Bubble Watch

whatsup13579er

HR Legend
Gold Member
Oct 13, 2015
15,192
26,575
113
I’ll try to keep track of the bubble teams according to D1 and BA’s projections.
*Last 4 in BA
^Last 4 in D1

*Iowa 25-14 (10-5) 76 RPI
*Florida 26-18 (8-13) 20 RPI
*Wake Forest 32-13 (10-11) 25 RPI
*^San Diego 27-16 (13-8) 49 RPI
^Pittsburgh 24-18 (10-10) 59 RPI
^Louisiana Tech 32-15 (14-7) 37 RPI
^Louisiana 25-17 (14-7) 46 RPI

Tulane 28-17-1 (9-6) 51 RPI
Alabama 25-20 (9-12) 48 RPI
Coastal Carolina 26-15-1 (13-7-1) 54 RPI
UTSA 30-15 (14-7) 55 RPI
Illinois 22-19 (12-6) 69 RPI
North Carolina 25-17 (8-13) 34 RPI
Mid Tenn State 23-19 (12-9) 56 RPI
South Carolina 23-20 (9-12) 64 RPI

Couple thoughts:

SEC: Alabama finishes with a brutal schedule and South Carolina's RPI is way too high to be seriously considered as an SEC at large. Florida has some winnable series coming up that should help get their conference record closer to .500 and with their RPI they will be in. That gives SEC 8 teams in.

ACC: UNC swept Pitt this season. If UNC gets their conference record closer to .500, they are probably in. Their schedule finishes very tough as does Pitt's. If Pitt finds a way to in their ND or GT series, that might be enough to get them in. WF also has a tough last 3 series to end the year. Pitt's RPI is probably too high to get in for a southern team. Hopefully they all finish around .400 in conference and the ACC only gets 8 teams in as well.

There isn't much separating (0.008) the MVC, Sun Belt, Conf USA, B1G, AAC, and WCC in the RPI ranks. Whereas 0.027 separates #4 PAC12 from #5MVC and 0.0100 separates #10WCC from #11 SOCON.
MVC: Could be a 1 bid league if Dallas Baptist beats Evansville next week and wins the MVC tourney. Root for the Purple Aces to stumble.
Sun Belt: This will be a conference race to keep your eye on. They have 8 teams in the top 80 of the RPI. Right now they are a 3 bid league.
Conf USA: Right now a 2 bid league and IMO La Tech is pretty solidly in. Root against UTSA and MTSU.
AAC: Could also be a 1 bid league, especially if E Carolina wins the tourney. Root against Tulane.
WWC: Probably a 2 bid league, especially is SD wins their series against Gonzaga. Root against SD.

B1G: Iowa is going to be the highest RPI team if they get in. Tuesday's loss really hurt in that regard. They can help themselves by getting as close to 60 as possible, finishing 2nd or 3rd in the B1G, and they need to finish closer to Rutger/Maryland than Illinois/Michigan. I think Iowa grouping themselves with Rutger/Maryland is going to be the most important for Iowa and making the B1G a 3 bid league when looking at the other bubble teams and how they sit in their conferences. If Iowa, Illinois, and Michigan all finish on a run and essentially tie for 2nd place at 17-7 or 16-8 (above .650), the B1G could have as good of a case as anyone to be a 5 bid league.

TL;DR: Root for Iowa to win and other bubble teams to lose.
 

AuroraHawk

HR Heisman
Dec 18, 2004
6,127
7,847
113
B1G: Iowa is going to be the highest RPI team if they get in. Tuesday's loss really hurt in that regard. They can help themselves by getting as close to 60 as possible, finishing 2nd or 3rd in the B1G, and they need to finish closer to Rutger/Maryland than Illinois/Michigan. I think Iowa grouping themselves with Rutger/Maryland is going to be the most important for Iowa and making the B1G a 3 bid league when looking at the other bubble teams and how they sit in their conferences. If Iowa, Illinois, and Michigan all finish on a run and essentially tie for 2nd place at 17-7 or 16-8 (above .650), the B1G could have as good of a case as anyone to be a 5 bid league.

TL;DR: Root for Iowa to win and other bubble teams to lose.

The B1G Baseball Podcast I previously referenced (had a guest from d1 Baseball) offered a different analysis. Concluded that "parity" likely hurts the B1G's chances to get more teams into the NCAA tournament.

Can someone remind me . . . does performance in the B1G tournament impact RPI? The Warren Nolan site suggests that it does not. Maybe making the final game of the tournament (which would mean a record of no worse than 3-2 for the entire tournament) would be enough to bolster at-large chances. Having an opportunity to knock off one of the likely leaders (Maryland / Rutgers) during the tournament would be best.
 

whatsup13579er

HR Legend
Gold Member
Oct 13, 2015
15,192
26,575
113
The B1G Baseball Podcast I previously referenced (had a guest from d1 Baseball) offered a different analysis. Concluded that "parity" likely hurts the B1G's chances to get more teams into the NCAA tournament.
I don't think it will happen but if the MVC, AAC, and WCC all become 1 bid leagues, those 3-4 spots will have to be filled somewhere. Likely you'd be left with B1G bubble teams that went .667 in conference and 60s in the RPI versus Sun Belt teams with similar resumes versus SEC/ACC teams that finished .430 in conference but better RPIs. The good news is the picture gets clearer each week.

