Best Case/Worst Case for Iowa football
The best case for Nate Stanley has a high ceiling that includes 3,000 yards & 30 TDs
Tom Kakert • HawkeyeReport.com
@hawkeyereport
As we look ahead to the 2018 football season, the Iowa football team will once again have a relatively narrow margin for error.
That’s pretty much the norm for the Hawkeyes.
When things go right, there’s a pretty good chance that Iowa will end up with strong season. When it all comes together in a big way, you get seasons like 2002, 2009, and 2015. When it goes the opposite direction, you can have seasons like 2007 and 2012, where the Hawkeyes are left home for the holidays.
With that in mind, let’s go best case/worst case for the 2018 Iowa football team at a couple of key positions that could determine the how the season goes this year.
QUARTERBACK
BEST CASE: It’s fair to say that in his first year as a starter, Nate Stanley exceeded expectations. The true sophomore signal caller finished the 2017 season with 2,437 yards passing, 26 touchdowns, just six interceptions, and completed 55.8% of his passes. He has a couple of fumbles early in the year, but his ball security improved as the season moved along and wasn’t really a threat as a scrambler.
If there’s one area that Stanley could really improve it’s in his completion percentage. Ideally, the Iowa coaches would like to see that up near 60% and if he does that, then his yardage total should get up to around 3,000 yards this season. Given that he threw 26 touchdowns last year, if he improves the completion percentage, it’s not crazy to think he reaches 30 touchdown passes in 2018. If he reaches 60%, 3,000 yards, and 30 touchdowns, Iowa is great shape for very good season.
WORST CASE: I’m going to try and avoid using injuries in the worst case scenarios as much as possible. Having said that, if Stanley goes down for any period of time, Iowa is probably in trouble. While backup’s Peyton Mansell and Spencer Petras are promising, neither of them have taken a snap in a game at the college level.
The other worst case for quarterback is some sort of regression by Stanley. He won’t have Akrum Wadley to lean on, there are plenty of question marks at wide receiver, and the offensive line could be a work in progress this year. It’s certainly possible that Stanley could slide back, especially in the touchdown pass category, especially if the completion percentage number doesn’t improve.
RUNNING BACK
BEST CASE: Iowa gets their two headed monster similar to the 2016 season, where both Akrum Wadley and LeShun Daniels both went over 1,000 yards for the year. That year, Wadley led the team with 1,081 rushing yards and Daniels was close behind with 1,058.
Toren Young and Ivory Kelly-Martin seem capable of being a strong tandum at the position and have skill sets similar to Wadley and Daniels. Young in the power back and Kelly-Martin, while not having the crazy elusiveness of Wadley, can make people miss. While 1,000 yards if the best case for both backs, it’s possible that Young could develop into more of the feature back that Iowa likes to have and crack the 1,000 yard mark, while Kelly-Martin reaches 700 yards on the season.
WORST CASE: Given Iowa’s history, I won’t even bring up injuries to either of the top backs. But, depth is certainly an issue that Iowa has at running back. With Toks Akinrabade’s future still in limbo due to a health scare late last year and no proven depth, Iowa is thin in the backfield.
As mentioned with the quarterback position, Iowa’s offensive line is key here. If the holes are there, the yards won’t be there either. If Iowa can’t run the ball effectively, then they are playing one handed and that’s not a good thing for a team that relies on being balanced on offense.
WIDE RECEIVER
BEST CASE: Iowa fans should feel good about what they have in Nick Easley. Last year he was a walk-on JUCO transfer and all he did was lead the Hawkeyes in receiving with 51 receptions for 530 yards and 4 touchdowns.
After that, it’s a whole lot of question marks. However, the talent is there for Iowa to have a couple of players emerge as key contributors. It’s hard for a true freshman to come in and make an impact at wide receiver, but as coaches are fond of saying, the best thing about a freshman is they become sophomores. Now, Brandon Smith and Ihmir Smith-Marsette are headed into their sophomore year and the light bulb comes on. Both have the skill set and athletic ability and they emerge as key contributors. If Iowa can get a combined 60 receptions and 7 touchdowns from the two young receivers, it really opens up the Hawkeyes passing game for Easley and tight ends Noah Fant and T.J. Hockenson.
