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For CEOs and Bankers, the Trump Euphoria Is Fading Fast
Deals market gets curtailed by uncertainty delivered in president’s first weeks
By
Lauren Thomas
Feb. 9, 2025
It took less than a month for the second Trump administration to cool the enthusiasm of chief executives and dealmakers.
Consumer sentiment is down and inflation expectations are rising, driven in part by worries about the impact of a threatened trade war. The deals market just ended its quietest January in a decade. A Justice Department that was expected to wave through acquisitions instead sued to block a big technology merger.
Corporate bigwigs are now using phrases like “fragility,” “volatility” and “wait and see” to describe their outlooks.
“Nobody knows what’s up,” Nick Pinchuk, chief executive of toolmaker Snap-on, said on a conference call Thursday. “It’s like being on Space Mountain at Disney World. You get on Space Mountain, you get in a car, and you’re in the dark and the cars go left and right, left and right and abrupt turns, you don’t know where you’re going, but you know, you’re pretty confident that you’re going to get to the right place at the bottom.”
The recent whipsaw on tariffs seemed to hit hardest on business leaders’ confidence. President Trump announced plans to stick 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, only to delay them for a month a few days later. A number of executives, as well as top investment bankers and other industry advisers, have said that priorities have shifted in recent days to navigating tariffs and other policy issues.
They need to settle supply routes, discuss whether to raise their own prices and figure out what is even happening. That doesn’t leave much room for thinking about big bet-the-company deals.
The reaction is evident in the deals market. Just under 900 deals were announced in the U.S. in January, according to data from LSEG. That compares with more than 1,200 transactions in the previous January and over 1,500 two years ago.
Even the hope of a lighter regulatory touch has taken a knock. The Justice Department sued to block Hewlett Packard Enterprise’s $14 billion deal to buy Juniper Networks. The companies, which make wireless networking products for large corporate customers, plan to defend the deal.
Not all of the deal trouble can be blamed on the macroenvironment. Buyers and sellers have to find agreement on many details, and those talks can falter for many reasons. A deal to combine Japanese automakers Nissan and Honda appears on the brink of collapse, and Bausch Health said its efforts to unload its Bausch + Lomb eye-care subsidiary to a private-equity suitor have sputtered.
There are still some CEOs eager to do deals, even if their counterparts are wary. There were six hostile or unsolicited deals announced in January, a level not seen in a month since May 2018, according to LSEG data.
Cintas, a maker of workplace products, made a $5.1 billion offer for smaller uniform supplier UniFirst that has been rebuffed several times. Building-products distributor QXO has launched a hostile bid for Beacon Roofing Supply, which in turn launched a poison pill to try to stop QXO.
Executives and Wall Street still remain optimistic about the full year and predict more deals than in recent years.
“The much anticipated M&A tsunami of 2025 has yet to make landfall, but the conditions are all still ripe for that to arrive later this year,” said Jim Langston, an M&A partner at the law firm Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison.
Langston said that while the past month or so has been more unpredictable, historically M&A activity doesn’t increase after a U.S. presidential inauguration until the start of the second quarter.
He and others say private-equity clients also expect to be more active later this year, for instance. Private-equity firm Sycamore is still trying to pull off a takeover of Walgreens Boots Alliance, as The Wall Street Journal reported, according to people familiar with the matter.
But to get those deals done, CEOs will need to find more comfort than they have today. A day after the election, David Galullo, CEO of the San Francisco design firm Rapt Studio, told his employees that he knew they were likely experiencing a whirl of emotions. Though he didn’t vote for Trump, he was trying to stay optimistic about the president’s early days for the economy.
The first two weeks, though, left Galullo concerned. He is planning to address his team again, but is at a loss for words because so much is happening so quickly.
“I don’t know what to say,” he said.