Can someone remind me . . . does performance in the B1G tournament impact RPI? The Warren Nolan site suggests that it does not. Maybe making the final game of the tournament (which would mean a record of no worse than 3-2 for the entire tournament) would be enough to bolster at-large chances. Having an opportunity to knock off one of the likely leaders (Maryland / Rutgers) during the tournament would be best.
IIRC those games to count against RPI but there is less movement since they are neutral site games and most of the hay is already in the barn.
 

AuroraHawk

HR Heisman
Dec 18, 2004
6,127
7,847
113
Florida won a road game at Mississippi State last night.

San Diego won a road game against Pacific.

Tulane lost a home game to Cincinnati.

Louisiana won a home game against UTA.

La Tech lost a home game to Florida Atlantic.

Alabama lost a home game to LSU.

Coastal Carolina won a home game against Little Rock.

UTSA won a home game against Marshall.

Middle Tennessee lost road game to FIU.

South Carolina lost road game to Texas A&M.
 

whatsup13579er

HR Legend
Gold Member
Oct 13, 2015
15,192
26,575
113
After watching Iowa strike out 3 consecutive times after putting runners on 2nd and 3rd with no outs in the 6th, I’m not sure this team deserves a bid. Absolutely pathetic situational hitting.

Since then Iowa has completely imploded with several wild pitches and suddenly no one can catch a ball in RF.
 
Feb 25, 2008
51,344
23,869
113
After watching Iowa strike out 3 consecutive times after putting runners on 2nd and 3rd with no outs in the 6th, I’m not sure this team deserves a bid. Absolutely pathetic situational hitting.

Since then Iowa has completely imploded with several wild pitches and suddenly no one can catch a ball in RF.
B(usiness) A(s) U(sual)
 

whatsup13579er

HR Legend
Gold Member
Oct 13, 2015
15,192
26,575
113
Updating after this weekend's games:

*Florida 3-0 this weekend to 29-18 (11-13) 12 RPI (-8 this week)
*Wake Forest 1-1-1 this weekend to 33-14-1 (11-12-1) 23 RPI (-2 this week)
*^San Diego 3-0 this weekend to 30-16 (16-8) 48 RPI (-1 this week)
--------------
*Iowa 2-1 this weekend to 27-15 (12-6) 70 RPI (-6 this week)
^Louisiana 3-0 this weekend to 28-17 (17-7) 53 RPI (+6 this week)
Coastal Carolina 3-0 this weekend to 29-15-1 (16-7-1) 45 RPI (-9 this week)
North Carolina 2-1 this weekend to 27-18 (10-14) 27 RPI (-7 this week)
UTSA 2-1 this weekend to 32-16 (16-8) 54 RPI (-1 this week)
--------------
^Pittsburgh 2-1 this weekend to 26-19 (12-11) 59 RPI (0 this week)
^Louisiana Tech 1-2 this weekend to 33-17 (15-9) 50 RPI (+11 this week)
Tulane 1-2 this weekend to 29-19-1 (10-8) 65 RPI (+14 this week)
Alabama 1-2 this weekend to 26-22 (10-14) 55 RPI (+7 this week)
Illinois 3-0 this weekend to 25-19 (12-6) 76 RPI (+7 this week)
Mid Tenn State 2-1 this weekend to 25-20 (14-10) 51 RPI (-5 this week)
South Carolina 1-2 this weekend to 24-22 (10-14) 67 RPI (+2 this week)

Whatsup's Officially Unofficial Bubble Update:
Solidly In: Florida, WF, SD
Firmly on the bubble: Iowa, Louisiana, Coastal Carolina, *UNC, UTSA
Wrong side of the bubble: Pitt, La Tech, Tulane, Bama, Illinois, MTST, USC

*UNC swept both Coastal and Pitt. WF at UNC this weekend.
 
  • Like
Reactions: BigOHawk

whatsup13579er

HR Legend
Gold Member
Oct 13, 2015
15,192
26,575
113
*Last 4 In BA, ^Last 4 In D1

Teams safely in a bracket
Florida 29-18 (11-13) 12 RPI
Coastal Carolina 29-15-1 (16-7-1) 45 RPI

^San Diego 30-16 (16-8) 48 RPI
*Wake Forest 33-14-1 (11-12-1) 23 RPI
*UCLA 38-18 (14-10) 66 RPI
In BA/Out D1 - Old Dominion 31-15 (13-11) 55 RPI

Last 4 In
*^Louisiana Tech 33-17 (15-9) 50 RPI
*Iowa 27-15 (12-6) 72 RPI
^North Carolina 27-18 (10-14) 27 RPI
^Louisiana 28-17 (17-7) 53 RPI

First 4/8 Out
Pittsburgh 26-19 (12-11) 59 RPI
Kentucky 26-21 (9-15) 58 RPI
Keennesaw State 28-21 (15-9) 46 RPI
Clemson 31-18 (9-14) 23 RPI
UTSA 32-16 (16-8) 54 RPI
Alabama 26-22 (10-14) 55 RPI

Off the bubble
Tulane 29-19-1 (10-8) 65 RPI
Illinois 25-19 (12-6) 76 RPI
Mid Tenn State 25-20 (14-10) 51 RPI
South Carolina 24-22 (10-14) 67 RPI


Florida and Coastal Carolina are off of bubble watch unless they stumble and show up again next week. Same for the off the bubble teams. I don’t think Alabama and Kentucky are serious bubble teams with RPIs in the 50s from the SEC. Clemson can play their way into this thing if they win at #9 UVA (15) this weekend. Same for Pitt at #14 ND (11). WF goes to UNC.

