Your a bit confused Lucas on the initals. Aiken and the Astros had agreed to a $6.5 million, still $1.5 million under slot. Then, because there is not baseball combine, he had to undergo a physical. That is when they discovered the shorten UCL. Which could have been nothing or could have been something.
Here is a quote from a surgeon
"No baseball player will have a normal MRI," Dines said. "If someone has a congenitally small ulnar collateral ligament, even if they tear it and you reconstruct it, you can always make it bigger. And it's almost a foregone conclusion these days that a young pitcher who throws in the upper 90s will at some point have a reconstruction anyway.
"When I read the reports about Aiken, I thought that there might be some concern about the bony anatomy where the ligament attaches, perhaps the medial epicondyle. If that is damaged or abnormal, you're left with less bone there to reconstruct the ligament, and that can mean that a reconstruction won't always work. They must have thought, for some reason, that a future reconstruction would not take."
So after that was discovered, the Astros dropped their offer to $3.1 million. Now, you could argue both sides why that was right or wrong. But, suddenly the Astros had all the chips. They could drop it to a ridiculously low amount and if he didn't take it, it's OK they get the number 2 pick in the draft this year (which is what happened). You could argue Aiken should have taken the $3 million (not the $5 million you suggest) but then again he's probably got a bit of pride. Why take way way way way way under slot when you can say no go back into the draft this year? Some team will take then chance and probably give you more than that. (By the way the Astros seemingly drop to a level he wouldn't sign totally screwed over Jacob Nix).
While Aiken committed to UCLA everybody, including the Bruins staff, knew he would never step foot on campus. He was going to be drafted to high. If he went to UCLA he would have to wait until his junior season to be draft eligible again and a lot can happen in three years. So that's why he went IMG (or a junior college) so he could be draft eligible again.
Now, that he's had Tommy John (which isn't that big of a deal anymore) here's what's going to happen. A team like the Cubs, Reds, Rays, Braves are going to draft him in that 8-16 range. Those teams have the ability to wait on him a bit and their fan base won't kill them. So they are getting a pretty good player with a very high upside that they'll just have to wait for a year to put in their system. And if it turns out the arm never returns, they are strong enough organizations to keep plodding along and oh well half the first round picks never make the majors anyways.
This post was edited on 3/28 2:07 PM by ANYCHawk
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