WORST CASE: Yeah, about those guys emerging. Kirk and Brian Ferentz kind of hinted at it this spring. They have seen Smith and Smith-Marsette perform well in practice, but they need to do it when the lights are on this fall.
It’s fair to say that both had their fair share of struggles in their freshman year and it’s possible that they continue to have an uneven level of performance this fall.
LINEBACKER
BEST CASE: With all three starters moving on, there are some big shoes to fill. There are also some very capable players ready to fill them. Ideally, Amani Jones takes over at middle linebacker. He wears #52 and he lives up to the standard of Abdul Hodge, who wore that number and had over 400 career tackles as the Hawkeyes man in the middle in the mid-2000’s.
Nick Niemann takes over for his brother at outside linebacker. The Iowa coaches have joked that Nick is bigger and faster than his brother, Ben, who held that job the previous three seasons. The first name changes, but the beat goes on.
It’s unfortunate that Aaron Mends suffered a knee injury late in spring practice. It sure felt like the fifth year senior was poised for a big year. Kristian Welch has a little A.J. Edds feel to his game and turns into a great fit against the run and the pass.
WORST CASE: As mentioned earlier, there are some really big shoes to fill at linebacker and we have seen in the past when there are several new starters at linebacker, it takes time to figure it out.
There’s a real possibility that with three new starters that we see some real struggles, especially early on. Remember, none of the three expected starters have played meaningful snaps beyond special teams’ duty. It’s a big step and there could be some significant struggles along the way.
OFFENSIVE LINE
BEST CASE: We know that there's always a good amount of shuffling up front during spring practice and into fall camp as the Iowa coaches try to identify the best five players on the offensive line.
As a result, it's easy to get a little nervous about the offensive line and how they will perform. More often than not, the coaches get it figured out, pick the right guys, and they perform at a high level. Heck, last year, even with a number of injuries, they figured it out and the offensive line was solid.
While depth is certainly an issue, there's plenty of experience. Keegan Render seems like the ideal choice at center and can lead the group. Alaric Jackson and Tristian Wirfs are outstanding young tackle prospects who will continue to improve. Levi Paulsen showed last year that he was ready to be a starter and Ross Reynolds gained quite a bit of experience last year and should be better because of that experience.
WORST CASE: Again, trying to avoid just using injuries, but Iowa can't afford them at tackle this year. The Hawkeye coaches essentially admitted this spring that they have very little depth at tackle and that's not likely to change.
The bigger concern is what if this group just doesn't come together? Render has one start at center. What if he struggles? Left guard could be a concern as well and what if the tackles experience what amounts to a sophomore slump and don't protect Stanley?
If the line doesn't come come together, then it's hard to see Iowa growing offensively in 2018.
PUNTER
BEST CASE: It can’t get any worse, right?
Last year was a real struggle for Iowa’s punters. Whether it was Colten Rastetter or Ryan Gersonde, Iowa’s punters struggled with distance and hang time. The Hawkeye punters averaged 39.1 yards per punt and their net average was 36.8 yards per punt.
They both showed improvement this spring and the race isn’t over as far as the starting spot. Honestly, it might be a job share with Gersonde handling traditional punting and Rastetter with rugby punting duty. Whatever the outcome, Iowa’s punting has to improve and it doesn’t need to be a drastic improvement. Looking back to 2016, Ron Coluzzi’s numbers would be a good benchmark. He averaged 41.1 yards per punt in his one year at Iowa. Best case, the net punting gets up to around 39 yards per punt.
WORST CASE: The inconsistent punting continues. Neither Rastetter nor Gersonde take over the job and the potential sharing of the duties doesn’t result in improvement.
