Bubble Team Analysis: Conference Tourney Week (Long)

[StormHawk42]

Alright folks, the Hawks keep winning, so let's have a realistic, objective look at where things are. A couple points. First, we can whine about the Minnesota loss and our young team taking its lumps early in the year. I really don't think those things have as much of an effect on things as you guys think they do. And if they do, there's simply no way to quantify it for our purposes. And the team's "trend/momentum" isn't really a factor either. If it was, Iowa probably shouldn't have been a 7 last year. What we have are the numbers. So I'm taking the last 10 or so teams from the different bracket sites (Last 5 in, First 5 out). Because anything above a projected 11 seed at this point is likely a lock. Second, this projection is also presuming that there are no outrageous bid-stealers (dangerous assumption). Let's break it down. It's gonna go like this:

D1 Record/RPI/SOS/1-50(away wins)/51-100/100-200/200+
Conference Tournament: only list the first few games since that will likely be all that matters

USC: 23-8 / 39 / 70 / 2-5(0) / 3-2 / 8-1 / 10-0
Conference Tournament: Washington...UCLA
Analysis: Good RPI, but that's a lot of 200+ games and no top 50 away wins. They're probably in unless they lose to Washington.

Xavier: 19-12 / 34 / 7 / 3-8(1) / 5-3 / 8-1 / 3-0
Conference Tournament: DePaul...Butler
Analysis: Really strong RPI and SOS. Probably close to a lock unless they lose to DePaul

Wake Forest: 18-12 / 30 /12 / 3-9(1) / 6-3 / 4-0 / 5-0
Conference Tournament: BC...Va Tech...Florida St
Analysis: No bad losses and great RPI/SOS. Cmon BC.

Vanderbilt: 17-14 / 45 / 5 / 5-7(2) / 5-6 / 5-0 / 2-1 (hello Mizzou)
Conference Tournament: Texas A&M...Florida
Analysis: No 15 loss team has ever received an at-large, but the SOS and top 50 wins may do it. Probably need to beat A&M though.

Syracuse: 18-13 / 80 / 46 / 6-7 (0)/ 3-3 / 3-2 / 6-1
Conference Tournament: Miami...UNC
Analysis: Lots of home top 50 wins, but the RPI is horrendous. I don't think they belong but I also thought that last year. Michigan State and Syracuse are two teams that will get in on name alone.

Rhode Island: 21-9 / 42 / 61 / 2-3 (1 neutral)/ 2-4 / 11-1 / 6-1
Conference Tournament: UMASS/St Joe/Bonaventure...(likely) Dayton
Analysis: Only 4 top 100 wins. They likely need to beat Dayton to have a shot.

Illinois: 18-13 / 57 / 15 / 5-8 (1 neutral, 1 away) / 6-4 / 1-1 / 5-0
Conference Tournament: Michigan...Purdue
Analysis: I'm still leery of Illinois because they're resume is basically a carbon copy of Iowa's except for, you know, 2 wins against Iowa. Cheer for Michigan big time.

Kansas State: 19-12 / 58 / 49 / 3-8 (2) / 2-2 / 8-2 / 6-0
Conference Tournament: Baylor...(likely) West Virginia
Analysis: Only 5 top 100 wins and meh RPI/SOS. But if they beat Baylor again, they're back in it.

California: 19-11 / 56 / 41 / 1-7 (1) / 3-2 / 9-2 / 6-0
Conference Tournament: Oregon State...Utah...(likely) Oregon
Analysis: Only 1 top 50 win. Woof. I think they need to go through Oregon.

Illinois State: 27-6 / 34 / 139 / 1-2 (0) / 1-2 / 14-1 / 10-1
Conference Tournament: Lost to WSU
Analysis: Lots of wins, but lots of wins no one cares about. I think they gone.

Iowa: 18-13 / 72 / 46 / 5-8(2) / 3-3 / 4-2 / 5-0
Conference Tournament: Indiana...Wisconsin
Analysis: RPI is still low. Lots of top 100 wins though. I think Iowa is fighting with Vandy, URI, KSU, and Illinois for the last spot at this point. Syracuse will likely get in on name alone, especially if they beat Miami.

Takeaway: Iowa is a long shot unless they win at least two games and that may not even be enough depending on what everyone else does. That RPI is low and you have to assume they'll have 14 losses, which is alot. And if Illinois beats Michigan, they may get the nod, despite the Rutgers loss, thanks to the season sweep. Don't shoot the messenger. Just wanted to give an objective, reasonable view. Momentum, Cook's injury, the Minnesota screw job...if anyone can quantify those, I'm all ears.

 

[SotaHawk87]

Thanks for posting! I'm looking for a one stop shop on games to watch at work and who to cheer for!

 

[DanL53]

Syracuse will likely get in on name alone, especially if they beat Miami.

Takeaway: Iowa is a long shot unless they win at least two games and that may not even be enough depending on what everyone else does. That RPI is low and you have to assume they'll have 14 losses, which is alot. And if Illinois beats Michigan, they may get the nod, despite the Rutgers loss, thanks to the season sweep. Don't shoot the messenger. Just wanted to give an objective, reasonable view. Momentum, Cook's injury, the Minnesota screw job...if anyone can quantify those, I'm all ears.

