But go team Ferentz offense!
 
I know that recency bias is a real thing but prior to the 18 season Iowa had lost 5 or more games in 10 of 13 seasons and since the 18 season started the Hawks have very conveniently only played Ohio St or Mich in the regular season ONCE. I'll be interested to see how they fare playing a real schedule this season. The bten west was the best thing to happen to Kirk's career since coming to Iowa, he just wouldn't be perceived the same if he had been put in the east

Sure but you can probably say that for anyone who’s been in the west, or schools like Rutgers or Maryland who have to try and build a program while playing that gauntlet every year.

Most of those seasons you mentioned also include bowl losses as well, I think going back to 2006 we’ve only won fewer than 8 games on I believe 3 or 4 occasions. And arguably we are recruiting as well the past few years as at any point in the Ferentz era, especially from a sustained standpoint.

Bottom line k think next year is simple. Improve at quarterback and I think returning to Indy is on the table. Stay the same and I think that 8 win mark is more likely. And obviously health is always the random factor you can’t plan for.
 
I know that recency bias is a real thing but prior to the 18 season Iowa had lost 5 or more games in 10 of 13 seasons and since the 18 season started the Hawks have very conveniently only played Ohio St or Mich in the regular season ONCE. I'll be interested to see how they fare playing a real schedule this season. The bten west was the best thing to happen to Kirk's career since coming to Iowa, he just wouldn't be perceived the same if he had been put in the east
Citing losses instead of wins is misleading due to post season losses. Also, 13 seasons is an interesting choice for a set of stats. Iowa has won 8 or more 13 of the last 20 seasons with 2020 being one with less than 8 wins but only playing 8 games that year.
 
Record last 20 years...
174-91 (.66 win percentage)
That averages out to about an 8-4 season.
KF is definitely in his last years coaching? How many left? IDK, but he's coached more years than he has left. This is a genuine question: Do coaches at the end of their career typically have a better or worse record towards the end?
 
Record last 20 years...
174-91 (.66 win percentage)
That averages out to about an 8-4 season.
KF is definitely in his last years coaching? How many left? IDK, but he's coached more years than he has left. This is a genuine question: Do coaches at the end of their career typically have a better or worse record towards the end?
Always depends on the coach and their situation, tho certainly the basic trend might be struggle towards the end. I would argue tho Iowa is recruiting as well as they ever have under Kirk outside of the ‘06 class currently, trending upwards in general since the Epenesa class.
 
Always depends on the coach and their situation, tho certainly the basic trend might be struggle towards the end. I would argue tho Iowa is recruiting as well as they ever have under Kirk outside of the ‘06 class currently, trending upwards in general since the Epenesa class.
Winning % last 5 years has been slightly above .70 so your theory has some weight to it.
 
truthfully, the case can be made that iowa will field a shell of an offense without linderbaum and goodson who were the two lone bright spots on O. a man with 50 years of accumulated qb acumen was replaced with what is best described as a brian ferentz. iowa will have the least imposing OL in the b1g blocking for the least fast twitch endowed qb in the ncaa. on D, iowa's best player will be a white CB making a comeback from knee injury. on schedule front- michigan, osu, and wisc are only tip of the iceberg; iowa will also have to contend with an ascendant rutgers, fiendishly formidable bielema, a guaranteed loss to purdue, and a massive influx of highly rated talent into nebraska. games against mn and nw (assuming that fitz runs out his petras same as us) are at best coin toss. isu under campbell will be ready for us. nevada and sdsu become must wins.

