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Bubble scoreboard watching

Part of me thinks this is pointless and the ACC/SEC/Big12 teams will be selected by default and Iowa will be left on the outside looking in. Then part of me thinks those teams' Q1 records are pretty much garbage (under .400), they racked up a bunch of wins against bad teams, and finished under .500 in their conference. Expand the game a little bit and let Iowa, Cal, Indiana State and Ball State in and let them take a shot... The ACC/SEC are already getting half their teams in.

Then while were at it lets push the start of the season back a month and revamp the RPI system!

Watch IU and Maryland make zero effort to get their games in. They should be playing right now. There is no TV or anything to worry about.
 
Maybe already posted, but D1Baseball's updated "at-large ladder"


The bubble is remarkably soft at this time as we await stolen bids to cause the ladder to slide downward. Typically, there are as few as two and as many as six stolen bids in a season. If we assume three this year, that means the bottom three teams in the last five in below would be in trouble.

Finally, here's how we size up the at-large candidates heading into the conference tourney weekend, listed from safest to least safe on our ladder:


NEXT FIVE IN
55. Duke
56. Pittsburgh
57. Indiana State
58. UC-Santa Barbara
59. Indiana

LAST FIVE IN

60. Georgia
61. LSU
62. North Carolina
63. Alabama
64. Long Beach State

FIRST FIVE OUT
65. Louisville
66. Ball State
67. California
68. Iowa
69. Baylor

Bubble Tally
Virginia (W)Baylor (L, L)Kentucky (L)
North Carolina (L)Oklahoma (L)Alabama (W, W, L)
Louisville (W, L)IndianaTulane (W, L)
Pittsburgh (W, L)MarylandUC-Santa Barbara
Duke (W, W)IowaLong Beach State
Clemson (L, W)LSU (L)San Diego (L)
Virginia Tech (L, L)Georgia (W, L, L)California (L)
 
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Look at Long Beach States resume. It’s a joke. Good news is, if they lose even once it’ll bury them. Obviously I am biased, but any of the first five out have better wins and a better resume than LBSU. That’s one I don’t get.
Long Beach's RPI will drop 20-25 spots with a 4 game sweep of UC Davis. 3 wins and a loss will drop them around 35 spots. Best case scenario for them is they end up around the low 90s. They will have played 31 Q4 games... They will be .600+ in conference tho but it looks like the Big West should be a 2 bid league at most...
 
Fairfield continues to win in the losers bracket.
Tennessee is all over Alabama right now 11-0 in the 7th.
Virginia is up 9-0 over #8 ND in the 7th if there was any doubt of them being in.
DBU continues to win in the Valley tourney, hopefully a 1 bid league.
 
Campbell takes our SC Upstate. Need Campbell to win the Big South or they may steal an at large bid.
 
Fairfield down 7-2 in the 8th. Will be interesting to see what the committee does with them.
ECU keeps advancing.
Thanks Nebraska. Go get 2 more.
Ball State rained out today.
 
Fairfield finishes 37-3 and is currently #2 in RPI. They are getting in. This doesn't help those teams trying to fight their way off the wrong side of the bubble.
A very interesting case study. Yes they are #2 in RPI, but against a conference-only schedule. Will be interesting to see how the committee handles/seeds them.
 
Lol @ this, I’d rather they just say due to our resumes we’d rather play one or none. They had ALL day until 6pm EST to get a game in.

 
I hate to be the wet blanket but the ill that ailed Iowa in the two previous weekends (probably PSU as well) was far from cured tonight. The 8 run T8 saw one solid hit by a Hawkeye hitter. One. Uno. Frazier’s single to LF was struck well. The only other hit in T8 was a flair to RF by Fullard that eluded the defense.

If Iowa is going to sweep, the bats have to wake up. Bauman and whoever starts tomorrow are going to need run support and they can’t count on freaking 9 walks in an inning. JFC.
 
Last edited:
I hate to be the wet blanket but the ill that ailed Iowa in the two previous weekends (probably PSU as well) was far from cured tonight. The 8 run T8 saw one solid hit by a Hawkeye hitter. One. Uno. Frazier’s single to LF was struck well. The only other hit in T8 was a flair to RF by Fullard that eluded the defense.

