Clinical Outcomes in Young US Adults Hospitalized With COVID-19

[haw-key]

So this is informational with some fun exercises of bad math to boot. @Joes Place will no doubt try to poke holes in this and say it’s not just death but myocarditis blah blah blah.

Clinical Outcomes in Young US Adults Hospitalized With COVID-19

This case series examines the clinical outcomes for young adults hospitalized with COVID-19.

jamanetwork.com

“Among 780 969 adults discharged between April 1, 2020, and June 30, 2020, 63 103 (8.1%) had the ICD-10 code for COVID-19, of whom 3222 (5%) were nonpregnant young adults (age 18-34 years) admitted to 419 US hospitals. The mean (SD) age of this population was 28.3 (4.4) years; 1849 (57.6%) were men and 1838 (57.0%) were Black or Hispanic. Overall, 1187 (36.8%) had obesity, 789 (24.5%) morbid obesity, 588 (18.2%) diabetes, and 519 (16.1%) hypertension (Table).”

Note that this means that of all hospitalized patients between April 1 and June 30th in the group studied the chance of death for an 18-34 year old is .01%.

This doesn’t even take into account the number of those not hospitalized. One really can’t extrapolate to the general population without knowing the overall population of those communities that these 1k plus hospitals serve. But one can easy state I think that it is at least 1 order and likely 2 orders or more, of magnitude lower.

Some amateur (relax it’s just for fun all you actuaries) analysis. I’m not trying to form conclusions with this. Just stabbing at what could be the application to the US as a whole.

One possible way to estimate it might be that there are 1k hospitals in this study and 6k hospitals in the US. That method is clearly fraught with error but just a comparison about what we are talking about here.

Another, possibly closer but more complex, estimate would be this......
There are 36 million hospital admissions annually. So this period is 3 months. So 1/4 of that is 9 million admissions country wide in an average 3 month period, if admissions is a constant which is a big assumption. This was 780k of them. So this sample COULD be representative of 8.6% of the US population assuming, I know it’s massively, that admissions in this group of hospitals is representative of 8.6% of the US. This is 28 million people. So if all these assumptions are close, this is 88 deaths in the 18-34 age group out of 28 million people. That’s .0003%.

The real mathematicians on here can no doubt provide a better analysis than i but the main point is that this study likely can’t ok approximate much of anything and really simply says what it does. That the risk of death in hospitalized patients with Covid in this sample of 18-36 year olds was . 01%

Anyway based on my expert opinion let’s play football!

If someone wants to forward my statistical analysis to the BIG I’ll provide my contact info .

 

[Hawkeye_311]

 

[The Tradition]

Yup.

Put the old fat coaches up in the booth where they can socially distance and let the young players and coaches roam the field! Let's play football!

 

[JJ13579]

How exactly did you calculate 0.01%

The link literally tells you that's not right

 

[Formerly Rockymtnole]

25% of young adults are morbidly obese and nearly 20% have diabetes? This pandemic has really highlighted the broader public health issue, hasn’t it?

 

[Fijimn]

25% of young adults are morbidly obese and nearly 20% have diabetes? This pandemic has really highlighted the broader public health issue, hasn’t it?

Imagine an initiative to encourage healthier foods in school lunches....

 

[Formerly Rockymtnole]

Imagine an initiative to encourage healthier foods in school lunches....

I dunno...sounds like some kind of radical socialist Marxist leftist Antifa indoctrination to me.

 

[Hendy hawk]

Imagine an initiative to encourage healthier foods in school lunches....

That is a good reply and I agree but most kids don't like what is served now as it is.
My grand kids take their sack lunch and eat healthy but a lot of parents would just send their kids to school with junk food anyway

 

[Whiskeydeltadeltatango]

25% of young adults are morbidly obese and nearly 20% have diabetes? This pandemic has really highlighted the broader public health issue, hasn’t it?

This is what I also found interesting when the narrative that it kills blacks/Latinos at a higher rate gets thrown around. If you put up a graphs of death rate by ethnicity and obesity rates by ethnicity its almost identical.

 

[Hammer93]

If this study is accurate (I assume it is) then start football practice now and games in a week or two. The facts are stated. I agree with putting a majority of the older coaches in the booth and let's go. Screw this political crap of not playing. It's ridiculous and proven wrong now.

 

[86Hawkeye]

Cancel football season!!!

