Republican U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley leads Democrat Mike Franken by 8 percentage points among likely Iowa voters, according to a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll — a first look at what could be Grassley’s most competitive election since 1980.
Grassley leads 47% to 39% against Franken, a retired U.S. Navy admiral, in the latest poll, conducted July 10-13 by Selzer & Co. Another 7% of likely voters say they would vote for someone else, 2% say they would not vote and 5% say they are not sure.
While Grassley leads Franken, the margin is narrower than in any Iowa Poll matchup involving Grassley since he was first elected to the U.S. Senate. Grassley has not polled below 50% in a head-to-head contest since October 1980, before he went on to defeat incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. John Culver.
“It is his weakest showing since 1980,” pollster J. Ann Selzer said of Grassley.
Still, election forecasters say the race is solidly positioned in Grassley’s favor.
More:Can Mike Franken defeat Chuck Grassley in US Senate race? Franken confident; experts skeptical
Since Grassley’s 1980 victory over Culver, which he won by 8 percentage points, a Democrat has not won even 40% of the vote against Grassley. His closest result since then was in 2016, when he defeated former Lt. Gov. Patty Judge by 24 percentage points, taking 60% of the vote to Judge’s 36%.
“It’s a solid lead,” Selzer said. “But it’s just not as huge as we’ve seen in the past.”
The new poll of 811 Iowa adults — including 597 likely voters — has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points for questions asked of all Iowans and 4 percentage points for questions asked of likely voters.
Grassley leads 47% to 39% against Franken, a retired U.S. Navy admiral, in the latest poll, conducted July 10-13 by Selzer & Co. Another 7% of likely voters say they would vote for someone else, 2% say they would not vote and 5% say they are not sure.
While Grassley leads Franken, the margin is narrower than in any Iowa Poll matchup involving Grassley since he was first elected to the U.S. Senate. Grassley has not polled below 50% in a head-to-head contest since October 1980, before he went on to defeat incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. John Culver.
“It is his weakest showing since 1980,” pollster J. Ann Selzer said of Grassley.
Still, election forecasters say the race is solidly positioned in Grassley’s favor.
More:Can Mike Franken defeat Chuck Grassley in US Senate race? Franken confident; experts skeptical
Since Grassley’s 1980 victory over Culver, which he won by 8 percentage points, a Democrat has not won even 40% of the vote against Grassley. His closest result since then was in 2016, when he defeated former Lt. Gov. Patty Judge by 24 percentage points, taking 60% of the vote to Judge’s 36%.
“It’s a solid lead,” Selzer said. “But it’s just not as huge as we’ve seen in the past.”
The new poll of 811 Iowa adults — including 597 likely voters — has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points for questions asked of all Iowans and 4 percentage points for questions asked of likely voters.
Chuck Grassley holds 8-point lead over Mike Franken in US Senate race, Iowa Poll finds
While Chuck Grassley leads Mike Franken, the poll is the first time since 1980 that Grassley has polled below 50% in a head-to-head contest.
www.press-citizen.com