CJ Beathard: there is no way teams can load up against the run this year.

[icu81222]

I just don't see it happening like in the past few years.

Yeah, you can argue that the greg davis 3 yd out offense will prove that wrong but I just don't see CJ sticking to that script. He will take shots. A lot of shots and teams will absolutely have to respect that.

There is enough speed at WR and TE to force that issue too.

Plus, I see Davis opening it more vertically. I really do.

That's not to say there won't be some inexplicable 3 yd outs to the short side of the field on 3rd and 7.....there will, but I really believe CJ will more often than not take the shot on a deeper route.

We may see quite a bit of feast or famine halves of football. But that big play capability is going to keep many more teams honest and that should bode well for our faster backfield this year and hopefully will take some pressure off those new tackles.

I think there will be alot of fun times on offense the next 2 years.

 

[CuttyDoesIt]

We also no longer have a full back and a Damon Bullock playing running back

 

[icu81222]

We also no longer have a full back and a Damon Bullock playing running back

Excellent point. Everyone focuses on Weismann plugging up the backfield but even though Bullock was a good Hawk, he was a bad fit in many ways. Bad combination.

 

[83Hawk]

I believe those 3 yard outs on 3rd and 7 will be a last resort for CJ. He is going to stay with a downfield receiver longer, rather than give up on him if he isn't wide open right off the line of scrimmage.

There will be more interceptions this year....but there will also be a lot more big plays.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

I believe those 3 yard outs on 3rd and 7 will be a last resort for CJ. He is going to stay with a downfield receiver longer, rather than give up on him if he isn't wide open right off the line of scrimmage.

There will be more interceptions this year....but there will also be a lot more big plays.

There will also be a lot more sacks ... both due to the newbies at OT and due to CJ holding onto the ball too long.

 

[bagdropper]

There will also be a lot more sacks ... both due to the newbies at OT and due to CJ holding onto the ball too long.

I have a bad feeling we're going to need more than CJ at QB this year. Obviously, I hope I am wrong - or if I'm right, the backup is ready for the challenge.

 

[IACentralHawk73]

I like his confidence, the most confident QB we've had since Stanzi left IMO, but I'm excited to see how he does game in and game out, he loves the big plays.

 

[nu2u]

I share your concern bagdropper. I love his mobility but he has to perfect the right time to slide. He took a few vicious hits in the Bowl game and bounced right back up. Tough SOB but its a long season.

 

[St. Louis Hawk]

I have yet to see anything out of GD/KF and KOK/KF different than this:

And I doubt I will this year.

 

[nu2u]

I have yet to see anything out of GD/KF and KOK/KF different than this:

And I doubt I will this year.

I suppose its a good joke but if you actually believe this, then I seriously doubt that you watched any games last year.

 

[tarantula5]

There is still the matter of actually completing the passes or not having receivers drop them.

 

[St. Louis Hawk]

I suppose its a good joke but if you actually believe this, then I seriously doubt that you watched any games last year.

I watched them all. While it is of course an exaggeration, would you call a team that finished 68th in scoring offense, 63 in total offense, 54 in passing efficiency, and 55 in passing offense the reincarnation of Air Coryell?

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

I have a bad feeling we're going to need more than CJ at QB this year. Obviously, I hope I am wrong - or if I'm right, the backup is ready for the challenge.

Sadly, I think that you're correct. Rudock made really quick reads (many pre-snap) and was good at getting rid of the ball quickly ... and even Rudock got knocked out of games several times last year. When you also consider that Rudock had the benefit of Scherff and Donnal last year - I'd be surprised if CJ doesn't get more than a little dinged.

 

[nu2u]

After reviewing a few of last season games again I believe it is fairly evident that Ruddock often bailed too soon when he sensed pressure. As a result, he frequently looked for the receiver on the short route or tucked under and sought an escape route.

