Chances of non-B1G team in the Orange Bowl

[El Simbolo]

I created this matrix using ESPN's odds of winning for all five CCG's this weekend, and then listed my predicted CFP rankings for each of those 32 scenarios. The main goal is to predict what needs to happen in order for the Big Ten to keep its Citrus Bowl berth, and thus increase the bowl opportunities for Iowa. It also serves as a look at each teams' odds of making the playoff. Since I don't think the Pac12 champ has a shot at the playoff and that result doesn't really affect the Big Ten's Orange Bowl chances, the top and bottom half of the matrix are identical except for swapping of USC/Stanford.

Under several of the scenarios I'm not really sure how the rankings would shake out, so I'm open to feedback - especially related to the Orange Bowl question. The Orange Bowl will pit the highest ranked non-champion from the pool of B1G, SEC, & Notre Dame against the ACC (and if its the B1G, then we lose our Citrus Bowl bid). The matrix revealed that the only way a B1G team (Wisconsin) will qualify for the Orange Bowl is if both Ohio State and Auburn win. Neither OSU or PSU have a shot at this because if OSU loses they won't be ranked high enough and if they win they'll be B1G champs. So it appears there is only a 33% chance of the B1G not getting the Orange Bowl, and thus a 67% chance of us keeping the Citrus Bowl berth.

 

[El Simbolo]

much better thread with the image directly in it - sorry about that.

Anyone think I'm off base to think that a Wisconsin or Georgia win lands a Big Ten team in the Citrus Bowl?

 

[HemiHawk]

I don't think it's way off base, it is possible. I think SI has Wiscy in the Orange and Miami in the Citrus for their prediction. Thought I saw someone else predicted ND in the Citrus and BIG in the Orange. I always enjoy the scramble and discussions for bowl games.

 

[El Simbolo]

Lesson learned... spreadsheet = thread killer

 

[El Simbolo]

LoneClone, you out there? You mentioned cheering for TCU to help Cyclones bowl destination improve. Do you really think TCU might get bumped out of NY6? Who would pass them? I suppose maybe Washington if Stanford beats USC. WaShington didn’t play USC, but maybe they would move up with Stanford if the Cardinal wins???

 

[El Simbolo]

So I think Georgia’s win locks either Auburn or Alabama into the Orange Bowl instead of the B1G team. Which would mean the only way we fall below the Music City Bowl would be if conference and bowl put Purdue above us

 

[Lone Clone]

LoneClone, you out there? You mentioned cheering for TCU to help Cyclones bowl destination improve. Do you really think TCU might get bumped out of NY6? Who would pass them? I suppose maybe Washington if Stanford beats USC. WaShington didn’t play USC, but maybe they would move up with Stanford if the Cardinal wins???

Just saw this...yes, I don’t think the horny toads make a NY6 bowl, especually the way they were waxed today. In a related matter, I’m seeing ISU projected as playing in Memphis against Memphis. I cannot tell you how much that would suck.

 

[El Simbolo]

Who’s gonna move above TCU? Stanford after a loss? Washington? UW can’t jump Stanford. ND, because they’ll move up along with Georgia? Committee generally hasn’t penalized teams for CCG losses compared to idle teams.

 

[El Simbolo]

Just saw this...yes, I don’t think the horny toads make a NY6 bowl, especually the way they were waxed today. In a related matter, I’m seeing ISU projected as playing in Memphis against Memphis. I cannot tell you how much that would suck.

SEC will fill it’s Liberty spot, so at least if ISU gets there it won’t be Memphis they’re playing

 

[Myvue]

It's going to be Oklahoma and Clemson in the championship game is my guess.

 

[El Simbolo]

Badgers in Orange Bowl vs Miami. Done deal. ND probably to Citrus instead of MSU

 

[El Simbolo]

SEC will fill it’s Liberty spot, so at least if ISU gets there it won’t be Memphis they’re playing

Oops, didn’t realize Mississippi is on probation