 

[Formerly Rockymtnole]

This is what I also found interesting when the narrative that it kills blacks/Latinos at a higher rate gets thrown around. If you put up a graphs of death rate by ethnicity and obesity rates by ethnicity its almost identical.

Leads right back into discussion of poverty and relative lack of access to quality health care.

 

[BioHawk]

That is a good reply and I agree but most kids don't like what is served now as it is.
My grand kids take their sack lunch and eat healthy but a lot of parents would just send their kids to school with junk food anyway

And there is nothing you can do about that. However, people won't be able to say they never had the opportunity to eat healthy if you do provide options.

 

[JJ13579]

25% of young adults are morbidly obese and nearly 20% have diabetes? This pandemic has really highlighted the broader public health issue, hasn’t it?

25% of young adults that were hospitalized with COVID-19 were morbidly obese

Not 25% of all young adults are morbidly obese

 

[Formerly Rockymtnole]

25% of young adults that were hospitalized with COVID-19 were morbidly obese

Not 25% of all young adults are morbidly obese

Ah, I misread that. Thanks

 

[Run&Blade]

Imagine an initiative to encourage healthier foods in school lunches....

That was an absolute waste of time and money.

the outrageous diets, carbs, and calories that caused this was not from school lunches. It’s the shit they consumed away from school.

nobody is fat or diabetic from school lunch.

 

[BioHawk]

That was an absolute waste of time and money.

the outrageous diets, carbs, and calories that caused this was not from school lunches. It’s the shit they consumed away from school.

nobody is fat or diabetic from school lunch.

That was never the point. The idea was to provide at least one healthy meal for kids that may never be getting one. Plus, it would help to educate kids as to what a healthy meal looks like, something else they may not be learning at home.

It is correct that without changing behavior outside of school then you won't fix the problem, but the first step to changing that behavior is teaching kids what a proper meal with correct proportions looks like.

You can make the argument that won't work because kids don't do the shopping or in most cases do meal preparation, but unfortunately the program wasn't allowed to work long enough to get any significant data as to if it was working or not.

 

[torbee]

So what is the new news here?

The concern has always been about broader community spread to the more vulnerable by the less vulnerable who are infected.

 

[Joes Place]

How exactly did you calculate 0.01%

The link literally tells you that's not right

Yup

He finds some crap numbers, and tries to piece together something.
Fails miserably.

 

[goldmom]

25% of young adults are morbidly obese and nearly 20% have diabetes? This pandemic has really highlighted the broader public health issue, hasn’t it?

A lifetime of processed fast food is truly the devil.

 

[Whiskeydeltadeltatango]

So what is the new news here?

The concern has always been about broader community spread to the more vulnerable by the less vulnerable who are infected.

I was lead to believe the concern was overflowing hospitals that would not be able to provide care/ventilators/ beds if it spread to quickly.

 

[goldmom]

25% of young adults that were hospitalized with COVID-19 were morbidly obese

Not 25% of all young adults are morbidly obese

I think it's far more prevalent than you might realize. The differences in what the kids look like now versus just 20 years ago are striking.

 

[torbee]

I was lead to believe the concern was overflowing hospitals that would not be able to provide care/ventilators/ beds if it spread to quickly.

I think that was a legit concern early on - when that very thing was happening in Italy, New York and elsewhere.

As mitigation efforts ramped up and treatment options improved, the effort shifted to one of controlling outbreaks and protecting the most vulnerable.

 

[Joes Place]

So this is informational with some fun exercises of bad math to boot. @Joes Place will no doubt try to poke holes in this and say it’s not just death but myocarditis blah blah blah.

Clinical Outcomes in Young US Adults Hospitalized With COVID-19

This case series examines the clinical outcomes for young adults hospitalized with COVID-19.

jamanetwork.com

“Among 780 969 adults discharged between April 1, 2020, and June 30, 2020, 63 103 (8.1%) had the ICD-10 code for COVID-19, of whom 3222 (5%) were nonpregnant young adults (age 18-34 years) admitted to 419 US hospitals. The mean (SD) age of this population was 28.3 (4.4) years; 1849 (57.6%) were men and 1838 (57.0%) were Black or Hispanic. Overall, 1187 (36.8%) had obesity, 789 (24.5%) morbid obesity, 588 (18.2%) diabetes, and 519 (16.1%) hypertension (Table).”