between now and start of the season, i hope such realistic posts keep expectations grounded at realistic levels.
Jees, you're a real ray of sunshine aren't you? So basically everyone we'll play will be better and we're going to suck even though we have the highest number of returning starters in the west if not the BIG? I think I'll stand opposed to that. Our defense will be what it always is, and frankly I think we'll be even better then last year with another year of development by a VERY young DL and a very solid group in the middle. Even without TL, I think the OL as a UNIT will be improved over last year. I think as the year goes on we'll see some new stud in the group, maybe Stephens, Davidkov, Jones or Volk. I also see Colby eventually sliding out to right tackle. As for Goodson's loss he gave us a few big plays, but I think the run game will more consistent in picking up those third and two's with the Williams boys running the ball. I also think we'll see a progression from Johnson, Bruce, and Jones at WR. We'll see what we get from SP, AP or even Labas at QB, but I find it hard to believe it will be worse then last year. Regardless of their level of play, I think switching back and forth because of the injuries was an issue with the offensive consistency. I do think based on a more consistent run game we'll be at least somewhat better on offense. We have a BIG plus in a top notch punter which is always a need with a KF team. If any one of the three kickers on board handles his business, ( I expect the freshman Stevens, who is already in practice to win the job), we should be fine there as well. Looks like a 9-3 to 10-2 team to me. Beat wisconsin and we'll be in Indy again....
 
Agree. Indiana ended up being truly terrible last year, and Maryland was its usual self of being terrible against good teams. Good on the Hawks for obliterating both teams, that what you need to do against terrible teams. But replacing Penn State, Maryland, Indiana with Michigan, OSU, and at Rutgers is a big difference. To your point, Iowa could have a better team by the advanced metrics and a worse record in 22 than in 21.
I think that folks have to be careful concerning declarations about Indiana last year.

We got into the head of Penix ... and got them out of sync from the outset. However, their D did the best they could in order to try to keep it a game.

2 games later ... Indiana was in a position where minus a completely GAME-CHANGING targeting penalty by their top LB ... the woulda/coulda/shoulda beat Cincinnati (a team that went on to go to the play-offs).

When the Hawks faced IU ... they still had a pulse. IU's roster went on to get absolutely obliterated by injuries. Furthermore, given that they had so many mercenary transfer-portal players ... when the losses pile on, having mercenaries doesn't exactly help locker-room chemistry and cohesiveness.

Similarly, the Hawks played Penn State when perfection was on the line for PSU. Quite a salty defense ... particularly stout in the red-zone. PSU was no joke in '21 ... they lost to Illinois largely because the Hawks had injured Clifford. They lost to Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State by a grand-total of 16 points! Late in the game ... they were in a position where the arguably should have beaten Michigan.

Head-to-head Maryland plastered Rutgers ... so the trade-off from '21 to '22 of replacing Maryland with Rutgers isn't the biggest deal.

Replacing the '21 PSU team (at that juncture of the season) with the '22 Michigan squad ... I'd argue that the difference there is rather moot.

The PRIMARY difference is that Ohio State is the closest thing to a sure-loss on the schedule. That's something that we didn't have on our schedule last year. Of course, back in 2017 ... pretty much everybody had the Ohio State game locked in as a loss too. So this sort of prognostication is obviously far from an exact science.

So sure ... the schedule is a little harder. The margin of which might be less significant than many believe.

However, for a greater contrast - the 2021 starting line-up featured a ridiculous among of inexperience in the trenches. One of the last times I remember the trench-warriors being that inexperienced at spots so pivotal to our schemes and identity was back in 2012. On the OL, that year, our primary returning "regular" starters were J. Ferentz and Tobin. Scherff had some experience ... but also ultimately went down with injury. On the DL, Dom Alvis was the closest thing to a regular returning starter ... but even he was regularly injured. Bigach saw some starts prior to '12 ... but just starting in place of guys who were injured. So what ... in '12, for all intents and purposes, returned 3 regular starters among our trench-warriors.

Now look at 2021! Our only returning starter on the DL was VanValkenburg. On the OL, our primary returning regular starter was Linderbaum. Ince also started a bunch during the covid-limited season ... and Schott rotated in a lot (having 2 "official" starts). Entering the 2021 season ... Schott was injured and Ince was rather "limited" (for a myriad of reasons). Consequently, the '21 trench-warriors were largely manned by just 3 prior regular starters too!

Now fast forward to the '22 season! The Hawks return no fewer than 3 regular starters on the DL ... and that is with Evans being viewed solely as our 6th man on the DL. When you consider how active that DL-rotation was and given the productivity of Van Ness ... that extremely heartening!

