Just to start - this post is about paying players, not NIL...so all you NIL police don't need to tell me that NIL isn't about the schools paying the players. I get that, but it's not what this thread is about.
I don't really care about the tax thing. The real impacts will be on non-revenue sports and title IX. As employees, I think there's a good possibility that title IX will no longer apply. There's no need for equal scholarships which will greatly reduce the number of women's sports needed to balance out all those football schollys.
In addition, the revenue to pay players has to come from somewhere. Hey, football in raking in the cash, so no problem, right? Wrong. A bunch of that money is used to pay the cost of the non-revenue sports. So what do you do? Cut the non-revenue sports. Cutting men's non-revenue again reduces the title IX need for corresponding schollys for women's sports.
Also, they're employees now...how do you enforce the need for them to attend classes? I'd expect that to drop eventually too.
So the net effect will be semi-pro "college" football where the players are not college students, but are paid employees of the schools. The non-revenue sports will go away to fund the football players' salaries.
Oh...and you wrestling fans? No worries because our wrestling program is massively popular and isn't a money loser, right? Don't bet on it. Unless there are a bunch of other schools where it's as popular as it is at Iowa, they'll mostly be dropping it too. It doesn't matter if it's a revenue sport here if all the opponents drop the sport.
Who knows for sure how this will end up, but the law of unintended consequences says college sports across the board will be very different in the next couple decades.