Big Ten WBB is completely different this year. Saw something similar posted on the Boneyard. In one year, the BIG has changed from an under-athletic offensive conference, to a much more athletic defensive conference, at least toward the top. The personnel and statistical changes from last year to this year are dramatic.
First, the personnel. Last year, the entire BIG had 7 McDonald’s AAs, including POY, offensive juggernaut Caitlin Clark, and defensive POY (coaches) Celeste Taylor. This year the BIG has 29 McDonald’s AAs (1 is redshirting), including 20 from the Pac-12 4 as follows: UCLA - 9, USC – 8 Oregon - 2, and Washington - 1.
Second, the statistics. Last year, Iowa led the league in conference game opponents’ effective field goal percentage (efg%) at 47.3%. This year, USC, UCLA and Oregon lead the league in conference play opponents’ efg% at 38.2%, 43.4% and 44.8%. That is a big shift. Nine teams in the league this year have a lower opponents’ efg% than Iowa had last year in conference play. A more complete measure of defense is opponents’ points per play (PPP) (a play is a shot, free-throw attempt or turnover). In conference play, the better teams in the BIG this year have materially lower Opponents’ PPP, as follows:
Not surprisingly, with Opponents’ PPP being down, turnovers and blocks are significantly up this year, a product of increased athleticism (and size). USC’s Opponents’ PPP in BIG play is the lowest in the history of advanced stats (since 2009-10). If USC’s statistical profile looks the same at year end, USC will likely be the best defensive team in the history of BIG WBB.
Conversely, while UCLA is a very good offensive team, the best in the BIG this year, UCLA’s offensive PPP (efficiency) in BIG games is a good bit down from both Iowa and Indiana last year, and similar to Michigan State last year:
USC’s Offensive PPP this year in BIG games is .9, a far cry from the Caitlin Clark and Mackenzie Holmes-led squads.
At this point, BIG teams have only played 8, 9 or 10 conference games. So the sample size for this year is small. It will be interesting to see at year end if this year’s BIG continues to look as statistically different from last year’s BIG as it currently does.
First, the personnel. Last year, the entire BIG had 7 McDonald’s AAs, including POY, offensive juggernaut Caitlin Clark, and defensive POY (coaches) Celeste Taylor. This year the BIG has 29 McDonald’s AAs (1 is redshirting), including 20 from the Pac-12 4 as follows: UCLA - 9, USC – 8 Oregon - 2, and Washington - 1.
Second, the statistics. Last year, Iowa led the league in conference game opponents’ effective field goal percentage (efg%) at 47.3%. This year, USC, UCLA and Oregon lead the league in conference play opponents’ efg% at 38.2%, 43.4% and 44.8%. That is a big shift. Nine teams in the league this year have a lower opponents’ efg% than Iowa had last year in conference play. A more complete measure of defense is opponents’ points per play (PPP) (a play is a shot, free-throw attempt or turnover). In conference play, the better teams in the BIG this year have materially lower Opponents’ PPP, as follows:
| | Opponents' |
| SEASON | TEAM | PPP |
| 2024-25 | USC | 0.66 |
| 2024-25 | Oregon | 0.73 |
| 2024-25 | Michigan St. | 0.76 |
| 2024-25 | UCLA | 0.77 |
| 2024-25 | Ohio St. | 0.77 |
| 2023-24 | Ohio St. | 0.79 |
| 2024-25 | Illinois | 0.81 |
| 2024-25 | Indiana | 0.83 |
| 2024-25 | Nebraska | 0.83 |
| 2024-25 | Maryland | 0.83 |
| 2024-25 | Minnesota | 0.83 |
| 2024-25 | Rutgers | 0.84 |
| 2024-25 | Iowa | 0.84 |
| 2023-24 | Iowa | 0.85 |
| 2023-24 | Indiana | 0.85 |
Not surprisingly, with Opponents’ PPP being down, turnovers and blocks are significantly up this year, a product of increased athleticism (and size). USC’s Opponents’ PPP in BIG play is the lowest in the history of advanced stats (since 2009-10). If USC’s statistical profile looks the same at year end, USC will likely be the best defensive team in the history of BIG WBB.
Conversely, while UCLA is a very good offensive team, the best in the BIG this year, UCLA’s offensive PPP (efficiency) in BIG games is a good bit down from both Iowa and Indiana last year, and similar to Michigan State last year:
| | Offensive |
| SEASON | TEAM | PPP |
| 2023-24 | Iowa | 1.06 |
| 2023-24 | Indiana | 1 |
| 2024-25 | UCLA | 0.97 |
| 2023-24 | MSU | 0.96 |
USC’s Offensive PPP this year in BIG games is .9, a far cry from the Caitlin Clark and Mackenzie Holmes-led squads.
At this point, BIG teams have only played 8, 9 or 10 conference games. So the sample size for this year is small. It will be interesting to see at year end if this year’s BIG continues to look as statistically different from last year’s BIG as it currently does.