Note that this means that of all hospitalized patients between April 1 and June 30th in the group studied the chance of death for an 18-34 year old is .01%.

This doesn’t even take into account the number of those not hospitalized. One really can’t extrapolate to the general population without knowing the overall population of those communities that these 1k plus hospitals serve. But one can easy state I think that it is at least 1 order and likely 2 orders or more, of magnitude lower.

Some amateur (relax it’s just for fun all you actuaries) analysis. I’m not trying to form conclusions with this. Just stabbing at what could be the application to the US as a whole.

One possible way to estimate it might be that there are 1k hospitals in this study and 6k hospitals in the US. That method is clearly fraught with error but just a comparison about what we are talking about here.

Another, possibly closer but more complex, estimate would be this......
There are 36 million hospital admissions annually. So this period is 3 months. So 1/4 of that is 9 million admissions country wide in an average 3 month period, if admissions is a constant which is a big assumption. This was 780k of them. So this sample COULD be representative of 8.6% of the US population assuming, I know it’s massively, that admissions in this group of hospitals is representative of 8.6% of the US. This is 28 million people. So if all these assumptions are close, this is 88 deaths in the 18-34 age group out of 28 million people. That’s .0003%.

The real mathematicians on here can no doubt provide a better analysis than i but the main point is that this study likely can’t ok approximate much of anything and really simply says what it does. That the risk of death in hospitalized patients with Covid in this sample of 18-36 year olds was . 01%

Anyway based on my expert opinion let’s play football!

If someone wants to forward my statistical analysis to the BIG I’ll provide my contact info .

 

[Old_wrestling_fan]

View embedded media

Once again...an article that is couched up to project the most dire COVID scenario...but is not really what the headline makes it out to be. Yes, this lady was a teacher, yes, she was in her classroom within the last 2 weeks...but NO, she was not actively teaching at the school with kids and staff present. She was teaching from home and had no known contact with any students.

 

[goldmom]

Very sad about this young teacher. Have they had success at any level of contact tracing to see where she may have contracted the virus? It says she was last in her classroom two weeks ago but the kids were not, and then she was teaching virtually.

 

[goldmom]

Yup

He finds some crap numbers, and tries to piece together something.
Fails miserably.

Joe in all fairness your link about the teacher really didn't hit the mark either.

 

[CLUB215]

Where does the U of I report student hospitalizations?

 

[Rudolph]

Very sad about this young teacher. Have they had success at any level of contact tracing to see where she may have contracted the virus? It says she was last in her classroom two weeks ago but the kids were not, and then she was teaching virtually.

She was obese. The conversation about this pandemic should have our country's pandemic of obesity—including common maladies associated with obesity such as heart disease and diabetes—front and center.

It could be argued that we don't have football because our country is simply unhealthy.

 

[hawkland14]

Joe in all fairness your link about the teacher really didn't hit the mark either.

I can't believe Joe would ever post something that would mislead HROT.

 

[Fluffles]

40% of young adults are obese which is close to the same percentage of young adults with obesity admitted to the hospital. Since it’s representative of the actual population it’s more difficult to ascertain how well obesity is a predictor of hospitalization among young adults.
—40% obese young adults in general population.
—36.8% of young adults admitted to hospital were obese.

 

[goldmom]

She was obese. The conversation about this pandemic should have our country's pandemic of obesity—including common maladies associated with obesity such as heart disease and diabetes—front and center.

It could be argued that we don't have football because our country is simply unhealthy.

I kind of agree, and again, I do think it's a result of over-processed fast food. Poor nutrition and bad habits. Sugary junk cereals, whole milk mixed with sugary chocolate flavor, white bread, too much fat.

 

[Rudolph]

I kind of agree, and again, I do think it's a result of over-processed fast food. Poor nutrition and bad habits. Sugary junk cereals, whole milk mixed with sugary chocolate flavor, white bread, too much fat.

It's much bigger than that. It became profitable to change our relationship with food, the way we produce it, market it, and consume it. It destroys both the earth from which the products are produced to the people to which the products are sold.

 

[Old_wrestling_fan]

She was obese. The conversation about this pandemic should have our country's pandemic of obesity—including common maladies associated with obesity such as heart disease and diabetes—front and center.

It could be argued that we don't have football because our country is simply unhealthy.