BA still likes Iowa enough to keep them in and D1 thinks Iowa can be in if they win their last 2 series’s. It would be great if the ACC/SEC could knock these bubble teams out of their misery this weekend. D1 has an article out that the lack of quality bubble teams from the SEC benefits the mid majors this year, including the B1G. Iowa just needs to keep chipping away at the RPI.
 
  • Like
Reactions: AuroraHawk

whatsup13579er

HR Legend
Gold Member
Oct 13, 2015
15,192
26,575
113
*Last 4 In BA, ^Last 4 In D1

Teams safely in a bracket
Florida 29-18 (11-13) 12 RPI
Coastal Carolina 29-15-1 (16-7-1) 45 RPI

^San Diego 30-16 (16-8) 48 RPI
*Wake Forest 33-14-1 (11-12-1) 23 RPI
*UCLA 38-18 (14-10) 66 RPI
In BA/Out D1 - Old Dominion 31-15 (13-11) 55 RPI

Last 4 In
*^Louisiana Tech 33-17 (15-9) 50 RPI
*Iowa 27-15 (12-6) 72 RPI
^North Carolina 27-18 (10-14) 27 RPI
^Louisiana 28-17 (17-7) 53 RPI

First 4/8 Out
Pittsburgh 26-19 (12-11) 59 RPI
Kentucky 26-21 (9-15) 58 RPI
Keennesaw State 28-21 (15-9) 46 RPI
Clemson 31-18 (9-14) 23 RPI
UTSA 32-16 (16-8) 54 RPI
Alabama 26-22 (10-14) 55 RPI

Off the bubble
Tulane 29-19-1 (10-8) 65 RPI
Illinois 25-19 (12-6) 76 RPI
Mid Tenn State 25-20 (14-10) 51 RPI
South Carolina 24-22 (10-14) 67 RPI


Florida and Coastal Carolina are off of bubble watch unless they stumble and show up again next week. Same for the off the bubble teams. I don’t think Alabama and Kentucky are serious bubble teams with RPIs in the 50s from the SEC. Clemson can play their way into this thing if they win at #9 UVA (15) this weekend. Same for Pitt at #14 ND (11). WF goes to UNC.

BA still likes Iowa enough to keep them in and D1 thinks Iowa can be in if they win their last 2 series’s. It would be great if the ACC/SEC could knock these bubble teams out of their misery this weekend. D1 has an article out that the lack of quality bubble teams from the SEC benefits the mid majors this year, including the B1G. Iowa just needs to keep chipping away at the RPI.
Remember BA’s bracket is a projection on what they think is going to happen. I think D1’s is more of a if the season finishes today bracket.
 
  • Like
Reactions: HawkeyeGenius

whatsup13579er

HR Legend
Gold Member
Oct 13, 2015
15,192
26,575
113
*Last 4 In BA, ^Last 4 In D1

Teams safely in a bracket
Florida 29-18 (11-13) 12 RPI
Coastal Carolina 29-15-1 (16-7-1) 45 RPI

^San Diego 30-16 (16-8) 48 RPI
*Wake Forest 33-14-1 (11-12-1) 23 RPI
*UCLA 38-18 (14-10) 66 RPI
In BA/Out D1 - Old Dominion 31-15 (13-11) 55 RPI

Last 4 In
*^Louisiana Tech 33-17 (15-9) 50 RPI
*Iowa 27-15 (12-6) 72 RPI
^North Carolina 27-18 (10-14) 27 RPI
^Louisiana 28-17 (17-7) 53 RPI

First 4/8 Out
Pittsburgh 26-19 (12-11) 59 RPI
Kentucky 26-21 (9-15) 58 RPI
Keennesaw State 28-21 (15-9) 46 RPI
Clemson 31-18 (9-14) 23 RPI
UTSA 32-16 (16-8) 54 RPI
Alabama 26-22 (10-14) 55 RPI

Off the bubble
Tulane 29-19-1 (10-8) 65 RPI
Illinois 25-19 (12-6) 76 RPI
Mid Tenn State 25-20 (14-10) 51 RPI
South Carolina 24-22 (10-14) 67 RPI


Florida and Coastal Carolina are off of bubble watch unless they stumble and show up again next week. Same for the off the bubble teams. I don’t think Alabama and Kentucky are serious bubble teams with RPIs in the 50s from the SEC. Clemson can play their way into this thing if they win at #9 UVA (15) this weekend. Same for Pitt at #14 ND (11). WF goes to UNC.