I like JR but he often missed receivers running open further down filed. Furthermore, I think it can be demonstrated that the WRs on the deep routes would have gained enough separation on many occasions if Jake could have stood in there another second .....or he could have better anticipated that and thrown to that location.

All of the above is a generalization. There were instances where JR looked pretty good throwing downfield while under pressure. Other times, more often, it looked like he had his mind set from the snap that he was going to throw short no matter what. Overall, I think it is fair to say that Ruddock is/was a risk averse QB insofar as he favored the "safe" or higher probability pass in down & distance plays.

One thing I'm confident about, however, is that Davis' had at least one, and often two, receivers running routes past the sticks on 3rd and long.

 

[icu81222]

Many times JR knew he couldn't make the longer throw once a play had developed so he tucked it or threw to a check down. CJ won't have that problem. He'll sling it, He'll throw it up and let his guy go get it where JR flat out couldn't get it there.

 

[St. Louis Hawk]

One thing I'm confident about, however, is that Davis' had at least one, and often two, receivers running routes past the sticks on 3rd and long.

Doesn't do much good if the QB can't or won't throw it to them because he's worried about a turnover or doesn't have the arm.

There's a reason why Iowa finished 67th in yards per attempt last year.

 

[Kurt Warner]

I too feel cj is going to be a major upgrade at the qb position and will keep the defense honest. Lets be real people jake was not the answer and couldn't get it done. If kirk would have taken off the "I play favorites" colored glasses, and "I'm a stubborn sob" just ask me attitude we would have enjoyed a much more wide open offense last year.

 

[nu2u]

Doesn't do much good if the QB can't or won't throw it to them because he's worried about a turnover or doesn't have the arm.

That is the whole point I was trying to make about your Greg Davis 3rd&5 graphic - the problem had more to do with the QB than the OC.

 

[AirForceChiefO]

I definitely believe C. J. is an upgrade at QB but that is likely to be offset by the young O-Line. Our Center is good but the Guards have been very average or below and the Tackles are young and inexperienced. C.J. will be a miracle worker if he can stay healthy and have a big year. With this O-Line I doubt that will happen.

 

[DarkThunder#61]

I watched them all. While it is of course an exaggeration, would you call a team that finished 68th in scoring offense, 63 in total offense, 54 in passing efficiency, and 55 in passing offense the reincarnation of Air Coryell?

Fwiw.....

2014 Iowa finished t-29th in the nation on 3rd down conversion % (90/201; .448), and 3rd in the Big Ten behind top 10 OSU and MSU...........those were the only 3 Big Ten teams in the top 50 in that category.

*seeing that stat now for the first time actually just pisses me off more than anything........

Iowa also finished t-26th in the nation on 4th down conversion % (14/23; .609), and 3rd in the Big Ten behind top 11 Wisconsin and Minnesota. 13 teams in the top 50 had more successful 4th down conversions than Iowa and 12 had more attempts.

Perception = reality?....................Food for thought.

 

[Titanhawk2]

Many times JR knew he couldn't make the longer throw once a play had developed so he tucked it or threw to a check down. CJ won't have that problem. He'll sling it, He'll throw it up and let his guy go get it where JR flat out couldn't get it there.

Because he told you that? Or you could just tell, "he knew"

 

[icu81222]

Because he told you that? Or you could just tell, "he knew"

We all could tell he knew, we knew, the coaches knew, the receivers knew, the equipment managers knew. Hell, even Obama knew. (a first)

 

[Recruiting Violation]

Fwiw.....

2014 Iowa finished t-29th in the nation on 3rd down conversion % (90/201; .448), and 3rd in the Big Ten behind top 10 OSU and MSU...........those were the only 3 Big Ten teams in the top 50 in that category.

*seeing that stat now for the first time actually just pisses me off more than anything........

Iowa also finished t-26th in the nation on 4th down conversion % (14/23; .609), and 3rd in the Big Ten behind top 11 Wisconsin and Minnesota. 13 teams in the top 50 had more successful 4th down conversions than Iowa and 12 had more attempts.

