Bruno’s FINAL prediction for president

[BrunoMars420]

I had another thread keeping tabs since July or Aug using 538 avg polling for each of these swing states. After Kamala got into the race there was a massive bump in every poll for the Dems. She made great inroads on every swing state by making it an actual toss up or flipping it. Since the start of the month I have noticed Trump has started to take away all the momentum that she had (again, I am going by these 538 polls) and extending his lead in these states and in some states taking it where Kamala had an upper hand to a complete toss up. The four states that should worry the Dems would be PA, MI, NV, and WI. Kamala has been in the lead by around 1% or more in these states but recent avg polling show Trump turning these into a lot closer races as you will see below as my final look on 10/25/24:
-Ohio- Trump +8.4
-PA- Trump .3
-MI- Harris +.7
-WI- Harris +.2
-AZ-Trump +1.8
-NV- Harris +.5
-FL- Trump +6
-GA- Trump +1.5
-NC- Trump +1.2

After doing some statistics, science, and reading I believe Trump will win and ride this enthusiasm into flipping all 4 of those states above. I think the main thing that hurt Kamala is just time and being in front of cameras then the algo hitting people in these states. She hasn’t really done herself any favors and the rights social media machine is better suited for the dumbed down voter that will most likely flip these races. And yes I know Trump says and does the dumbest shit but that has been baked into what he is for years now while Kamala is relatively new to a lot of America. It is easier on social media to jump on the new shiny toy and bring it down compared to the toy that we collectively broke down already.

Final score is Trump 295 Kamala 243

 

[Huey Grey]

Trump gets landslide. Don't run rapists next time, Rs.

 

[SoProudNole]

Go home, Bruno. You’re petite and drunk.

 

[srams21]

I agree that Trump will win the election, albeit narrowly. Harris wins the popular vote.

 

[BrunoMars420]

I agree that Trump will win the election, albeit narrowly. Harris wins the popular vote.

Yeah, these swing states will be so close. Will be a fun Nov 5th!

 

[BrunoMars420]

Trump gets landslide. Don't run rapists next time, Rs.

I get you hate him but is this just a hope or do you have some data to back up this statement?

 

[Rifler]

Huey runs with his heart...

 

[jonesy5960]

I predict that the majority of Americans don't get the President they voted for.

 

[ihhawk]

Not good for Kamala

 

[srams21]

Yeah, these swing states will be so close. Will be a fun Nov 5th!

Well, I no longer think politics are fun. Used to feel that way. Either way, it's going to be a shitshow. And from this point forward, there will always be a question of what transistion of power looks like and will one side certify the vote. You know, shit we took for granted.

 

[MitchLL]

Also of note in early voting...women are out voting men at a 55/45 ratio.

Which candidate do you think they're voting for?
Dems are better at getting turnout.
That massive fundraising advantage they have leads to field offices giving rides to voters, notifying where the voting locations are, and making calls to remind people to vote.
Polls may not reflect these facts.

 

[StormHawk42]

I’ll make sure to write to HBOT when Trump throws us Dems in prison

 

[BonzoFury]

Fact is, it doesn't matter. We're f***ed either way.

 

[Sullivan]

Trump wins. The race will be called by 10:00 PM election night.

Hopefully, the D's run someone with a brain in 2028. They will be facing Vance.

 

[StormHawk42]

Trump wins. The race will be called by 10:00 PM election night.

Hopefully, the D's run someone with a brain in 2028. They will be facing Vance.

If Trump wins and patterns hold, the R’s are likely going to be routed in 2026 and 2028. Damage will be done by then unfortunately.

 

[Huey Grey]

Trump wins. The race will be called by 10:00 PM election night.

Hopefully, the D's run someone with a brain in 2028. They will be facing Vance.

You're correct on this. Except swap out Harris for Trump.

 

[jonesy5960]

I get a chuckle out of all you guys who think you have a clue about anything. It's almost as entertaining as the football and basketball board experts.

 

[ihhawk]

Let’s make sure you guys keep taking about Hitler.

 

[Huey Grey]

Let’s make sure you guys keep taking about Hitler.

View embedded media

Know how Rs know the Hitler talk is bad? This is how you know the Hitler talk is bad. Desperate already for Trump's Hitler fetish to go away.

 

[Formerly Rockymtnole]

Harris has been better than I expected, but not great. Wish we could’ve had another candidate but wasn’t the case.

Still hoping for a victory but I’m concerned there are too many Trumpers in the swing states.

Really hoping I’m wrong.

 

[Scott559]

I will go on record saying I have no clue how this election will turn out.

 

[ATLNole1]

Know how Rs know the Hitler talk is bad? This is how you know the Hitler talk is bad. Desperate already for Trump's Hitler fetish to go away.