The best case for Nate Stanley has a high ceiling that includes 3,000 yards & 30 TDs
Tom Kakert • HawkeyeReport.com
@hawkeyereport
As we look ahead to the 2018 football season, the Iowa football team will once again have a relatively narrow margin for error.
That’s pretty much the norm for the Hawkeyes.
When things go right, there’s a pretty good chance that Iowa will end up with strong season. When it all comes together in a big way, you get seasons like 2002, 2009, and 2015. When it goes the opposite direction, you can have seasons like 2007 and 2012, where the Hawkeyes are left home for the holidays.
With that in mind, let’s go best case/worst case for the 2018 Iowa football team at a couple of key positions that could determine the how the season goes this year.
QUARTERBACK
BEST CASE: It’s fair to say that in his first year as a starter, Nate Stanley exceeded expectations. The true sophomore signal caller finished the 2017 season with 2,437 yards passing, 26 touchdowns, just six interceptions, and completed 55.8% of his passes. He has a couple of fumbles early in the year, but his ball security improved as the season moved along and wasn’t really a threat as a scrambler.
If there’s one area that Stanley could really improve it’s in his completion percentage. Ideally, the Iowa coaches would like to see that up near 60% and if he does that, then his yardage total should get up to around 3,000 yards this season. Given that he threw 26 touchdowns last year, if he improves the completion percentage, it’s not crazy to think he reaches 30 touchdown passes in 2018. If he reaches 60%, 3,000 yards, and 30 touchdowns, Iowa is great shape for very good season.
WORST CASE: I’m going to try and avoid using injuries in the worst case scenarios as much as possible. Having said that, if Stanley goes down for any period of time, Iowa is probably in trouble. While backup’s Peyton Mansell and Spencer Petras are promising, neither of them have taken a snap in a game at the college level.
The other worst case for quarterback is some sort of regression by Stanley. He won’t have Akrum Wadley to lean on, there are plenty of question marks at wide receiver, and the offensive line could be a work in progress this year. It’s certainly possible that Stanley could slide back, especially in the touchdown pass category, especially if the completion percentage number doesn’t improve.
RUNNING BACK
BEST CASE: Iowa gets their two headed monster similar to the 2016 season, where both Akrum Wadley and LeShun Daniels both went over 1,000 yards for the year. That year, Wadley led the team with 1,081 rushing yards and Daniels was close behind with 1,058.
Toren Young and Ivory Kelly-Martin seem capable of being a strong tandum at the position and have skill sets similar to Wadley and Daniels. Young in the power back and Kelly-Martin, while not having the crazy elusiveness of Wadley, can make people miss. While 1,000 yards if the best case for both backs, it’s possible that Young could develop into more of the feature back that Iowa likes to have and crack the 1,000 yard mark, while Kelly-Martin reaches 700 yards on the season.
WORST CASE: Given Iowa’s history, I won’t even bring up injuries to either of the top backs. But, depth is certainly an issue that Iowa has at running back. With Toks Akinrabade’s future still in limbo due to a health scare late last year and no proven depth, Iowa is thin in the backfield.
As mentioned with the quarterback position, Iowa’s offensive line is key here. If the holes are there, the yards won’t be there either. If Iowa can’t run the ball effectively, then they are playing one handed and that’s not a good thing for a team that relies on being balanced on offense.
WIDE RECEIVER
BEST CASE: Iowa fans should feel good about what they have in Nick Easley. Last year he was a walk-on JUCO transfer and all he did was lead the Hawkeyes in receiving with 51 receptions for 530 yards and 4 touchdowns.
After that, it’s a whole lot of question marks. However, the talent is there for Iowa to have a couple of players emerge as key contributors. It’s hard for a true freshman to come in and make an impact at wide receiver, but as coaches are fond of saying, the best thing about a freshman is they become sophomores. Now, Brandon Smith and Ihmir Smith-Marsette are headed into their sophomore year and the light bulb comes on. Both have the skill set and athletic ability and they emerge as key contributors. If Iowa can get a combined 60 receptions and 7 touchdowns from the two young receivers, it really opens up the Hawkeyes passing game for Easley and tight ends Noah Fant and T.J. Hockenson.