On the OL ... the Hawks have 2 extremely promising returning starters in Colby and Richman (both of whom were freshmen last season). Plumb and/or DeJong return with every bit as much experience as Ince had following the '20 season. So what ... MAYBE we have the equivalent of ALMOST 3 returning regular starters on the OL? Obviously, the situation on the OL could be as tenuous as it was in '21 depending on the health of our guys. However, had Shooter been healthy in '21 and had Ince been healthy and NOT faced the adversity he had ... then the scaffolding for the '21 OL looked like it could be quite promising too!

As others have noted, the Hawks have recruited quite well over the past several years ... and that includes getting quite a number of promising guys in the trenches. Consequently, I'm willing to speculate that it's not a bad situation having quality RS FR like Stephens and Davidkov ready to step-up and contribute. Furthermore, when healthy, Mylinski could make noise. Much to the chagrin of Kelvin Bell ... quality D-linemen like Liddle and Jones are poised to give the OL an infusion of depth and talent.

Looking to the DL, I wouldn't consider it an unlikely scenario that Graves could earn some situational snaps.

Anyhow, suppose my optimism concerning our 2022 trench-warriors is merited? Then, even with a harder schedule ... might that not count for something?
 
Goodson put us behind the chains more consistently than any other player/player group. Add in his less than admirable mirage pass blocking and he single handedly killed many series. Occasional home run yes but not worth the collateral damage.
To Goodson's credit ... he improved on pass-pro throughout the season. But yes ... it was a liability through a good portion of the season.

Goodson also wasn't hard to get down to the turf ... that too was a liability given the state of our OL through much of the season. Often, when you have inexperience and/or confidence issues on the OL ... you usually want a more powerful back so that he might be harder to bring down and more apt to "make his own holes." In other words, a bigger/stronger back tends to give the OL a little bit more developmental "wiggle-room."

I think that Goodson was a great Iowa RB ... and there's no way that I'll throw him under the bus. However, given the state of our O last year ... our RB situation wasn't as much of a strength as is ideal.
 
Crossovers are tougher yes, but most of our trophy games are at home this year, so to some extent I feel like it balances out. Idk that anyone in our division has gotten appreciably better either.
Even if you think that the division hasn't gotten tougher, I have a hard time thinking that we're going 10 for 10 outside of Ohio St/Michigan or splitting those games this year on the road
 
I think that folks have to be careful concerning declarations about Indiana last year.

We got into the head of Penix ... and got them out of sync from the outset. However, their D did the best they could in order to try to keep it a game.

2 games later ... Indiana was in a position where minus a completely GAME-CHANGING targeting penalty by their top LB ... the woulda/coulda/shoulda beat Cincinnati (a team that went on to go to the play-offs).

When the Hawks faced IU ... they still had a pulse. IU's roster went on to get absolutely obliterated by injuries. Furthermore, given that they had so many mercenary transfer-portal players ... when the losses pile on, having mercenaries doesn't exactly help locker-room chemistry and cohesiveness.

Similarly, the Hawks played Penn State when perfection was on the line for PSU. Quite a salty defense ... particularly stout in the red-zone. PSU was no joke in '21 ... they lost to Illinois largely because the Hawks had injured Clifford. They lost to Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State by a grand-total of 16 points! Late in the game ... they were in a position where the arguably should have beaten Michigan.

Head-to-head Maryland plastered Rutgers ... so the trade-off from '21 to '22 of replacing Maryland with Rutgers isn't the biggest deal.

Replacing the '21 PSU team (at that juncture of the season) with the '22 Michigan squad ... I'd argue that the difference there is rather moot.

The PRIMARY difference is that Ohio State is the closest thing to a sure-loss on the schedule. That's something that we didn't have on our schedule last year. Of course, back in 2017 ... pretty much everybody had the Ohio State game locked in as a loss too. So this sort of prognostication is obviously far from an exact science.

So sure ... the schedule is a little harder. The margin of which might be less significant than many believe.