The Hitler comparison does not resonate with non-Democrats anymore because they always compare Republicans with Hitler. They did it constantly with Bush when he was in office and did the same when McCain and Romney were running. It's their standard go-to move so most do not take it seriously anymore even if there is merit to the comparison.

 

[CarolinaHawkeye]

Trump wins. The race will be called by 10:00 PM election night.

Hopefully, the D's run someone with a brain in 2028. They will be facing Vance.

Why? You braindead fascists won't vote for democracy. And chances are, if trump is elected, our elections will resemble russia's and not USA elections of the past.

 

[gohawks50]

The Hitler comparison does not resonate with non-Democrats anymore because they always compare Republicans with Hitler. They did it constantly with Bush when he was in office and did the same when McCain and Romney were running. It's their standard go-to move so most do not take it seriously anymore even if there is merit to the comparison.

Can you link where one of Bush, McCain, or Romney's chiefs of staff made Hitler claims about them?

 

[GOHOX69]

I get you hate him but is this just a hope or do you have some data to back up this statement?

You do know many of the polls are got garbage right?

 

[BrunoMars420]

You do know many of the polls are got garbage right?

It’s all I have to go off of. We will see how garbage they are once Bruno’s prediction is right or wrong

 

[srams21]

If Trump wins and patterns hold, the R’s are likely going to be routed in 2026 and 2028. Damage will be done by then unfortunately.

I would agree but that will require Vance to certify the 2028 election and I'm not sure he will do that. What happens then is anyone's guess. Trump will have most of his people in place by then (if he's elected this year). All bets are off at that point.

 

[ISUBryce]

I get you hate him but is this just a hope or do you have some data to back up this statement?

We haven't had a landslide since Reagan over Mondale. It's not happening. Anybody thinking different is just wishcasting.

 

[GOHOX69]

It’s all I have to go off of. We will see how garbage they are once Bruno’s prediction is right or wrong

Stick to uptown funk.

 

[ISUBryce]

Not good for Kamala

View embedded media

There has been shifting support where greater numbers of minority groups favor the republicans and older white women favor the democrats. Hard to know how significant it will be until after Nov. 5th.

 

[ISUBryce]

Yeah, these swing states will be so close. Will be a fun Nov 5th!

You think this is fun? Honestly? I mean this sincerely everything around politics now I find to be absolutely detestable.

 

[srams21]

It’s all I have to go off of. We will see how garbage they are once Bruno’s prediction is right or wrong

Nate Silver, whom I think might be the best at this literally says it's a statistical toss-up just fyi. Harris will almost assuredly win the popular vote (which is just stupid but that's another discussion). The problem for her is Trump has more swing states he is currently favored in then she does. She has to win PA, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Then she has to win Nevada as well. That's assuming she loses NC, GA, and AZ which I think she probably does. I think she wins WI and MI but loses PA and NV but very small margins btw.

IMO, that's why she should have chosen either Kelly from AZ or Shapiro from PA as her VP.

 

[StormHawk42]

We haven't had a landslide since Reagan over Mondale. It's not happening. Anybody thinking different is just wishcasting.

Yeah although statistically speaking if the 7 swing state polls are off by even 1 point to the left or right (and they likely will be), the winning candidate will likely win almost all of them which will make the margins look bigger.

 

[Rifler]

Nate Silver, whom I think might be the best at this literally says it's a statistical toss-up just fyi. Harris will almost assuredly win the popular vote (which is just stupid but that's another discussion). The problem for her is Trump has more swing states he is currently favored in then she does. She has to win PA, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Then she has to win Nevada as well. That's assuming she loses NC, GA, and AZ which I think she probably does. I think she wins WI and MI but loses PA and NV but very small margins btw.

IMO, that's why she should have chosen either Kelly from AZ or Shapiro from PA as her VP.

Shapiro should have been the presidential candidate...

 

[millah_22]

Shapiro should have been the presidential candidate...

😬😬😬

Edit: oh wait.. Josh not Ben

 

[srams21]

Shapiro should have been the presidential candidate...

I personally perfer Pete Buttigieg but yea Shapiro would have been good. The good news is Dems have a good bench for 2028 imo. Shapiro, Whitmer, Pete, and several others. However, this will require Rs to certify the election in 2028 and I don't think that will happen.

 

[GOHOX69]

I just don't know what Walz brings to the table.

 

[DirtyJohns97]

Stick to uptown funk.

Don't believe him? Just watch

 

[GOHOX69]

Don't believe him? Just watch

Sure

 

[Rifler]

I just don't know what Walz brings to the table.

Well his "weird" tag line was cute for awhile...