Here we go. If we end up in the Big "Ten" playing home and home in Tallahassee and Iowa City, I will 100% believe I am living in a simulation.
Which schools should the Big Ten poach next?
fivethirtyeight.com
Tier 1: Notre Dame
SCHOOL | SPORTS | FIT | MARKET | COMPOSITE |
---|
Notre Dame | 77 | 49 | 93 | 73 |
Do I really need to go into detail here? The Big Ten would take Notre Dame in a heartbeat.
It’s worth noting that Notre Dame’s composite score isn’t that much higher than the four schools in the next tier. That’s because it would be a fairly big outlier for the conference as a private, religious, non-AAU school with a fairly small enrollment — although it makes up for that in the fit category with a strong academic score and by being a football rival to many current Big Ten programs.
But it blows everyone else away in the market category. There might be a lesson here: With a big enough market, your fit doesn’t need to be perfect — rather, it just needs to be good enough that you can squint and see it. Good academics plus strong rivalries against many current Big Ten members is likely enough for Notre Dame to pass the squint-and-see-it test in the conference’s eyes, despite its other oddities.
Tier 2: No-Brainers
SCHOOL | SPORTS | FIT | MARKET | COMPOSITE |
---|
North Carolina | 61 | 73 | 71 | 68 |
Oregon | 60 | 63 | 77 | 67 |
Florida State | 55 | 58 | 82 | 65 |
Washington | 49 | 83 | 64 | 65 |
North Carolina, Oregon, Florida State, Washington. I call these no-brainers because they all rate as at least average relative to current Big Ten members.
Why does that matter? Well, the Big Ten faces somewhat conflicting incentives. On the one hand, it wants to expand the pie as much as possible. There’s no harm in adding a TV household in Seattle just because you already have one in Des Moines. On the other hand, it does sometimes need to divide that pie. Of course, this can be subject to negotiation:
whether new members get a full share when the conference signs a
huge TV contract. But you run some risk of dilution if a school takes from the league more than it brings in.
I don’t think that’s a risk with these four schools. For one thing, as I mentioned, they all have at least average overall ratings relative to current Big Ten members. And they all have
above average market ratings (the average market rating among current Big Ten members, plus UCLA and USC, is 59). To some extent, the other categories would probably also improve over time.
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North Carolina, Oregon and Washington are also schools that fit the paradigmatic Big Ten template of public flagship schools which are AAU members and the dominant college brands in their states. Beyond that, there are some variations on a theme. Oregon has the lowest U.S. News ranking and the smallest enrollment of these schools, but the best sports program. Washington brings the Seattle market and 47,400 students. Both schools would also provide natural rivals to USC and UCLA.
North Carolina’s position might be more surprising here, given that it wasn’t on The Action Network’s short list. But in many ways, it’s comparable to Oregon and Washington, or perhaps even a superior option in some respects. North Carolina is a big state and getting bigger, UNC has improved on the gridiron to the point where it’s
at least usually making bowl games, and it’s excellent in the non-football sports.
Florida State isn’t in the AAU, but it has a
pretty good academic ranking and a huge enrollment. I’d put it like this: if you think Notre Dame is a good enough fit for the Big Ten because of its other attributes, then Florida State has to qualify as well; it has a better fit rating than Notre Dame, in fact. And it has the second-best market rating after Notre Dame.