However, for a greater contrast - the 2021 starting line-up featured a ridiculous among of inexperience in the trenches. One of the last times I remember the trench-warriors being that inexperienced at spots so pivotal to our schemes and identity was back in 2012. On the OL, that year, our primary returning "regular" starters were J. Ferentz and Tobin. Scherff had some experience ... but also ultimately went down with injury. On the DL, Dom Alvis was the closest thing to a regular returning starter ... but even he was regularly injured. Bigach saw some starts prior to '12 ... but just starting in place of guys who were injured. So what ... in '12, for all intents and purposes, returned 3 regular starters among our trench-warriors.

Now look at 2021! Our only returning starter on the DL was VanValkenburg. On the OL, our primary returning regular starter was Linderbaum. Ince also started a bunch during the covid-limited season ... and Schott rotated in a lot (having 2 "official" starts). Entering the 2021 season ... Schott was injured and Ince was rather "limited" (for a myriad of reasons). Consequently, the '21 trench-warriors were largely manned by just 3 prior regular starters too!

Now fast forward to the '22 season! The Hawks return no fewer than 3 regular starters on the DL ... and that is with Evans being viewed solely as our 6th man on the DL. When you consider how active that DL-rotation was and given the productivity of Van Ness ... that extremely heartening!

On the OL ... the Hawks have 2 extremely promising returning starters in Colby and Richman (both of whom were freshmen last season). Plumb and/or DeJong return with every bit as much experience as Ince had following the '20 season. So what ... MAYBE we have the equivalent of ALMOST 3 returning regular starters on the OL? Obviously, the situation on the OL could be as tenuous as it was in '21 depending on the health of our guys. However, had Shooter been healthy in '21 and had Ince been healthy and NOT faced the adversity he had ... then the scaffolding for the '21 OL looked like it could be quite promising too!

As others have noted, the Hawks have recruited quite well over the past several years ... and that includes getting quite a number of promising guys in the trenches. Consequently, I'm willing to speculate that it's not a bad situation having quality RS FR like Stephens and Davidkov ready to step-up and contribute. Furthermore, when healthy, Mylinski could make noise. Much to the chagrin of Kelvin Bell ... quality D-linemen like Liddle and Jones are poised to give the OL an infusion of depth and talent.

Looking to the DL, I wouldn't consider it an unlikely scenario that Graves could earn some situational snaps.

Anyhow, suppose my optimism concerning our 2022 trench-warriors is merited? Then, even with a harder schedule ... might that not count for something?
Well said as always Ghost. That old saying, "its not just who you play, BUT when you play them", still very much applies as you aptly pointed out. I'd also agree I don't see Michigan being near as good as they were last year, given the number of super seniors they had come back for that run. PSU was a MUCH better team when we played them, then people are giving them credit for. Heck, even ISU was ranked in the top ten when we played them. Somehow people think we got to that #2 ranking by some kind of fluke. I think their underselling what the hawks did to that point, using the hindsight of our struggles against Purdue as reasoning...
 
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Even if you think that the division hasn't gotten tougher, I have a hard time thinking that we're going 10 for 10 outside of Ohio St/Michigan or splitting those games this year on the road
Michigan is a home game so I do think we at least have a punchers chance in that one. Beyond that, who knows? Additional players will transfer in/out, coaches may get fired, injuries happen, players develop or regress. My basic expectation going into most seasons is 8 wins. Anything beyond that depends on factors we have no way of guessing at on March 30th.
 
Michigan is Oct night game at Kinnick....Iowa has had success in those games.
Ghost stated it well...OSU is the difference in our crossover matchups but that is offset by wisky at home.
Purdue? Gotta figure them out.
 
I think their underselling what the hawks did to that point, using the hindsight of our struggles against Purdue as reasoning...

Purdue? Gotta figure them out.
What didn't help was that Moss was out ... I'm pretty certain that Hankins was playing hurt ... and even Roberts went down in that game (the bone-bruise occurred in that game, if memory serves).

On top of that, Purdue's OL hadn't played the best prior to that game ... and Brohm really lit a fire under their ass. Our DL had a pretty bad game as it related to pressuring the QB. What was perhaps even worse ... we blitzed some too ... and our blitzes weren't getting home either! That is an illustration of great motivation and coaching on Brohm's part.

