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Bold Predictions

HeRKeYHoPeFuL

HR MVP
Dec 5, 2007
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Here are a set of predictions that are based more on gut than stats... I'll provide my thought process for each, then cover my head as you all prepare to beat some sense into me.

1. Bohannon will appear to suffer a sophomore slump.

He was FANTASTIC at the end of the season. People aren't treating him the same way as other sophomores. He takes a higher percentage of shots from deep, which are generally less consistent than layups. Inevitably, he'll go through a cold stretch. He is still young, and I have concerns about his true ceiling compared to what people seem to expect.

2. Garza and Nunge will combine for less than 15 minutes per game.

They're showing really well, especially for freshmen, in the PTL. The B1G is a whole different animal. They'll play, but expect to see Kriener, Wagner, and Uhl getting more minutes than people are expecting as they show the young guns what it takes.

3. Ellingson will have a higher offensive rating by KenPom than Isaiah Moss (needed an objective measure for productivity)

Folks seem to bank on Moss stepping up, but I'm expecting Brady to have the better year. Moss may flash a higher ceiling, but Brady has been more consistent so far.

4. Fran will not get T'd up this year.

He had to rebuild the program, establish the program's culture, and up the talent level. We're getting there. We already dealt with a 6 man freshmen class, so there should be less of a learning curve to upset Fran. Finally, the team is just better and building a reputation as being one of the tougher teams in the league.

More to come as the season approaches...
 
I don't really see a sophomore slump coming for JoBo. I believe his overall game will improve throughout the season and with more weapons on the floor he might not have to shoot from distance as much.
 
Here are a set of predictions that are based more on gut than stats... I'll provide my thought process for each, then cover my head as you all prepare to beat some sense into me.

1. Bohannon will appear to suffer a sophomore slump.

He was FANTASTIC at the end of the season. People aren't treating him the same way as other sophomores. He takes a higher percentage of shots from deep, which are generally less consistent than layups. Inevitably, he'll go through a cold stretch. He is still young, and I have concerns about his true ceiling compared to what people seem to expect.

2. Garza and Nunge will combine for less than 15 minutes per game.

They're showing really well, especially for freshmen, in the PTL. The B1G is a whole different animal. They'll play, but expect to see Kriener, Wagner, and Uhl getting more minutes than people are expecting as they show the young guns what it takes.

3. Ellingson will have a higher offensive rating by KenPom than Isaiah Moss (needed an objective measure for productivity)

Folks seem to bank on Moss stepping up, but I'm expecting Brady to have the better year. Moss may flash a higher ceiling, but Brady has been more consistent so far.

4. Fran will not get T'd up this year.

He had to rebuild the program, establish the program's culture, and up the talent level. We're getting there. We already dealt with a 6 man freshmen class, so there should be less of a learning curve to upset Fran. Finally, the team is just better and building a reputation as being one of the tougher teams in the league.

More to come as the season approaches...
Interesting, but I'll take you up on #2. I'll be shocked if the two frosh together play an average of 15 min per game. I'd bet its more likely that Garza alone plays 15-18 minutes per game. Now I'll admit, I wonder just where Nunge's minutes will come this year, but his versatility should get him at least around 10 minutes per.
 
Here are a set of predictions that are based more on gut than stats... I'll provide my thought process for each, then cover my head as you all prepare to beat some sense into me.

1. Bohannon will appear to suffer a sophomore slump.

He was FANTASTIC at the end of the season. People aren't treating him the same way as other sophomores. He takes a higher percentage of shots from deep, which are generally less consistent than layups. Inevitably, he'll go through a cold stretch. He is still young, and I have concerns about his true ceiling compared to what people seem to expect.

2. Garza and Nunge will combine for less than 15 minutes per game.

They're showing really well, especially for freshmen, in the PTL. The B1G is a whole different animal. They'll play, but expect to see Kriener, Wagner, and Uhl getting more minutes than people are expecting as they show the young guns what it takes.

