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Bubble News - Iowa Update via Baseball America

Some Q&A from Baseball America and D1Baseball.com regarding Iowa and other B1G teams:

Link: https://d1baseball.com/chats/d1baseball-weekly-chat-may-6/

Q: Iowa in the rankings, which is great....but dropping 8 RPI spots after losing yesterday despite taking the series? Michigan's resume is objectively less impressive, but they're almost certain to get in at this point while Iowa probably won't, especially with the Hawks' schedule the rest of the way. What gives with the numbers here?

Aaron Fitt:
Yeah, that stuff can be frustrating. Obviously, we like Iowa's resume more than Michigan's, that's why we ranked the Hawkeyes this week and not the Wolverines. We value high-end series wins, and Iowa has four nice ones (sweeping Illinois, at Oklahoma State, vs. Nebraska and vs. UC-Irvine). Michigan doesn't have a single series win against anything close to a regional team. But as for the RPI -- Iowa has 12 games against teams outside the Top 200, and those games continue to drag them down. If a bunch of teams you played in February go 0-3 on a weekend in May, it hurts you, even if you have a good weekend against a quality opponent yourself. So you're right, the RPI is really working against Iowa right now. Going to he a fascinating bubble case.

Q: What's your thoughts on Nebraska now, given they keep slumping. Looks like they might not even make the postseason the way they've been playing, especially offensive-wise and their schedule is only going to get tougher.

Aaron Fitt:
Nebraska looked good for our postseason field last week, but you're right, losing a series to Northwestern at this juncture is pretty terrible. The RPI is now down to 47. What that said, the Huskers will have earned a spot in the postseason if they take the series from Arizona State and Michigan, there's no doubt about that. Both of those series are at home, too, so you have to like NU's chances.

Q: What margin of error does Iowa have moving forward with the RPI? Seems they have a regional worthy resume, but RPI is not too kind.

Kendall Rogers:
Little margin for error, but Iowa is going to rank really really well with the RAC (regional advisory committee) and the marquee series wins will certainly look impressive to the committee. Iowa's resume reminds me a lot of Washington last season, who finished at 50 in the RPI but had a strong standing in the Pac-12. Obviously Iowa's RPI is down to 57 after the weekend, so it's not the same, but that's the closest comparison I can think of at the moment.

Q: What are Michigan's chances of hosting a regional?

Kendall Rogers:
Michigan could win the league and have an RPI within range give its opponents the final two weeks of the season. However, it's hard to see them hosting right now with Michigan's overall resume. It just lacks quality wins outside of one game against UCLA. That Big Ten race has captivated me down the stretch.

Q: Regarding the Big Ten, I see Michigan, Illinois, Indiana and Iowa safely in with Nebraska with work to do. Agree? Minnesota got off to a tough start and I don't see RPI bolstering opportunities for them.

Kendall Rogers:
I think you're on the right track. I feel pretty good about the first three, and Iowa as well. Iowa's RPI might not be amazing, but that's a strong resume. Nebraska has some work to do IMO.
 
Link: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2019-college-baseball-top-25-chat-5619/

Q: Is Nebraska out of the tournament for now? Surely their horrible play, especially hitting lately has knocked them out. They have some good non-conference wins but 9 of their 12 Big Ten wins are against the bottom teams. Plus possibly getting swept by Northwestern is pretty sad.

Teddy Cahill:
Nebraska is suddenly looking very bubbly. I wouldn't say out right now, but when we go to put together this week's Field of 64, we'll be taking a longer look at the Huskers. The good news is that it finishes with Arizona State and Michigan, so it can really improve that RPI quickly. The bad news is that those are two pretty good teams, though the Sun Devils come to Lincoln in a bit of a funk.
 
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Now we just need the other Big Ten teams to fall in line and do their part in helping Iowa make the tournament, rather than being asshats seeking "moral victory" signature wins, and we should be good to go! :)
 
As important as winning is, I think its almost (not quite, but close) as important that Nebraska and UCI stay in the top 50 of the RPI.
 
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I am mixed on Nebraska. Yeah them winning helps Iowa a little, but we very well are competing with them for a spot as well.
Agreed, not only for regionals but jockeying for a spot in the Big Ten, at least this weekend is non conf so it's probably go Big Red at least for this weekend.
 
Looking at remaining schedules, Iowa has a shot at the regular season crown. The scenarios aren't too crazy.

Michigan 14-3: vs Indiana, at Nebraska
Indiana 12-6: at Michigan, vs Rutgers
Iowa 11-7: vs MSU, at Maryland
Nebraska 13-8: vs Michigan

Scenario: Iowa 6-0, Mich 2-4 - Iowa 17-7 Mich 16-7

Scenario: Iowa 5-1, Mich 1-5, Ind 4-2, Neb 3-0 - Iowa/Ind/Neb 16-8

Scenario: Iowa 5-1, Mich 1-5, Ind 3-3, Neb 3-0 - Iowa/Neb 16-8

Michigan is 2-5 versus the Top 50 this season so if they hold true to that against Ind and Neb, Iowa could have a shot here.

Minny 11-7 (vs Maryland, at NW) and Illinois 10-8 (vs Pur, at MSU) aren't completely out of the equation either...
 
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