BA still likes Iowa enough to keep them in and D1 thinks Iowa can be in if they win their last 2 series’s. It would be great if the ACC/SEC could knock these bubble teams out of their misery this weekend. D1 has an article out that the lack of quality bubble teams from the SEC benefits the mid majors this year, including the B1G. Iowa just needs to keep chipping away at the RPI.
A couple of more thoughts:

SEC: Right now the SEC has 8 teams in. Hopefully those 8 take care of business down the stretch and don't give the bubble teams any resume builders. RPIs in the 50s and under .500 isn't going to get it done.

ACC: Right now they have 8 teams in as well. GT could play their way onto the bubble if they don't take care of business at Pitt but they have 16 Q1 wins. UNC took a nice series from NCST. Hopefully WF and FSU can take care of business and knock them off the bubble. UNC and Clemson have very strange resumes at the moment. They need to improve their conference record to feel good.

MVC: Could be a 1 bid league if Dallas Baptist wins the MVC tourney. Evansville currently has 0 Q1 wins and if their RPI ends up tanking, it could be hard to justify as the regular season champ. They are only 1 game ahead of Southern Illinois who is 4-1 in Q1 games and has a better resume but 80 RPI. Root for both of them to stumble and DBU to take the autobid.
Sun Belt: Right now they are a 3/4 bid league. Louisiana has a huge series at #19 Texas State (37) this weekend. They win that and they could put themselves on the right side of the bubble. Iowa needs to catch them in the RPI.
Conf USA: Don't look now but Conf USA has several bubble candidates. UTSA, MTST, ODU, and LA TECH are all fighting for conference position and in the 50s of the RPI. These are the teams Iowa needs to catch up to in the RPI. Right now they are a 2/3 bid league.
AAC: Tulane has fallen off the bubble for the moment. Hope this is a 1 bid league and ECU to win the autobid.
WWC: Barring a Gonzaga sweep of SD this weekend, probably a 2 bid leave.

B1G: Iowa is going to be the highest RPI team if they get in unless they make a helluva season ending run. Separating themselves from Illinois the last 2 weeks is what they need to do. Getting tied with Maryland for 2nd in the B1G would be huge. A 3 way tie for 1st with Maryland/Rutger would be even better. Right now the predictor has Iowa finishing 33-16 (17-7) 57 RPI. Maryland and Ruter finishing 18-6 and Illinois 14-10. That's exactly what Iowa needs.
 

HawkeyeGenius

HR All-American
Gold Member
Nov 25, 2021
3,427
4,465
113
A couple of more thoughts:

SEC: Right now the SEC has 8 teams in. Hopefully those 8 take care of business down the stretch and don't give the bubble teams any resume builders. RPIs in the 50s and under .500 isn't going to get it done.

ACC: Right now they have 8 teams in as well. GT could play their way onto the bubble if they don't take care of business at Pitt but they have 16 Q1 wins. UNC took a nice series from NCST. Hopefully WF and FSU can take care of business and knock them off the bubble. UNC and Clemson have very strange resumes at the moment. They need to improve their conference record to feel good.

MVC: Could be a 1 bid league if Dallas Baptist wins the MVC tourney. Evansville currently has 0 Q1 wins and if their RPI ends up tanking, it could be hard to justify as the regular season champ. They are only 1 game ahead of Southern Illinois who is 4-1 in Q1 games and has a better resume but 80 RPI. Root for both of them to stumble and DBU to take the autobid.
Sun Belt: Right now they are a 3/4 bid league. Louisiana has a huge series at #19 Texas State (37) this weekend. They win that and they could put themselves on the right side of the bubble. Iowa needs to catch them in the RPI.
Conf USA: Don't look now but Conf USA has several bubble candidates. UTSA, MTST, ODU, and LA TECH are all fighting for conference position and in the 50s of the RPI. These are the teams Iowa needs to catch up to in the RPI. Right now they are a 2/3 bid league.
AAC: Tulane has fallen off the bubble for the moment. Hope this is a 1 bid league and ECU to win the autobid.
WWC: Barring a Gonzaga sweep of SD this weekend, probably a 2 bid leave.

B1G: Iowa is going to be the highest RPI team if they get in unless they make a helluva season ending run. Separating themselves from Illinois the last 2 weeks is what they need to do. Getting tied with Maryland for 2nd in the B1G would be huge. A 3 way tie for 1st with Maryland/Rutger would be even better. Right now the predictor has Iowa finishing 33-16 (17-7) 57 RPI. Maryland and Ruter finishing 18-6 and Illinois 14-10. That's exactly what Iowa needs.
Iowa's nemesis Wichita State beats Tulane.
 