Perception = reality?....................Food for thought.

I think the issue here is that we were always taking small chunks of yards on every down and quite frequently needed all 4 downs to move the sticks. I liked the fact that we were going on 4th more, but a 4th down conversion isn't necessary so often when you have a more explosive offense. The above conversion rates aren't quite so great when you think about this. A lot of our drives started deep in our own territory (poor return on a kick or punt, or a fair catch). We needed 80 or more yards to reach the end zone, and ended up with a 50-75 yard drive and 0-3 points. Even if you're converting much higher on 3rd down - let's say 60% - you're going to end up failing to score a TD when you have 4 or more third downs each drive. If facing 4 third downs, a 60% conversion rate gives just 13% odds of completing all 4.

To score points, you need to gain yards. The most efficient way to gain yards is to move the ball farther on every down. We were 65th out of 128 teams last year in yards per play. For a team that was 7-6 with a fair to middling defense, it seems to make sense that an average offense would also be present. The 4 teams who made the playoff last year were 2 (Oregon), 5 (OSU), 12 (Bama), and 26 (FSU) in yards per play. You clearly don't need to move the ball a lot to make it in (FSU), but you need to move the ball to win championships.

Do I think we'll move the ball more each play this year? We'll certainly try, as we have a QB who is going to make those high-risk/high-reward throws that we haven't seen much recently. Let's see how the season plays out. I'm cautiously optimistic that we can improve our record and field a more entertaining team this year.

Stats are from https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/yards-per-play

 

[MadDogC]

@hawkeyegamefilm: Iowa WR Tevaun Smith didn't drop a pass on 63 targets in 2014. Only other B1G WR w/0 drops in '14 on 50+ targets, Rutgers Leonte Carroo

Can we target this Guy twelve times a game this year?

 

[David1979]

@hawkeyegamefilm: Iowa WR Tevaun Smith didn't drop a pass on 63 targets in 2014. Only other B1G WR w/0 drops in '14 on 50+ targets, Rutgers Leonte Carroo

Can we target this Guy twelve times a game this year?

exactly. he needs more targets. There were several times last year where he was targeted on deep passes and even though he didn't get it he drew a pass interference. I think they can capitalize on this more with Beathard.

 

[Recruiting Violation]

exactly. he needs more targets. There were several times last year where he was targeted on deep passes and even though he didn't get it he drew a pass interference. I think they can capitalize on this more with Beathard.

I think everyone recognized last year that he needed more targets except KF/GD/JR. I know Tevaun realized it, as I saw him get pissed almost every game for not getting the ball in a key situation. Normally, that sort of behavior bothers me, but he was right every time. Tevaun was our best big-play weapon last year and got overlooked or ignored way too much.

 

[Recruiting Violation]

@hawkeyegamefilm: Iowa WR Tevaun Smith didn't drop a pass on 63 targets in 2014. Only other B1G WR w/0 drops in '14 on 50+ targets, Rutgers Leonte Carroo

Can we target this Guy every play this year?

FIFY.

 

[St. Louis Hawk]

Fwiw.....

2014 Iowa finished t-29th in the nation on 3rd down conversion % (90/201; .448), and 3rd in the Big Ten behind top 10 OSU and MSU...........those were the only 3 Big Ten teams in the top 50 in that category.

*seeing that stat now for the first time actually just pisses me off more than anything........

Iowa also finished t-26th in the nation on 4th down conversion % (14/23; .609), and 3rd in the Big Ten behind top 11 Wisconsin and Minnesota. 13 teams in the top 50 had more successful 4th down conversions than Iowa and 12 had more attempts.

Perception = reality?....................Food for thought.

I agree, they made some progress under Davis last year. But 3rd and 4th down conversions don't really mean much if you don't take advantage of the conversions and score.

