Campaign Almanac: Franken-commissioned poll shows him within 5 points of Grassley in Iowa’s U.S. Senate campaign

cigaretteman

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Gazette Des Moines Bureau
DES MOINES — A poll commissioned by Democratic candidate Mike Franken’s campaign shows him within 5 percentage points of longtime incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley in Iowa’s 2022 U.S. Senate campaign.
Grassley was the pick of 49 percent of the poll respondents, to 44 percent for Franken. Seven percent said they remain undecided.
Grassley’s six re-election campaign victories in Iowa have come by an average of 35 percentage points.

“These numbers echo what we are hearing from voters across the state, which is it is time for Senator Grassley to step aside,” the Franken campaign said in a news release. “This is not the same Chuck Grassley who was first elected to public office 63 years ago, and Iowans are sick and tired of the political posturing and hyper-partisanship.”

The poll was conducted by Change Research, which surveyed 1,488 likely Iowa voters from June 30 to July 4. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.

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Franken’s campaign has employed Change Research multiple times. In mid-May, a Change Research poll showed Franken statistically tied with Abby Finkenauer in the U.S. Senate Democratic primary campaign. Roughly three weeks later, Franken won that election by nearly 15 percentage points.
The new Change Research poll asked how voters voted in the 2020 presidential election: 51 percent said they voted for Republican Donald Trump and 43 percent said they voted for Democrat Joe Biden. That is close to the actual 2020 election results, in which 53 percent of Iowa voters voted for Trump and 45 percent voted for Biden.


The poll also re-asked the U.S. Senate question after offering biographical information on both candidates. After hearing that information, Grassley’s lead was trimmed to a single point, 47 percent to 46 percent, within the poll’s margin for error.
TRUMP ENDORSES NUNN: Former President Donald Trump has endorsed Zach Nunn, the Republican candidate in Central Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District.

Nunn, a state legislator and Iowa National Guard officer from Altoona, is challenging Democratic incumbent U.S. Rep. Cindy Axne.
In a statement, Trump said Nunn knows how to strengthen the U.S. military, defend the country, care for veterans, and “will tirelessly work” to support farmers, cut taxes and protect the Second Amendment.

 

IACub

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Sep 25, 2009
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First of all, this sounds great. I'd love to see Chuck slink away with his tail between his legs. That said, polling in itself is suspect, I've thought so since I dated a political science PhD student that specialized in political polling. She explained the whole system that I kind of remember learning in high school, but I was never able to get past the margin of error, and the fact that most people don't want to take the time to talk to a pollster. On top of that this is a self-funded poll, which add another layer of skepticism. I'll be surprised if Franken finishes within 5%, but pleasantly surprised. If he wins I'll buy you a beer, Ciggy.
 
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lucas80

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Jan 30, 2008
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The GOP will stuff Grassley's corpse in a glass box like Lenin's and put him on display at the Capitol in Des Moines if he passes before Election Day. Until that time they will keep him tightly under wraps, even more so than normal. Look for videos of him taking vigorous walks and easily negotiating 3-4 steps.
 
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IACub

HR Legend
Sep 25, 2009
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Iowa City, IA
The GOP will stuff Grassley's corpse in a glass box like Lenin's and put him on display at the Capitol in Des Moines if he passes before Election Day. Until that time they will keep him tightly under wraps, even more so than normal. Look for videos of him taking vigorous walks and easily negotiating 3-4 steps.
There will be a new ad with him using FIVE lawn mowers.
Screen-Shot-2016-08-29-at-8.18.29-PM-700x367.png
 

StormHawk42

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Nov 3, 2009
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I’d have more optimism if it wasn’t going to be a pretty strong red wave in November. I’ll happily eat crow if I’m wrong.