3. Ellingson will have a higher offensive rating by KenPom than Isaiah Moss (needed an objective measure for productivity)

Folks seem to bank on Moss stepping up, but I'm expecting Brady to have the better year. Moss may flash a higher ceiling, but Brady has been more consistent so far.

4. Fran will not get T'd up this year.

He had to rebuild the program, establish the program's culture, and up the talent level. We're getting there. We already dealt with a 6 man freshmen class, so there should be less of a learning curve to upset Fran. Finally, the team is just better and building a reputation as being one of the tougher teams in the league.

More to come as the season approaches...
I hope you are wrong on most points, or I'll have to lower my win total to 16-18.:p
1. It sounds like your idea of a soph slump for Bohannon is not playing up to bigger soph expectations. IMO he could repeat last season and still have a good year, as long as he keeps playing hard-nosed BBall, and our win total goes up.

2. You could be close, on the Nunge and Garza minutes, without Wagner and Uhl playing much, but I'll be surprised if the freshman aren't closer to 20 together.

3. I like Ellingson as a solid reserve, but if Moss doesn't have the better season, offensively, Ellingson better be putting up (at least) 3 times as many shots per game as the 3.4 per game he shot last year. Does Ken Pom take into account the overall scoring contribution? You can shoot 100% on 3's, and FT's, and shoot 50%+ overall, but if you are taking 4 shots per game (and rarely getting to the FT line) you may not affect the outcome as much as the guy shooting 14 times per game at 43% overall (See Jok).

4. Better not happen if the team isn't playing up to their potential (i.e. defense early last season). This one wouldn't surprise me though.
 
Interesting, but I'll take you up on #2. I'll be shocked if the two frosh together play an average of 15 min per game. I'd bet its more likely that Garza alone plays 15-18 minutes per game. Now I'll admit, I wonder just where Nunge's minutes will come this year, but his versatility should get him at least around 10 minutes per.

I agree with you on Garza because I could see him pairing well with Cook against teams with big front lines, but I think Nunge at PF (stretch 4) pairs well with Cook at center. I could say that pairing for six minutes each half by the second half of the year. Nudge on the floor with Baer, Cook, Bohannon, and either Moss or Ellingson. Maybe even Williams since I think Nunge will prove to be a good scorer, a good ball movement fit with Baer and Cook on the frontline. All three of those guys can move and score at the basket. If Nunge develops physical confidence during the B1G season, learns how to play a role effectively, he could become a key bench player. It might depend on how poems recovers from his injury, too. Those are possible minutes earlier in the year which could help Nunge gain more playing time and develop chemistry more quickly. Exciting possibilities, i'll say that.
 
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1. It sounds like your idea of a soph slump for Bohannon is not playing up to bigger soph expectations. IMO he could repeat last season and still have a good year, as long as he keeps playing hard-nosed BBall, and our win total goes up.

This is the right interpretation. Folks on here and that I've talked to seem to be treating the last few games of the season as his new baseline and what he'll improve from.

I'm expecting a solid 30 mpg, 36-38% from deep, adding a bit more driving/floater to his game, but not increasing his ppg much. I see him in the 6-7 apg range (rather than nightly double double territory).


The Nunge/Garza prediction is more what I expect out of returning players than whether they are capable.
 
1- JBo, Williams, Ellingson
2- Moss, Ellingson, Dailey
3- Baer, Nunge/Uhl
4- Cook, Pemsl, Wagner, Nunge
5- Kreiner/Garza, Cook, Pemsl
 
Our truest center looks to be Garza, and I claim this through reports and scouting. HIs sheer size and reported outlook give him minutes, almost by default. If he plays as kinetically as Baer, as was once observed, he'll be hard to keep off the floor. Fouls will be his greatest enemy.

Nunge is a mismatch. Again, a mismatch. It's what basketball has become. So, he will see the floor, also.

Bohannon's assist total will be his more true barometer this year, IMO. His points will always come, naturally, but how he brings this team together will decide a bunch of things. His experiences last year should be invaluable.

I love Brady Ellingson as much as any Hawkeye. But, pulling for him doesn't make him any faster or less hesitant. He'll be better if he plays smarter and ballsier. He's flashed ability and crawled back into a shell. Come out of the shell, Brady. End of story.
 