If Iowa is going to sweep, the bats have to wake up. Bauman and whoever starts tomorrow are going to need run support and they can’t count on freaking 9 walks in an inning. JFC.
Iowa’s best hitter made 2 of the outs that inning.
 
VirginiaBaylorKentucky
North CarolinaOklahomaAlabama
LouisvilleIndianaTulane
PittsburghMarylandUCSB
DukeIowaLong Beach State
ClemsonLSUSan Diego
Virginia TechGeorgiaCalifornia
Indiana StateSC UpstateBall State
Mercer/Wofford/SamfordFairfieldECU
Florida AtlanticSouthern IllinoisSDSU

The announcers during Oregon State/Stanford were making the case against 12-17/13-17 SEC teams getting at large bids and for Cal to get in with a .500 PAC12 record. Using that logic Iowa should be a lock going 26-18/25-19 in the B1G, right? ;)

Iowa routed Michigan State. Iowa hasn’t lost a Friday game since March.

Indiana State advances to face DBU. A must win for them IMO.

UNC beat NCST. Cal beat Oregon. San Diego beat Gonzaga. UCSB & Long Beach win.

Tulane and ECU advance in the AAC.

Indiana/Maryland and Ball State postponed.
 
VirginiaBaylorKentucky
North CarolinaOklahomaAlabama
LouisvilleIndianaTulane
PittsburghMarylandUCSB
DukeIowaLong Beach State
ClemsonLSUSan Diego
Virginia TechGeorgiaCalifornia
Indiana StateSC UpstateBall State
Mercer/Wofford/SamfordFairfieldECU
Florida AtlanticSouthern IllinoisSDSU

The announcers during Oregon State/Stanford were making the case against 12-17/13-17 SEC teams getting at large bids and for Cal to get in with a .500 PAC12 record. Using that logic Iowa should be a lock going 26-18/25-19 in the B1G, right? ;)

Iowa routed Michigan State. Iowa hasn’t lost a Friday game since March.

Indiana State advances to face DBU. A must win for them IMO.

UNC beat NCST. Cal beat Oregon. San Diego beat Gonzaga. UCSB & Long Beach win.

Tulane and ECU advance in the AAC.

Indiana/Maryland and Ball State postponed.

I definitely don’t disagree with the logic. I do think each team should be examined, but finishing five or six games under .500 in conference you are saying it doesn’t matter that much.
 
D1Baseball's latest "At-Large Ladder"....updated 10:15 PM (5/28)


Next Five In
55. Duke
56. Indiana State
57. Pittsburgh
58. UC-Santa Barbara
59. North Carolina

Last Five In
60. Fairfield
61. Indiana
62. Georgia
63. LSU
64. Alabama

The Bubble - First Five Out
65. Long Beach State
66. Ball State
67. Kansas State
68. Louisville
69. California
 

Baseball America now has Indiana out of the tournament and has moved Michigan to one of the last four in.

LAST FOUR IN
Alabama
Louisville
Michigan
LSU

FIRST FOUR OUT
Florida Atlantic
Ball State
Long Beach State
Indiana

NEXT FOUR OUT

Wofford
Iowa
South Carolina-Upstate
Baylor
 
What could have been … I’m not convinced that winning 2 of 3 against NW would have Iowa on right side of the bubble. Winning 2 of 3 against both Illini and Wildcats is a different story …
 

Baseball America now has Indiana out of the tournament and has moved Michigan to one of the last four in.

LAST FOUR IN
Alabama
Louisville
Michigan
LSU

FIRST FOUR OUT
Florida Atlantic
Ball State
Long Beach State
Indiana

NEXT FOUR OUT

Wofford
Iowa
South Carolina-Upstate
Baylor

Oh man, the conference is trending to a two bid league? If that happens then I hope some coaches speak out on the stupid decision making regarding the season.
 
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Presbyterian about to win the Big South Tournament unless Campbell puts up a major crooked number in the Bottom 9th. Campbell could get an at large.
 
