Bracketology 3/5

[OskaloosaHawk2]

He has 40 teams listed as safely in the tournament (85% chance of making it). They are:

(1) 1 - Kentucky, 2 - Virginia, 3 - Duke, 4 - Villanova
(2) 5 - Wisconsin, 6 - Arizona, 7 - Gonzaga, 8 - Kansas
(3) 9 - Notre Dame, 10 - Maryland, 11 - Iowa State, 12 - Utah (up 1 line)
(4) 13 - Wichita St., 14 - Oklahoma (down 1 line), 15 - UNI, 16 - Baylor (up 1 line)
(5) 17 - North Carolina, 18 - West Virginia, 19 - Arkansas, 20 - Louisville (down 1 line)
(6) 21 - SMU, 22 - Butler, 23 - Providence, 24 - Georgetown
TEAMS THAT SHOULD BE IN: (7) 25 - VCU, 26 - Iowa, 27 - San Diego St., 28 - Michigan St.
(8) 29 - Georgia, 30 - Dayton, 31 - St. John's (up 1 line), 32 - Ohio St.
(9) 33 - Xavier, 34 - Mississippi (down 1 line), WORK LEFT TO DO: 35 - Oklahoma St., 36 - N.C. State
(10) 37 - Oregon, 38 - Cincinnati, 39 - LSU, 40 - Texas A&M

He lists 22 teams as automatic qualifiers:

(16) 68 - Texas Southern, 67 - Sacramento, 66 - North Florida, 65 - Charleson Southern, 64 - Bucknell, 63 - St. Francis
(15) 62 - N.C. Central, 61 - Albany, 60 - William & Mary, 59 - New Mexico St.
(14) 58 - S. Dakota St., 57 - Toledo, 56 - Georgia St., 55 - UC Davis
(13) 54 - Valparaiso, 53 - La. Tech, 52 - Iona, 51 - Harvard
(12) 50 - Murray St., 49 - Wofford, 48 - Stephen F. Austin
(11) Boise St.

That leaves 14 teams for the 6 last spots. The ones currently holding those 7 are:

(11) 41 - Colorado St., 42 - Purdue, 43 - Indiana, 44 - BYU
(12) 45 - Temple, 46 - Davidson

Those on the wrong side of the bubble are:

69 - Texas
70 - Tulsa
71 - UCLA
72 - Miami
73 - Illinois
74 - Stanford
75 - Old Dominion
76 - Richmond

These are the teams we currently need to root against, in order to move up another seed line (or two?):

(6) 21 - SMU, 22 - Butler, 23 - Providence, 24 - Georgetown
TEAMS THAT SHOULD BE IN: (7) 25 - VCU, 26 - Iowa, 27 - San Diego St., 28 - Michigan St.




Michigan St. still has Indiana.
VCU plays at Davidson tomorrow night - LOSS?
San Diego St. has no tough games until conference tourney.
Butler plays at Providence on Saturday - LOSS?
Georgetown plays Seton Hall, then conference tourney.
SMU plays Tulsa Sunday - LOSS?
Providence plays Butler on Saturday - LOSS?

What's our ceiling here? Is a 6 seed tops or is there any way would could climb to a 5? Do we even want a 5 seed? Personally, I'd rather stay a 6 and play an 11 seed (one of the last bubble teams) than be a 5 and play an under-appreciated conference champion that's a 12 seed. There's a reason the 5-12 sees lots of upsets each year. And 6 seeds are paired up with 3 seeds to get to the Sweet 16, staying away from the #2 seeds. I think a 6 seed is what we want!

 

[wyohawk]

I think it would take a championship run (and a win over Wisconsin) in the BTT for us to work up to 5.

Which, as you said, may not be what we want. 6 is good.

 

[STEEL125]

Look at that draw for the 7 seed in the south, San Diego State. The 2 is Gonzaga, the 3 is Utah. Definitely would want that spot.

 

[cg8284]

This year might be pretty crazy just looking at the 3 thru 6 seeds. I can see a lot of double digit seeds beating those teams.

 

[SDHawkDoc]

Getting to the 6 will take some work, and help from other teams losing.

 

[HoustonREDHawk]

It is strange that the win over IU changed everything so dramatically for Iowa. We went from a solid bubble team to having a shot at a 6 seed. Hawks need to whip the Mildcats, which should solidify the seven seed. A quality win or two in the BTT, and a six seed will be possible. I don't think we can get above a six. We want to keep on a roll and stay out of the 8/9 seed position.

 

[Jan Itor]

Originally posted by HoustonREDHawk:

It is strange that the win over IU changed everything so dramatically for Iowa. We went from a solid bubble team to having a shot at a 6 seed. Hawks need to whip the Mildcats, which should solidify the seven seed. A quality win or two in the BTT, and a six seed will be possible. I don't think we can get above a six. We want to keep on a roll and stay out of the 8/9 seed position.

If we ended up in the 8-9 seed range and were fortunate enough to win our first game, does anyone see a #1 seed that the Hawks matchup with better than the others?

 

[Hawkeye2222]

actually getting a 7 seed in the East might be the best thing to happen to IA as far as matchups go.

just posted this in another thread but with a twist

1st rnd Oregon
2nd rnd Kansas to go to the sweet 16
3rd rnd MD to go to the Elite 8
4th rnd Virginia to go to the FF
5th rnd Duke to go to the Championship game
6th rnd Kentucky
win the NT and Hawks are happy, hey a guy can dream the 1st 4 rnds anything can happen and all those teams IA can beat if they play them like they have been playing.

also UNI is the 4 seed in that region. in the Dance its all about matchups more than the seeding.