The O was a mess in that game too ... Petras being sacked 4 times, throwing 4 INTs, and hurried 6 other times! Given that we're team that is reliant on balance AND our deliberate pace often only gives us around 60 snaps a game ... having so many negative or blown plays in the passing game alone ... that isn't going to win games!

I'd venture to guess that a healthy group of DBs (knock on wood), the departure of David Bell, and improved trench play could do wonders for Iowa against Purdue.

However, all the same ... the whole defensive staff better play a little more off-season prep for Purdue ... because the plan needs to be good to slow the Boilermakers. O'Connell can be deadly if he's allowed to be efficient.
 
What didn't help was that Moss was out ... I'm pretty certain that Hankins was playing hurt ... and even Roberts went down in that game (the bone-bruise occurred in that game, if memory serves).

On top of that, Purdue's OL hadn't played the best prior to that game ... and Brohm really lit a fire under their ass. Our DL had a pretty bad game as it related to pressuring the QB. What was perhaps even worse ... we blitzed some too ... and our blitzes weren't getting home either! That is an illustration of great motivation and coaching on Brohm's part.

The O was a mess in that game too ... Petras being sacked 4 times, throwing 4 INTs, and hurried 6 other times! Given that we're team that is reliant on balance AND our deliberate pace often only gives us around 60 snaps a game ... having so many negative or blown plays in the passing game alone ... that isn't going to win games!

I'd venture to guess that a healthy group of DBs (knock on wood), the departure of David Bell, and improved trench play could do wonders for Iowa against Purdue.

However, all the same ... the whole defensive staff better play a little more off-season prep for Purdue ... because the plan needs to be good to slow the Boilermakers. O'Connell can be deadly if he's allowed to be efficient.
Call me crazy, but I actually think Purdue is going to be better this year than last. Might not have the top end talent of Bell and George, but each position is deeper than last year. The WR room is absolutely littered with high 3 star and 4 star talent. I try not to get to excited about freshman, but there is a top 150 and top 250 DE coming in. One is on campus now actually.

Yes. I've been following this thread because A. Yall treat me well, so it's enjoyable to be here and B. I'm curious how Iowa is going to be.
 
Call me crazy, but I actually think Purdue is going to be better this year than last. Might not have the top end talent of Bell and George, but each position is deeper than last year. The WR room is absolutely littered with high 3 star and 4 star talent. I try not to get to excited about freshman, but there is a top 150 and top 250 DE coming in. One is on campus now actually.

Yes. I've been following this thread because A. Yall treat me well, so it's enjoyable to be here and B. I'm curious how Iowa is going to be.
I’m curious about the match next year. I think Purdue partly caught us at the worst possible time, as we were emotionally spent after the Penn State game. Our secondary was banged up, Karlaftis in particular had a day, and Brohm just called a brilliant game. And obviously there was that Bell guy…

purdue is just odd for us. Our defensive philosophy is predicated on the idea that the opposing team can’t go 80 yards all game long because most coaches, players lack that patience and eventually make a mistake. brohm is that rare coach who is totally content to do just that.
 
I’m curious about the match next year. I think Purdue partly caught us at the worst possible time, as we were emotionally spent after the Penn State game. Our secondary was banged up, Karlaftis in particular had a day, and Brohm just called a brilliant game. And obviously there was that Bell guy…

purdue is just odd for us. Our defensive philosophy is predicated on the idea that the opposing team can’t go 80 yards all game long because most coaches, players lack that patience and eventually make a mistake. brohm is that rare coach who is totally content to do just that.
Ya. I agree. I believe Purdue is just a matchup nightmare for Iowa on both sides of the ball. Brohm has typically avoided running and stopping the run. If you can stop the pass or pass, Brohm teams have been very vulnerable.
 
Call me crazy, but I actually think Purdue is going to be better this year than last. Might not have the top end talent of Bell and George, but each position is deeper than last year. The WR room is absolutely littered with high 3 star and 4 star talent. I try not to get to excited about freshman, but there is a top 150 and top 250 DE coming in. One is on campus now actually.