  • Like
Reactions: AuroraHawk

whatsup13579er

HR Legend
Gold Member
Oct 13, 2015
15,192
26,575
113
Results from the week:

*Last 4 In BA, ^Last 4 In D1

Teams safely in a bracket
Florida 29-18 (11-13) 12 RPI
Coastal Carolina 29-15-1 (16-7-1) 45 RPI

^San Diego 1-0 to 31-16 (16-8) 46 RPI
*Wake Forest 2-2 to 35-16-1 (12-14-1) 21 RPI
*UCLA 3-1 to 33-18 (17-10) 62 RPI
In BA/Out D1 - Old Dominion 3-2 to 34-15 (16-11) 50 RPI

Last 4 In
*^Louisiana Tech 3-0 to 36-17 (18-9) 54 RPI
*Iowa 2-1 to 29-16 (14-7) 67 RPI
^North Carolina 4-1 to 31-19 (12-15) 27 RPI
^Louisiana 2-3 to 30-20 (17-10) 56 RPI

First 4/8 Out
Pittsburgh 1-3 to 27-22 (13-13) 55 RPI
Kentucky 1-2 to 27-23 (10-17) 60 RPI
Keennesaw State 3-1 30-22 (17-10) 52 RPI
Clemson 1-3 to 3-20 (10-16) 22 RPI
UTSA 1-2 to 33-18 (17-10) 47 RPI
Alabama 1-2 to 27-24 (10-16) 53 RPI


Off the bubble
Tulane 30-22-1 (10-11) 83 RPI
Illinois 27-20 (14-7) 82 RPI

Mid Tenn State 4-0 to 29-20 (17-10) 49 RPI
South Carolina 26-24 (12-115) 69 RPI

Whatsup's Officially Unofficial Bubble Update:
Solidly In: Florida, Coastal Carolina, SD, UCLA
Firmly on the bubble: *UNC, La Tech, WF, ODU, ||| Iowa, UTSA, MTST, Louisiana, Kenn St
Bubbles burst: Pitt, Tulane, Bama, Illinois, USC, Kentucky, Clemson, Alabama

*UNC swept both Coastal and Pitt and won the WF series this weekend. They are at the top of the ACC bubble

Conference USA is really interesting. They have 4 bubble teams that are nearly identical. La Tech and ODU get the nod from me for now.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ssckelley

BigOHawk

HR All-American
Oct 27, 2001
3,404
3,838
113
Omaha, NE
Great write up and details! Iowa is at 30 wins now, correct? I think Warren Nolan has them at 29 as well not sure if that's impacting RPI or not.
 

whatsup13579er

HR Legend
Gold Member
Oct 13, 2015
15,192
26,575
113
Results from the week:

*Last 4 In BA, ^Last 4 In D1

Teams safely in a bracket
Florida 29-18 (11-13) 12 RPI
Coastal Carolina 29-15-1 (16-7-1) 45 RPI

^San Diego 1-0 to 31-16 (16-8) 46 RPI
*Wake Forest 2-2 to 35-16-1 (12-14-1) 21 RPI
*UCLA 3-1 to 33-18 (17-10) 62 RPI
In BA/Out D1 - Old Dominion 3-2 to 34-15 (16-11) 50 RPI

Last 4 In
*^Louisiana Tech 3-0 to 36-17 (18-9) 54 RPI
*Iowa 2-1 to 29-16 (14-7) 67 RPI
^North Carolina 4-1 to 31-19 (12-15) 27 RPI
^Louisiana 2-3 to 30-20 (17-10) 56 RPI

First 4/8 Out
Pittsburgh 1-3 to 27-22 (13-13) 55 RPI
Kentucky 1-2 to 27-23 (10-17) 60 RPI
Keennesaw State 3-1 30-22 (17-10) 52 RPI
Clemson 1-3 to 3-20 (10-16) 22 RPI
UTSA 1-2 to 33-18 (17-10) 47 RPI
Alabama 1-2 to 27-24 (10-16) 53 RPI


Off the bubble
Tulane 30-22-1 (10-11) 83 RPI
Illinois 27-20 (14-7) 82 RPI

Mid Tenn State 4-0 to 29-20 (17-10) 49 RPI
South Carolina 26-24 (12-115) 69 RPI
Ole Miss 31-19 (13-14) 38 RPI

Whatsup's Officially Unofficial Bubble Update:
Solidly In: Florida, Coastal Carolina, SD, UCLA
Firmly on the bubble: *UNC, La Tech, WF, ODU, Ole Miss ||| Iowa, UTSA, MTST, Louisiana, Kenn St
Bubbles burst: Pitt, Tulane, Bama, Illinois, USC, Kentucky, Clemson, Alabama

*UNC swept both Coastal and Pitt and won the WF series this weekend. They are at the top of the ACC bubble

Conference USA is really interesting. They have 4 bubble teams that are nearly identical. La Tech and ODU get the nod from me for now.
Edited to add Ole Miss. They likely played their way from not even on the bubble to pretty safely in by winning at #16 S Miss (20 RPI) and swept #24 LSU (37) in Baton Rouge this week. The Rebels are now 31-19 (13-14) and up to 38 in the RPI.

As I was posting this, Ole miss cancelled their midweek game at Arkansas State 11-35, 228 RPI....
 
  • Haha
Reactions: HawkeyeGenius

AuroraHawk

HR Heisman
Dec 18, 2004
6,127
7,847
113
Edited to add Ole Miss. They likely played their way from not even on the bubble to pretty safely in by winning at #16 S Miss (20 RPI) and swept #24 LSU (37) in Baton Rouge this week. The Rebels are now 31-19 (13-14) and up to 38 in the RPI.

