my hope for #1 for was that Spencer would get more comfortable in the pocket and improve in his pocket presence, which would mitigate to some extent those physical limitations we’ve seen from him. Not sure I agree that Padilla has tremendously higher upside, as he is limited as well. Him and Petras in many represent the yin to the others Yang. One has the look of a prototype Qb, and a very strong arm, but is extremely limited athletically. The other is far more mobile, but doesn’t have the arm strength of the other.
Can this be true?
- Thread starter The Deplorable Sleeping Dog
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my hope for #1 for was that Spencer would get more comfortable in the pocket and improve in his pocket presence, which would mitigate to some extent those physical limitations we’ve seen from him. Not sure I agree that Padilla has tremendously higher upside, as he is limited as well. Him and Petras in many represent the yin to the others Yang. One has the look of a prototype Qb, and a very strong arm, but is extremely limited athletically. The other is far more mobile, but doesn’t have the arm strength of the other.
I say since Padilla had the better Spring Game, begin the season with AP and see how many games we win (he’s already undefeated when starting and finishing games + NW). And before I get the usual comments it would have been easy for anyone to beat NW last year (those that actually saw the beginning of that game with Petras starting), was there any way we were definitely going to win if he stayed in there the whole game? I think not….
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Alex played against the three worst teams in the Big Ten, or close with NW, Bug Eaters and Illinois. His completion percentage was below 50%. He threw only 2 touchdowns and I think they were both against NW (not sure). His mechanics didn't look better in spring ball.
Alex has never made a play that made KF go "wow" so I'm thinking AP is number 3 at the first kick.
Alex has never made a play that made KF go "wow" so I'm thinking AP is number 3 at the first kick.
Who started and played the entire game against the goophers? That was Iowa's best win last year?
The only thing that makes KF go "wow" is a "nice punt", or maybe a poor third down play that creates an opportunity for a "nice punt".
Forget the small sample size on completion % and TDs. If you can't see the higher upside, you go to the penalty box with KF.
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Or Joe Labas.
It was not a small sample size. He played the equivalent of 5 full games, I think, and not against the hardest competition. He threw under .500 for the season, only 2 TDs in 5 games, 3 of which he started.
Why do you think that's a small sample size? An equivalent number of downs isn't necessary to draw conclusions about and distinctions between players.
Now one game is a small sample. Still, 11-24 and his only 2 TDs of the season. Are you saying the equivalent of five full games are an insufficient sample from which to judge APs upside, but we should use his best game, which still wasn't a great game, and from that project his ceiling? That doesn't seem like anything but a conclusion in search of proof-confirmation bias or the Hawthorne Effect, in its broadest sense.
I can see where confusing Petras as catastrophic when he's really only just bad would give birth to a commitment to Alex P. I realize it's a forced choice between two undesirable outcomes, but I think Padilla over Petras is the wrong choice, at this point. I think the analytics would support my conclusion.
Proof that DSD is incredibly bias against AP is he intentionally leaves out the MN game, while saying Padilla played against poor competition. So, when this painfully obvious omission is brought to light, here he goes again about 50% completions and other subpar stats WHILE MANAGING and WINNING consecutive games! Want some more recent Spring Game stats for AP, including completion percentage DSD? And compare with SP’s Spring Game stats? Not even close. If not familiar with those, just let me know as I’ll be happy to share those facts. You believe that AP’s 4-5 game experience equals SP’s 19 games experience? Gimmie a break. I think there’s something else going on with you and your perspective of AP that maybe we don’t know about? Otherwise how can you be so constantly critical of him, when all he’s done is WIN ALL OF HIS GAMES? Sheesh…
Lighten up, is Alex your brother? You are conflating different points.
First, I don't leave out the Minnesota game. It was AP's best game, which wasn't really a "great game", and not really close to SP's best game if we are cherry picking best game.
But I'm not, I include the Minnesota game's contributions to AP's awful statistics. Stats tell the complete story so the question is are five games a sufficient sample from which to project Alex's quality and ceiling. I think five games are sufficient.
So I'm not really "biased against" Alex I have formed an opinion and I think I'm right. I'm not cherry picking just the numbers that help my argument.
This is the difference.
| 165 | 288 | 1,880 | 57.3 | 6.5 | 67 | 10 | 9 | 24 | -168 | 117.3 |
| 55 | 112 | 636 | 49.1 | 5.7 | 72 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -42 | 99.1 |
Alex completion percentage is terrible for today's game. Spencer's is among the least accurate throwers in the P5 and his completion percentages is 8.2 percent better.
If you take away one play that was made by the receiver catching a weak pass, breaking a tackle and going for about 50 YAC his numbers become unplayable bad. Think about how many first downs are left on the field by a guy with a sub .500 completion percentage?
The more you guys rely on "but the Minnesota game" or other subjective opinions about "can make big plays", etc... the more illogical your argument becomes. For example, AP started against Nebraska, was pulled because of this
| 6 | 14 | 76 | 42.9 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 2 | 88.5 | 19.7 | 2 | -10 | -5.0 | 0 | 0 |
and SP came back into the game, overcame I think a two TD deficit and scored the final game winning touchdown himself. SP also had some beautiful tight completions to keep Iowa in the game. So, the big play is a double-edged sword kind of argument. SP's also less than average Nebraska performance was still the difference between victory and defeat.
| 7 | 13 | 102 | 53.8 | 7.8 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 119.8 | 87.5 |
I'm not personally attacking AP's character or anything other than his game, and I think I'm doing that in some pretty objective basis. Nothing against the kid other than he's not a very good P5 QB. I further opine there is third QB on the roster better than the P&P shit show we've seen in the last two seasons.
But if Alex is the better player he should start. I think he's number 3
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It is really simple. Petras is as bad as any QB I have seen. He is a statue that is also inaccurate. He has started 18 games vs 4 for Padilla. I don't see Padilla as substantially better but he sure as hell isn't worse. If the choice is Petras or Padilla I am choosing Padilla.
You can have the opinions you want. I'll just leave this topic by saying Padilla is significantly worse than Petras in every statistical category by which a QB is measured, except maybe sacks and I was just too damn tired to calculate which was better although for the sake of the argument Padilla took fewer sacks..
I don't anticipate seeing much from either of those guys so the P v P debate is probably moot.
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