While I do agree with the idea that way, way too many people are overweight in our society...I also question the validity of the BMI table. Speaking only for myself...when I was in triathlete shape, I still was overweight per the BMI table as I recall. If not in the obese range, I was well above where the chart said I should be per my height.

I was also lifting actively during this time period and I am sure that I had much more muscle density/content than the average guy. I have heard several others say similar things. Is the BMI really a good indicator?

 

[Hendy hawk]

I think it's far more prevalent than you might realize. The differences in what the kids look like now versus just 20 years ago are striking.

Yep, junk food and internet games.
Son got sick and tired of is kids doing this so he canceled tv and took away the I pods.
Told them to get outside and find something to do.
They made a water slip & slide and had a ball all summer.
Also got into raising chickens and selling eggs to local restaurants.

 

[Fluffles]

While I do agree with the idea that way, way too many people are overweight in our society...I also question the validity of the BMI table. Speaking only for myself...when I was in triathlete shape, I still was overweight per the BMI table as I recall. If not in the obese range, I was well above where the chart said I should be per my height.

I was also lifting actively during this time period and I am sure that I had much more muscle density/content than the average guy. I have heard several others say similar things. Is the BMI really a good indicator?

BMI isn’t a great measure for health. It’s a 200 year old archaic height/weight calculation that has lost its usefulness but remains a mainstay in medicine and as a risk rubric for insurance companies. It in no way measures the LBM/fat mass in an individual and it’s continued use means doctors don’t feel the need to use more scientifically sound methods to measure fat mass. It’s physiologically flawed and statistically illogical, the equivalence of junk science. Severely underweight and morbidly obese are pretty clear without a BMI measurement but ascertaining risk in the more incremental middle ranges of BMI is, frankly, not scientifically prudent. Even a 3 point Jackson Pollock caliper test would be better but takes more time.

 

[Joes Place]

California University of Pennsylvania defensive tackle Jamain Stephens dies at age 20

Stephens was a business administration major and defensive lineman for the Division II school

www.cbssports.com

Jamain Stephens, a football player at Division II California University of Pennsylvania, died Tuesday. The Cal U athletic department confirmed Stephens' death in a statement. A Facebook post from Stephens' high school alma mater on Tuesday initially attributed his death to complications of COVID-19, but Central Catholic High School in Pittsburgh clarified Wednesday that it "mistakenly attributed his death without official confirmation on cause," according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

Stephens' father, Jamain Stephens Sr., told Sports Illustrated that the family is "not sure of the truth." Stephens had reportedly informed friends that he'd tested positive for COVID-19 just one week before his death.

"Jamain was such a wonderful student with a smile on his face every time you saw him," Cal U athletic director Karen Hjerpe said. "His personality was contagious and he made such a positive impact on everyone he met."

Stephens, 20, played in 32 games over three seasons. He was a business administration major and set to be a senior defensive lineman on the team this season. His father, also named Jamain, played in the NFL as an offensive lineman from 1996 to 2003.

Cal U's conference, the Pennsylvania State Athletic Conference, suspended all competition for the fall semester in July in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Division II Council followed up in August by canceling fall sports championships.

The NCAA shared a message of condolences on Tuesday. "We join Cal U in mourning the loss of Jamain Stephens," read a tweet from the NCAA. "Our thoughts are with his family, friends and teammates during this time."

On D-II Player Jamain Stephens's Life and Unexpected Death

Jamain Stephens, a defensive lineman for California University of Pennsylvania, died Tuesday at the age of 20. The cause of death remains uncertain.

www.si.com

 

[haw-key]

Yup

He finds some crap numbers, and tries to piece together something.
Fails miserably.

Dude you read my reply? I sent the link for people to review. Then i had some basic fun with the numbers. For fun. It clearly states that. I’m not proposing it is data. Do you even have a sense of humor old man? Why don’t you go back to collecting SS.....

The real take away is easy.And well known. But it needs to be stated over and over. Serious illness and death are exceedingly rare in the young. Exceedingly.

@torbee. If everyone knows this info why do we have the BIG canceling football yet wanting to get people back on campus and in dorm contracts before deciding to convert to online?

 

[ft254]

A lifetime of processed fast food is truly the devil.

Has a lot to do with it.

 

[Joes Place]

Dude you read my reply? I sent the link for people to review. Then i had some basic fun with the numbers. For fun.

Sure, Jan.