 

[BeepBeepInMyJeep]

I would say if we get NW and get to Saturday in the BTT we might be in good shape to get a 6. Obviously 3 of the 6 seeds are playing in the big east tourney together so there's a better chance one of them crumbles in the first round

 

[SeattleHawkeye]

Living in Seattle I've had to endure watching a ton of Gonzaga basketball. We'd smoke them, IMO

 

[Jan Itor]

Originally posted by SeattleHawkeye:
Living in Seattle I've had to endure watching a ton of Gonzaga basketball. We'd smoke them, IMO

They projected as a #2 seed though, aren't they?

 

[FranklinHawk]

Originally posted by Hawkeye2222:

actually getting a 7 seed in the East might be the best thing to happen to IA as far as matchups go.

just posted this in another thread but with a twist

1st rnd Oregon
2nd rnd Kansas to go to the sweet 16
3rd rnd MD to go to the Elite 8
4th rnd Virginia to go to the FF
5th rnd Duke to go to the Championship game
6th rnd Kentucky
win the NT and Hawks are happy, hey a guy can dream the 1st 4 rnds anything can happen and all those teams IA can beat if they play them like they have been playing.

also UNI is the 4 seed in that region. in the Dance its all about matchups more than the seeding.

I prefer to think about it (as Osky did) as what seeds we would face in each round vs. specific teams. From what I've seen the bracketology guys are much more accurate at predicting who is in the tournament and relative seeds than they are in actually placing them in the regions.

Some work needed to get there, but a 6 seed would be awesome.

 

[IACentralHawk73]

I like Iowa's chances against the 2 seeds we can play, which is Gonzaga, Kansas and Arizona. We have a size advantage against KU and Zaga, Arizona has good size but we have longer forwards. We could make an Elite Eight run if we play our best and get lady luck on our side too!

 

[OskaloosaHawk2]

Arkansas down by 3 to 15-15 South Carolina with 2:30 to play. They're two lines ahead of us, but can't imagine if they lose that their 23-7 record would fall below us.

 

[OskaloosaHawk2]

Arkansas ended up winning, but more importantly VCU lost their third in a row by 27 to Davidson. They'll be falling for sure.

 

[DavenportHawk8]

Originally posted by OskaloosaHawk2:
Arkansas ended up winning, but more importantly VCU lost their third in a row by 27 to Davidson. They'll be falling for sure.

Explain to me how VCU loses by 27 and doesn't drop a spot in the RPI

Davidson won that game vs VCU by 27 at home and jumps from 40 to 31?? How does that happen??

Iowa is now RPI 39?

 

[LincolnHawkeye]

Originally posted by DavenportHawk8:

Originally posted by OskaloosaHawk2:
Arkansas ended up winning, but more importantly VCU lost their third in a row by 27 to Davidson.  They'll be falling for sure.

Explain to me how VCU loses by 27 and doesn't drop a spot in the RPI

Davidson won that game vs VCU by 27 at home and jumps from 40 to 31?? How does that happen??

Iowa is now RPI 39? 

RPI doesn't take into account margin of victory, it's hard to drop in RPI when you play a good team on the road
Posted from Rivals Mobile

 

[DavenportHawk8]

Originally posted by LincolnHawkeye:

Originally posted by DavenportHawk8:

Originally posted by OskaloosaHawk2:
Arkansas ended up winning, but more importantly VCU lost their third in a row by 27 to Davidson. They'll be falling for sure.

Explain to me how VCU loses by 27 and doesn't drop a spot in the RPI

Davidson won that game vs VCU by 27 at home and jumps from 40 to 31?? How does that happen??

Iowa is now RPI 39?Â

RPI doesn't take into account margin of victory, it's hard to drop in RPI when you play a good team on the road
Posted from Rivals Mobile

Yeah, I just don't get why the Committee uses RPI. It is hands down the worst measure for college basketball. BPI is so much better and should be used beings ESPN uses it.

 

[icparkerhawk]

Originally posted by DavenportHawk8:

Originally posted by LincolnHawkeye:

Originally posted by DavenportHawk8:

Originally posted by OskaloosaHawk2:
Arkansas ended up winning, but more importantly VCU lost their third in a row by 27 to Davidson.  They'll be falling for sure.

Explain to me how VCU loses by 27 and doesn't drop a spot in the RPI

Davidson won that game vs VCU by 27 at home and jumps from 40 to 31?? How does that happen??

Iowa is now RPI 39? 

RPI doesn't take into account margin of victory, it's hard to drop in RPI when you play a good team on the road
Posted from Rivals Mobile

Yeah, I just don't get why the Committee uses RPI. It is hands down the worst measure for college basketball. BPI is so much better and should be used beings ESPN uses it. 

I'm no fan of the RPI, I think it's garbage. But the BPI isn't the answer. It currently has Florida one spot ahead of us. For those of you not keeping tabs on that excellent basketball conference down south, Florida is currently 15-15 with a losing record in SEC play. BPI has them as a 9 seed and one position ahead of Iowa. Give me Kenpom or Sagarin before BPI gets into the discussion.
Posted from Rivals Mobile