The simple fact -- and has almost always the fact with Iowa under KF -- is that the offense needs to score more. It has been a problem that hasn't been fixed over the last decade. I haven't looked at the numbers, but I would bet our scoring defense rank has been higher than our scoring offense rank every year since 2000, absent a few outliers when we had to sling it around. And there are years, at least to my untrained eye, that we had the horses to score more, but elected to slow it down -- which I just don't understand.

I hope Sunshine is the second coming of Drew Tate. We will see in a few weeks.

 

[Kurt Warner]

exactly. he needs more targets. There were several times last year where he was targeted on deep passes and even though he didn't get it he drew a pass interference. I think they can capitalize on this more with Beathard.

Maybe he can throw to willies some too, oh wait, never mind

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

I believe those 3 yard outs on 3rd and 7 will be a last resort for CJ. He is going to stay with a downfield receiver longer, rather than give up on him if he isn't wide open right off the line of scrimmage.

There will be more interceptions this year....but there will also be a lot more big plays.

Which makes it imperative that the O-Line performs well...basically my major concern with this years team...inexperienced and not very deep.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

I think everyone recognized last year that he needed more targets except KF/GD/JR. I know Tevaun realized it, as I saw him get pissed almost every game for not getting the ball in a key situation. Normally, that sort of behavior bothers me, but he was right every time. Tevaun was our best big-play weapon last year and got overlooked or ignored way too much.

If a guy doesn't get the ball passed to him ... then that is typically on the QB not getting him on the ball. It's sometimes also due to the guy not getting open "quite enough." The point being, I put this far more on Rudock than I would on the coaches.

Through the prior 2 years, it was abundantly clear that Rudock ideally wanted guys to be WIDE open before he was willing to throw any longer passes. He never really seemed comfortable with lofting the ball up and letting his guy make a play on it. I remember comments made by Marvin McNutt suggested as much (comments made on social media). Obviously Iowa's D was rough around the edges - so we couldn't afford stupid turnovers ... and, obviously the long ball wasn't really a consistent weapon in Rudock's arsenal - so it made it an even lower percentage play ... so Jake had some good reasons to not make such passes. However, Beathard isn't similarly constrained.

 

[Recruiting Violation]

If a guy doesn't get the ball passed to him ... then that is typically on the QB not getting him on the ball. It's sometimes also due to the guy not getting open "quite enough." The point being, I put this far more on Rudock than I would on the coaches.

Through the prior 2 years, it was abundantly clear that Rudock ideally wanted guys to be WIDE open before he was willing to throw any longer passes. He never really seemed comfortable with lofting the ball up and letting his guy make a play on it. I remember comments made by Marvin McNutt suggested as much (comments made on social media). Obviously Iowa's D was rough around the edges - so we couldn't afford stupid turnovers ... and, obviously the long ball wasn't really a consistent weapon in Rudock's arsenal - so it made it an even lower percentage play ... so Jake had some good reasons to not make such passes. However, Beathard isn't similarly constrained.

Point taken regarding Jake. However, if the coaches saw what we saw, they could certainly adapt the play-calling to get Tevaun more looks. Also, I'm pretty sure there weren't any coaches in Jake's ear telling him "Get the damn ball to Tevaun". If they did, we'd have seen his targets increase toward the end of the year, rather than decrease.

 

[kellerm]

After reviewing a few of last season games again I believe it is fairly evident that Ruddock often bailed too soon when he sensed pressure. As a result, he frequently looked for the receiver on the short route or tucked under and sought an escape route.

I like JR but he often missed receivers running open further down filed. Furthermore, I think it can be demonstrated that the WRs on the deep routes would have gained enough separation on many occasions if Jake could have stood in there another second .....or he could have better anticipated that and thrown to that location.

All of the above is a generalization. There were instances where JR looked pretty good throwing downfield while under pressure. Other times, more often, it looked like he had his mind set from the snap that he was going to throw short no matter what. Overall, I think it is fair to say that Ruddock is/was a risk averse QB insofar as he favored the "safe" or higher probability pass in down & distance plays.

