Tom's
@hawkeyereport article says that picking order after Tampa is Music City, Pinstripe, Duke's Mayo, Guaranteed Rate. I can't find that published anywhere. Big Ten announcement when they signed the new contracts simply says, "The Big Ten’s 2020-25 bowl lineup will also feature the same selection process that has been used since 2014 to ensure outstanding bowl matchups and fresh postseason destinations. Each bowl partner will work with the Big Ten to create the best possible matchup based upon an agreed set of parameters, with final approval by the conference office for all team selections."
This website claims to list each bowl's payout:
https://businessofcollegesports.com/college-football-playoff-payouts/
Citrus $8.2MM
Reliaquest $6.4MM
Music City $5.7MM
Duke's Mayo $4.8MM
Pinstripe $4.4MM
Guaranteed Rate $1.6MM
If that's accurate, you'd think Duke's Mayo would get priority over Pinstripe, in which case the following would make sense to me if favorites win next week:
CFP: Michigan
Rose: OSU
Cotton: PSU
Citrus: Purdue
Reliaquest: Illinois
Music City: Iowa or Minnesota
Duke's Mayo: Iowa or Minnesota
Pinstripe: Wisconsin (Maryland went there last year)
Guaranteed Rate: Maryland
If Purdue upsets Michigan, then they go to Rose and PSU falls to Citrus. Michigan still in CFP, and OSU to Orange. Because B1G got Orange we give up Reliaquest bid to ACC (what a weird contract:
https://theacc.com/sports/2022/1/31/FB_0131224420.aspx) and Illinois drops to Music City, Duke's picks between Iowa and Minnesota and the other goes to Pinstripe, Maryland & Wisconsin get Guaranteed Rate and Quicklane.
Now if OSU gets into CFP and Purdue is in Rose, then Cotton slot should be available for PSU and Illini go to Tampa, and so on down the line.
If OSU gets CFP and Michigan beats Purdue, then PSU gets Rose, Purdue Orlando and so on down the line.
The Orange/Reliaquest deal doesn't seem fair. Orange pits ACC vs highest ranked non-CFP/Rose/Sugar team from BigTen, SEC, and ND. If its Big 10 to Orange, we give ACC our bid to Tampa to play SEC. But if its SEC to Orange we still play the SEC in Tampa (not an ACC team)