VirginiaBaylorKentucky
North CarolinaOklahomaAlabama
LouisvilleIndianaTulane
PittsburghMarylandUCSB
DukeIowaLong Beach State
ClemsonLSUSan Diego
Virginia TechGeorgiaCalifornia
Indiana StateSC UpstateBall State
Mercer/Wofford/SamfordFairfield
Florida AtlanticSouthern IllinoisSDSU

Here is the whatsup bubble matrix. Bold teams are in. Strikes out teams are out. Gray teams are firmly on the bubble.
 
VirginiaBaylorKentucky
North CarolinaOklahomaAlabama
LouisvilleIndianaTulane
PittsburghMarylandUCSB
DukeIowaLong Beach State
ClemsonLSUSan Diego
Virginia TechGeorgiaCalifornia
Indiana StateSC UpstateBall State
Mercer/Wofford/SamfordFairfield
Florida AtlanticSouthern IllinoisSDSU

Here is the whatsup bubble matrix. Bold teams are in. Strikes out teams are out. Gray teams are firmly on the bubble.
East Carolina was eliminated in the semis of the AAC Tournament....they will take an at-large bid away
 
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It is BS that Bama, Georgia, and LSU are even in consideration given their conference records. I know the SEC is the best league but if you go 12-17 and are sub-.400 in Q1 games, you’ve proven that you aren’t good enough and don’t deserve an at-large bid.
 
It is BS that Bama, Georgia, and LSU are even in consideration given their conference records. I know the SEC is the best league but if you go 12-17 and are sub-.400 in Q1 games, you’ve proven that you aren’t good enough and don’t deserve an at-large bid.

I agree with your first premise of sub .400 in the conference. I don’t necessarily agree with the quad one record argument.
 
I’m also going full blown conspiracy here. What’s to stop a conference like the MAAC from doing conference only in the future if they know they can consistently get two bids if the RPI goes in their favor and that team doesn’t win the conference tournament.
 
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I agree with your first premise of sub .400 in the conference. I don’t necessarily agree with the quad one record argument.
In baseball it is, or it should be, about winning series. That is why the RPI system is such a majorly flawed system for college baseball because it looks at individual games. If you’re sub .400 against the Q1 opponents, essentially you’re losing every series against good teams. Should LSU be rewarded for going 21-4 against the 126th ranked non-conference schedule? Then 13-17 in conference and 9-15 in Q1 action? I’m not even trying to make a case for Iowa anymore. They lost too many games they shouldn’t have. I’d just like to see them make a metric that ranks the teams better and have some qualifications or guidelines for at large bids like .500+ and/or finish top half of your conference, .400+ against Q1 competition, win more series than you lose, etc. Extra credit should be given for sweeps, sweeps are hard. Arkansas, the clear #1 this season only had 2 sweeps out of 10 tries in conference play.
 
Eliminate the RPI. Winning against bad teams in conference shouldn’t be a negative since teams have no choice but to play those games.
 
Eliminate the RPI. Winning against bad teams in conference shouldn’t be a negative since teams have no choice but to play those games.
Those games count. They should count. You should win those games. You should get credit for winning a series against a 200 RPI team and extra credit for a sweep. Iowa would’ve lost RPI points if they would have went 2-1 this weekend. That shouldn’t happen. That needs to be fixed. They need to fix the RPI or create a baseball specific metric like college basketball did with NET. Hell even have a less impactful formula for midweek games so Iowa doesn’t get killed in the rankings for playing Western Illinois.
 
Those games count. They should count. You should win those games. You should get credit for winning a series against a 200 RPI team and extra credit for a sweep. Iowa would’ve lost RPI points if they would have went 2-1 this weekend. That shouldn’t happen. That needs to be fixed. They need to fix the RPI or create a baseball specific metric like college basketball did with NET. Hell even have a less impactful formula for midweek games so Iowa doesn’t get killed in the rankings for playing Western Illinois.

What was it? Two or three years ago, Iowa takes 2/3 from UC Irvine at home in a top 50 RPI matchup and they lose ground in the RPI. Should never happen.
 
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