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Fran gets a T just to get the teams attention in a bad loss or lazy play. JBO, Moss and Cook could all have sophomore slumps, JBO is most likey because everyone will be looking at him. This will be a good team, potentially really good, if we stay healthy and find the back up to JBO we've all talked about.
 
If teams put that much pressure on Jordan, which they should, the 2 needs to be able to step up and take the pressure off. Moss, Ellingson, whomever. Overall guard play is what college basketball is made of and we need to constantly develop our guards.
 
Nothing against Wagner, but if Kriener/Garza can't beat him out then my expectations for the season will go down. I'm hoping young players are improving to take away minutes or we recruited well.
 
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My bold predictions:
1. Moss leads the team in scoring, at more than 16 ppg.
2. Kriener starts more games than Baer.
3. 2 Hawkeye shoot better than 40% from 3 but neither is named Bohannon or Ellingson.
 
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I like this lineup. The only thing I would change is
5 - Wagner/Kreiner, Garza
I'm sorry, but that makes no sense. We finally have a couple of guys in the 6-10 to 7.0 ft range who can score from anywhere on the floor, and from sheer size alone, should be at least decent in the post on defense, and you want to play a 6'7 guy who in two years at Iowa, has shown that he works hard, but has limited basketball skill? I sure hope your not running Wagner out there to guard Drago from Purdue. :eek:
 
I think JBo played closer to his peak than a few other players, but if he develops into the white Steph Curry that would great:) His main improvement needs to be on the defensive end of the court.
 
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I'm sorry, but that makes no sense. We finally have a couple of guys in the 6-10 to 7.0 ft range who can score from anywhere on the floor, and from sheer size alone, should be at least decent in the post on defense, and you want to play a 6'7 guy who in two years at Iowa, has shown that he works hard, but has limited basketball skill? I sure hope your not running Wagner out there to guard Drago from Purdue. :eek:
Just thinking in terms of wing span and coordination. Kriner and Wagner play much taller than what is says in your program.
 
Just thinking in terms of wing span and coordination. Kriner and Wagner play much taller than what is says in your program.
And Garza is much longer then Wagner, and is a true post player. We're all just spiffballing, so none of this matters anyway. My thought though is that Fran says he intends to play Garza and Nunge THIS year. Right now Kreiner appears to have made the biggest jump of the returning 4/5 group. So why when we have the best collection of 4/5 talent in 30 years, hell maybe ever at Iowa, would we play a 6'7 guy in the post? I could see Wags playing some at the three, IF he can show that improvement in his offensive game, against some real defense. Just don't see ANY reason we would play him in front of Garza, Kreiner, Cook, or Nunge at the five spot.
 
And Garza is much longer then Wagner, and is a true post player. We're all just spiffballing, so none of this matters anyway. My thought though is that Fran says he intends to play Garza and Nunge THIS year. Right now Kreiner appears to have made the biggest jump of the returning 4/5 group. So why when we have the best collection of 4/5 talent in 30 years, hell maybe ever at Iowa, would we play a 6'7 guy in the post? I could see Wags playing some at the three, IF he can show that improvement in his offensive game, against some real defense. Just don't see ANY reason we would play him in front of Garza, Kreiner, Cook, or Nunge at the five spot.
Never said Wagner should start in place of Kriener. Wagner/Kreiner was my original post. Some games against smaller, quicker lineups Wagner may be the way to go. Fran wants the best five on the floor that doesn't mean throwing the tallest guy you have out there as your center. Garza is killing it in the PTL and that is great, but so did Andrew Flemming.
 