As I was posting this, Ole miss cancelled their midweek game at Arkansas State 11-35, 228 RPI....

Gotta make sure that the SEC gets 10 or 11 teams into the 64 team field.
 

HawkeyeGenius

HR All-American
Gold Member
Nov 25, 2021
3,427
4,465
113
Edited to add Ole Miss. They likely played their way from not even on the bubble to pretty safely in by winning at #16 S Miss (20 RPI) and swept #24 LSU (37) in Baton Rouge this week. The Rebels are now 31-19 (13-14) and up to 38 in the RPI.

As I was posting this, Ole miss cancelled their midweek game at Arkansas State 11-35, 228 RPI....
I've seen enough with cancellations for RPI purposes, because that's what it is. That alone tells you how flawed it is when games get cancelled due to it. It's time to reevaluate RPI.
 

whatsup13579er

HR Legend
Gold Member
Oct 13, 2015
15,192
26,575
113
Iowa just canceled game with UIC. From a RPI standpoint - makes total sense. But at a cost of developing younger players.
I think gaining a possible 20 points for the win would be more valuable at this point and worth the ‘risk’ of losing. Iowa needs wins to add to their RPI total. UIC would have been a fine game. Maybe there’s some other underlying issue?
 

whatsup13579er

HR Legend
Gold Member
Oct 13, 2015
15,192
26,575
113
Gotta make sure that the SEC gets 10 or 11 teams into the 64 team field.
I get what you’re saying and most of the SEC teams that are on the bubble have no business being there. However, what Ole Miss has done the past two weeks is pretty incredible. Iowa never seems to have the chance to make a statement series win down the stretch to solidify their resume. It would be great to have Maryland on the schedule this week instead of another 100+ RPI, middling B1G team…
 

BigOHawk

HR All-American
Oct 27, 2001
3,404
3,838
113
Omaha, NE
I think gaining a possible 20 points for the win would be more valuable at this point and worth the ‘risk’ of losing. Iowa needs wins to add to their RPI total. UIC would have been a fine game. Maybe there’s some other underlying issue?
Maybe the quick turnaround and thrown off normal routine with a Tuesday midweek and Thursday series vs a Wed midweek and Friday series? Or trying to keep team and arms as fresh as possible?
 

whatsup13579er

HR Legend
Gold Member
Oct 13, 2015
15,192
26,575
113
*Last 4 In BA, ^Last 4 In D1

Teams safely in a bracket
Florida 33-19 (13-14) 13 RPI
Coastal Carolina 34-16-1 (19-7-1) 27 RPI
Ole Miss 31-19 (13-14) 38 RPI
UCLA 33-19 (17-10) 65 RPI

Louisiana Tech 36-17 (18-9) 54 RPI
^Georgia Tech 30-21 (12-15) 25 RPI
*San Diego 31-16 (16-8) 46 RPI
*North Carolina 31-19 (12-15) 22 RPI

Last 4 In
*Iowa 29-16 (14-7) 66 RPI
^UTSA 33-18 (17-10) 45 RPI
*^Clemson 32-21 (10-16) 22 RPI
^Old Dominion 35-15 (16-11) 51 RPI

First 4/8 Out
Wake Forest 36-16-1 (12-14-1) 20 RPI
Mercer 38-14 (11-7) 46 RPI
Mid Tenn State 29-21 (17-10) 47 RPI
Louisiana 31-20 (17-10) 55 RPI
Keennesaw State 30-23 (17-10) 52 RPI
Pittsburgh 27-23 (13-13) 55 RPI
Alabama 27-24 (10-16) 53 RPI


Off the bubble
Kentucky 28-23 (10-17) 56 RPI
Tulane 30-22-1 (10-11) 81 RPI
Illinois 27-20 (14-7) 80 RPI
South Carolina 26-25 (12-15) 71 RPI


D1 appears to be relying heavily on RPI whereas BA is looking more at resume and key wins.

As I projected, Ole Miss went from not even on the bubble to safely in the bracket in a week after their stellar week. UCLA being safely in at 65 RPI is great for Iowa IMO.

BA does not like Conference USA and has them as a 2 bid league with UTSA and ODU out and no mention of MTST. Conversely, D1 has UTSA and ODU in with MTST in the first 4 out.

The ACC is a filling up the bubble. Clemson being one of the last teams in at 10-16 in conference play is baffling to me. WF has played itself out at this point and GT could play themselves out this weekend as well. Clemson needs a sweep of BC this weekend, a loss could drop them into the 30s of the RPI and off the bubble. WF probably need to take the series at NCST or their conference record will be very weak. Same with GT at Pitt. Pitt winning is probably good for Iowa because their RPI isn't good enough for an ACC team and it would make GT very vulnerable. UNC may be in the same boat against FSU too. Having all these teams end up around .400 in conference is probably good for Iowa if the Hawks can finish .667 or .708 in conference.
 

BigOHawk

HR All-American
Oct 27, 2001
3,404
3,838
113
Omaha, NE
If there was ever time for a sweep Hawks let's do it this weekend!