One thing I'm confident about, however, is that Davis' had at least one, and often two, receivers running routes past the sticks on 3rd and long.

Agree with the above assessment. It was more Than obvious Jake was either slow to read the D or had no confidence in his 15+ yard throw but there were open receivers beyond 10 yards quite often. It was especially apparent when watching the game from the stands. Hopefully CJ will do a better job finding those guys. He appears to have the strength to compensate for a delayed read if need be.

 

[Win5002]

Excellent point. Everyone focuses on Weismann plugging up the backfield but even though Bullock was a good Hawk, he was a bad fit in many ways. Bad combination.

There was a reason Brian Ferentz was given the title run coordinator in the off season, a title I have never heard before with the Iowa program and not really sure I have with any other program either. Bullock was put on the field too much by the position coach.

 

[nu2u]

Maybe he can throw to willies some too, oh wait, never mind

Willies may have had a good career at Iowa but we'll never know since he quit. He ended up with 5-6 catches and a TD his freshman year I think.

He is build well, fast for his size and has good hands but its hard to tell where his head is at. Any time you walk away from a team in the middle of the season, that's a problem. Then, he asked back but balked at the opportunity to return, He ended up at a junior college in Texas where he will play this season then committed to Missouri for the 2016 season IIRC. I'm not confident he will make it there, we'll see.

 

[ichawk24]

Willies is committed to Texas Tech, not Missouri. He did flirt with Mizzou for a while.

 

[nu2u]

Willies is committed to Texas Tech, not Missouri. He did flirt with Mizzou for a while.

Thanks for that. Might be a future ex-Iowa connection as QB Nic Shimonek transferred there as well.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

Point taken regarding Jake. However, if the coaches saw what we saw, they could certainly adapt the play-calling to get Tevaun more looks. Also, I'm pretty sure there weren't any coaches in Jake's ear telling him "Get the damn ball to Tevaun". If they did, we'd have seen his targets increase toward the end of the year, rather than decrease.

On paper, our group of receiving targets looked good. Martin Manley was an established commodity, Powell was a fan-favorite and a burner, VandeBerg did nothing but get open, and Duzey was doozey of a target at TE. On top of that, Bullock was a reliable check-down target ... and Parker was a promising, speedy playmaker too.

As goofy as it sounds, I think that Greg Davis has a bad habit of overthinking things. A lot of offensive coordinators get caught up caring so much about being "multiple" - that they forget that ultimately it just matters about getting the ball in the end-zone. Thus, with the intention of making Iowa more "multiple" ... Iowa has put the ball in the hands of many different guys ... thereby forcing opposing Ds to have to defend EVERYBODY. While that sounds great, as you pointed out, it takes the ball out of the hands of your top playmakers. Of course, the flip-side can also happen ... you can focus so much at getting the ball to a single guy that it effectively makes you easier to shut-down. For instance, in our 2011 bowl game against Oklahoma, our passing game was so reliant on getting the ball to McNutt ... that when Oklahoma shut him down ... our O effectively had no other answer.

As for getting the ball to Smith more last year ... that still ultimately depends on the QB. The coaches can call a play where Smith is the primary look ... however, if the QB makes a pre-or post-snap read and decides that he's not seeing the coverage he wants ... that ultimately dictates where the ball will get thrown. After all, we DON'T want our QB to lock onto a single target ... that's way too easy to read as a defender.

 

[hwksforlife]

I suppose its a good joke but if you actually believe this, then I seriously doubt that you watched any games last year.

This is true. The picture should have all of the receivers within 5 yards of each other.

 

[Cardsnhawks]

There was a reason Brian Ferentz was given the title run coordinator in the off season, a title I have never heard before with the Iowa program and not really sure I have with any other program either. Bullock was put on the field too much by the position coach.

• Jeff Grimes: LSU
• Bob Connelly - USC
• Steve Greatwood - Oregon
• Dave Christensen - Texas A&M
• Brandon Jones - California