Never said Wagner should start in place of Kriener. Wagner/Kreiner was my original post. Some games against smaller, quicker lineups Wagner may be the way to go. Fran wants the best five on the floor that doesn't mean throwing the tallest guy you have out there as your center. Garza is killing it in the PTL and that is great, but so did Andrew Flemming.
I never said just throw the tallest guy out there either did I? I said Garza is a true post player, on both ends of the floor. What exactly has Wagner done in the first two seasons to make you think he should be playing center? So what Garza is doing in the PTL is meaningless, but Wagner scoring some points there, for the first time in his career means something? As I've stated before, I love Wagners effort, but there are four or five guys, I'd play in the post before him. As for your comment about Flemming in the PTL, really? Is he going to be the poster boy that everyone uses for the PTL play not transfering to how they'll play during the season? The kid was a head case, and struggled to find his fit on the team. Garza fits right into a spot, where Iowa has a significant need Now! His low post game, perimeter shooting, and free throw shooting are miles ahead of Wagner. IMHO your idea makes as much sense as it would have last year for Fran to keep Cook on the bench, and play Wagner at the four. Talent needs to play, NOW!
 
Ah, time will tell, but it sure is refreshing to have an Iowa Hoops team with so many options! Bold Prediction - whatever it takes to win the B1G 16-2 or 15-3. Go Hawks!!!

Sedge
 
1- JBo, Williams, Ellingson
2- Moss, Ellingson, Dailey
3- Baer, Nunge/Uhl
4- Cook, Pemsl, Wagner, Nunge
5- Kreiner/Garza, Cook, Pemsl

I agree with this and feel very strongly about Ellingson and Kreiner - I think both get 16 minutes or more. Kreiner will surprise some people, but a lot comes down to which big can play defense.

Wagner, Dailey, Williams and Uhl are at risk for < 8 min per game, especially if Ellingson shows up. Dailey is the best of that group as he has position flex, can space the floor with his shooting, and is a very willing passer. Good "glue" guy who won't hunt shots.

The best way to show this is to list minutes:
PG: Bohannon 30, Ellingson 8, Williams 2
SG: Moss 25, Ellingson 10, Dailey 5
SF: Baer 25, Nunge 10, Dailey 5
PF: Cook 25, Pemsl 10, Wagner 5
C: Kriener 20, Garza 15, Cook 5

When you show it that way, it's apparent that it will be hard to get Nunge and Garza much more than 10-15 mpg unless you shut down Wagner and Dailey altogether. Pemsl also fighting for time. And there is almost zero time for Uhl or Williams. Injuries do happen, though.

The biggest battles for minutes:
- Dailey / Ellingson
- Nunge / Wagner / Pemsl
- Kriener / Garza (although I think both will get around 20, with Kreiner getting more due to experience - which helps a lot on defense).

Pemsl is not a Center and shouldn't be on the court at the same time as Cook as both of them are strong on the block - he's a better substitute for Cook off the bench. Having Kriener, Nunge, Garza or Baer on the floor with Cook spreads the defense and gives Cook room to work, or he can step out for screen and rolls while one of the bigs flashes to the block. A Pemsl/Cook combination is troubling in my mind if on the floor together - too easily for their guy to help on the other.
 
If teams put that much pressure on Jordan, which they should, the 2 needs to be able to step up and take the pressure off. Moss, Ellingson, whomever. Overall guard play is what college basketball is made of and we need to constantly develop our guards.

Not too worried about Jordan Bohannon being 'over pressured'. As a true
Freshman he set records for Points and assists. Go Hawks :)
 
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I listened to the Facebook live broadcast of the PTL on Sunday......announcer said that Wagner and Baer are practicing at the 3/wing position.

Obviously it could be experimental at this point but if Wagner sticks there he most likely is not in competition at the post......maybe slides over to the 4 if needed.

Fran has a really good problem....trying to figure out how to best use all this talent in the right positions and combinations.

I can't wait for reports on the overseas games just to know who is playing together, etc.
 
I think JBo will have a better year than last but the expectations will be so high that it will seem like a "Sophomore Slump". I also think Fran will lead the BIG T's this year...
 
Never said that Wagner wasn't going to play. Just said the poster saying he should be Iowa's starting center made no sense at all.

I think you meant to respond to another comment. All I said was that I had agreed with the OP in that Wagner would likely play more minutes than many expected. The "Wagner wasnt going to play" is out of left field.

cheers,
 
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