Yes. I've been following this thread because A. Yall treat me well, so it's enjoyable to be here and B. I'm curious how Iowa is going to be.
The top end guys make a scheme work. Football is at a basic level, a numbers game. When you don't have to double a guy, that opens up the playbook to fool or misdirect you. Unless Purdue finds a way to make up for that, they're getting worse next year - depth isn't a good answer there.
 
Call me crazy, but I actually think Purdue is going to be better this year than last. Might not have the top end talent of Bell and George, but each position is deeper than last year. The WR room is absolutely littered with high 3 star and 4 star talent. I try not to get to excited about freshman, but there is a top 150 and top 250 DE coming in. One is on campus now actually.

Yes. I've been following this thread because A. Yall treat me well, so it's enjoyable to be here and B. I'm curious how Iowa is going to be.
I agree that Purdue will likely be better on many fronts next year.

However, I also don't think that people should forget one of the key reasons why Purdue won last year (against Iowa).

Usually Purdue "out schemes" Iowa ... with Brohm cleverly finding a match-up that exploits Iowa's D. The PU D then does enough to make the Hawks play from behind the chains ... and that can usually be enough to beat the Hawks just as long as the O scores more than the Iowa O. Not many Os best Phil Parker's D ... but Brohm is a guy who does it.

However, in 2021, Purdue beat Iowa, first and foremost, in the trenches. This issue got further exacerbated by the fact that David Bell almost single-handedly gutted Iowa's secondary! However, that's the issue with the trench-play ... Purdue's OL bested Iowa's DL ... and that afforded O'Connell the opportunity to pick the Hawks apart.

I've also already alluded to how abysmal Iowa's O was in the game ... particularly, how much Purdue disrupted the passing game.

However, context is important here - Iowa's OL was NOT good then. Purdue's DL was able to exploit that to great affect (at least, if you're a PU fan).

The fact that the Boilermakers managed to jump on the board early and often applied a great pressure to Iowa's O ... forcing the Hawks to become way too pass-heavy. Getting caught in predictable passing situations with an OL that was exceedingly exploitable ... that is NOT any sort of recipe for victory.

Given whatever improvements Purdue might make ... Iowa's line play will not even remotely be in the same zip-code as it was last year. I truly expect a night-day shift in Iowa's line play in '22. With greater experience and better play ... that will render Iowa's line play less exploitable. Greater experience also tends to lead to better consistency.

If the Iowa O can play with balance and keep the score close - then the PU defense will not be able tee-off against the passing game like last year.

The end result being a far more competitive game.

Enough for a victory? Hell if I know!?

O'Connell can produce at QB for Purdue. Iowa has QBs who have won games. But they haven't proven that they can win games based on the merits of their arm like O'Connell. So I'll give PU a marked advantage in that regard (as would most rational Hawk fans).
 
The top end guys make a scheme work. Football is at a basic level, a numbers game. When you don't have to double a guy, that opens up the playbook to fool or misdirect you. Unless Purdue finds a way to make up for that, they're getting worse next year - depth isn't a good answer there.
I'm sure someone on the dline will step up. It was super young, has some talent, and is coached by one of the best dline coaches in college football. WR, not worried at all. Plenty of top guys.
 
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Reactions: red/green hawk
I think that 8-4 & 9-3 is right there as far as potential final expected W-L records this season, if I was handicapping it I'd put Iowa at 8.5 wins on the Vegas board. Our schedule is far more challenging when compared to last year. We won't beat the Death Star at the 'Shoe and we likely drop one of the games between Michigan & Wisconsin, but hopefully not both, but it's also possible we might. We could also have another headscratcher where we lose to a team where we have no excuses for the poor result.
 
The OL absolutely MUST take a huge step forward and start dominating defensive lines. This is what KF is known for. We need to run the ball effectively anytime we line up.

If we do, we will be successful, because our defense has always been good and could be really dominant this coming season if everyone stays healthy.

If the OL struggles for a 2nd straight year … we will be lucky to qualify for a bowl.

I truly believe it is that simple.
 
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