WORST CASE: Yeah, about those guys emerging. Kirk and Brian Ferentz kind of hinted at it this spring. They have seen Smith and Smith-Marsette perform well in practice, but they need to do it when the lights are on this fall.
It’s fair to say that both had their fair share of struggles in their freshman year and it’s possible that they continue to have an uneven level of performance this fall.
LINEBACKER
BEST CASE: With all three starters moving on, there are some big shoes to fill. There are also some very capable players ready to fill them. Ideally, Amani Jones takes over at middle linebacker. He wears #52 and he lives up to the standard of Abdul Hodge, who wore that number and had over 400 career tackles as the Hawkeyes man in the middle in the mid-2000’s.
Nick Niemann takes over for his brother at outside linebacker. The Iowa coaches have joked that Nick is bigger and faster than his brother, Ben, who held that job the previous three seasons. The first name changes, but the beat goes on.
It’s unfortunate that Aaron Mends suffered a knee injury late in spring practice. It sure felt like the fifth year senior was poised for a big year. Kristian Welch has a little A.J. Edds feel to his game and turns into a great fit against the run and the pass.
WORST CASE: As mentioned earlier, there are some really big shoes to fill at linebacker and we have seen in the past when there are several new starters at linebacker, it takes time to figure it out.
There’s a real possibility that with three new starters that we see some real struggles, especially early on. Remember, none of the three expected starters have played meaningful snaps beyond special teams’ duty. It’s a big step and there could be some significant struggles along the way.
OFFENSIVE LINE
BEST CASE: We know that there's always a good amount of shuffling up front during spring practice and into fall camp as the Iowa coaches try to identify the best five players on the offensive line.
As a result, it's easy to get a little nervous about the offensive line and how they will perform. More often than not, the coaches get it figured out, pick the right guys, and they perform at a high level. Heck, last year, even with a number of injuries, they figured it out and the offensive line was solid.
While depth is certainly an issue, there's plenty of experience. Keegan Render seems like the ideal choice at center and can lead the group. Alaric Jackson and Tristian Wirfs are outstanding young tackle prospects who will continue to improve. Levi Paulsen showed last year that he was ready to be a starter and Ross Reynolds gained quite a bit of experience last year and should be better because of that experience.
WORST CASE: Again, trying to avoid just using injuries, but Iowa can't afford them at tackle this year. The Hawkeye coaches essentially admitted this spring that they have very little depth at tackle and that's not likely to change.
The bigger concern is what if this group just doesn't come together? Render has one start at center. What if he struggles? Left guard could be a concern as well and what if the tackles experience what amounts to a sophomore slump and don't protect Stanley?
If the line doesn't come come together, then it's hard to see Iowa growing offensively in 2018.
PUNTER
BEST CASE: It can’t get any worse, right?
Last year was a real struggle for Iowa’s punters. Whether it was Colten Rastetter or Ryan Gersonde, Iowa’s punters struggled with distance and hang time. The Hawkeye punters averaged 39.1 yards per punt and their net average was 36.8 yards per punt.
They both showed improvement this spring and the race isn’t over as far as the starting spot. Honestly, it might be a job share with Gersonde handling traditional punting and Rastetter with rugby punting duty. Whatever the outcome, Iowa’s punting has to improve and it doesn’t need to be a drastic improvement. Looking back to 2016, Ron Coluzzi’s numbers would be a good benchmark. He averaged 41.1 yards per punt in his one year at Iowa. Best case, the net punting gets up to around 39 yards per punt.
WORST CASE: The inconsistent punting continues. Neither Rastetter nor Gersonde take over the job and the potential sharing of the duties doesn’t result in improvement.