Interesting Baseball America has Iowa in field at team# 61, whereas D1Baseball has Iowa somewhere outside team #65.
 

KyleHuesmann

HR All-American
Gold Member
Apr 14, 2021
3,730
5,880
113
Here is your rooting guide for the weekend…

Iowa over Indiana

Wichita St over USF
CMU over Toledo
George Mason over Davidson
EIU over Southeast Missouri
Penn St over Illinois
NC St over Wake Forest
Liberty over Kennesaw St
Louisiana Tech over Charlotte
North Florida over FGCU
FSU over UNC
Pitt 2/3 vs GTech
WKU over Old Dominion
Boston College over Clemson
Kansas St over West Virginia
Fordham over VCU
Auburn over Kentucky
UAB over UTSA
Little Rock over Louisiana
Southern Miss over MTSU
Florida over S Carolina
Arkansas over Alabama
Texas A&M over Ole Miss
Memphis over Tulane
TTech over Oklahoma
Oregon St over UCLA
Samford over Mercer

Some obviously matter more than others, but this is all of them.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: whatsup13579er

BigOHawk

HR All-American
Oct 27, 2001
3,404
3,838
113
Omaha, NE
Here is your rooting guide for the weekend…

Iowa over Indiana

Wichita St over USF
CMU over Toledo
George Mason over Davidson
EIU over Southeast Missouri
Penn St over Illinois
NC St over Wake Forest
Liberty over Kennesaw St
Louisiana Tech over Charlotte
North Florida over FGCU
FSU over UNC
Pitt 2/3 vs GTech
WKU over Old Dominion
Boston College over Clemson
Kansas St over West Virginia
Fordham over VCU
Auburn over Kentucky
UAB over UTSA
Little Rock over Louisiana
Southern Miss over MTSU
Florida over S Carolina
Arkansas over Alabama
Texas A&M over Ole Miss
Memphis over Tulane
TTech over Oklahoma
Oregon St over UCLA

Some obviously matter more than others, but this is all of them.
Was just going to ask if anyone had a list and here it is, nice work! And, if all else fails, if Iowa sweeps then maybe gain about 40ish RPI points? Most likely this would vault us into the 50s? Certainly wouldn't hurt then if the teams in front of us lost!
 

whatsup13579er

HR Legend
Gold Member
Oct 13, 2015
15,192
26,575
113
Here is your rooting guide for the weekend…

Iowa over Indiana

Wichita St over USF
CMU over Toledo
George Mason over Davidson
EIU over Southeast Missouri
Penn St over Illinois
NC St over Wake Forest
Liberty over Kennesaw St
Louisiana Tech over Charlotte
North Florida over FGCU
FSU over UNC
Pitt 2/3 vs GTech
WKU over Old Dominion
Boston College over Clemson
Kansas St over West Virginia
Fordham over VCU
Auburn over Kentucky
UAB over UTSA
Little Rock over Louisiana
Southern Miss over MTSU
Florida over S Carolina
Arkansas over Alabama
Texas A&M over Ole Miss
Memphis over Tulane
TTech over Oklahoma
Oregon St over UCLA
Samford over Mercer

Some obviously matter more than others, but this is all of them.
K State vs WVU. That's digging deep right there! WVU might just find themselves on the bubble if they drop the series.

One thing I haven't put much thought into is how much of a factor is Iowa's loss to Loras going to be to the committee?
 

BigOHawk

HR All-American
Oct 27, 2001
3,404
3,838
113
Omaha, NE
K State vs WVU. That's digging deep right there! WVU might just find themselves on the bubble if they drop the series.

One thing I haven't put much thought into is how much of a factor is Iowa's loss to Loras going to be to the committee?
Non D1 games have no bearing, correct? Not sure if that game shows up on the team sheet??
 

BigOHawk

HR All-American
Oct 27, 2001
3,404
3,838
113
Omaha, NE
Here is your rooting guide for the weekend…

Iowa over Indiana

Wichita St over USF
CMU over Toledo
George Mason over Davidson
EIU over Southeast Missouri
Penn St over Illinois
NC St over Wake Forest
Liberty over Kennesaw St
Louisiana Tech over Charlotte
North Florida over FGCU
FSU over UNC
Pitt 2/3 vs GTech
WKU over Old Dominion
Boston College over Clemson
Kansas St over West Virginia
Fordham over VCU
Auburn over Kentucky
UAB over UTSA
Little Rock over Louisiana
Southern Miss over MTSU
Florida over S Carolina
Arkansas over Alabama
Texas A&M over Ole Miss
Memphis over Tulane
TTech over Oklahoma
Oregon St over UCLA
Samford over Mercer

Some obviously matter more than others, but this is all of them.
Penn and Bucknell tied at 3 T7. Was this game on your 'watch' list?
 

KyleHuesmann

HR All-American
Gold Member
Apr 14, 2021
3,730
5,880
113
Penn and Bucknell tied at 3 T7. Was this game on your 'watch' list?
Oh yes. I forgot to add the Penn/Columbia series to the list, although if Penn loses today, I still believe the loser of that series will be firmly out. If Penn beats Bucknell, we want Penn to beat Columbia.
 