1) If Syracuse gets in due to name recognition than I say everything you mentioned can be quantified under the same assumption that there are unwritten protocols.

2) The NCAA Selection Committee does look at key injuries, that is a written protocol.

3) I've watched basketball for nearly 50 years, and objective and reasonable are not always the case when teams are invited.

4) We've been told the RPI means less this year, and will mean still less next year. This may create separation between what the pundits predict and what actually happens.

But, I think you did a pretty good job.

 

[StormHawk42]

1) If Syracuse gets in due to name recognition than I say everything you mentioned can be quantified under the same assumption that there are unwritten protocols.

2) The NCAA Selection Committee does look at key injuries, that is a written protocol.

3) I've watched basketball for nearly 50 years, and objective and reasonable are not always the case when teams are invited.

4) We've been told the RPI means less this year, and will mean still less next year. This may create separation between what the pundits predict and what actually happens.

But, I think you did a pretty good job.

True about the injuries but we also beat Iowa State without Cook so was the team really that affected? Depends on how deep the committee dives. Also regarding Syracuse, I don't think their resume is good enough personally but they defied all logic when they got in last year so I have a feeling they'll be there this year too.

 

[Underscore2]

Good call on Illinois State. According to some bracketologist's (who rate higher than Lunardi), Illinois State getting blown in their conf championship game = they are out.

 

[soybean]

There are going to be some surprised basketball fans when they discover just how much the RPI has been discounted by the committee. When the announcement was made that they will back off from it as a meaningful metric its like some refuse to accept them at their word. The fact that they make this public pronouncement means that the RPI walkback will be even greater than most expect yet even this year.

 

[DodgerHawki]

Good call on Illinois State. According to some bracketologist's (who rate higher than Lunardi), Illinois State getting blown in their conf championship game = they are out.

Yes their resume is remarkably bad. 3 games (3!) against Top 50 RPI teams. They went 1-2 against Wichita State, that's the extent of the Top 50 teams. They had only 6 games all year against Top 100 RPI teams. Only 6 of their 33 games against Top 100 opponents. And against those Top 100 teams, they went 2-4. Their best non-conference opponent was TCU. This is the epitome of a team that has no resume to get in.

 

[StormHawk42]

The problem is that NCAA said they would use other metrics in the future so no one has any idea what that means. This article came out that day and says that it likely wouldn't be implemented until 2018.

http://www.sbnation.com/college-bas...election-committee-process-rpi-advanced-stats

 

[Hawkeyegrad2006]

Besides palm

Good call on Illinois State. According to some bracketologist's (who rate higher than Lunardi), Illinois State getting blown in their conf championship game = they are out.

Besides Lunardi and Jerry Palm, where also can I find good bracketologists?

 

[StormHawk42]

Besides palm

Besides Lunardi and Jerry Palm, where also can I find good bracketologists?

I really like SB Nations Blogging the Bracket. If you go to Bracket Matrix, they rank all of the known Bracketologists and provide links to most of them. Fwiw, Lunardi ranks 22 and Palm ranks 61 out of 88. Blogging the Bracket is like 12.

 

[Underscore2]

Interesting take on what the selection committee says they consider important. Iowa currently 43rd in the Nitty Gritty Rankings.
http://hoopshd.com/nitty-gritty-rankings/

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

FYI, Xavier lost their PG and has gone 4-6 since (wins over Seton Hall, Creighton, DePaul x2). I think the Big East could lose a team and USC is in more danger than people realize. The cut line is a moving target so if you aren't adding Top 100 wins, you're falling behind.

Of that list, I project Iowa to finish 3rd or 4th by going 1-1. We'll be sweating on Sunday and either be jubilant or get another home game.

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

Looking closer at the list, here is my take on each...

USC - This will test the committee on "conference affiliation". They are only the 4th PAC12 team, but 2 Top 50 wins and 5 Top 100 without much away from home?

Xavier - Not the same team with impressive wins early in the season. Losing their PG really hurts, but they did schedule well and have treaded water since. I would give them the benefit of the doubt unless they lose to DePaul.

Wake - This resume really came together. Not many holes anymore.

Vandy - Did enough because of SOS... barring a loss to A&M.

Cuse - Lowest RPI to make it last year. A loss to Miami would leave them at 85. There's just no way... is there?

Rhode Island - Lacking quality wins. They have to beat Dayton.

Illinois - The main issue is actually that finishing 7th gave us a worse matchup. If we had a game against Michigan, I think 1-1 would do it, but Indiana doesn't carry that weight.

Kansas St - A 3rd Top 50 win and on a neutral court would do wonders, wouldn't be a lock, but I'd think they were > 50%

Cal - Needs a quality win. Which means they need 3 wins. Good luck.

Illinois State - Lacks top wins, but they did win the Valley. I think everyone will be watching for them to understand what the committee is thinking this year.

Iowa - Winning 2 games gives us 6 Top 50 wins, brings our RPI into the 55-60 range (assuming a semis loss). We're into the round of 64 with that. 1-1 leaves us at 65-70. We've got some factors, but it depends if the committee values wins more than metrics this year.

