Assuming the Trump budget is passed close to its current form . With additional trillions in debt. And the current market instability of our debt. Is the US almost certain to be going into default? Not seeing anyway around it.
Budget plan fallout?
- Thread starter tumorboy
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Sooner or later. Pretty much inevitable with the trajectory we’re on.
Given that treasuries are now at least semi-toxic, it's hard to figure out how they cover the deficit. They can jack up the debt ceiling $50T but they have to sell that to somebody.
2021 United States federal budget - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
2022 United States federal budget - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
2023 United States federal budget - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
Good point. But the instability that Trump is pushing right now. Is the issue. Not just the horrible fiscal policies of the past 25 years. That’s the loaded gun. Trump is pulling the trigger.2021 United States federal budget - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org2022 United States federal budget - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org2023 United States federal budget - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
Thinking it’s sooner. Can’t see the Bond market doing anything but retreat with the current administration.
I agree. I'm not sure the timing was right. But here we are and we have to ride it out, however it comes out. For everyone I hope it's a good way. Otherwise get ready for soup lines😟
Well the timing to do this would have to been a balanced approach. Try to set deficits at a fixed percentage of GDP. Also not attack the entire world economically. Get our allies together and squeeze China as much as possible.
Trying to make everyone bend the knee is impossible.
DON'T EXTEND RUINOUS TAX CUTS.
Well then it’s another reason to raise interest rates on us. As well send inflation skyward.
Do the powers that be care, though? That's my question. I plead ignorance on this.
The powers that be are thinking in terms of still being in Congress tomorrow. Or keeping the stock price up in the short term. They’re all too scared to do anything. They want someone else to do it and risk being punished.
When Trump left his last term, just under 25% of the total national debt was accumulated during those 4 years.
He’s off to a terrible start for his second term.
He’s off to a terrible start for his second term.
Half of that was COVID and the first year of Biden was also. We really need to pull 2020 & 2021 off the books for looking at averages.
If we want to play the blame game. We need to look at one administration. Dubya/Cheney, even before Terror War. Passed Medicare D with no funding mechanism. Then went into two foreign wars on the credit card.
Instead should have passed a giant tax increase to fund them. It was obviously a play to keep the American people from caring about them. That way they could go nuts on spending. Once the genie on deficits don’t matter was out of the bottle. Of course both parties would run with it. For their various supporters.
COVID was a bit different. We paid people to stay home (with tax dollars). We didn't have the income tax coming in from wages.
True, how many rounds of stimulus did we have 2 or 3? Don’t remember. I was against the last round. Not going to get into a debate about Corna though.
Either way Trump’s tax cuts were increasing deficits getting closer to a trillion.
Which right now of course is chicken fee
If we had avoided Corona we still would be running deficits north of a trillion. Just for the sake of assumptions. Let’s say our debt would be at 29 Trillion. And current deficit around 1.3 trillion.
Now still try to attempt what Trump is doing. Passing a budget that is projecting 580 billion deficit a year. With a 3% GDP growth assumption. Tariffs I guess are suppose to make up the shortfall in economic growth if anyone collects them.
I’d still think we’d find ourselves in the same exact situation with investors balking at the US.
I was a staunch critic of exactly that. He overspent, sent those stupid stimulus checks out (IMO to buy votes) and cut taxes. You would never take a pay cut then spend more, if it was your household.True, how many rounds of stimulus did we have 2 or 3? Don’t remember. I was against the last round. Not going to get into a debate about Corna though.
Either way Trump’s tax cuts were increasing deficits getting closer to a trillion.
Which right now of course is chicken fee
If we had avoided Corona we still would be running deficits north of a trillion. Just for the sake of assumptions. Let’s say our debt would be at 29 Trillion. And current deficit around 1.3 trillion.
Now still try to attempt what Trump is doing. Passing a budget that is projecting 580 billion deficit a year. With a 3% GDP growth assumption. Tariffs I guess are suppose to make up the shortfall in economic growth if anyone collects them.
I’d still think we’d find ourselves in the same exact situation with investors balking at the US.
We haven't been paying off the debt for quite a while now.
At this point it’s about managing the debt. Reducing the deficit to a more manageable level. 3% of GDP or less. Should be the cap.
Well let’s look at him. The man has never lived within his means ever. Expecting fiscal responsibility
. Same with Dubya and Obama just not as bad. Dubya a nepo baby allowed to fail at every business. Obama a community organizer . That made a living at sweat talking people. Biden career corporate politician.Now Trump is a combo of both Nepo baby con man that failed at every business. And sweat talked people into believing he is an success. To loan him more money to float his lifestyle.
But all of that is besides the point. let’s assume Corona never happened. Trump’s tactics would put us in the same position. Maybe a little more breathing room from default. But not a ton.
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All based on static analysis...there has never been a tax cut that didn't lead to higher economic growth, more revenue to the government, etc...This one will be the same
What is the difference between now and a year ago? At what level does the debt cause default?
As for me, I believe in budget cuts, especially the military, to get to a budget surplus going toward paying down the debt. The GOP is in a sorry state.
The US can’t default. The treasury would just print the money. Learn to love inflation.
I expect the China led D party to want the U.S. to default on its debt.
The D’s are very passionate in wanting to destroy our country.
Well let’s look at him. The man has never lived within his means ever. Expecting fiscal responsibility
Now Trump is a combo of both Nepo baby con man that failed at every business. And sweat talked people into believing he is an success. To loan him more money to float his lifestyle.
But all of that is besides let’s assume Corona never happened. Trump’s tactic would put us in the same position. Maybe a little more breathing room from default. But not a ton.
A year ago we weren’t attacking the World. Which may lead to folks stop lending us money. And I guess we lend it all to ourselves. Technically it wouldn’t be default. But interest rates and of course inflation, etc etc. Gets even worse.
As far as cuts go agree on military. Would probably do a 10% cut to social security benefits as well. Not sure on Medicare.
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Yup. You need a huge cut in defense spending and a federal hiring freeze and some tax increases/fee increases.
Get spending under control and I wouldn’t even have a problem with a 1% national sales tax to help bring the debt down.
Citizens United and the Scotus saying shit for brains is above the law caused this
Yes, but did that economic growth out pace what was already occurring naturally. Trumps GDP numbers post tax cuts were essentially the same as Obama’s in a similar time frame. The U.S. GDP growth rate varied between 2014 and 2019, with a general trend of increasing growth.In 2014, the growth rate was 2.52%, followed by 2.95% in 2015, 1.82% in 2016, and 2.46% in 2017. In 2018 and 2019, the growth rates were 2.94% and 2.14%, respectively
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