BigOHawk

HR All-American
Oct 27, 2001
3,404
3,838
113
Omaha, NE
Oh yes. I forgot to add the Penn/Columbia series to the list, although if Penn loses today, I still believe the loser of that series will be firmly out. If Penn beats Bucknell, we want Penn to beat Columbia.
Yep, aaaand just as I post the score Penn goes back up 6-4 B7.
 

whatsup13579er

HR Legend
Gold Member
Oct 13, 2015
15,192
26,575
113
Here is your rooting guide for the weekend…

Some obviously matter more than others, but this is all of them.
Iowa over Indiana, obviously

Purdue over Maryland, B1G standings, 2.6 RPI per win
Michigan over Rutgers, B1G standings, -1.7 RPI per win
Penn St over Illinois, B1G standings, -4 RPI per win
Minny over NW, 4.6 RPI per win
MSU over Nebby, 0.8 RPI per win and I don't want Nebby in Omaha

Bradley over Missouri State 2.9 RPI per win
Wichita St over USF 2.6 RPI per win
CMU over Toledo 2.0 RPI per win
TTech over Oklahoma 1.3 RPI per win

George Mason over Davidson
EIU over Southeast Missouri
NC St over Wake Forest
Liberty over Kennesaw St
Louisiana Tech over Charlotte
North Florida over FGCU
FSU over UNC
Pitt 2/3 vs GTech (I think Pitt could sweep here and still be outside looking in)
WKU over Old Dominion
Boston College over Clemson
Kansas St over West Virginia
Fordham over VCU
Auburn over Kentucky
UAB over UTSA
Little Rock over Louisiana
Southern Miss over MTSU
Florida over S Carolina
Arkansas over Alabama
Texas A&M over Ole Miss
Memphis over Tulane
Oregon St over UCLA
Samford over Mercer
 
  • Like
Reactions: BigOHawk

whatsup13579er

HR Legend
Gold Member
Oct 13, 2015
15,192
26,575
113
Iowa W! over Indiana, obviously

Purdue L over Maryland (7 RPI! Could climb to 4th with a sweep), B1G standings, 2.6 RPI per win
Michigan W over Rutgers, B1G standings, -1.7 RPI per win
Penn St L over Illinois, B1G standings, -4 RPI per win
Minny W over NW, 4.6 RPI per win
MSU W over Nebby, 0.8 RPI per win and I don't want Nebby in Omaha

Bradley L over Missouri State 2.9 RPI per win
Wichita St L over USF 2.6 RPI per win
CMU L over Toledo 2.0 RPI per win
TTech L over Oklahoma 1.3 RPI per win

NC St L over Wake Forest
Liberty L over Kennesaw St
Louisiana Tech L over Charlotte
FSU L over UNC
Pitt 2/3 L vs GTech (I think Pitt could sweep here and still be outside looking in)
WKU L over Old Dominion
Boston College L over Clemson
UAB W over UTSA
Little Rock W over Louisiana
Southern Miss W over MTSU

George Mason L over Davidson
North Florida L over FGCU
Kansas St L over West Virginia
Fordham L over VCU
Florida W over S Carolina
Arkansas W over Alabama
Texas A&M W over Ole Miss
Memphis W over Tulane
Oregon St L over UCLA
Samford W over Mercer
Saint John's L over Xavier
Radford L over Campbell
Georgia L over Missouri
Towson L over Charleston
Gonzaga over SD
Penn over Columbia
EIU over Southeast Missouri
Auburn over Kentucky
 
Last edited:

HawkeyeGenius

HR All-American
Gold Member
Nov 25, 2021
3,427
4,465
113
Iowa W! over Indiana, obviously

Purdue L over Maryland (7 RPI! Could climb to 4th with a sweep), B1G standings, 2.6 RPI per win
Michigan W over Rutgers, B1G standings, -1.7 RPI per win
Penn St L over Illinois, B1G standings, -4 RPI per win
Minny W over NW, 4.6 RPI per win
MSU W over Nebby, 0.8 RPI per win and I don't want Nebby in Omaha

Bradley L over Missouri State 2.9 RPI per win
Wichita St L over USF 2.6 RPI per win
CMU L over Toledo 2.0 RPI per win
TTech L over Oklahoma 1.3 RPI per win

NC St L over Wake Forest
Liberty L over Kennesaw St
Louisiana Tech L over Charlotte
FSU L over UNC
Pitt 2/3 L vs GTech (I think Pitt could sweep here and still be outside looking in)
WKU L over Old Dominion
Boston College L over Clemson
UAB W over UTSA
Little Rock W over Louisiana
Southern Miss W over MTSU

George Mason L over Davidson
North Florida L over FGCU
Kansas St L over West Virginia
Fordham L over VCU
Florida W over S Carolina
Arkansas W over Alabama
Texas A&M W over Ole Miss
Memphis W over Tulane
Oregon St L over UCLA
Samford W over Mercer
Saint John's L over Xavier
Radford L over Campbell
Georgia L over Missouri
Towson L over Charleston
Gonzaga over SD
Penn over Columbia
EIU over Southeast Missouri
Auburn over Kentucky
Jesus