 

[TKingpin]

Don't we also need to root for ( can't believe I am saying this) Notre Dame? Also, Virginia, Seton Hall? Memphis? If UNO won their conference, that would help, too.

Did Michigan fall out of the Top 50? If so, we need to root for them to win a couple of games.

Still ... just win, baby, and everything else gets taken care of.

 

[StormHawk42]

Don't we also need to root for ( can't believe I am saying this) Notre Dame? Also, Virginia, Seton Hall? Memphis? If UNO won their conference, that would help, too.

Did Michigan fall out of the Top 50? If so, we need to root for them to win a couple of games.

Still ... just win, baby, and everything else gets taken care of.

Those teams winning helps. This analysis was done more for stacking up the teams side by side. It won't be completely on what we do. It also matters what everyone else does.

 

[Hawkeyegrad2006]

I really like SB Nations Blogging the Bracket. If you go to Bracket Matrix, they rank all of the known Bracketologists and provide links to most of them. Fwiw, Lunardi ranks 22 and Palm ranks 61 out of 88. Blogging the Bracket is like 12.

THANKS!

 

[StormHawk42]

Bump. Wake plays at 1 pm today. I think they're in even with a loss to BC, but you never know.

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

ACC is off and running - root for upsets today (all bubble teams are favored today)

 

[bravehawks1]

I am confused as to why people are mentioning Cook's injury as something that Iowa should benefit Iowa. That was back in December and he is a true freshman 6 games in to his college career at that point. More relevant would have been losses when Jok was out since that is taking the conference 1st team performer and leading scorer out of the game. Not trying to discredit any analysis, but just not seeing the reason this is included. I think tying for 5th in the conference would be more relevant even though conference is not deemed as strong this year. Believe we need two wins to feel comfortable on Sunday,otherwise there are too many moving parts out of our control to hope they all fall in favor of Iowa.

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

1) Because our "bad losses" are Memphis on a neutral court (with Cook - but I believe he was injured at that point) and vs UNO when Cook was out.
2) I don't think we lost with Jok officially OUT. He played through injuries and we lost some games, but you don't get credit for that. We went 2-0 without Jok.
3) The committee has said that they take injuries to key players into consideration - which would appear to apply and be a saving grace to boost our profile.

 

[SotaHawk87]

Didn't Iowa beat Iowa state without cook though?? Kind of kills the argument..

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

I think the argument is that you are always better with your best players. So losses get discounted some with key players injured. Perhaps we beat Iowa State by 50 with Cook...

I don't pretend to understand how the committee discusses injuries, but they've commented that they take it into account, so people here are discussing it.

 

[Pepperman]

I don't pretend to understand how the committee discusses injuries, but they've commented that they take it into account, so people here are discussing it.

And because the committee claims to take it into consideration, Hawk fans need to be talking about it as much as possible. I don't mean on this board, but just in general, in tweets, in newspaper articles, etc.

 

[Hawkeyegrad2006]

I think Clemson is a team to worry about. They are similar to us in many ways but in some ways arguably stronger: Current RPI after today's win is 66. 4 top 50 RPI wins and 5-2 vs 51-100. Their worst lose is a to Oklahoma on a neutral court (RPI 150) and their worst home loss is to Syracuse (RPI 80) Has wins at South Carolina (RPI 32) and at Wake Forest (RPI 34) and a home win also against wake and home against UNC Wilmington (RPI 25). They're now 17-14. That's plenty of losses, but no terrible losses and their worst loss at home could be to a tourney team (Syracuse). Granted no crazy signature wins either home or away either. Tough case.

Looking closer at the list, here is my take on each...

USC - This will test the committee on "conference affiliation". They are only the 4th PAC12 team, but 2 Top 50 wins and 5 Top 100 without much away from home?

Xavier - Not the same team with impressive wins early in the season. Losing their PG really hurts, but they did schedule well and have treaded water since. I would give them the benefit of the doubt unless they lose to DePaul.

Wake - This resume really came together. Not many holes anymore.

Vandy - Did enough because of SOS... barring a loss to A&M.

Cuse - Lowest RPI to make it last year. A loss to Miami would leave them at 85. There's just no way... is there?

Rhode Island - Lacking quality wins. They have to beat Dayton.

Illinois - The main issue is actually that finishing 7th gave us a worse matchup. If we had a game against Michigan, I think 1-1 would do it, but Indiana doesn't carry that weight.

Kansas St - A 3rd Top 50 win and on a neutral court would do wonders, wouldn't be a lock, but I'd think they were > 50%

Cal - Needs a quality win. Which means they need 3 wins. Good luck.

Illinois State - Lacks top wins, but they did win the Valley. I think everyone will be watching for them to understand what the committee is thinking this year.

Iowa - Winning 2 games gives us 6 Top 50 wins, brings our RPI into the 55-60 range (assuming a semis loss). We're into the round of 64 with that. 1-1 leaves us at 65-70. We've got some factors, but it depends if the committee values wins more than metrics this year.

 

[StormHawk42]

Pimping my own thread because I spent time on it haha. Syracuse is down to 85 RPI. Woof.